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Binnie fades but Ayotte still the clear leader

Ayotte Binnie

New Hampshire apparently tries to hard in Presidential years to have its primaries first, that it tires and has to have its Senate primaries last. So we’re still on primary watch for that state, and it looks like the Republican race has shifted again.

Kelly Ayotte still leads the primary race to decide Democrat Paul Hodes’s opponent, but it appears the race for second is wide open now.

Before the big news was that Bill Binnie, from the left wing of the Republican Party, had surged and become the clear second place opponent to Ayotte. But according to Magellan Strategies, he’s back in third, with Ovide Lamontagne, self-described true conservative of the race, back in second: Ayotte 34, Lamontagne 21, Binnie 17, and Jim Bender brings up the rear at 13 (MoE 3.3).

Binnie’s unfavorables are way up now, and he’s at -24 net with a 30 favorable/54 unfavorable rating now. Meanwhile Ayotte rides high with +20 for 54/34, and the lesser known Lamontagne also sits at +20 38/18.

What I find most interesting is that Republicans and Independents support Bender and Lamontagne by the same amounts, but Binnie takes 10 points from Ayotte when looking at the likely Independent voters in the primary, nearly making the race a tie in that subset.

It’s clear, then, that independents may still approve of Bill Binnie, but Republicans increasingly do not, and Republicans seeking an alternative to Ayotte are apparently turning to Ovide Lamontagne instead. That said, it’s still Kelly Ayotte’s show right now.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

  • chihank

    Palin and Coburn for Kelly Ayotte.

    Laura Ingraham and Dan Quayle for Ovide Lamontagne.

    Chris Christie says he will be campaigning for candidates this fall. Could he endorse Ayotte like he did Castle?

    Romney has been spending the summer in NH. Will Romney back Ayotte?

  • america1st

    who lost his last state-wide election *badly* when this was still a “red” state, or at least reddish purple. Historically, his appeal seems largely limited to those whose sole or principle litmus test is an absolute opposition to abortion (just sayin’, not criticizing). While I’d vote for him in the general and would prefer someone more conservative than Kelly Ayotte, Lamontagne simply cannot carry enough additional votes in the general to win, even over a spineless worm like hodes. And while my own views sometimes verge on Attila’s, I find him just a bit too extreme.

  • america1st

    where he’s a successful businessman rather than a professional politician and / or lawyer, I was all for him until he came out for amnesty for illegals last spring. One juan mccain is two too many.

  • SirGladiator

    I don’t know enough about the NH Candidates to know whether Lamontagne is indeed ‘too Conservative’ for New Hampshire, I tend to doubt that’s true given his favorable ratings in that poll, but even if that is true it’s still far better to have him in second than the leftist, as the ‘worst case’ scenario would be having an extra-Conservative guy win the Primary, whereas before the worst case scenario was a much more liberal guy winning the Primary back when it was Binnie who was closing in on Ayote.

    From everything Ive read, Ayote seems like a fine person to nominate, and I certainly strongly supported her when it was between her and the more liberal fellow. Now that the more liberal guy has faded and the choice is down to two Conservative candidates, I think each has an obligation to show us all why they are the more Conservative, and why they are the more electable, of the two. If the bottom line is that one is more Conservative, while the other is more electable (as seems the case right now) then we’ll have to do our best to judge ‘how much’ more Conservative, and ‘how much’ more electable, each is. Its a much more pleasant problem to have than the one we had before, back we had a serious threat from the left.

    Hopefully this poll is correct, and Binnie and Castle’s numbers are indeed heading in the same direction, straight down, and come Sept 14th we’ll be looking at nothing but good Conservative nominees, and the only question in New Hampshire will be not ‘if’ a Conservative has won, but which one won.

  • travelkingnh

    So, all of us conservative republican voters in New Hampshire are “fringe” voters………how pathetic an analysis. I don’t think so daddy. Ovide describes himself as a three legged conservative: economic-social-constitutional. Most people around these (NH) parts don’t think of that is fringe. The poll puts him at 21% and his first cable buy on TV only started Wed night.

    Anyone who takes the time to look at his personal history and public record would not label him as extreme…….at least not in NH. Why settle for another Judd Gregg when we can vote for another Gordon Humphrey and still win against Paul Hodes?

    Ayotte has been running for 14 months and her support peeked about 10 months ago. Look for Ovide to win by a nose.

  • travelkingnh

    Polling by Dick Bennet’s American Research Group conducted last week also put Lamontagne in second place, even before Sunday’s Manchester Union Leader endorsement. That tells me that Ovide’s numbers were already moving up solely on his grass roots activities and last week’s first time radio spots………and Ayotte’s negatives from all the Binnie-Ayotte attack ads.

    This will be a dogfight between Ayotte-Lamontagne down to the Sept 14th primary. Binnie, Bender and the 3 other lessor known candidates collectively will pull 33% (1/3). It’s all about how Ayotte and Lamontagne split the other 66%.

    However, only Ayotte supporters (Neil) define this as a race for 2nd place. This is a race for 1st place…….and we are likely to get the answer in the early hours of Sept 15th.

  • sunstamp36

    Kelly will be nothing but a John McCain puppet, he came to NH to campaign for her. I see her in the Olympia Snowe/Susan Collins mold and am just not interested. I think after the debate on Sept 9th, the voters will realize who the true conservative is and support Ovide Lamontagne.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Posting like this just makes people root against Ovide just to spite you, you know.

  • IJB

    See also sunstamp’s post below – seeing stuff like that just makes me root for Ayotte.

  • travelkingnh

    Neil, I understand that after 5+ years on Redstate you have earned your stripes…….I respect that. You put forward information and provide us with your analysis and opinion. However, it still is your opinion.

    I take my NH politics seriously. It is personal. I am voting in this race and active in the grass roots politics that is New Hampshire. When america1st throws out a baseless label of “fringe” on the candidate that now is running 2nd, was our GOP nominee for Governor in 1996, and is a highly respected person throughout New Hampshire……..it is only “fair” to call him on it.

    It is his opinion that Ovide can’t win the general election. Maybe some new polling data will convince him otherwise. But he is entitled to his opinion.

    When I take the time to post something against Ayotte, as I have in the past, I offer the data or the historical information to back up that opinion. At the end of the day it is just that, my opinion.

  • rdelbov

    after picking Joe Miller in Alaska I trust Sarah Palin to know Kelly Ayotte is a “real conservative”

  • irishrebel2000

    Neil:

    Let me get this straight…

    The polls basically say Ovide has doubled his support in the past month to 21% and Ayotte is still around 34 % and you are acting like she has the race all wrapped up and just because this is posted it will make people vote for Ayotte just to spite Ovide ???

    Maybe you should spend more time answering why Ayotte paid Planned Parenthood over 300k in NH taxpayer funds to settle a case she “won”…

    It’s bad enough she says she is pro-life when she knows she did this but is doubly troubling she did this and calls herself a fiscal conservative… It is such a fundamental example of poor judgment it disqualifies her as a rational candidate for the office….

    Here is the article:

    I know you will try to ignore it but its out in the media and people are getting furious when they read it…

    [snip]

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Keep that up and you will be banned. Don’t copy and paste copyrighted works.

  • irishrebel2000

    Ayotte’s campaign has been telling conservatives she is the only one that can stop Binnie and Hodes so even though LaMontagne is the real conservative in the race , we have to settle for our second choice.

    The pragmatist argument is crumbling like a sand castle on a beach.

    Binnie is fading in the polls , LaMontagne’s poll numbers have doubled in the last month and he leads Hodes in a head to head contest.

    When you throw in the fact the Republican Washington establishment is supporting Ayotte and her backers are precisely the same people who talked like Republicans and voted like Democrats and expanded federal government and its powers to outrageous levels, NH conservatives are in a position to take back the senate seat that belongs to them , not to Judd Gregg’s annointed one and not a candidate beholden to the Washington establishment.

    Conservatives have a chance to make fundamental changes in our country and LaMontagne will help us do it….

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Ayotte is a pro-life Republican who mops the floor with Hodes. That’s a valid argument for her.

  • irishrebel2000

    http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/news/statenewengland/842363-227/in-09-ayotte-okd-settling-abortion-case.html

  • irishrebel2000

    are links to the article still ok…

  • irishrebel2000

    Neil, maybe you did not read the article..

    If you did read it, how can you tell NH voters who are pro life and fiscal conservatives they should vote for someone who made such a poor decision ???

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I tend to ignore hitjobs from the lefty press on Republicans, especially when I’m having to clean them up to keep RedState from having legal issues :)

  • rdelbov

    article had absolutely nothing to do with Ayotte being pro-life or not.

    The case was settled -the law was changed by the legislators(making the lawsuit moot)-and the legislators approved money to settle the matter.

    Ayotte did not give an opinion on abortion but rather settling on a payment that her client (the state) had approved.

    This issue had nothing to do with the right to life but rather settling a lawsuit.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/robertjursik rjursik

    She’s a rookie campaigner who’s got boatloads of cash, high-profile endorsements from people like McCain and Palin, an incredibly unpopular likely Democrat challenger — and she STILL CAN’T CLOSE THE DEAL. Ayotte’s support has been basically static for months, she avoids debates like the plague, and she allows herself to get into stupid mud-slinging contests with non-factors like Binnie. Bottom line: SHE’S A LOUSY CAMPAIGNER. She has been convinced by the establishment GOP that she can pretty much hit the cruise control on her campaign and snooze behind the wheel until September 15th. Ovide has been relentless and energizing, winning straw polls (except the ones that Jim Bender decides to purchase), and essentially doubling his numbers in the last six weeks. To cap it off, he’s also received the Union Leader’s endorsement and has a broadcasting heavyweight named Laura Ingraham giving him THOUSANDS of dollars of free air time with her advocacy. Oh, and he’s just got on TV this week too. Let Kelly sleep, she’s being passed by the superior vehicle anyway and she’s nowhere near the finish line.

  • america1st

    I, too, am a NH resident – and a native one who was stuffing envelopes for Ike before I lost my baby teeth. While I voted for Lamontagne in his disastrous ’96 run for the corner office, I remember the absolutely abysmal results: far left shaheen 57% & Lamontagne 39%. Granted, Perot’s presence in the Presidential race caused ticket splitting down the ballot, but ankle-pants had 8% less votes than shaheen and as you may recall Sen. Smith held onto his seat despite the otherwise dim sweep. Ovide took about 40% of the primary vote versus the roughly even split between two other (more rational) candidates. When the general came around, he added *some* party faithful but the independent vote, which as you know, isn’t all that liberal here, and some of the centrist Republicans went with the “clean for gene” squatter. By my definition, that makes him a fringe candidate. Not, granted, at the level of Ron Paul, kookcinich or larouche, but definitely an unelectable candidate under any but the most abnormal circumstances, even in 2010, even here. I’ve not cast a dimocrap vote except for a few stray ones for Gallen, Durkin & Tom McIntyre back in the day, but based on my 50+ years of involvement in NH politics, my _opinion_ is that the only hope for hodes will be if Lamontagne wins the primary. And, BTW, I didn’t say anything about his supporters being fringe anything, so please don’t impute words to me, hokay? All I’m saying is his primary opponents would have to be *much* less conservative than Lamontagne before he’d get my vote in a primary. I would still vote for him in the general if that were my only (R) option, but I would do so without enthusiasm nor any great expectation of seeing him win. If he should win this primary, I *do* hope I am wrong about that last, as stopping the socialist agenda supersedes all else.

  • irishrebel2000

    The AG was the only person authorized to determine if a payment should be made and she had the right to appeal the decision to pay Planned Parenthood…

    Please explain to me how Planned Parenthood won the case if the issue became moot. If there was no longer any issue to decide, why do you have to pay the other party when the issue was no longer before the court ???

    If you read the article, you will note that the legislator never knew what the settlement payment was until after they had to pay it…

    You will also note that Ayotte never testified in the legislator when the legislation was being changed. If you are a pro life leader and you testify on numerous matters in the legislator, why not pro life issues ???

    If you are a fiscal conservative, why didn’t she appeal an order to pay Planned Parenthood when they were not the prevailing party…

    Even Binnie could not make this up……

    You cannot approve something if you are never consulted about it.

  • irishrebel2000

    Since when is Kevin Landrigan and the Nashua Telegraph a lefty publication….

    This article was published by Ayotte’s hometown newspaper…

    Moreover, since when do lefty newspapers complain that self proclaimed conservatives are not really conservatives…..

    Landrigan is one of the most respected political reporters in the state and he reports news, not hitjobs….

  • irishrebel2000

    wow, tell me what fringe positions LaMontagne actually holds instead of the Big Bad Cookie Monster the Dems want you to see when Ovide is mentioned…

    Wow, if anyone is a fringe candidate it is Hodes and Obama and they were elected….

    Moreover, Shaheen beat Sununu so does that mean no one who ran against her can win a statewide office ???

    Talk about Alice in Wonderland….

  • irishrebel2000

    Neil , you should run for office because you are great at not answering a direct question :)

  • Oz

    How much does she need to get to “cross the line”?

    Show me Ovide beating Hodes in a real commisioned poll and I’ll buy into the hype, but New Hampshire isn’t exactly a red state … purple, but not red.

  • america1st

    you didn’t suggest Ayotte is the Red Queen . . . but let’s save the nasty comments for our common enemy, the treasonous lefties, eh?

    Yes, hodes, zero & shaheen were elected. In 2008. In the tsunami of self-flagellation which resulted in this disastrous regime. I like the younger John Sununu. A lot. Much more laid back & friendly than his father – plus far less self-important. And a staunch conservative, which was his most important quality. That said, 1996 Bob Smith over dickswett was close; far too close given the characters and track records of the two candidates. As you may recall, tricky dick got tossed out on his ear in 1994 for casting the deciding vote for the AWB? Slick’s coat tails were about 1000 votes too short for dickswett in 1996, but shaheen won handily.

    Bob Smith can be abrasive at times and was detested by the lefties, but there is no question he is one of the good guys in the true sense of the word and a pure conservative. JMHO, but I think Ovide is no less a decent guy and no less conservative. Ever wonder why he won but Ovide did not? Please consider those dynamics, for I believe you will find them helpful in understanding my analysis (opinion as it may be).

    I’m not going to go digging back through Lamontagne’s public statements over the past several years to find specific quotations. And in any case, my opinion rests on voice tones and body language as much as the words themselves – as it does for most people most of the time. When I listen to the man, there are these overtones which I find disconcerting . . . something too inflexible, too self-righteous . . . a sense of a sort of Carrie Nation / John Brown personality lurking behind the eyes.

    He would be immensely preferable to hodes, somewhat more so than Gregg, but way down my list of past and present candidate potentialities because of the factor mentioned above.

    ‘K, ’nuff said on this.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • NHConservative0227

    You mean the same Sarah Palin who supported the RINO John McCain over the real conservative JD Hayworth?

    The same Sarah Palin who supported Fiorina over Chuck DeVore?

    Nevermind that FACT that Ayotte supported the nomination of Sotomayor!!

    Yes, the very same Sotomayor who voted against the 2nd Amendment in the Chicago vs. McDonald case!

  • NHConservative0227

    by not even mentioning that FACT that Ayotte supported Sotomayor’s nomination to the Supreme Court!!

    This automatically disqualifies her in my book! She supported a far left radical judge who supported racial discrimination in the New Haven firefighter case. If that wasn’t enough, Sotomayor voted against the 2nd Amendment in the Chicago vs. McDonald case.

    I don’t understand how any real conservative could support such a far left radical who has no respect for the Constitution to the Supreme Court.

    What’s even worse is that NO ONE is talking about this. It’s like it never happened! Even the Union Leader which supported Ovide and did a great job attacking Binnie in Sunday’s paper, has not mentioned it.

    If someone wants to vote for for the RINO Ayotte, then so be it, but they need to know the truth!

    Ovide is the only real conservative in this race. He has taken a 15 point pledge of promises to deliver on when he’s elected. Among them are to

    1. Vote for only judges who adhere to the Constitution and don’t legislate from the bench.

    2. Enacting term limits.

    3. Repealing Obamacare

    4. Repeal the failed Stimulus

    5. To live in NH and commute to Washington as necessary to vote. This will allow him to stay in close touch with his constituents.

    http://ovide2010.com/?p=1362

    Finally, Ovide has more than doubled his support over the last few months. The regulars (Stevens and Haystack) here at Redstate were saying it was clearly a two-person race between Ayotte and Binnie. They were afraid that voting for Ovide would only in reality amount to voting for Binnie. Clearly they were wrong as Ovide has surged past the ultra-liberal Binnie.

    Now if we can get the support of real conservatives, Ovide can beat Ayotte next Tuesday!!

    All conservatives need to rally behind Ovide. There is no need to compromise your principles and settle for the RINO Ayotte.

    Please make a donation to Ovide today:

    http://ovide2010.com/

  • JSobieski

    simply that Ayotte is not as good as Ovide?

    Why not stick with that?

  • JSobieski

    The fact that McCain is not conservative and he was opposed by JD does not make JD conservative.

  • NHConservative0227

    That Redstate was a place to support real conservatives. It’s their responsibility to make people aware of who’s a solid conservative and who clearly isn’t.

    It’s been very frustrating seeing no one talk about Ayotte’s support of Sotomayor. You want to support her, fine, but please don’t ignore the giant elephant in the room.

    Erik Erikson made a great post about Ovide and Ayotte today.

  • NHConservative0227

    the worst of the worst!

    Honestly, I don’t know that much about JD other than he seemed to have a pretty good stance on the issues and he was being endorsed by Mark Levin.

    My original point was simply calling out Sarah Palin’s judgment for her support of McCain and Ayotte. Clearly she does not always align herself with true conservatives. I like Palin alot, but no one should ever blindly follow whatever she ways.

  • JSobieski

    Levin’s endorsement was based solely on JD not being McCain (McCain derangement syndrom), the fact that JD had a pulse, and that JD was saying the right things at the time.

    It wasn’t based on his record.

  • mbecker908

    Other than some earmarks.

    Actually, I think McCain is going to be a real benefit to the party over the next couple of years anyway. He is very good at throwing sand in the shorts of the nearest POTUS and he’s on a pretty good run with BO. I think he’ll be a team player as long as BO is in office.

  • NHConservative0227

    What is in JD’s record that you don’t like?

    When looking at McCain’s support of amnesty and McCain-Feingold, he has some larger shoes to fill!

  • blitzn

    watch the St. Anselms debates tonight if you want to see who is best to represetn us.

  • jimcyr

    My next governor, Paul LePage, was “supposed” to finish FAR behind most of the other candidates for Maine’s GOP nomination, according to the polls. Instead, he CLOBBERED them all.
    Just saying…
    (I used to actually administer political polls……….for the state’s most reputable firm, and I could tell you a few things about polls….)

  • jimcyr

    The biggest thing that us conservatives were troubled by was his stint doing “get your free government money!” commercials, after he briefly left politics. Unreal.
    I think he also had a few ethics lapses, if I’m not mistaken…….there was one other thing.
    Neither he nor McCain were a truly great option I guess. Sarah is loyal, and was able to hold her nose and endorse McCain. I can’t say I fault her too much for that. I once voted for a MOONBAT Dem. congressman because his office had gone above and beyond for me on an issue (but I only owed him my vote in ONE election!). Personal loyalty has to enter into the equation somewhere, I suppose.

  • jimcyr

    The only thing that keeps me from thinking Kelly is a really good candidate is the Sotamayor thing. Can any of her supporters please explain what that was all about? I have heard she supported her and then “changed her mind”.
    (Sotamayor is not fit for the court, solely from a LEGAL point of view).
    I got two good answers from Kelly today when she was on Howie Carr. I asked if she would be against ANY form of amnesty, and if she would vote to repeal Obamacare. She quickly said “yes” to each.
    I think in this year, either her or Ovide will clean Hode’s clock. It’s the year of the outsider.