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PPP: Miller, Murkowski both lead general

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 30th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Miller McAdams

Public Policy Polling jumped out ahead to poll the Alaska Senate race even as Republican Lisa Murkowski tries to drag out her primary defeat at the hands of Joe Miller. PPP also checked up on what might happen if Murkowski somehow were able to dislodge the Libertarian nominee and take that party’s line on the ballot in November.

I didn’t have this poll in my hands when I projected Miller at 99%, down from my 99.9% projection for Murkowski. It looks like I was awfully close though, even before Republicans have a chance to unite after the primary, because PPP has Miller ahead of Democrat Scott McAdams 47-39 (MoE 2.7), as that very low MoE results in my only giving McAdams a 7% chance of being ahead per this poll.

PPP also has Murkowski ahead of McAdams 60-28, and Miller ahead of the hypothetical three way race Miller 38-Murkowski 34-McAdams 22. In no scenario does the Democrat lead, and he comes in last in the three way.

Alaska is full of characters, though: PPP has “Independent/Other” party ID on top at 42% to 38% Republican and 20% Democrat.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • spreadout

    in mind that after a very divisive lost for Murkowski, her voters are saying they will vote for McAdams. But as the election grows near, a lot of them will see their positions align more with Miller.

    And Neil, what exactly is wrong with the Independent/Other party ID on top? 2008 had it at 43/37/20 Independent/Republican/Democrat. Most Alaska voters are Independent conservatives.

  • izoneguy

    Alaska Libertarians to Sen. Murkowski: No Thank You!

    http://biggovernment.com/publius/2010/08/30/alaska-libertarians-to-sen-murkowski-no-thank-you/

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • spreadout

    Bad wording on my part.

    You said: “Alaska is full of characters, though”

    My point is how are Independents on top “a character” when they are the leading party ID in past elections? But apologies if I misinterpreted that.

  • izoneguy

    Libertarians to Murkowski: No Dice

    http://community.adn.com/adn/node/152953#ixzz0y6yGwmSk

  • rdelbov

    I am very skeptical of this poll. Its a classic PPP things look kinda right but its off by 5 to 10%

    1. The voters claim they voted for McCain by 55%-39% in this poll. The actuall numbers in 2008 was 60%McCain 38% Obama. This poll is showing a shift of about 6% to Obama. Exactly how many polls are showing a democratic or Obama surge in 2010? I have not seen one yet.

    2. 2008 was a better year for democrats then in 2006–we should even more of a GOP surge this year.

    3. Ditto for ideological mix in this poll. We should see many more conservtives then moderates this year. A lot of moderates are leaning harder to the GOP except in this poll.

    So I would Miller’s number 5% or so upward just based on the party ID & on the McCain vote in this poll.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Alaskans are weird. :)

  • emaberk

    who accomulated so many pork projects for Alaska that even Alaskans couldn’t take it. Miller will put an end to all that. We can all thank Sarah for this victory!

  • Scope

    and if I am not mistaken that is illegal. Of course you still have Randy Ruderich as the GOP Chair in AK, and, he hasn’t always been willing to play by the rules. He probably hates Palin, more than Achance, if that’s possible, as she ratted him out for doing illegal Republican party duties in his public office. He also hates Miller because Miller tried to unseat him as GOP Chair. He had every reason to try to help Murkowski, no matter what it took. I thought it was a Progressive rule that “the end justifies the means.”

    http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/105271/

    I like when the article’s author says that the Miller Murkowski battle is going to result in a civil war between the Alaska Republicans, and, that if Murkowski manages a win, the voters across the country will be outraged, as it will appear that Murkowski stole the election.

    I think the best observation is that Murkowski just ran a bad campaign, and underestimated her opponent.

    Buy more popcorn, this ain’t goin’ away fast.

  • spreadout

    All of these points are reasonable. And I wondered about some of them. So let me play devil’s advocate and examine the only possible explanations for these things.

    Alaska is hard to poll and the enthusiasm there for Sarah Palin in 2008 might have increased Republican turnout then. And turning back to a more conservative kind of things, it is well known PPP wants to do away with Richard Burr, and constantly have more Democratic samples in their own North Carolina.

    Now obviously, you can’t base “everything” off the 2008 electorate. But in 2008, moderates had an 8 point advantage. Don’t forget, Alaska loved their earmarks which is why they sent Ted Stevens, Don Young, and Mark Begich to Congress. And earmarks can hardly be considered “conservative” With conservatives having the advantage this year, does a two point spread for moderates (Down from 8) sound reasonable? Maybe, maybe not.

    So my conclusions would probably be this poll is skewed by 2-4 points in favor of the moderates/Democrats. But not a whole lot.

  • spreadout

    emoticon took the place of 8.

  • rdelbov

    In fact in states like CO–CT-DE-MN-MA there are conventions/caucuses that are held to determine the designated party choice for the Republican party. So say Buck in CO was the designated choice of the republican convention this year. He was listed on the party site and some party leaders (not all) either encouraged voters to for the party designated choice or not.

    Here in TN the republican party has make a limited number of party endorsements on the local level. Come 2012 Bob Corker will be viewed by the Shelby county republican party as its candidate for election. That’s the way incumbents are viewed. There are may be a few minor candidates against Corker but his picture is up on the wall and he is the man for 2012.

    Every state and local office GOP will have an incumbent senator or congressman or Governor pictured on their website and in their office.

    That being said I do not know what the Alaskan GOP party has in its bylaws as it relates to endorsements. I suspect that during the glory years the republican party was viewed a tool for the re-election of the team of Stevens/Young/Murkowski. That’s what parties do. That being said I would surprised to see alot of primary activity done out of the local GOP offices. Might not be illegal but usually the local party does GE stuff.

  • Return to Revolution

    With Murkowski getting such a huge % against the democrat, how can Miller be ahead in the three way? Especially when the democrat is pretty consistently unpopular.

  • trapperjohn

    It is certainly against party rules…if that means anything to the party.

  • rdelbov

    shapes up quickly like the Florida three way.

    The republican gets around 45% of the total–the loyal GOP types plus most of the conservatives plus the indies wanting change. while the rest ends up split among the democrat/indie. The libeterians bailing on Murkowski pretty means, however, that it will be Joe or Murkowski against the democrat.

    I am thinking Joe Miller wins by +2000 votes. Just a guess.

    the few early votes (663) are somewhat from Miller’s area plus they will contain democrat ballots as well. A split or tie seems likely to me.

    The 8000 question ballots are mostly people voting out of precinct. They work one place or are hunting or fishing or traveling and could not vote in home area. These are election day ballots. You also have to make an extra effort to vote. I would walk a mile for Joe Camel–I mean Joe Miller while I would not make much of an effort to vote for lisa M. Some of these will be democratic ballots but I think Miller wins these big.

    The 14K absentees are a crap shot. 1/3 democratic–many will be service people. Some were cast late in the game as momentum developed for Miller. So I think maybe breakeven or slight Miller edge.

    So +2K is my guess/prediction

  • spreadout

    approval is 23/24. That’s not “pretty consistently unpopular”

    This is a similar situation to Florida. Lisa Murkowski would have to move far to the left to win. The conservatives and independent conservatives will vote for Miller.

  • Scope

    you are comparing oranges and apples. Yes, some states have conventions or caucuses to select their Republican candidate in races. I actually prefer conventions, as only Republicans, that have skin in the game, get to chose the nominee. They are also much less expensive. The VA GOP gets to decide if our R candidates are elected/selected by convention or primary. The taxpayers pay for Primary elections.

    In Alaska, they held a primary, and both Miller and Murkowski were voted on by the Alaskan voters, including those that are not Registered with either party. The difference here is that the voters chose, not just Republican delegates.

    Whether the phone banking for Murkowski, by the AK GOP, was legal or not, and, I have not read their bylaws, it puts a big stink on an already very contentious race. It would seem that the AK GOP would not help one Republican candidate over another Republican candidate, unless they had ulterior motives. As I’ve pointed out above, the AK GOP obviously had ulterior motives. At least, it is highly unethical. As I said, I haven’t read their by laws.

  • Scope

    Do you know if there is anything specifically written in their rules and regs for the party with regard to the support of one candidate over another even before a primary winner is known?

  • Achance

    If there was a RPA phone bank, you don’t know that it was doing anything more than encourageing Republicans to go vote for the candidate of their choice, a very common practice. You are so ignorant of the facts and paranoid that you believe any of this crap being put out by unnamed sources who can’t remember who they heard it from. You’re actually a pretty much ideal Miller supporter – or Obama supporter.

  • Scope

    the AK Libertarian party apparently has a hard time even getting 3% of the vote. The Libertarian party told Lisa she isn’t invited to their party, pun intended. That’s the only 3rd party I know of that will be on the ballot in November in AK. The Florida Democrat is polling higher than 3%, but, Crist is heading to a number below that.

  • rdelbov

    as opposed to Apples to Oranges.

    1. No its not illegal to call voters from GOP HQ urging them to vote for a republican candidate during a primary campaign. The gist of the link left that item in question.

    2. Yes some parties have a formalized endorsement process where official candidates are selected. Alaska is not that why but in every state the party appartus is geared to re-electing the GOP incumbent. In Alaska I fully expect to see side by side pictures of Parnell and Murkowski in every GOP office plus their literature/bumper stripes. Nothing or little from Miller. That’s what state & local parties do . They normally promote the incumbent.

    Now calling for Murkowski, if it happened, would be unusual. Not the norm but not unexpected.

    Does anyone expect the DNC not to be “re-elect obama commttee by another name”. The party is set up to re-elect incumbents.

  • trapperjohn

    Reading the rules here: http://www.alaskarepublicans.com/site/c.clKSI7OSIqJcH/b.6037179/k.90C0/Party_Rules.htm

    It doesn’t appear clear to me that this is against the rules…anyone else want to interpret them?

  • Dr. Botkin

    that I saw a posting on your blog this morning charging the NRSC (202-675-6000) with dirty tricks on behalf of Lady Lisa in Alaska. It now seems to have gone missing. Did I imagine the whole thing?

  • tngal

    CQ reports there was an “emergency ” meeting yesterday on the race, and the board members voted unanimously to not let Murkowski use their ballot line in the event she wants to make the jump if she loses the R line.

    Its kind of funny how they arrived at the decision and only a 3 graph story if you want to check it out.

    Of course she can still run independant.

    Its on the “political wire” part.

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/08/30/murkowski_denied_libertarian_ballot_line.html

  • Achance

    She, or any other resident, could run as a write in but it would be a divisive waste of time. There are still almost 20% of the ballots to be counted, so this is a ways from over.

  • Scope

    You are getting more and more desperate and dilusional. You said pretty much the same to Erick Erickson in his post concerning the Mike Roman, NRSC, tie to the questionable Murkowski poll watcher. You have called Erick stupid for supporting Miller, you have all but called him a liar, and now you are trying to paint him as a dumb idiot dolt that believes everything he is told.

    I, like many many others here, are wondering just what it is that you have on Erick, the Moderators, or any one else connected to the site. Not one other person would ever get away with the disrespect, the chest beating you are doing here with respect to this race, and the insolence you have displayed with your posts against anyone who isn’t a Murkowski dynasty lover.

    You undoubtedly will retain your fan club here, but, you have most assuredly spent much of your credibility with those that are looking at the issues in this race, and, are not married to an Alaskan political dynasty, whatever it takes. I thought, and still do, that your legendary hatred of Palin, and everyone in her administration, would give pause to those that do support Palin, even in a small way, and for her help with the 2010 elections. If you have shown nothing else, in this primary, it is your willingness to support an elite Alaskan dynasty, even if it is the antithesis of what direction so many Republicans have worked so hard to displace.

    I guess you can quit the Communist indoctrination you subjected yourself to, but, it doesn’t mean that you have totally abandoned their MO.

  • JSobieski

    that it is the Miller enthusiasts who are throwing innuendo about alleged recounts (the absentee ballots haven’t even been counted once) and alleged tampering.

    Frankly, on the issue of election fraud, the Miller side does sound like the Obama side.

    That said, I still want Miller to prevail, but he should be smart and tone down the allegations against a person whose voters he will need.

  • JSobieski

    nt

  • finaljeopardy

    It seemed to have gone down the memory hole.

  • Scope

    we all should just give up on electing conservatives, and, forget about holding Republicans feet to the fire. According to your post, once in DC, always in DC, and don’t dare challenge the wayward incumbents. With that kind of thinking, I now see how we got to the really bad place the Republicans are in. That would be me, and a whole lot of others that don’t believe in incumbent royalty rule.

  • JSobieski

    Actual letter by Miller representative said “supporter of Murkowski may have engaged in election fraud”

    Diary headline “Murkowski engaged in election fraud”

    Erick did the right thing and took it down–that is my conjecture.

  • Achance

    I can’t confirm what really happened and I would be astounded if van Flein’s account is accurate, but Mike Roman was there and something untoward happened. I have it on good authority that he was not there on behalf of the RNC or the RNSC and on absolute authority that he was not there on behalf of the RPA. But either the Elections Regional Manager was totally incompetent to let him be there or he was authorized by a campaign to be there.

    Frankly, the reported conduct is so outrageous that I cannot believe any Regional Office Manager would have tolerated any of it, so if it really happened the way van Flein recounts it, I gotta wonder just what was going on. I know I used to get a whole lot less scrutiny and supervision going in and out of prisons and cop shops all the time than I got the other day as a campaign’s election observer. I was there with two other former high-level state officers and we were well known to the upper level elections staff and they treated us like we hadn’t been reliably potty trained. And to their credit, they treated the Miller people the same way, making one sit in the reception area half the day until they got proper authorization from the campaign for him to observe.

  • Scope

    The Obama side has never, to my knowledge, sounded the horns of election fraud. Quite the contrary, it has been the Republicans that have accused the Democrats of election fraud, and, there have been many court cases across the country to attest to that fact. If you have been reading the diaries of Anita Montcreif, and, ladyimpachio (sp) you would see the undisputed evidence of Democrat voter fraud.

    To say that the Miller team is spouting off about election fraud, just as the Obama team does, doesn’t even pass the smell test. As to the diary (now removed) where Achance, in a comment. accused Erick of being a fool, and that’s a mild description, still stands. If you read my post, my problem with Achance is with his disrespect, and willingness to sound as though he is much more of a political authority than Erick could ever hope to be. Free speech is a wonderful thing, and has a very big place in the public square. This is not the public square, and, as a private entity, there is a right to “monitor” what is posted here, just as many other sites do. You have seen it over and over. It’s a dang good thing that EE has thick skin, and, apparently has considered the source.

    My problem with Achance, for a long time, has been with his obvious personal hatred of Palin, and, by God if you don’t take every word he says as the Gospel, you are just beneath his superior intelligence. If Achance were an elected official in Washington currently, he would be one of the elites we would be trying to remove.

    As I said, he will retain his fans, and every excuse to support him, in any small way will survive. Most bow at his altar, because he will slice and dice you if you don’t. Others just choose to ignore him. That kind of superiority should not exist at Redstate, and, in fact doesn’t for the most part, except for a very few.

    There are many members here that don’t agree with everything Erick posts, but, they don’t do it in a way that attempts to disparage Erick’s credibility.

  • Achance

    http://community.adn.com/adn/node/152957

  • JSobieski

    Maybe you are forgetting the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections. Any time the democrats lose, they assert that fraud occured.

    Florida in 2000. Ohio in 2004. When 2006 gave them both houses, wow—no fraud. Surely your memory reaches back before 2006?

    The letter by the Miller team was inadvertantly mischaracterized by Erick, and now that diary has been taken down (kudos to Erick for doing so).

    I don’t worship at any one’s feet. AChance AND Erick are both human beings. As is Sarah Palin. Everyone makes mistakes. Being responsible is about how one deals with their mistakes.

    In my opinion, Erick can jump the gun a bit—at least lately (see diary regarding how it is a “done deal” that Castle will resign his seat so Beau can take over). Worshiping at anyone’s altar is a mistake unless that person is Jesus Christ.

    Erick and AChance are both adults. Both know that this isn’t personal, and both understand that credibility matters. Frankly, if someone here prevents an untruth from being disseminated, they are saving/helping the credibility of the person who would otherwise be in error.

  • dfaith

    that whoever comes out of the fray the loser puts party ahead of personal interests and refrains from taking the Charlie Crist route.

  • Dr. Botkin

    but pretending like it never happened is not so great.

    Based on the post, I called the NRSC and gave them an earful, but when I returned to the blog, it was gone. Not so good.

    The young lady I talked to said the NRSC sent a lawyer up to Alaska ?to make sure everything was in order” and that he had already returned. When I asked about the Murkowski people, abetted by the NRSC, calling absentee voters about how they voted, she said I would have to call the Alaska NRSC.

  • Achance
  • chihank

    The NRSC poll has Miller leading 52-36. PPP has Miller up by 8. Since both polls are “biased”, lets average the polls together. This means Miller is up by 12.

  • texasgalt

    Like many othr conservatives around the nation, I am running 2 “join the fight, not the club./ @JimDeMint http://bit.ly/a3T7I4 about 8 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone

  • Scope

    I don’t give a flying crap about people all making mistakes, we are all human, and, that is a given. My intent was that one can post their ideas/opinions/thoughts etc without resorting to underhanded/or outright INSULTS to the poster. If you read my post again, you will see that I have acknowledged that not everyone agrees with EE all the time. The point is in not doing it in a manner that is meant to disqualify anything Erick says, at least with respect to this issue, and has been an outright attempt to paint EE as not a trustworthy person. Achance has a very direct, and abrasive way of showing his disagreement. If he every became an attorney, he would probably lose every client he represented, and, would probably be called to a judges conference more often than anyone in history. He would immediately be disqualified when he started calling every one idiots and stupid. I know he can argue his points with intelligence, articulate language, and with alacrity.

    Yup, you are correct with past Democrat voter fraud allegations, particularly in the Gore Bush 2000 election. In the more current atmosphere, you will also see that there has been a rash of voter fraud cases that have gone to court. You should also recognize that the Holder DOJ has blocked the worst voter intimidation case against the Black Panthers. You should also pay attention to the many and varied reports of the DOJ ignoring cases where whites bring the case, and are ignored, but, when blacks bring the case it is more than on their radar. You can bring up all the past voter fraud cases you want in past years, however, the accusation from you have been that the Miller accusations are similar to the Obama administration voter fraud cases. If you meant past elections, it would have been helpful if you didn’t attach the Miller case to the Obama administration. It is inappropriate.

    I don’t worship at anyone’s feet either. I have been a very vocal advocate for looking into the candidates on your own, and, making your own decision based on your own research. It is helpful that some Redstaters post info on their states and districts candidates, but, more often than not those posters have already chosen their horse in the race, and, in some cases, the opinions posted reflect that personal bias. That is the case with Achance with his fury with anyone not supporting the Murkowski dynasty. He can’t have credibility as he has chosen sides, and has lost all objectivity. Not only has he choosen sides, he is now supporting someone who, in any other state, he would vilify.

    He has painted himself into the same corner with his outright hatred of Palin. His posts have been more personal, and, not very objective.

    I know that Achance can argue his points with intelligence, a command of articulate use of language, and alacrity. For what ever reason, he chooses to degrade himself with childish name calling, and that escapes me. It isn’t pretty, or necessary.

    Now tell me again about the responsible person that can admit his mistakes, and show adultness in their admission of those mistakes. Oh, wait a minute, Achance did do just that with his post saying that the Roman accusations may have some validity.

  • rdelbov

    I was in the GOP anti establishment in the late 1970′s before the reagan revolution.

    The reaganites took over the GOP in nearly every state. The purpose in 1984 was to re elect Reagan.

    The purpose of a local party organization is to build a base to elect republicans. Its defacto purpose is to re-elect incumbents.

    There’s not doubt that when a serious primary battle comes forward you need to pull back a bit but don’t be shocked that the GOP establishment is going all out to re-elect Coburn-Vitter-DeMint this year. That’s what they do

  • Scope

    There should be no question that the national GOP would support the Republican nominee for President. In the local and statewide elections, they need to STAY OUT OF THE PRIMARIES, It is not their job to pick winners and losers, or to decide who the nominee should be over and above the voters desires, period. It is not their job to support/endorse the incumbent if the voters are against that incumbent. That is why there is such backlash against the Republican leadership, even at the local level, and the argument has been made for term limits. If I am not mistaken, Coburn, Vitter, and DeMint have already been elected, through primaries, as the Republican candidates in those races. Why is it so hard for you to understand that it is appropriate for the national committees to support the Republican in the General, but, to stay out of the primaries, until they are elected/selected by the voters.

  • trapperjohn

    He was in Wasilla at the request of John Bitney, who works for Murkowski’s campaign. The allegations made are that he was on a state computer for about 20 minutes, that he called and texted on his cell phone multiple times while looking at confidential voter information, that he wrote confidential information on paper and only turned it in after being requested to by a Miller observer.

    There were other Murkowski observers in the office who were from Wasilla and who did not act in this manner at all.

    Mike Roman is a professional election consultant and private investigator not from Alaska and apparently is founder of the online site, www.electionjournal.org.

    What he did, and why he was allowed to do what he did should be investigated in detail. Who did he call, what did he text, and what did he do on the computer. It may all have been innocent, but it should be verified to be so.

  • trapperjohn

    I should have said that he was in the elections office in Wasilla acting as an observer for Miurkowski during the counting and verifying of questioned and absentee ballots. He was in the office with the confidential election information acting in this manner.

  • Achance

    that he was not on a State computer and though he tried never brought a bag into the ballot room. He was texting or using a Blackberry, but Bitney says van Flein was too. There is no way for an observer to get confidential info unless one of the canvassers or someone with elections gives it to them. Elections took the Handbook he was taking notes on, so it should all sort out.

    Roman didn’t cover himself with glory but that doesn’t justify the Miller Campaigns hysterical response.

  • JSobieski

    I just wanted to respond on the following two points:

    (1) that democrats are the ones usually raising very thin allegations of fraud
    (2) that the allegations of fraud by Murkowski were very much overstated (the diary asserting such had been pulled).

    Outside of those two parameters, it wasn’t my intention to get sucked into anything else. I support (without exception) the insurgent young turk candidates that RS supports. I just don’t like what I consider to be unfair factual smears. I am glad the Murkowski allegation was removed from RS, since not even Miller’s folks are making the argument that she did anything. I read the letter in the original diary on the topic, and the letter didn’t really say anything that forcefully.

    I agree that an investigation is warranted, but conclusions are not warranted at this point. I also found the L party thing to be fantasy land, so I think my track record is pretty good on this stuff.

  • trapperjohn

    was not there. She was in Juneau.

    Eyewitnesses appear to have said something very different. This needs to be investigated further. Anyone that was texting or using a cell phone while observing needs to be investigated. That would include Van Flien if true.

    It is incumbent on everyone to go above and beyond the call to keep this election clean.

  • JSobieski

    The letter doesn’t really say much of anything. Lots of lawyer hedge language in it. Very toned down (compared to the discussion of the letter). Seemed to me to more of the standard CYA, paper the file, and raise certain issues in case they turn out to be issues.

  • Doc Holliday

    before I just wanted a Republican to win in the end. I still do, but now I actually hope Miller wins.

  • Achance

    without talking to the Wasilla people? If you do, you’re thinking Palin/Parnell appointees are even dumber than I think some of them are.

    That’s the irony in all this that none of you seem to get; if Roman did all these terrible things, he was being allowed to by Palin/Parnell political appointees. So, if they did allow him to do this stuff, they’re either incompetent or corrupt; you pick it.

  • Achance

    though lawyerly postitioning for a later appeal to twelve morons with drivers’ licenses also looks about the same.

    From what I can gather Mike Roman is an a$$ that hangs around enough that somebody thought he knew something and hired him. He wasn’t there at the behest of the evil NRC, the evil NRSC, or the doubly evil RPA. Somebody on the Murkowski Campaign designated him an observer out in the heart of Palin/Miller country and he went into stupid. If the Elections people actually let him do the stuff in that complaint, I have to think the whole thing was a set up and he was some sort of double put in there to embarrass Murkowski. Either that or people from back east have gotten progressively dumber since I was last back there in ’07; could be that too.

    I know the Elections people I had to deal with had me thinking that I wished I were still a director so I could effectively tell them what I thought about being treated the way they treat observers. It’s been a long time since anybody I wasn’t married to ordered me around like that.

  • JSobieski

    airports and the polls. In those two places, we stop being constitutionally empowered free citizens and are instead transformed into school children.

    Its probably a good thing that the volunteer orcs were so harsh—if they can get to you, then most people won’t try any funny business. Its proactive intimidation, something I believe you are a fan of. There definitely is an efficacy to it. Definitely works for the unions.

  • Achance

    I either have a complete neophyte who’ll be tarred as an extremist and used as a foil to make Mark Begich and Comrade Obama look moderate, I’ll have a badly damaged senior senator who limps into re-election with a significant portion of the electorate thinking she stole the nomination, or my State will have two Democrat Senators for the first time since ’68; thank you Sarah Palin.

    So, here’s the Democrat calculus: They think they’re still going to control the Senate. So, if they leave McAdams in and Miller wins, Miller probably beats McAdams and Begich, Obama, et al. can simply torture Alaska and blame it all on Parnell/Miller obstreperousness, kinda the game they’re playing now with the Senate minority about whatever bill that is. Sure helps them that the res publica is too damned dumb to understand that the Ds can pass anything they want without any Republican votes unless you get into total filibuster. Or do the Ds go for the brass ring and put Knowles, Ulmer or one of their other well known people in and try to grab the seat. Now I think doing that would be irristable to the Ds here because they hate the Murkowskis so much. But if they do that and still are in the minority, they really don’t get much political advantage out of it and the vengance of the Alaska electorate against Begich in ’14 might be terrible. Decisions, decisions …

  • trapperjohn

    I happen to know personally all of the Murkowski observers and all of the Miller observers in the Wasilla elections office. All except Mike. I trust every single one of them…except Mike.

    He was obnoxious, arrogant, and acted as if he was not subject to any of the normal rules. What he did while there should be spelled out exactly in detail and he should be completely willing to hand over his phone for investigation since he used it both with calls and with texts while acting as an observer and looking at the voter information.

    I cannot believe they allow those in the room at all. With my iphone I can photo a page of info and send it to an offsite source in about 4 seconds.

  • Achance

    being thrown out by some old retired teacher and arrested if you give her any crap is SO unseemly.

  • JSobieski

    There are few things in this world as tenacious as a 4’10″ 90 lb 70 year old nun. When they launch–they launch 100% and hold nothing back. Nobody will intercede on your behalf, and you won’t be able to defend yourself because . . . its a nun going for your throat.

    Always respect the power of absolute conviction and willingness to hold nothing back. If Obama had attended Catholic school, our foreign policy would be far better off than it is now.

    As a conservative, I like to hear stories about where the old rules are still in force.

  • trapperjohn

    At least I don’t think they are…

    They are just part time election officials who do this every couple years.

    They are nice ladies who were over run by a pushy guy who thought rules didn’t apply to him.

  • Achance

    employees are all appointees. The “canvassers” or “election judges” are either temporary election employees or volunteers. ALL employees of the Division of Elections are exempt from the State Personnel Act which makes them essentially political appointtes. The lower level ones are generally treated like permanent State employees but the upper level ones definitely serve at the pleasure.

  • peg_c

    Most of the candidates I dig deep to contribute to are DeMint disciples (Senate-wise anyway). Just the fact that Trenthorn Lotthorn is peeved at DeMint says all you need to know.

    Tea Party candidates and their supporters sure do have the Republican status quo’s knickers in a twist. Here’s to permanent wedgies for ALL the status quo types in November.

  • texasgalt

    like Miller or we will be stuck with the same sorry McConnell “strategies”- you know, the ones where you bluster around a bit and then cave.