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The new normal in Nevada: Reid and Angle tied

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 27th, 2010 at 12:55 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Angle Reid

When Sharron Angle came out of the Republican primary in Nevada, oddly enough she was vulnerable. She got no unity bounce, instead taking a stream of attacks from Republicans nationwide. As a result, Harry Reid went on the air for the knockout.

He didn’t get it. Even the new Mason Dixon/LVRJ poll has stabilized.

That poll has never been friendly to Angle, even before the primary, so when it gives her good news, that’s very good news for her. She’d been dropping in that poll as well as others, and Reid had been rising, so it’s good for her that it’s now nearly tied: Reid 45, Angle 44 (MoE 4). Yes, being behind usually isn’t good news for a candidate who once led for months, but when Mason Dixon had her down 7 at one point, this is solid movement in her direction.

In fact, Rasmussen last week showed the same thing, only without the usual Mason Dixon tilt against Angle: Angle 50, Reid 48 (MoE 4). This is also a four point swing in her direction from Rasmussen’s previous lead for Reid of 2.

So yes, I definitely conclude that Harry Reid’s attempt for the knockout on Sharron Angle has failed. He got a quick peak in the polls, but now he’s gotten to the point of diminishing returns, and the polls are settling in to a new normal: even. It’s almost as though Angle got an inverse primary bounce, as GOPers unhappy with her victory turned on her, but eventually that faded as other primaries attracted national attention.

Just the fact that challenger Angle is even with Majority Leader Reid by default could be great news for her. Reid, as an incumbent Democrat in a state carried by his party’s President and holding the top position in his party’s caucus, ought to be able to win without difficulty, but he’s only even. As long as Angle can get the money to push back when it counts, she’s right where she needs to be. Greg Sargent seems to agree, as well.

Though that fundraising Angle needs is not a sure thing for a candidate who’s been picked on by her own party like Angle has, the TEA party that secured Angle the primary to begin with has managed surprising results this year. Funding Angle could be one of them. It seems easier to steer grassroots funding to needy Senate candidates than it is for any other race in an off year, as they have great prominence (unlike candidates for the House) and national urgency (unlike candidates for Governor).

One final note: if you want to see the Review-Journal’s agenda in its continued posting on this topic, just see their picture pair and cringe.

From Unlikely Voter

PS RedStaters: Here’s where you can give to Sharron Angle.

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COMMENTS

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  • rdelbov

    don’t make it right. Angle has two big things going for her.

    1. I Sandoval coasts over Rory Reid and once you get in the mood to vote against one Reid maybe its easier to vote against two.

    2. Its going to be all about turnout this year in Nevada. I think the large teaparty group in Nevada makes a difference. You got several thousand volunteers getting family/friends/neighbors/co-workers to vote for Angle. You can’t always catch that in a poll.

    Its passion and people in 2010

  • earlgrey

    The polling in AK didn’t put Miller this close to Murkowski, did it? All along I have been clinging to the hope that the likely voter model will be really difficult to get right this year because of the extremes of this agenda.

    I would also like to see the MSM crumble as they are getting more and more nasty in their coverage. It woudl be great to see these so called journalists lose their grip on middle America, but alas they will be the last to know when that happens.

  • rdelbov

    stuff I know. One more time. Here is a list of states where the GOP apparently set a midterm turnout record for a primary in 2010

    Maine-South Carolina-Georgia-Floria-Alabama-Tennessee-Kentucky-Indiana-Michigan-Missouri-Kansas-Oklahoma-New Mexico-Texas-Arizona-Nevada-Wyoming-Alaska plus Utah and Colorado.

    The GOP is turning out. Look at stats for this weekend with the LA & WV primaries. I am not sure what will happen but the trend has been for the GOP to turn out.

  • Dan McLaughlin

    actually makes Reid look like a doofus, whereas it just makes Angle look old.

  • Vegas_Rick

    Every ad says the same thing. Sharon Angle is too extreme. It’s getting very tiring for EVERYONE. Not just conservatives. Angle’s ads are good, but few and far between.

    If Reid doesn’t come up with a new message and Angle can ramp it up a bit, she should do fine.

    Harry is truely hated in this state. Although the front page of the Las Vegas Revirew Journal has a poll today showing that voters for BOTH parties wish they had a different candidate.

    Many look at this as a choice between the greater and lesser evil. Not much choice, then, as Reid is surely the greater evil.

  • pdawk

    66% of Angle voters regret her nomination yet she is still essentially tied with Reid. That is unbelievable on every level. If this is within 3 points Angle will win just from the guaranteed anti-Reid votes that seemingly will come out in droves.

  • IJB

    Reid has been *stuck* at 45% for months and *months* now.

    IOW, Reid’s numbers HAVE NOT CHANGED over the entire course of this race.

    Angle’s numbers jump around, but Reid’s numbers are frozen.

    So, let me make this easy for everyone: Reid is the incumbent – if his numbers stay at 45% through the next two months, HE WILL LOSE. Period. End of story.

    There’s no ambiguity here – if Reid can’t get his numbers up above 45% (and he hasn’t been able to for moths), in the end he WILL lose. It’s just that simple.

  • wannabeanncoulter

    66% of Angle voters regret her nomination yet she is still essentially tied with Reid.

    Really, don’t look for logic where you’re not going to find it. And NEVER appeal to the logic of voters — unless you really really really want a bad headache.

    Angle is going to be wonderful to behold in the Senate. Can’t wait.

  • bobojake

    Nevadans for once can tell the reids they don’t want another reid anywhere near the Federal and State Government.
    A few easy questions.
    1. Are you better off now then 4 years ago before reid, obama and pelosi passed their first big fraudulent energy bill???????
    2. Are you living in the same house you was 4 years ago,????
    3. Do you have the same or better job then you did 4 years ago?????
    4. Have you suffered through foreclosure on your house because of dodd, frank, obama, raines, rahm emmanuel, ried, pelosi, schumer, waters and rangel freddi-fanni-banking scandal????????????
    5. Does the gasoline to get you to work cost you more due to reid, obama and pelosi fraudulent energy bill 4 years ago and 3 more since??????
    6. Does it cost you more to heat and cool your house because of the 4(four) fraudulent energy bills raising the price of electricity, natural gas and fuel oil????
    7. Does it bother you when the President of the USA Tell Tourist not to come to Las Vegas, your main business not once but twice in the last 18 months.??????
    8. Do you have neighbors and friends that have lost their jobs and their homes due to the polices of reid, obama and pelosi????
    God Bless you in Nevada and see you at the polls on NOV 2nd.
    Vote for a change to save America Vote Angle Vote NO on reids get a 2fer. Stop 2 of the reids on NOV 2nd

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    He was barely clinging to 40 for a while.

    He did get a surge… but he’s peaked.

  • IJB

    There has been *slight* movement in the Mason Dixon/LVRJ polls over the year – Reid started at about 42% at year’s start, and has gotten them to ~45% fairly consistently in Mason Dixon/LVRJ’s polls over the summer.

    You’re right – if you look at other polls, esp. the RCP Average, Reid’s numbers have ‘spiked’ recently (and then seemed to have fallen off a little even more recently).

    But that hasn’t happened if you look just at Mason Dixon/LVRJ’s numbers – in Mason Dixon/LVRJ, Reid has *never* gotten over 45%.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • IJB

    According toJim Geraghty.

    That’s gotta hurt!

    I’d rather they\ NRA actually endorsed Angle.
    But Reid really *needed* this endorsement…

    Heh.

  • tngal

    The reason NRA says no endorsement for Reid is the confirmations of both Kagen and Sotomayer to SCOTUS. Based on these two appointments they are apparently concerned about the future of the 2nd amend.

    Unfortunately, the group was told months ago don’t back this guy, and all we heard out of them were exuses. A lot of pressure was put on them by members (now former members) .and they’re just now getting around to saying “no” and then place the reasoning on the recent judges! Too little too late, too bad. An endorsement FOR Angle and a few other conservatives (not just incumbants) MIGHT get their numbers back up. But now they know we’re watching every move they make.

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

  • IJB

    And, on the Reid end, this is more bad news in about a 2 week period where he hasn’t gotten any good news.

    On the NRA end, 2nd Amendment activists are going to have to look closely at recent NRA behavior, and decide for themselves what to do about it…

  • SteveLA

    My last trip to Vegas, early in the summer, the town was dead, even for summer. Tourism down, gambling down, and worst of the worst, some buffets closed down at State Line.

    Horrible Harry is getting slammed by people in Nevada who are: out of work, sitting in homes with underwater prices, being effected by the crashed economy and other pocket book issues.

    If Horrible Harry pulls this one out, it will be over promises and actions on economic issues, nothing more nothing less. I will not be surprised to see King Obama do something to help the economy in the Silver State late in the game which will tip the balance.

  • tngal

    But I don’t think he’s losing sleep over it. I’m not sure how much an NRA endorsement pushed the dems to vote for him. All of our dems here claim their for 2nd amend rights. Reid only wanted their endorsement to appeal to some left leaning mods, but I don’t think he has those anymore. Honestly, if all you need to get an NRA endorsement is get funding for a gun range, then Becker’s cat could get it.

  • Kyle-MI

    Reid dropped a ton of money on very effective ads. If I didn’t know better, I would be worried about Angle. He has been defining Angle before she could defend herself (and she has only been doing so recently). Reid and the media have been controlling the debate, making it about Angle’s personality instead of issues. The majority of NV voters agree with Angle on the issues. Unfortunately Reid has a ton of more money to spend and top of the line campaign staff.

    Despite all of this, the best he can accomplish so far is a tie. Now that Angle has begun to fight back, the numbers are turning.

    At worst to the GOP, Reid will be sucking up money that could be spent on other races.

  • spreadout

    That’s hilarious at best. Almost all polls for a month have been stable Reid +1 or Reid +2. That Reid +7 poll was what we call and outlier. If you are a pollster, 1 in 1000 times, you are going to put a flat wrong poll out there. (maybe too many people were surveyed from Las Vegas, and not enough from Angle’s base in the north) And Jon Ralston via his twitter feed said GOPers think Angle is off by a few points.

    We need to keep giving to Angle so she can catch up to Reid in cash. I recently gave her $250. It’s really a shame that nobody gave her much money before the primary, so she could define Reid early, and not the other way around. After visiting Reno this year, everybody is blaming Reid. They just don’t know enough good stuff about Angle. I may phone canvass for her a little bit later in the year to get her message out.

  • spreadout

    does anybody know how to link to twitter?

    Jon Ralston says this:

    “Based on what I am picking up from insiders, even GOPers think Mason-Dixon is off by a few points in GOP favor. Angle down more, Rory less.”

    Do we trust him?

  • Kyle-MI

    In case I wasn’t clear. I support Angle and have given to her, but you need to give the devil his due. Do not underestimate Reid or his campaign staff. He has done the best with a bad political situation. In the end I hope he falls short, but I am nervous.

  • IJB

    I think his biases in this whole thing have been clear from Day 1.

    Also, I don’t put it past elements in the NV GOP who don’t like Angle to be feeding Ralston a skewed picture of the situation that furthers their interests…

  • IJB

    This is inconclusive on that question (need more data!…), but it does seem to imply that any ‘upward’ movement on Reid’s part has stalled recently.

    It also would seem to track with your point that Reid is about +1 or +2 right now.

    On my end, this puts him at about 47% – that maybe puts Reid close enough to pulling this out, though 48-49% would be better for his chances, and any further erosion below 47% would really put the ‘hurt’ on his chances of pulling this race out…

    Bottom line: If I’m Angle, considering the nature of this race (running against a sitting majority leader), I’d be pretty happy with my chances at this point in the race.

    (P.S. You know what would be instructive here? – Reviewing the polling from Thune’s race vs. Daschle in 2004. It looks like there wasn’t as much polling done in that race (SD is harder to poll…) – but, a quick look over that page would seem to indicate the Daschle was probably slightly ahead (and right around 50%) at this same point in the race. In Sept. of 2004, it looks like the race moved more towards a Tie between Thune and Daschle (with both probably around 48-49%). So that’s what Angle needs to see over the next month…)

  • charity101

    So, the NRA sends us an email that they will not be endorsing Harry Reid. But do they say they’ll be endorsing Sharon Angle who has an A+ rating with the NRA …NO. My husband calls and asks “where is the Angle endorsement?” ….errr, ummm, dunno.

    Additionally, Rick Scott WON the Republican Nomination for Governor in Florida. The NRA has yet to endorse Scott who is Pro-2nd Amendment yet has NO ties to lobbyists.

    Hunters, Fishermen & pro-2nd Amendment guys …you need to PUMMEL the NRA with emails & phone calls to support & endorse these guys. The NRA, in my opinion, has been infiltrated by Progressives. NEED TO STEP IT UP & HAMMER these Almighty Lobbyists.

  • SIConservative

    Does anyone know the order in which races appear on the ballot? In a race this close, it could be pivotal. If the race for Governor is first and the race for Senate is second, the Sandoval votes are more likely to carry over to Angle. If there are offices in between, ballot splitting, either Sandoval/Reid or Sandoval/None of the Above, is much more likely.

  • dwander

    IJB, that is a great idea. I remember watching that historic race and being amazed by the reports from a blog in SD. They had a lot of great information and I believe were instrumental in helping Thune get elected.

  • dambama

    Sharron Angle is a great replacement for Harry.

    Any time you get a candidate who professes strong support for the Constitution they are labeled ?too conservative?, what BS.

    Sharron Angle is a guaranteed vote for fiscal sanity.

    Harry Reid is a guaranteed vote for more big government.

    Sharron Angle is a guaranteed vote for repealing Obamacare

    Harry Reid is a guaranteed vote for more Obamacare and government control of healthcare.

    Sharron Angle is a guaranteed NO vote for higher taxes.

    Harry Reid is a guaranteed YES vote for the biggest tax hike in history.

    Sharron Angle is a guaranteed NO vote on ?Cap and Trade?

    Harry Reid is a guaranteed YES vote for ?Cap and Trade?,and fights all energy development in America.

    Any one who cannot openly support Sharron Angle, knowing the above, is a fool.

    Anyone who votes for Harry Reid or ?none of the above? is voting to continue on this path of economic destruction.

    I do not understand how Harry is even still in this race!

    Wake up Nevada!

  • dambama

    In these close races the NRA can help. If they do not actively support these new “TEA Party” candidates then they will NEVER get my support.

    Wake up NRA, we need you NOW!

  • dambama

    Any doubts voters have is being driven by negative attacks by Harry the Horrible. He has been relentless in his lying, mischaracterization of Sharron Angle.

    Sharron is one of the strongest Constitutional Conservatives running . She deserves our unwavering support.

    Send her a contribution or we will get stuck with 6 more years of Harry Reid.

  • rec0n

    66% of Angle voters regret her nomination yet she is still essentially tied with Reid.

    I don’t understand that, frankly. I did the vetting for her in my grassroots group and I love the woman. She needs money to get her message out – she’d be good for #nvsen AND the country.