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SurveyUSA: Paul well ahead in Kentucky

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 5th, 2010 at 03:01 PM  | 

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Paul Conway

SurveyUSA is no fly-by-night operation in polling. They’ve been around a while, they have a reputation, and a great many newspapers seem use them to poll local House races.

So we can’t dismiss their continuing series of polls which look very good for Republicans, including this new Kentucky Senate poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal with Republican Randal Paul seeming to overwhelm Democrat Jack Conway.

The top line of this poll is just brutal: Paul 55, Conway 40 (MoE 4.2). With this poll we’re at the range of a 96/4 split of lead probabilities. Paul wins 82% of Republicans, 32% of Democrats, and 56% of Independents, and I think it’s that number for Democrats (double what I would expect) that is the difference between Paul a close race and this large margin.

I’d be curious to see that split for Democrats without the Likely Voter filter put in. I suspect among all registered Democrats it’s closer to 15% for Paul and not this massive 32%. Barack Obama’s “professional left” just isn’t showing up this year, according to SurveyUSA’s projection..

It also doesn’t help Conway that the TEA party activists are so important this year. Those people who favor it (40%) back Paul 87-10. Neutrals (26%) also favor Paul 60-35. Those people with no opinion of the movement (9%) also support Paul 45-37. Conway has to find a way to win when he only leads among the 25% who oppose the TEA party, because those he wins 90-8.

This is a TEA party year, and Randal Paul is (a particular kind of) TEA party candidate, since some supporters of his father claim that they were the TEA party before anyone paid attention to the TEA party. So while some may question SurveyUSA’s likely voter screening, I think this poll reading is definitely plausible.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • constitutionalconservative

    Another “too controversial” and “too extreme” Republican candidate destroying his “mainstream” Dem opponent in a non-partisan poll.

    And this despite the fact that the legacy media has been attacking Paul relentlessly the entire campaign while giving Conway a free pass. Looks like voters are getting smart enough to tune this out.

  • rdelbov

    down to the party ID of the polls. Rand & Conway have been fairly steady as to how the republicans-democrats-indies vote but its the party ID of the poll that affects its ending margin.

    This poll has it at +5D–that means the GOP is surging to the polls to vote and I might add that national survey after survey finds this to be the truth. I might add that 20 states so far this year have set GOP (including KY) midterm primary records. There seems to be a GOP surge in turnout this year.

    I might add that KY’s democrats are very different from those in say CA.

    CA has 42% of its registered voters as democrats-it was nearly a 60% Obama state.

    KY has 47% of its registered voters as democrats and was nearly a 60% McCain state.

    So 32% for Paul-among democrats is par for the course in KY

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    even when he rightly suggested that parts of the Civil Rights Act is unconstitutional. The man is a winner and he will win.

  • Oz

    There is a long standing fact that people asked poll questions sometimes say what they think people want them to hear.

    In the case of African-AMerican candidates like Tom Bradley (in California), the thought was that people wanted to be seen as fair and more deverse so they said they would vote for Bradley and didn’t.

    Is there any chance of a reverse case for Angle? People not wanting to seem like they are supporting someone the left has painted as nuts or will there really be that many ticket splitters (based on the Sandavol / Reid governor race).

    Sorry to drop this in here, Neil, but I didn’t see anything about the latest Reid poll that puts him at 50% for the first time.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That NV race looks even to me. I think Mason Dixon underpolls her and has since the primaries, but I see no reason to believe that she underpolls with every firm.

  • rdelbov

    but Rand Paul is very electabilty in this state. I would suspect that nearly of the Southern states except Florida or VA would elect him plus many of the Western states..

    I don’t think you say Rand Paul is ahead in KY and therefore we could elect someone like him in Mi.

    Just saying -somewhere near 25 states would elect him.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    “Being at 50″ doesn’t mean the same thing when your opponent is at 47 that it means when your opponent is at, say, 42.

  • onehutu

    I fear that Rand Paul will be about as dependable as his father. With so many of the Libertarians, ideological consistency trumps practicality. How do we accommodate an isolationist, pro legalized drugs member of the caucus. Paul holds many positions which are at odds with traditional conservative thinking. Yes, I’d like to see Paul win as well, but I wonder about his future impact.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    He won the primary. Back him or move on to other races.

  • rdelbov

    may or may not underpoll

    I think the polls I have seen in NV that republicans are under polled. I think as far as I can tell RAS & MD are using 2006 type models for turnout in NV

    They moved moved GOP numbers a bit but not to the PPP or SUSA levels.

    If you put SUSA turnout numbers into NV you get Angle tied or barely ahead.

    I say this without having the premium info on RAS or MD. eyeballing it.

  • SteveLA

    rdelbov

    How much is Horrible Harry under-polling, that’s the real question. My guess, Horrible is under-polling much more than Angle is in this climate of anti-incumbency. Probably a bit of the old Tom Bradley effect with people saying one thing to pollsters and doing something entirely different in the real ballot. Maybe Neil knows how to deep dive a poll to detect that sort of thing, but I don’t know how you tell.

    Check back on the 1st of October to see how the polls stack up to see what the trend is. If there is a surge one way or the other by then or the middle of October, my guess is that will probably be how things end up. Right now, it’s a very close race.

  • IJB

    …Especially the most recent Rasmussen poll, which looks to me to be an outlier. (*No* way Reid’s at 50% at this point – that result is *insane*…)

    Anyawy, Mason-Dixon has Reid at 45%, and everyone else has him at 48% – of those, I suspect M-D is correct, and the others are “overpolling” Reid’s support…

  • IJB
  • SteveLA

    IJB

    I’m guessing that there is somewhat of a Bradly effect going on. People saying to pollsters that they are backing Angle but probably leaning Horrible Harry.

    But….let’s see what the polls tell us in October one way or the other, and let’s see what Horrible Harry does to convenience people out of work in Nevada that he will do more to fix the jobs problem than what Angle will be able to do. I don’t think Horrible can make that argument stick.

    I am betting that Obama is going to try a trick or two to help make that argument. Heck, I won’t be surprised to see Obama parachute into Vegas and make a direct appeal to the Unions that are pretty strong in town.

  • http://www.2010blog.net jsanzone

    I think he’s more interested in leading a broader national movement than exhibiting crankiness.

  • texasgalt

    They all made discouraging remarks about how Paul put the seat at risk. I believe that Santorum was especially condescending when Rand stumbled right after he won the primary. Something along the line of “this is what you get” with someone like Paul.

    These insiders need to be on the outside after November.

    Paul, 55-40. Yeah, this is what we get. Heh.

  • RedBeard

    Rand Paul should be viewed as a stepping stone to a solid conservative majority, not as a leader of the movement. I disagree with him on several key issues, but would vote for him in a heartbeat over any Democrat.

    For that matter, I had my disagreements with Ronald Reagan, but considered him our best president in modern times.

    I also disagree with my wife about what to grill tomorrow for the big Labor Day bash, but I’m not worried about her. ;-)

  • chihank

    During the primary, Santorum campaigned for Trey Grayson, Rand Paul’s primary opponent.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    What is wrong with 50-47, MoE 4? It’s perfectly in line with other results.

    Don’t let wishful thinking drag you astray.

  • rdelbov

    there is some wishful thinking and as I noted its somewhat spectulative based on not having all the RAS numbers. I just note that RAS -PPP-SUSA in some cases have polls states within days of eachother (think CA-WA-OH-PA) of late. In case after case the PPP & SUSA were better for the GOP then RAS.

    That’s a trend when you see RAS polling-ever so slightly and within MOE-more democratic then PPP or SUSA.

    lets be honest and this is not a hit on RAS. Its hard to pull the trigger on a +10 generic vote and or the projected R-D-indie brakdowns.

    So 50-47 is not bad for Angle–certainly within MOE but RAS/PPP/SUSA are all building likely voter models and some pollster appear a little bolder then others.

  • walter_hanson

    The basic test is will he be better than Collins, Snow, or one of the Democrats. That’s what counts! Besides the second that we get at least 41 solid votes to fillibuster than there is no way that we can be sold out one silly bill at a time. We can at least negoiate a good bill.

    Though it will be fun next year if we have 51 Senators how many times the Democrats will be praised for doing a fillibuster.

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapolis, MN

  • scarlos

    These SUSA polls are showing some weird cross tabs. Paul is also creaming Conway in the Youth vote, winning 60-33 despite losing the over-65 vote by 3.

    Also, I think this is a high sample of Republicans. 42% in Kentucky I think is a bit too much

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • IJB

    I think there is a segment that is embarrassed to say (or not yet ready to say) that they’re voting for Angle, so they’re telling pollsters they’re voting for Reid.

    I think a segment of the “likely voters” reporting Reid will either not vote for him, or will ultimately not show up to vote.

    The (media-inspired) “embarrassment” in this race is all on the Angle side, not on the Reid side – there’s not some hidden “phantom” vote for Reid out there in the bushes. I don’t buy that…

  • IJB

    Their results have been the most self-consistent all year, and the least “bouncy”.

    Ras’ results, OTOH, have been probably the most “bouncy” in NV, so I’m not putting any stock in their recent NV until at least one or two other polls confirm it…

  • rdelbov

    in voter identification. Roughly 1/2 of states have voter registration (some states like AK-NJ-MA have weak party registration systems) and 1/2 of the states do not register by party.

    In KY they register by party–right now its roughly 55%D -38%R-7%no party or indie.

    Yet in 2008 per the exit polls it was by self identification 47%D-38%R-15%I.

    KY has a strong party registration system (closed primaries) plus many local offices are settled in partisan primaries. So for instance in Pike county-its heavily democratic-the sheriff is chosen in the D primary. If you want to have any imput on who the sheriff or the county executive is you have to be a registered D. The GOP primary is a waste of time and effort. So you tend to see lopsided party ID’s in KY on a county by county basis but then McCain wins 58% in a state with 55% registered democrats Plus many registered democrats consider themselves republican but they want to vote for bubba for sheriff so they stay democratic for local races.

    I think at 42%R this poll is in line with CNN exits as it shows a 4% R move.

    A good way to look at this puzzle is that nationwide by party ID we are 33R-31D-34I. Consistently 1/3 of people consider themselves indie yet in strong party registration states like PA/KY (closed primaries & partisan local elections) we see 90% of voters are either democrats or republicans. Thus indies have to choose a party or be left out of primary and an effective say in most local elections.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But they underpolled her by a mile in the primary.

  • SteveLA

    IJB

    I’m not going to engage in any Angle bashing, she is the nominee of the Republican party and I’m no fan of Horrible Harry, so let’s see how actual real voters in Nevada view both candidates and how their respective stances on issues play in NV. That view will be clear I think by mid October.. probably. Right now it’s a tight race, but it is early and taking too much away from polling right now is a bit like looking at chicken entrails to determine the final outcome.

  • mboyle1988

    Mitch McConnell takes billions of dollars of pork and raises spending by the largest amount since Lyndon Johnson, and you’re worried about marijuana? The only social issue that matters is abortion. Maybe gay marriage. Paul opposes both. I’m an isolationist and I think we should be an isolationist. We don’t have money to fight stupid wars.

  • mbecker908

    And thankfully, we haven’t been involved in any.

  • jamesmackey

    What makes him an isolationist?? And I didn’t know he favored legalizing all drugs. I suspect he is in favor of legalizing pot though. Being an eye surgeon he’s knows Marijuana does have many medical uses.

    http://www.usatoday.com/yourlife/health/medical/2010-09-05-marijuana-pain_N.htm

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    I cannot imagine at any time being so bored and having nothing to do that I would actually take the time to answer a poll. And talking to my friends I get the same response.

    So this begs the question, Who is answering these poll questions?

    I see people getting more and more cynical and uncooperative all the time, spending most of their time with social media and ignoring older media.

    Just how do you scientifically poll such a changing populous?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s the easy excuse but it’s not true in this case. Angle got ganged up on by *Republicans* once she won the nomination.

    Heck even a while after the crybaby sore losers in that primary still were bashing her.

    So once she won, the race changed for Reid’s benefit.

  • m_quick

    He’s like Goldwater reincarnated.

    But I disagree about him being isolationist. Don’t confuse him with Ron Paul, another guy I hope leads the Republican party out of the wilderness.

  • JSobieski

    see http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704095704575473240835789222.html

    Pretty clear that the anger is specific to the US and the things we do. Its not like they also don’t try to kill our adversaries or anything.

    /sarcasm off

  • aesthete

    At least, not according to his public statements and campaign site, depending on how much mileage you accord those things. He has distanced himself from his father on foreign policy and libertarian absolutism, and calls himself a “Constitutional conservative”, by which (again, according to himself) he believes that what is not delineated or heavily implied in the Constitution should be left to the states. That does include drugs, but given his campaign persona, I imagine that he would argue for drug decriminalization on federalist, and not libertarian grounds (though I would love for him to do both). On foreign policy, he supports our current “special relationship” with Israel, as well as the Afghanistan War, though he did not support the Iraq War. We’ll see how he does when he gets to the Senate, but on the whole, I don’t think he’ll be quite as libertarian as you imagine, though he’ll probably be the most right-libertarian one in the Senate besides DeMint (a good thing, IMO).

  • aesthete

    While I have had my fair share of qualms concerning the prosecution of OEF and OIF, and my doubts concerning the necessity of the latter and the utility in continuing the former, it’s hard to define the rationale for either as “stupid”. Certainly, there was pretext and rationale for both conflicts: more than was the case in the Philippine-American War, or other pre-Cold War conflicts we engaged in (was there ever a more pointless and futile intervention than the 18-year Marine occupation of Haiti?).

  • IJB

    It’s not that I don’t think Reid’s ahead right now. (He very well may be…)

    It’s just that I don’t think he’s at *50%* right now.

    But I’m sure we’ll get new polls on this race next week, so we can see where we are then… :)

  • Richard Mullins

    while he bumbiled at the start with a talk to Rachel Maddow, his low-key and use of the ole brain has help. I also think that the primary lose by Adam Korkesh in NM-03 helped too in getting rid of any kooky people who might be connected to you. I also think that Jack Conway in what little I’ve heard him talk, is a real village idiot. So, it seems to be a Solid R in all respects and I’m sure that the Conservative wing of the Republican party in the Senate is ready for him.

  • jeffreywturner

    Perhaps the sample of black voters in KY is just so small that it allows for a very large margin of error within that cross-tab, but the fact that any poll is showing a white Republican getting nearly 40% of the black vote in a contested race is reason enough to make me question the seriousness of the poll.

  • Adjoran

    Paul?s handlers have brilliantly kept him away from unstructured settings since his early gaffes. Stay on message against Obama/Pelosi/Reid and don?t get distracted. Angle?s people should be telling her the same thing. If Reid?s the issue in Nevada, he loses by 10% or more. If she is the issue, it will be close enough to steal.

    Still, we must observe Rand Paul as a fringe nut by his own words and deeds. He gave literally hundreds of speeches decrying US foreign policy ? not just Bush foreign policy, but pretty much ANY foreign policy. Now, he was campaigning for his father when he said these things, but he stated them as principles, never qualifying with ?Daddy believes ??.

    We shall see how dependable his vote is on our national interests. We shall see if he votes against all spending bills, like Daddy. We shall see if, like Daddy, he gets all his earmarks and pork loaded into the bills before voting against them. Oh, he will surely be better than the Democrat would ? but the same can be said of Mike Castle

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s a three point lead, and if this race stays this close, it just might finish around 50-47 or even closer like 48-48.