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Sometimes a candidate is more than we expect

Carly Fiorina

During the California Senate primary, my major criticisms of Carly Fiorina were that she had no public track record to back her on the issues, and that as a novice campaigner she was liable to make mistakes and lose a winnable race. During the race I didn’t quite give her the Tom Campbell treatment, but I gave Chuck DeVore all the support I could.

During the Nevada Senate primary, the major criticism of Sharron Angle were that she was liable to make mistakes and lose a winnable race. She received so many attacks not just during the campaign, but even after when Danny Tarkanian and Sue Lowden came out to criticize her campaigning. At least Chuck DeVore endorsed Carly Fiorina without delay or weasel words.

Sharron Angle

Meanwhile few said a word about Mark Kirk being unelectable. After all, he’s a veteran House member from a district analysts rate as favored by Democrats. He was supposed to be the safe, comfortable, sure path to a win. And yet he is the one who made a critical mistake that turned his sure pickup into a tie.

And of course there’s Charlie Crist. The popular incumbent Republican governor of Florida was supposed to be just the man we needed in a state that went for Barack Obama, a seasoned politician with the ability to reach out to Democrats and Obama voters and win that state easily. Except now Kendrick Meek is taking his votes from Democrats, Marco Rubio won over Republicans, and he’s falling apart a second time after shivving the Republican party with his spiteful Independent run.

Sometimes we’re all just plain wrong about a candidate, and a person who wins a primary has more of what it takes than outsiders ever expected.

Carly Fiorina has stayed the same person since winning the primary. Some thought that without a track record, she could shift rapidly and hard to the left on key issues, trying to make it easier on herself to win. But no, she’s stuck to her guns on life, on illegal immigration, on radical “green” regulation, and most importantly on the need to get government out of the way in order to let us get some job creation going again in California. And in fact rather than fading or falling apart, she mounted a comeback win in the primary, and has now taken leads in two polls of likely voters.

Sharron Angle took a brutal string of attacks from both parties once she won the primary, but she didn’t quit. She didn’t crack like some expected, she didn’t make any remarks that the left and the press were able to twist against her, and she was in the end able to withstand the strongest attacks that the DC establishment and Harry Reid were able to combine against her. In the end, she too has bounced back in the polls to even up the race against the Senate Majority Leader.

It was supposed to be Sharron Angle, not Mark Kirk, that were supposed to fumble the key race and jeopardize our (slim, but real) chance of taking a Senate majority. It was supposed to be Carly Fiorina, not Charlie Crist, who would run to the left so hard and so fast we’d have a hard time remembering what was said in the primaries.

Well, the conventional wisdom was wrong quite a bit this year. We’re committed to beating Charlie Crist now. We’re hoping Mark Kirk can eke out a win on the coattails of Bill Brady. And we also need to get behind Sharron Angle and Carly Fiorina with everything we’ve got, because both will shift the Senate right, both can win, and both are crucial to our hopes of sending Barack Obama the biggest rejection he can possibly get: letting the Republican Senate Majority leader laugh in his face and say “We won.”

COMMENTS

  • NotSoBlueStater

    Part of this has to do do with people trying to be experts on too many races at once. I have a running disagreement with Redstate on this point. I traveled to Florida on vacation and found that Floridians have a very strong sense of their candidates — one that we simply cannot develop from afar.

    I’m from Massachusetts. Scott Brown is a product of the unique personality of the Massachusetts electorate. You simply can’t figure that out unless you live here.

  • indccc

    the Wisconsin Senate Primary. People who don’t know the candidates or don’t live in the State really should stay out of the Primary’s. Ron Johnson was up by 2 points simply because he was the endorsed candidate and someone other than Russ Feingold. He’s actually lost 1 point since he has been putting out ads and people have gotten to” know” him. He has outspent Feingold 3 to 1. The State Republican Party seems to think that money is all it takes to win, but that hasn’t gotten rid of Feingold in the past and it definately won’t work this time.

    The Party, Johnson, and others, are ignoring the fact that Wisconsin has a primary on 9/14 and Johnson has 2 primary opponents. There is a very large group of “real grassroots” patriots that are not only praying that the only true conservative in the race wins, but they are also working very hard to make it a reality! Dave Westlake could very well be Wisconsin’s Joe Miller.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I don’t want this thread to be threadjacked into discussion of primaries in progress.

  • Oz

    I’m assuming that is because we already have enough of those and not enough of the “The Primaries are over.”

    Really hoping that Fiorina, Angle, Kirk, and Rossi can pull these out and put us over the top.

  • IJB

    …While Whitman has… well, she’s performed about as expected. (FTR, I think Whitman will win CA GOV fairly easily.)

    As for Angle, she defied the “country bumpkin” insults, and showed she could take advice and put together a likely winning team.

  • ciscoguy

    Boxer is an arrogant imbecile and should have been very easy to embarrass, but in Carly’s defense, she’s not a seasoned politician and there aren’t too many Republicans who can effectively articulate the tenets of Constitutional Conservatism anyway. On the other hand, she’s not the rigid Consitutionalist Chuck DeVore is. Joe Miller may be the best guy I’ve seen so far who can do just that.

    I’ve said this before, but no Republican should give any speech or really any answer to a tough question without referencing the Constitution. The modern leftist agenda advances his causes illegitimately through perverting the Constitution’s meaning, and this needs to be exposed at every turn. Ask where the Constitution calls for any kind of national entitlement program, abortion, compulsory health care or any kind of special service and where the authority for these mandates and provisions come from? As Jefferson once put it, “In questions of power, then, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.”

  • redneck_hippie
  • IJB

    …But Fiorina’s closing was extremely strong, while Babs’ was tired, cliched, solutionless and angry.

    If you went just off the closing statements, Fiorina blew Boxer out of the water.

  • rdelbov

    I hope this comment fits with this thread but you did mention Mark Kirk. Illinois is in bad need of electoral reform as it does a disservice to its voters. They had a primary on 02-02-2010 for a November 2 General election. The stupid filing dateline was back in November 2009. There is no legitmate excuse for why this has not changed. That’s why we have Kirk–states rights are fine but we see clearly what having a November 2009 filing deadline brought us. Now that’s my little diversion.

    My RTL friends will not let me say that Carly F is 100% pro life because she has a nuanced position on stem cell research. Her position is not inconsistent with others who are generally considered Pro life.

    There are conservatives who rate candidates as conservative based on how fast they come to a particular view as opposed to how hard they cling to a view once they reach a stand on it. Since Carly F has not been a career pol a lot of issues are new to her but once she decides she stays there. Kudos to her

  • Stan(ley) Pruss

    I speculate that Democrat’s may neglect Nov. election preparing for Feb. primary. They will be collecting nominating petition signatures from late Sept. until late Nov. Lots of candidates will all be trying to raise money.

  • jackhammer

    She is performing better than expected,a dn she is sticking to her guns in a way people didn’t expect. I was sort of taken aback at Erick’s hit job on her the other day.

  • Wine Country Dog

    and she did very well. Her answers to questions were clear and concise, balancing her strong points with a few nice punches thrown at Babs. She didn’t get all softball questions – at one point they asked Carly about the HP jobs moved or lost and she was straightforward with her answer. They asked Carly what she thought Babs’ IQ number is, which Carly rightfully turned around with “that’s not for me to say”. When they asked her about her wealth, she talked about how she started out as a secretary and her husband started out as a tow truck driver, and their success came from hard work – also pointing out that our country is built on personal success. I’m happy to support Carly, especially when the collateral benefit is telling Babs “Ma’am, you’re fired!”

  • finaljeopardy

    Not bad for a gadfly! Angle won a Supreme Court case named for her. She took a local issue about property taxes all the way to the highest court in the land. That is the kind of principled fighter the Tea Party should and did back. Danny Tarkanian barely gained traction. Sue Lowden endorsed Obamacare. Both of these candidates should have gracefully endorsed the winner in their primary, instead of knifing the voters and the party. Now that Angle has won, every Republican should support her against Harry Reid, unless something she has said or done reflects poorly on the party.

  • mboyle1988

    Johnson has consistently posted a 1 point lead, and those polls are without leaners. He had a 2 point lead in one poll, but there’s no statistical difference between a 1 point lead and a 2 point lead. Johnson is endorsed by Jim DeMint. You don’t get more conservative than that.

  • jb13

    Neil, I am interested to hear your rationale to back your assertion that Kirk’s win was guaranteed if only he had not made a critical mistake.

    As someone who lives in Illinois, I know from personal experience that no statewide race has ever been a “sure pickup” for any Republican since Jim Edgar was elected governor the last time.

    No matter how the wave may be breaking nationally, the Democrat lemmings in the city of Chicago will always provide a counterbalance to any Republican wave in Illinois. Alexi Giannoulias was going to make the race close. The fact that Alexi G. is such a bad candidate is the only reason this race is close at all.

    Ultimately, the weakness of Pat Quinn as a gubernatorial candidate could be the determinant in the Senate race, as well. If Republicans turn out in force to vote for Brady, and Democrats are uninspired by Quinn (and who wouldn’t be?) Kirk will get pulled across the finish line ahead of Giannoulias.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I don’t want this thread hijacked for primaries in progress.

  • Oz

    The dropped four bombs that all heavily favor the Democrat (they have Rand and Conway even for instance the same day that Rasmussen has Rand up +15) ….

    Is this expecting more turnout than other pollsters?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I just gone done putting up a post at UV (and crossposted to here, queued for 2 minutes from now) explaining away that awful Gallup. :)

    I will look though.

  • IJB

    Based on the CNN/Time polls, Meg Whitman may be up by more in CA than I thought!

    Why? Because every other one of those CNN/Time polls skewed heavily Democrat. (The Rand in KY thing is a case in point – 2 polls come out in the last few days showing Rand at +15; and then CNN/Time comes out showing it A TIE?! The shows how skewed their polls are! Their FL GOV and CA SEN polls are also a case in point…)

    Anyway, even CNN/Time shows Whitman at +2 – if they have Whitman at +2, then maybe Rasmussen’s previous poll showing Whitman at +8 was right after all!! :)

  • IJB

    That explains the Dem-skew to their results.

    Factoring that in mind, these polls are actually all good for Rand, Whitman, Fiorina and esp. Rubio!! :D

  • AKSteveB

    I’ll never protest anyone’s right to donate/get involved with out of state races. I’ve done some of it myself post Obama. Especially in Congress, votes affect everyone. I do ask for two things though

    1) You are correct. Local people have a feel on the ground that outsiders just aren’t going to get overnight, or in one election cycle. You don’t have to do what we say, but you should at least listen.

    2) Remember, after the election is done, and people go back to their lives wherever they live, the people in that state have to live with the results. Tread lightly. I would never wish what happened to Alaska in 2008, with the McCain campaign running roughshod here (or for that matter, what has happened in Arizona post SB1070) on any other state.

  • franklin50

    Nothing will demoralize the Marxist left more than an Angle win in NV. All republicans and conservatives need to come together to get her over the finish line. This is one of the top 1 or 2 races in the country and the symbolism cannot be understated if Reid goes down. With a Reid loss and republican control of at least the house, establishment republican congressmen/women (read: liberal) will fall in line with the conservative leadership.

  • jb13

    But did you seriously think that those numbers were really going to hold up in a state in which the Dems control both houses of the state legislature, all statewide offices and elected Rod Blagojevich twice? I never had such faith.

  • jb13

    That this race with a flawed GOP candidate was destined to tighten, no matter what Rasmussen said in May or June.

  • calgacus

    It is unfortunate, and I am sorry to say it, but it is true. No one is really persuaded by 10th amendment arguments. Let’s face it- how many of us on RedState support a national ban on partial birth abortion? If you argue based on the Constiution, then there is always another argument- why not amend the constitution? If an individual mandate is un-constitutional, then why not just amend the constitution? The truth is that if most people understood what a federal government that followed the constitution would look like they would be frightened out of their wits.

  • mbecker908

    about the Constitution.

    From your sole example. Abortion, if you believe that life begins anywhere near conception, is a denial of fourth amendment rights to a human being.

    Argue drugs, argue gay marriage, argue any of a thousand Libertarian issues and you can make a reasonable case. Argue about the murder of the most innocent of our citizens and and you just make a fool of yourself.

  • redtillimdead

    Is statistically insignificant and I’d rather have Johnson who leads by 1 than Westlake who trails by high-single digits.

  • redtillimdead

    Even the MSM is saying that. She was more prepared than Boxer, new the issues better, and seemed more in touch with the issues that face CA voters today, like the economy and jobs. She also established an emotional connection to the audience that Boxer could never hope to.,

  • redtillimdead

    Before the story, he was far from a lock to win. He only led Alexi by a few points. Hughes would have never led, so Kirk is still stronger. The fundamentals of the race favor Kirk. He has gotten back on offense, and has risen in the polls in the last few weeks. He is also raising more money and has more CoH while Alexi struggles to raise money, and he has gotten big commitments from the NRSC, while the DSCC may abandon Alexi.

  • redtillimdead

    Were Registered Voters, not likely. Likely voters favors us. That means Whitman is probably up by quite a few more points than they say, Fiorina and Boxer are probably tied, with Fiorina possibly ahead (would match LV SUSA and Ras polls), Scott and Sink tied, Rubio leading by about 5+.

  • clintonformccain

    I picked Dems in the House at 197. In the Senate, I picked 52 Republican, 48 Democrat with Repubs sweeping all the contested races including Calif, Wash, and Connecticut, except I had Gianoullias winning in Ill.

    Why? Just a hunch. In a tsunami election, I figure it would be apt if the Dem machine in Chicago manages to elected the idiot mob banker. It would be like the cherry on top of what the Democrat party has become.

  • merryj1

    at all of the cemeteries to keep the residents from getting to the polls.

  • merryj1

    was a response to “Kirk will be pulled across the finish line….”

  • thetroll01

    My sentiments, exactly! Well said.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Open your eyes and you’ll see that IL voters HATE Giannoulias, hate Quinn, and are ready to elect Brady by a landslide. Kirk could have had the same landslide but he blew it.

  • calgacus

    The 4th amendment states “The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized”. I do not see any prohibition on abortion. Furthermore, this only applies to the federal government. Only the Warren Court in 1961 applied it to the states through the farce known as selective incorporation. I am sorry to say it but murder is not un-constitutional. Furthermore, the federal government has no authority to make it a crime. When Washington was President, there were only three federal crimes. I should note that I support the ban on partial birth abortion. 90% of what the Federal government does is un-constitutional. In order to have government within the confines of the Constitution you would have to have to get rid of most of the departments. Most of the stimulus was un-constitutional, but no one cares. They only care if it is effective or not. We live in a bread and circus country. Therefore, we have to make arguments that said legislation would be bad even if it were constitutional. The individual mandate is un-constitutional. But you know what? You can always amend it. Therefore, why don’t you support amending it? We must then explain why it is bad on policy grounds.

  • mbecker908

    your reading comprehension is zero and you have no absolutely nothing about either the Constitution or the law.

    You can go back to Nickelodeon now.

  • Achance
  • acat

    (and it gets tiring!)

  • JSobieski

    “half-truths are often more insidious than total falsehoods.”

    Samuel P. Huntington

    First, the Constitutional argument for saying abortion would be prohibited is far stronger than the Constitutional argument saying abortion is a Constitutional right. If incorporation of the 4th Amendment via the 14th Amendment is a farce, are there sufficient words to describe the illegitimacy of Roe v. Wade? One farce does not pour into concrete a far greater farce. You should also note that many pro-lifers on this site are not pushing for a federal law or a Constitutional amendment to address abortion–we are instead focusing on overturning Roe v. Wade.

    Second, you are correct in that the 4th Amendment applies to government, but the failure of a state government to outlaw murder would be a Constitutional violation by THE STATE, NOT THE MURDERER. You will also note that the US Constitution requires a republican form of government in all states, so yes, the Constitution can place affirmative as well as negative requirements on states. Your half truth is that murder is not unconstitutional, but such a fundamental failure by the state to outlaw murder almost certainly would be found unconstitutional. There is also a decent argument that could be made in response to an attempt by a state to revoke its common law of contracts and tort liability.

    Third, while one can argue in good faith that there is no requirement that the federal government create a statute pertaining to murder, there is certainly no prohibition against such an action and numerous constitutional bases for doing so. Again, the distinction between may and must is critical to any legal analysis, and to purposely conflate the two is not the sign of someone arguing in good faith.

    Fourth, people do care about the stimulus
    and the abandonment of the Constitution. Ever hear of the Tea Party? The fact that people also argue it is bad does not undercut in any way any constitutional arguments. To the contrary, the goal of avoiding unconstitutional behavior is enhanced if you can stop it regardless of what is in the head of the legislators. If someone has a gun to my head, and I can convince them that my cat is an alien telepath who will reward them for putting the gun away, I don’t consider the outcome to be some sort of travesty even if it is not optimal.

    Fifth, if someone (whether in good faith or not) suggests a Constitutional Amendment, is not the proper response to say why that is a bad idea on “policy grounds”. After all, a Constitutional Amendment cannot be unconstitutional, can it? For example, a ruling by the US Supreme Court that a validly enacted Constitutional Amendment to exclude flag burning from First Amendment Proection somehow violated the First Amendment is to abandon self-government and comprehensively enshrine a dictatorship of the Courts. So if the issue is phrased as a potential amendment, the only possible substantive response is to “explain why it is bad on policy grounds.” Procedurally speaking, amendments are legitimate even if stupid, which is why the argument in fact must be “why it is bad on policy grounds.”

    The deep dark secret of a Constitutional Republic is that from a purely procedural standpoint, the Constitution could be amended to remove all of the Bill of Rights. While contrary to the spirit of the Constitution, and contrary to the intentions of the Founders, the Constitution could be amended such that the Bill of Rights were rescinded.

    Should someone ever try to do this, I suspect the response will be to say “why it is bad on policy grounds”. Self government is a messy business. Snide comments, woe is me whining, and misleading half truths don’t make it easier or better.

  • JSobieski

    “proud” sarcastically.

  • calgacus

    It is exclusively a state issue; as are almost all issues. But the reality is, people do not like ‘state’s rights’ except when the Feds are about to do something they do not like. For example, Hurricane Katrina help from the Feds was a violation of the 10th amendment.