« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

No progress for Jack Conway

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 15th, 2010 at 10:30 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Paul Conway

The last time Public Policy Polling hit the Kentucky Senate race, Republican Randal Paul had squandered a huge lead. Democrat Jack Conway had pulled within 7 in the Rasmussen poll back at the end of June, and he was even tied in the PPP poll of Registered Voters.

PPP (this time for Daily Kos) is polling Likely Voters now, and it’s not good news for Conway.

If we read this poll, Kentucky voters don’t like many people. Barack Obama is -23 in favorability, Mitch McConnell is -9, the retiring Jim Bunning is -17, and Jack Conway is even. The only guy in the black in this poll is Randal Paul at +5. So it’s not surprising to scroll down and see that he heads the head-to-head 49-42 (MoE 3.2).

Conway just hasn’t many any progress since that initial set of gains he made after Paul’s well-promoted comments on the critical legislative issues of the 1960s. And even at his peak, he hasn’t led a single poll from PPP, Rasmussen, or SurveyUSA this year.

And it’s not a joke to say that Randal Paul’s supporters have been urging him to keep his mouth closed about such issues going forward, so any new momentum Conway gets he will have to make himself. He’s beginning to run out of time to do it, too.

From Unlikely Voter

Tags: , , , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • rdelbov

    united in KY around Paul–that helps him

    I might add that Castle-Murkowkski-Bennett-Didier-McCollom-Hayworth all need to learn from Grayson in KY. GOP candidates-when they lose-need to rally around the party that made their electoral careers possible

  • kentuckycolonel

    In reality, there was no huge lead squandered. Everyone in Kentucky knew that poll that showed Paul ahead by 20+ points was way off base. It was wrong and everyone knew it. D’s outnumber R’s by 60%. Paul will win it by 8 points or so, because not even the D’s can get excited about Conway.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Paul had *three* good polls well in double figures before the crash.

    But he’s recovered, and that’s what matters.

  • rdelbov

    like the SUSA poll a lot better then this PPP poll–not just poll picking and yes it had Rand +15.

    +15 and +9 with MOE factored in could be either be a +9 or +15 result. I just like the SUSA numbers better

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The margin of error is not a flat rectangle. It’s more of a bellish curve of some sort, centered on the reported value.

  • MarkByron

    and within the MOE 95% is the standard normal curve from statistics.

    Also, the Democrats in KY, especially the rural ones, have a conservative streak that has them voting Republican on the national and congressional levels, so the registration figures are a bit misleading.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But I don’t think that’s entirely accurate, because the two numbers in a head to head poll are not independent.

    It’s probably a good approximation though, which is why I use it.

  • Adjoran

    Politics ain’t beanbag, and it’s definitive not a field for those of tender sensitivities. But it is time for the losers to cowboy up and do the right thing.

    After a long and rough campaign, the loser is entitled to a few days to let it all sink in, cry a little, and contemplate returning to a normal life. But this is reality, so a week should be enough.

    Endorse the winner, even if the winner said he/she would not endorse you if you won. Be big about it, and people will remember you for it.

    Be a petulant and petty sore loser, and people will remember you for that.

  • Adjoran

    And it’s a very wise move. No unscripted interviews or interactions with the press.

    Keep him on message, and run out the clock. There is nothing the Democrats can do to beat him in Kentucky this year unless he were to self-destruct.

    It’s no panacea, since we will still have to deal with his nutty side and anti-national security/foreign policy beliefs once he is seated, but as Rumsfeld noted, “You go to war with the Army you have.”

  • audax

    Lets see if we can come up with a few more ‘nutty” Rand Paul ideas….less government regulation? lower taxes? right to life? I’m sure we could come up with a very long list of Rand Pauls “nutty” ideas from his “nutty side”….well if his ideas are :nutty:…..well…I must be nutty too.

    The RINO’s of the time tried to call Ronaldo Magnus “nutty: too, especially regarding his “nutty” “….national security and foriegn policy beliefs”…..now I KNOW I’m a nut because I agreed with everyone of them…especially the nutty idea that Gorbachov, if he believed in freedom, should come to Berlin, come to this wall, tear down this walll”…now that was ONE NUTTER belief! How about this “nutty” idea….”peace through strength”…or this one “consign communism to the dustbin of history”…a true nutter that Ronald Reagan.

    Good grief!