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Gallup: Generic ballot shows record Republican lead

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 30th, 2010 at 05:30 PM  | 

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House

I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable.

But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge than even today’s Rasmussen’s GOP +6 (notwithstanding the alleged House Effect of the latter).

This Gallup result is so large, I had to see what it shows in the Swingometer. As always, I boil it down to two party results. In 2008 we had a 56 D – 44 R split, and this Gallup simplifies to a 45 D – 55 R split. So the swing is from a D+12 to an R+10, or a 22 point swing.

So right now, that means Gallup of all polls, using Registered Voters, is projecting in the Swingometer a 60 seat Republican gain for a 238 R-197 D majority. The last time an election took the Democrats that low was the election of 1946, saith Wikipedia. Election night in 2004 took them to 202 for the second lowest.

Rasmussen today, by contrast, shows only a 20 point swing, a 57 seat Republican gain, and a 235 R – 200 D majority, still lower than an election since Truman has taken the House Democrats. If I then take the mean of these two and double weight the Rasmussen Likely Voter poll, I get R+58, the new projection.

From Unlikely Voter.

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  • JadedByPolitics

    …

  • student

    Perhaps if this trend continues we can get enough of a Republican majority in the House that combined with a Republican majority in the Senate and acquiescence by Democrats not wishing to join their extinct colleagues from the 2010 election that we can repeal Obama’s destructive transgressions against America and set the country straight – and even better to do so with a Republican party where the herd of RINOs has been substantially cleared. Ah, one can dream :-)

  • tomato

    I predict the polls will bottom out for Dems come October. Reasons, many of us had made up our minds and feeling election fatigue not happening soon enough. About 10 days before election Tuesday, the MSM will cheer how Obama is “coming back”. But it won’t come back anywhere with significance.

    There are independents who consider themselves savvy for two weeks in a year there is an election. They want to be made to feel important. They’ll be an even 50/50 split with and against Obama. The MSM will report the indies are “coming back”.

    There will be last minute appeals to give ObamaCare a chance because it benefits everyone but you.

  • tomato

    I predict an overwhelming election tide. The MSM won’t know what to do with the shock. The major outlets will have the following themes.

    FoxNews: “America strikes back”, implying Obama as “The Empire”
    CNN: “What went wrong with America?”
    MSNBC: Crying, lots of crying.
    ABC: “The Tea Party has taken America”
    NBC: “The Tea Party has taken America”
    CBS: “The Tea Party has taken America”
    USAToday: “Obama celebrates election day victories” (P.S. there aren’t any)

  • Oz

    The downside is they would want to know immeadiately why we hadn’t repealed healthcare.

    We need a tough nuts president in 2012 plus another dozen senate seats to go with it.

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins
  • IJB

    “A Dangerously Radical Turn In American Politics”, or some such thing.

    Meanwhile, The NY Times will go with something like “Racism Is Awakened Across America”.

  • Achance
  • mikedaire

    that the MSM will couch the return to reason as a rise in racism, a backlash of white America against a black president. I can hear Frank Rich sharpening his pencil now…

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    even if we got control of both houses, not likely, but possible. you would then have to actually count on Elected Republicans to find some balls and do something radical, like repeal.

    I have not seen much of anything resembling courage since Newt Gingrich was run out of DC.

  • WIBadger

    Dems numbers where in the House after the ’94 election would you ? For some reason I thought they much lower than the numbers you gave above.

    IMHO, this sort of thing is nice to read about but its still too early to get happy. The only poll that counts is the one on Nov 2 and a lot can still happen between now and then.

    Stay focused folks (just sayin….) :)

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    anything over what we need to pick up the house it will be a major major victory.

    What gives me the most hope is that the guys we have in the race now, tend to be a lot more conesrvative than the older bunch of politicians who ran last time.

  • libertyatstake

    Take that to the nearest bank that hasn’t been nationalized yet.

    http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
    “Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”

  • JadedByPolitics

    nor enough to pass the repeal in the Senate however the divided government that would prevail would be an EYE OPENER to Americans who will find that veto after veto from obama would be defunding the government. If you though Newt paid a heavy price for the government shut-down obama and the rest of the Democrats will pay in 2012 for the same!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think Gallup underprojected 1994 a bit, but I don?t have a Swingometer for 1992-1994 handy.

  • IJB

    …204 seats after the election.

    However, I’m not sure if that’s just from the election results, or if 204 was the number *after* the post-election party-switches. I want to say it was the former, though.

    (Checking…) Yes, that’s right – after the party switches, the Dems went down to 198 seats. That’s the lowest number of seats the Dem have held in the House since 1947-49…

  • IJB

    …But if there’s a ‘late break’ to the GOP in the Generic Ballot, or if Dem support/enthusiasm crashes before the election (and the latter, incidentally, I think is quite likely…), it is quite possible the numbers could climb to +70-80, or even more.

    (At the other end, I pretty much think +40 is about the *minimum* to expect, based on current polling numbers and trends…)

  • IJB

    So, let’s use Neil’s Gallup results of a two-party swing of +22 (i.e. one-party R ‘swing’ of R+11), and plug it into The Swingometer:

    Your result R+60 seats.

    However, here’s what the Swingometer is *missing* using its simple analysis:

    OPEN SEATS:
    AR-01 (likely R)
    AR-02 (leaning R)
    IN-08 (leaning R)
    MA-10 (leaning D(?))
    MI-01 (toss-up)
    TN-08 (leaning R)
    WA-03 (likely R (based on ‘jungle’ primary results)

    UNEXPECTEDLY ‘ENDANGERED’ DEM INCUMBENTS:
    FL-02 (toss-up)
    IL-11 (leaning R)
    IL-17 (toss-up(?))
    MO-04 (toss-up)
    ND-AL (leaning R)
    NY-20 (toss-up(?))
    SC-05 (toss-up)
    SD-AL (leaning R)
    VA-09 (leaning D(?))
    WA-02 (leaning D(?))

    A FEW OTHER CHANCES:
    CO-03
    CO-07
    FL-22
    NC-02
    NC-07
    NC-11
    WI-03
    etc.

    But, of course, The Swingometer also takes down a few Dems that may hold on – e.g. ID-01 (Minnick), TX-27 (Ortiz)(?).

    BOTTOM LINE: As Neil is the first to admit, there is real reason to think that The Swingometer is actually *under-counting* GOP gains.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Recruitment matters and Swingometer can’t take it into account. Ditto the national funding and strategic spending situations.

  • rbdwiggins

    The GOP now leads in every currently held Republican seat, including seats once considered vulnerable: Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio and New Hampshire.

    Republicans hold solid leads: Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.

    Republicans hold a narrow lead: Colorado and Washington.

    The race is essentially tied: Illinois, Nevada and Wisconsin.

    Vulnerable seats where Democrats hold rapidly shrinking leads: California, Connecticut and West Virginia.

    Gillibrand can be defeated: New York.

  • rdelbov

    like its 2006 or 1986. Candidates still need more money-more calls need to be made–talk to more people–

    We got it make happen. Don’t then +11 but then we have one more chance to salvage a win

    I am writting more checks this week

  • itsjoanne

    This was supposed to be a landslide for Manchin. And 70% of WV voters disapprove of Obama,

    Manchin 48% Raese 42%

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/west_virginia/election_2010_west_virginia_senate_special_election

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    but Gallup came first. :)

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    Link for those who can’t view embedded video.

  • itsjoanne

    Machin was considered a slam dunk. With 70% of WV disapproving of Obama and a similar number against Obamacare, I don’t see how Manchin has much room to grow.

    In addition, we can likely assume Raese has little name recognition, and Machin has 100%. Once voters get to know Raese his poll numbers should go up accordingly.

    WV could be going red in November. :)

  • spreadout

    Gallup’s poll jumps around a ton. I don’t believe anything unless there is a trend. Let’s hope it sticks in the 8-10 range or goes up and other pollsters confirm.

  • spreadout

    I’m just very cautious.

  • JoeG

    Not only should the dems be in for a shock, the old guard Republicans should be too.

    We’re not doing this to put the people that screwed up 2006 back in power.

  • JoeG

    Wyden holds a very comfortable lead according to the few polls run.

    But we have several other races, including the governor, where the democrat candidate stinks so bad that I hope many dems just stay home.

    It could be wishful thinking; but then again if this is a wave it’s not impossible.

  • Adjoran

    Democrats are going to have to run hard away from Obama, Pelosi, and Reid if they want to keep their seats.

    Pelosi allowed the “Blue Dogs” to vote against her whenever she could afford to spare their votes, but this was obvious and reported at the time, and their opponents should be screaming from the rooftops that when Nancy needs them, they don’t stray.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Very rare for a Dem this year but he’s actually gaining in the polls.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    Neil is right. I am by nature the most pessimistic guy around, but even I am very hopeful now about November.

  • davesinsanantonio

    to de-fund all the Lib passed nonsense. Then all they have to do is let Obummer take the blame for shutting down the government if he vetoes the budget. De-fund then repeal.

  • dudette

    to get enough senators to filibster or vote DOWN any more SCOTUS candidates. We can’t have anymore of Kagan or Sodamayor. also shelve his appellategan and W choices like they did to W, we have to play as mean as the Dems did w/reagan and bush

  • dudette

    ing you know what i mean

  • IJB

    …And that’s Rasumussen.

    IOW, I’m not going to put any stock in Wyden’s “bump” from a single poll, unless a later Ras poll confirms it, or some other polling firm’s poll confirms it. (More likely the former, as I don’t expect anyone else to poll OR this cycle…)

  • barleycorn

    is that 2 years later the GOP lost 75 seats and were right back in the minority again.

    As important as winning this November is, what the Republicans in Congress do with that power is far more important.

  • dambama

    They are getting better and better at stealing elections since they failed in Bush v Gore. In fact many of their dimmer bulbs still think Gore won, haha.

    Obama’s only Hope in 2012 will be a measure of SEIU and “?” formerly known as “ACORNs” success at voter fraud and intimidation.

  • spreadout

    But the Gallup poll has jumped around from R+7, to R+3, to R+10. What does that tell you? Republicans are going to gain seats, but that poll jumps around way too much to jump to make any hay out of R+10. Who knows? The next poll might be R+15, or R+4?

  • tex41lb

    Obama relgated to Lincoln bedroom.

    or

    Michael pride in America insulted by ungrateful nation

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ORsen has gone from Wyden+13 to Wyden+18 in SUSA, and from Wyden+14 to Wyden+29 in RR.

    It’s disappointing to me with Dudley doing so well there, but it is what it is.

  • MF

    I agree that we should hope for enough Senators to vote down any more of the horrible SCOTUS candidates that Obama might nominate. However, a filibuster is most likely out of the question (they don’t want to use it – takes too much guts that they don’t have), and we still have the squish twins from ME, Linsey Grahamnesty, and a bunch of others who want to play nice.

    Face it, the Rs don’t play down and dirty to anywhere near the same extent the Ds do.

  • gemimail

    The key part is that Gallup using a likely voter sample had the Republicans at plus 7 in 1994 on the generic congressional ballot, the highest recorded in midterm elections since data was first collected in 1950. The Republicans actually got 53.5% of the two party vote in 1994 which in turn led to a 231 to 204 Congress in favor of Republicans.

    In 2002, Gallup had a 6 point edge for the Republicans which led to a 52.4% of the two party vote and another 231 to 204 seat advantage. The point is that anything over a 2 point edge in the Gallup likely voter generic polls leads to a Republican House. See how this is so at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/24493/Election-Polls-Accuracy-Record-Midterm-Congressional-Elections.aspx and then at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/124010/generic-ballot-provides-clues-2010-vote.aspx.

    For Gallup to show 10 points in favor of the Republicans using a registered voter instead of a likely voter sample means you can forget about a 1994 type blowout for the Republicans. You can even forget about 1946 as well and the resulting 246 to 188 Congress for the Republicans.

    A +10 for the Republicans translates to a 255 to 180 House and a 77 seat net gain. The last time the Republicans had that many seats was after the 1928 election. The last time the Republicans gained more than 77 net seats was in 1938 when they gained 81. For how the generic ballot figure translates to seats in the House, see: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=496&Itemid=1347.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s why I very carefully mentioned “election night” when listing what I said above.

    A bunch of those party switches were crass opportunism and not reflective of the national mood at all.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Heck, *Nobody* has those kind of coattails anymore.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I mean, if they’re rigging elections then the rigging was already there in 2008 and that’s baked into the Swingometer.

    I’m not saying there was systematic fraud, but if the kind of fraud you’re talking about existed, it’s baked into the Swingometer.

  • dambama

    .

    I am sending contributions to Constitutional Conservatives running in the Republican Party. You cannot find them in the democrat party and voting 3rd Party is a waste. Here are candidates I’ve supported in the last month or so:

    All solid Conservatives

    Brian Sandoval brian@briansandoval.com http://www.briansandoval.com/
    Sharron Angle
    Djou for Hawaii
    Damon Dunn treasurerlawler@sbcglobal.net http://www.damondunn.com/
    Joe Miller for US Senate info@joemiller.us
    Scott Brown http://www.brownforussenate.com/
    Star Parker http://www.starparkerforcongress.com/
    Ken Buck for Colorado http://kenbuck.com/
    JD Hayworth 2010
    http://www.faulknerforcongress.com/

    Please send them a contribution if you can.

    .

  • dambama

    Scott Brown is hardly a solid Conservative but better than a Kennedy, I guess.

    Also the missing websites:

    Sharron Angle
    Djou for Hawaii

  • vandalii

    …would switch sides of the aisle which causes a whole ‘nother screaming tantrum by progressives.