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A rainbow of polls in Nevada

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 15th, 2010 at 12:00 PM  | 

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Angle Reid

Real Clear Politics showed 21 polls yesterday, plus we’re already at 5 today, so I’m grateful that some of them can be done in batches as with this bunch on the Nevada Senate race from Ipsos for Reuters, Rasmussen Reports, and POR for Fox News.

If we color Republican advantages in red, leads for Democrats in blue, and ties in green, then this set is a rainbow of results. Not a full rainbow or a double rainbow though, sorry.

So yes, as implied above, Democrat Harry Reid leads one poll – from Ipsos/Reuters – 46-44, MoE 4.6. Republican Sharron Angle leads one poll – from Fox News – 45-44, MoE 3. And they’re tied at 48 in the Rasmussen Reports poll.

This seems to be another slight move Angle’s way, after the previously-detected slight move Reid’s way, which just goes back to what I’ve been saying for a while: the normal state of this race is a tie. This may be the race we watch recounted in November, which would not be a first for Reid. He had a very close shave against John Ensign, when that Republican made his first Senate run.

I also expect that with Nevada’s relatively low but concentrated population, and the tiny margin of this race, that it will have the highest leverage of outside money of any Senate race this year. Nevada voters will probably be well tired of the television ads by the time election day finally arrives.

And here’s where you can give to Sharron Angle.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    Do you think that as we approach the actual election (with all the obscene amounts of advertising/reporting that come along with it) that we are more likely to see races shift even more to our side or slightly back towards the D’s? My fear is that we are at about our peak “motivation level” while the D’s are still way down, but will come around some by election day, thus I would expect to see many of these polls (likely voters only) shift 2-3 points D by election day. What say you?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Democrats are going to have to be selective in what races they contest, and they could force gains their way in some races.

    But others they’ll have to give up on, and those are more likely to show steady moves toward us.

  • eburke
  • congressworksforus

    Which is another reason why the DE result last night is good for us. Now the Dems have to spend money in DE, money they probably weren’t going to spend if Castle had been the nominee.

    This takes away money from other races. Perfect world !

  • acat

    Castle seemed to have the numbers to make the DE race a contest so, either way, the Dems would have ended up spending money.

    Less money, mind, than they’d have spent to prop up the Biden dynasty, but – what Reagan proved in geopolitics ought to apply in national and regional politics as well – that is, it’s possible to spend your opponent to death.

    Mew

  • rdelbov

    I have looked over these polls and there are usually three things I look for.

    1. Obama approval numbers-that number is like taking temperature. Current RAS is 34 strong-12 weak approval for 46. The last RAS was 48% approval for Obama has dropped a bit and yes Angle is closer in RAS

    2. Then I look to see how each candidate fares among indies/Republican/democrats. She has picked up some votes among indies and that gets her to the lead.

    3. Plus the partisan mix and apparently -that the D/R/I mix-the likely voter model is helping Angle out.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    If you recall, Thune taking out Daschale was a very close contest in the polls leading up to the election. Without looking it up, I think Thune ended up winning by 1% or so. Asking a state to throw out the majority leader is a tough thing to do, no matter what the level of unpopularity.

    What strikes me is the Rasmussen 48-48 tie. This leaves 4% of the electorate on the table, which is an astonishingly small amount 60 days out from the election (yes I know his poll includes leaners). Most other polls have numbers like 46-44, showing 10+% of the voters haven’t made up their minds.

    This all raises an interesting question for me, what could Reid do to increase his support between now and 11/2? Most of the opinions of him in Nevada are baked into the cake now, and his strategy is to drive up the Angle negatives. I can’t see any substantive action he can take before the election that will increase his support. Sure there will be political theater with “October Surprises” but those will be annoying talking points that won’t move voter opinions (Does he REALLY think people will vote for him because of the Lilly Ledbetter law?).

    As long as Angle keeps fighting back against Reid’s negative ads, I think we will be seeing this as a 48-48 tie up until 10/31. Then that 4% will either break on way or another, or stay home. If they stay home, then it comes down to who can get their voters to the polls and who can control the recount and make boxes of absentee ballots appear. If that is the case, Reid will likely win.

    I am hoping that the long anticipated “Contract with America v2.0″ will help move a few points of folks across all the races, including this one.

  • crosley

    The fact that the incumbent Senator who also happens to be the Majority Leader in the Senate can’t break 50% tells me he’s most likely going to lose.

    Nevada is a red-leaning state and Republicans would walk barefoot across broken glass to vote this election. I see that putting Angle over the top.

    Angle wins, but against Harry Reid this shouldn’t even have been a close race.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Its raw numbers will be higher.

  • IJB

    My “projection” of what we’re likely to see is some movement back to the Dems in Sept. (and, indeed, that has apparently happened in a few House races in the country like SD-AL and NY-03), followed by a final ‘bounceback’ to the GOP in Oct. when all of these challengers *really* start advertising.

    What’s been amazing to me is that, on the Senate end at least, we *haven’t* seen really *any* movement back to the D’s so far this month. If that stays true the rest of Sept., most of these Dems will get BLOWN OUT in these Senate races!!

    (GOV’s races, OTOH, are a whole different kettle of fish – expect many of these GOV’s races to close in Oct.: the GOP candidates that are ahead now are still likely to win those GOVs races, but they won’t be winning them by 10% margins on Election Day…)

  • IJB
  • IJB

    But, getting back to Dave_in_FL’s example, IIRC, Thune actually lead in some of the very late polls back in 2004.

    I expect Angle will start showing a 1-2% lead by late Oct. If she does, she’ll win it.

  • crosley

    I agree that if if the polls are like this in late October, it’s going to be a squeaker if Angle wins, but I think she still has the slight edge.

    Thune was a much stronger challenger, and South Dakota was a much more conservative state, so it is worrisome that the actual results were so close in that race with similar polling

    Had a candidate of Thune’s caliber been nominated in Nevada, Reid would be losing by 10 points. This election needs to be all about Reid for Angle to win.

  • IJB

    It’s *really* HARD to beat a sitting Majority Leader.

    If you do, you’re likely to do it by only 1-2%, maybe 3-4% on the best day.

    I guess the main difference is that Thune managed to take out the sitting Majority Leader when the economy was still pretty good – that shows the strength of his candidacy, though as you say he pulled that off in a GOP-leaning state.

    Angle’s advantage is that she’s taking Reid on in a terrible economy. The thing working against her is that NV is a ‘swing’ state.

    Different circumstances, same likely outcome: a “squeaker” win by 1-2% (either way)…

  • Dave_in_Fla

    But yes, I know Ras has leaners in it. Even so, 4% is an awfully low number. I think in 2008 Ras was still showing 6% undecided with leaners a week before the election between McCain and Obama.

    It seems like a lot of people in Nevada have made up their minds now.

    Not to threadjack, but I’m hoping the same dynamic is working in Florida. That the Sink 47% is her high water mark, and the 12% still undecided are letting themselves get comfortable with Scott. It will really suck the fun out of November 3rd, if I’m having to think about living with a Dem governor for 4 years. Of course, you could argue I already have ;)

  • mustangsally

    If I was playing texas hold em~ I would go all in. Stand up and make these liberal progessives play it out, same for the intrenched repubs/rinos. The RNC coming out and saying they won’t play cuz they don’t like their hand says alot of their values, says alot on how they, along with the dems STILL have a deaf ear of WE THE PEOPLE want!!!! For the RNC to back a rino makes me sick. I sure hope they wake up and LISTEN to their employers or we will continue to be ruled by the progressives. We can do this, we can slap Biden hard by putting a REAL conservative in his seat, Same for Reid. This, I am sure will make Pelosi’s face lift sag like a deflated balloon. OOOOh not a pretty picture. GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS TRUE CONSERVATISM.

  • rdelbov

    this only once today so for emphasis I will repeat it.

    The GOP set a midterm primary turnout record in WI on Tuesday and apparently in DE as well. +20 states have set similar GOP midterm turnout records for primaries in 2010.

    For the 1st time since 1930 GOP primary turnout exceeded democratic primary turnout.

    I want to move to the Right (to the republican side) all these polls. I see the signs and I know MOE is working there.

    So in a state like NV when the early voting starts next month I see people talking to people and a big Angle occurs. I see in the turnout numbers and I also see it when Reid only gets 75% of the vote in the democrat primary. These polls show him get +90(in some cases) of the democrat vote. Yet earlier this year he got only 75%.

  • NeoKong

    In they go in at a tie it will go to Angle.
    The polls number can be deceiving because it’s easy for a rReid supporter to say they will vote for him while at home but will they actually get out and vote….?
    I think however that all the Angle supporters are champing at the bit to get out and vote.
    Turn out will decide it.

    I also think that the Nevada race will hurt the other races.
    They will go to the Alamo to save his seat and that will starve the other races of cash.
    Same thing with Boxer.

  • Dave_in_Fla

    Ras released Florida, Ohio and Penn polls today. Leaving out Florida because it is a 3 ways race, both the Ohio and Penn polls (including leaners) have 10% undecided.

    Nevada its 4%.

  • Achance

    the unionized entertainment, lodging, and gaming employees in Vegas and Reno. The RNC ought to be recruiting all the lawyers it can to be in those cities on election day and during the vote count. Angle will be fine in suburban, exurban, and rural NV, but the potential for voter fraud in the two urban areas portends another Rossi v. Gregoire if we don’t learn lessons from that.

  • Jack_Savage

    We need to get lawyered up, and soon.

  • nvrepub

    nt

  • IJB
  • AceInTX

    since indies/undecideds usually brake against the incumbent at the last minute when it’s close?

  • IJB

    And the less-than-satisfying answer is: it depends on the macro political environment, and the specific candidates.

    In an environment like 2010, I think they odds are very, very high that undecideds will break *heavily* AGAINST the incumbent in most races this year.

    But there are other years, and other races, where undecideds actually broke TO the incumbent, or to the quasi-incumbent, at the last minute (think Bush v. Gore in 2000).

    So, while I think it’s more often true than not that “undecideds break to the challenger”, there are definitely instances where the opposite has actually happened.

  • AceInTX

    which makes the likelihood of an Angle win all the more likely no?

  • Adjoran

    They have this idiotic ballot spot for “None of the above” which always draws a few, so it is possible to win a two-candidate race with less than 50% of the vote, and this is precisely Reid’s strategy.

    Even with Angle’s occasionally controversial statements, she is clean ethically, and in a one on one ballot should edge out Reid. There is just so much he can gain at this point, and it’s a very tiny number.

    He’s already got all the incumbent support and bounce off his Majority Leader position he can. What good has all that done Nevada? Their 14% unemployment is among the highest in the nation. It’s not like they’re drinking free Bubble-Up? and eating that Rainbow Stew with Harry in office . . .

    So his plan – the ONLY chance he has if Angle doesn’t self-destruct – is to drive up her negatives enough to make some voters select “None of the above,” and pray that enough do to allow him a squeaker of a plurality win at say, 48.3 – 48.25%.

    It ain’t much, but then, neither is Harry.

  • IJB

    Which is why people in this thread are saying that if it’s “tied” going into Election Day, Angle will win.

    Really, with the NV SEN polling, AFAIAC the *only* important number if Reid’s ‘top-line’:

    - If Reid goes into Election Day polling at around 45%, he loses. Period. I don’t care what Angel’s number is: if Reid’s at 45%, he loses.
    - Reid being at around 48% becomes a ‘gray’ area (esp. if Angle is also around 48%) – then if comes down to things like “Can Reid and the Unions get turnout?”
    - Reid at 50% going into Election Day would start to be the ‘Danger Zone’… – it starts to get very hard to Angle to win then, unless Reid’s supporters end up not showing up to the polls.
    - And if Reid gets to polling up about 52% going into Election Day, then it’s probably over.

    But, yeah – in this current election, I do NOT expect Reid to pick up many people who are undecideds near Election Day (and, by Ras polling, there aren’t that many of those, anyway!). Not this year…