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And now the mirror image of North Carolina: Connecticut

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 10th, 2010 at 03:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Blumenthal McMahon

Much as Richard Burr has underperformed in the view of many, so too is Democrat Richard Blumenthal having more trouble than expected to shake Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race.

And while it is Rasmussen’s second consecutive single-digit gap that inspires this post, Quinnipiac also has it at 10, a long way from the D+41 of January.

So yes, Rasmussen had it at +7 last month, but now it’s +9 after the leaners are included: Blumenthal 53, McMahon 44 (MoE 4.5). For some races, an 84% chance that the frontrunner is ahead wouldn’t be newsworthy or interesting at all. But again, back in January the matchup was off the scale at Blumenthal 58, McMahon 34.

15 points is a long way for a race to swing. Does McMahon have another 9 in her to tie it up? Those last 9 will be much harder to get than the last 15 (or even the first 31 from Quinnipiac’s +41 to +10 swing), because she’s already won the primary and now has to battle Blumenthal head to head.

Plus, if Blumenthal ever shows any actual weakness, a small state like this is ideal for the cash-strapped Democrats to spend on for great leverage. But the fact that we even have to consider that possibility is all it takes to know that McMahon has turned a non-competitive race into one with possibilities for the Republican Party.

Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • mboyle1988

    Love her. Not trying to be a debbie downer, but if she was going to make a move, now would have been the time to do it. WV, for example, showed two consecutive tightenings in the polls. Also, McMahon has 49% negatives, including nearly 30% very negatives. Blumenthal is universally well liked. I don’t know why, but I’ve basically given up on the northeast for some time now. Who knows. Maybe McMahon will surprise us.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • jb13

    McMahon’s strong(ish) showing in Connecticut will divert valuable Democrat resources into Conn. and away from other winnable races, like WV, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania and California. Maybe not much, but every little bit counts when you’re trying to get to 10 wins.

  • rdelbov

    on CT and I know the world is anxious for it. Neil is always quick to mention MOE and he’s right. This poll while its at +9 could be near even after you factor in MOE.

    I personally think this poll is a bit too liberal/democratic and here is why.

    Obama’s approval is at 55%. National RAS has the approval at 42%-that’s among likely voters. Yes Obama did better in CT then nationally but not by the difference between 55% and 42%.

    This poll is just a bit too liberal and I think that relates back to why the Blumenthal margin spiked up.

    Not saying who win but I do believe on election day the result will much closer then 9%.

    I do not write this state off. I personally do not believe that other then on the Yale Campus-Obama is not at 55% approval in CT.

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    This is your bailiwick, and I look forward everyday to some news from the front. You’re RS’s Richard Harding Davis. These pitpickers, screw ‘em. Things are looking up and daily you chronicle it. Good show.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Feedback is so important, thank you.

  • rdelbov

    also add my thanks to your posts on polls. I look forward to reading them.

    Here’s my only concern what are you going to do as we get closer to election day?

    You could see-like we did in 2008 three polls from the same race in the same week times 57 states.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m able to do as many as I do because I’m trying to turn UnlikelyVoter.com into a successful business.

    But as long as my income from that is limited, I can only do so much.

    I’ll be relying more heavily on my overall projections as we get closer. I’m already doing those weekly.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • IJB

    A common pattern in election polling is for somebody (and it’s often Dem incumbents…) to get a post Labor Day “bounce”. Usually, then, the challenger redoubles in advertising, and the “bump” is erased by mid-Oct.

    (McCain’s mini polling “surge” in 2008 is just one example of this.)

    (In fact, I thought we might see something like that in the Generic Ballot polling, though it hasn’t seemed to happen yet…)

    As long as McMahon doesn’t panic, and stays focused, this race is still totally winnable – she just needs to peel off about 5% of Blumenthal’s current support, a totally doable thing.

  • chipbennett

    Somewhat unexpectedly, I have found myself looking for your posts more than anyone except, perhaps, for Moe’s posts. Please keep doing what you’re doing!

    Someone mentioned Brown in Massachusetts. Do you see the CT race in any way resembling the MA race? I don’t know enough about the demographic and other differences (from my Midwest perspective, they’re both Northeast, liberal states) to hazard a guess – although I did find myself this morning wondering how far behind Brown was at this point in his race.

    My intuition tells me that CT is winnable, but I really have nothing empirical on which to base that intuition.

  • rdelbov

    about CT & MA was addressed to Neil but I have handy dandy reference stuff always near by. MA was 62% Obama and CT was 61% Obama. The big ethnic blocs there are AA-Italian-Irish and CT/MA are fairly close in similar numbers of each group. Both have all democratic delegates except for Brown & Lieberman. These both have College towns-gritty blue collar working class cities/towns plus high end suburbs that drifted away from Bush type republicanism.

    You would hardly know it but less then ten years ago CT had three GOP congressman.

    So yes its fairly similar. Blumenthal and Coakley-IMO-are two peas in a pod.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    To have a special election during the runup to major legislation is unusual. Brown was able to tap into excitement around that and run with it.

    I think Blumenthal though is just starting to have weaknesses exposed. He had his own fudged-records issue that we saw with Kirk, and that can’t help him.

    Beyond that we’re also seeing the traditional impact of the party coming together after a lengthy and divisive primary. McMahon is the nominee and people who backed other candidates are coming to terms with that and getting behind her.

    If I recall correctly that CT primary was especially weird because there was a candidate that “quit” but stayed on the ballot anyway, and even did better in the polls after “quitting.”

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Brown’s emphases on ObamaCare and the proposed KSM “OJ” trial in NYC, but your characterization of the particular circumstances of the timing of the special election does not, in any way, negate the overall effect of the recession on the upcoming vote.

    Reagan’s GOP suffered a huge loss in 1982 for the same reason. One reason this 2010 election will be infinitely worse is the revulsion of so many Americans with the above issues.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The national climate, and the economy in particular, are a drag on every Democrat.

  • snopercod

    The only complaint I’ve heard is that he added a lot of earmarks. If you investigate like I did, you’ll find that almost 100% of them were for the troops. I’m having difficulty criticizing the man for that.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • snopercod
  • Jack_Savage

    Neil has always had this uneasy feeling about Burr, despite his solid credentials as a conservative. I have tried to come up with an explanation but can’t put my finger on it exactly – maybe you could help.

  • lineholder

    I can only give you my impression of Burr. From what I can tell, he falls to the side of being conservative, but he just doesn’t seem to have much “fire in the belly” about him, so to speak.

    If he does, now is the time for him to let be seen. And if there’s any state where its badly needed right now, NC is that state. Conservatives here need an inspiring figure to lead them.

  • proudgop

    I was in Ct over Labor Day weekend for while didn’t really see anything on ground indicating anything for Republicans

    Its highly likely the GOP is going to lose Gov Race and the polls indicate Blumenthal hasn’t been hurt that much by Vietnam issue. The McMahon camp is still hitting on it I just don’t think its getting any traction

    McMahon needs to try to tie herself to Rell, hit out on taxes ( CT has a lot high income people) and how that will impact their health care

  • Jack_Savage

    There are so many conservatives here, but the Dems have done a good job of constructing a political machine and there is really no conservative leadership. This state is as corrupt as LA, but Burr seems to be content to be the Senator whose name you can’t remember.