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The first post-primary poll in Delaware

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 16th, 2010 at 12:00 PM  | 

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Coons O'Donnell

I normally like to let these races rest a week before I start looking into the polling, but thanks to one pollster sitting on a pre-primary poll to drop the bomb after the primary, I thought I’d hit today the actual first post-primary poll of the race between Democrat Chris Coons and Republican Christine O’Donnell.

Before the primary, and especially before the primary got nasty, O’Donnell was running at about a 10% win probability. This Rasmussen poll is worse for her than that, as it puts the race at a 92/8 split for Coons. Coons leads the poll 53-42 (MoE 4).

In particular, the primary has lifted O’Donnell’s Very Unfavorable rating all the way up to 38%, putting her total favorability situation below zero at 42/54/5. Coons meanwhile, having coasted in the primary, sits at 58/34/8.

At this point I think Coons has one job, and O’Donnell has two. Coons has to race to redefine himself as voter attention returns to him. O’Donnell must redefine Coons and unify the Republican party after the primary. Interestingly enough, for O’Donnell the two tasks might be accomplished simply by attacking Coons.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • reaganauh2o

    But blue Delaware was red with the rest of the country in ’84 when Reagan was re-elected. With an economy rivaling the Carter years, common sense proven principles will prevail.

    Christine needs to stay on the high road and let the dirt mongers hoist themselves on their own pitard like Mike Castle did.

  • chipbennett

    That seems about right, and is consistent with the PPP poll, after discounting PPP’s bias.

    And, really, it’s about a best-case, post-primary scenario for O’Donnell.

    The question now is: how does she get 6% of the DE voters to switch votes?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Liberty.com and the gang need to be as nasty to Coons as they were to Castle.

  • Richard Mullins

    but no gay smears on Coons like you did with Castle. There is enough to hit Coons over without turning it into a sympathy fest for Coons. Nasty and Sympathy go hand in hand when it comes to politics.

  • natlanthem

    That is a perfectly believable polling result, except it discounts the huge difference expected in voter turnout. Republicans and like-minded independents are ACHING for election day to get here, like kids waiting on Christmas. They will swarm to the polls, and even with a normal D turnout, it will be a walkaway victory for O’Donnell.

    That said, with the cash she has received in the last 24 hours, it might be best to focus on tying the Pet to Reid and the D’s like an anchor. Coons is a marxist/socialist dead set on enslaving the productive citizens of DE and the country to debt and big govt control. TARP-loving, union snuggling, coward.

    Pwn him, Christine!

  • mboyle1988

    Unfortunately, we’re going to have to knock off all four western incumbents (Feingold, Boxer, Murray and Reid) to take back the senate. McMahon and Raese have much better chances than O’Donnell.

  • chipbennett

    I think we should all take Moe’s suggestion of making full use of the silver-platter served gift Harry Reid gave O’Donnell, and start referring to his “pet” Coons as Smeagol.

    So, O’Donnell trails Smeagol by 11 points, etc…

  • conservativemusician

    in a liberal state. This is definitely doable, but the turnout in DE will have to be massive.

  • mboyle1988

    Check this out: Jim DeMint has already raised 150k for O’Donnell. That’s encouraging, at least…If she gets enough money….maybe she can pull this out…but I still doubt it.

  • http://practicalgopvoter.blogspot.com/ texasproud

    not much of one, but Coons has not run a campaign with the attention level of a US Senate Race. I would not use the ’84 campaign as a comparison because that was 26 years ago, times have changed. Plus you had the best possible GOP candidate running against possibly the worst Dem candidate. Coons is going to have to pull a Coakley for this to be winnable which is possible.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    my guess is by the latter third of October the numbers are closer for O’Donnell.

    Delaware is a small state and she can traverse the counties- gratuitously in that time period. When the fine folks in Delaware have a chance to see she is NOT the caricature others have made her to be it will be a game changer.

    This election is about the failed economic policies of Democrats that have led to high unemployment and state fiscal train wrecks, like Delaware. If O’Donnell stays focused on the issues, Coons, who is an Obama/Democrat agenda supporter that already raised taxes on people in Delaware, will have a big spotlight on his head.

    Coons is just another slick-lawyer, bleeding heart liberal socialist who would immediately be part of the Democrat oligarchy that has destroyed our country. The people of Delaware are on their proverbial knees already. I am sure they don’t want someone to hit them again when they are down.

  • barbinca

    Christine O’Donnell has raised about $900,000 since Tuesday. That’s kind of impressive by any standard. And changes the dynamic in the race, mainly because watching Coons is like watching bread mold. O’Donnell is much more compelling and attractive by comparison. Now that she has the cash to get her vision and case in front of the voters, she will make this a close race.

  • mark1957

    If you want to continue down the road to economic ruin, vote Coons.
    If you want to stop the insane spending and save this great nation, vote O’Donnell. It is that simple,

  • http://wadingacross.wordpress.com logus

    – Oh, who am I to talk!

    Anyhow, these polls results tell me one thing – principle over strategy. Forget the game. Vote your heart (rooted in principles).

  • waxmanlaw

    Rasmussen does what I call projection polls as he attempts to project the election result with current data. That is why he includes leaners and has a small % of undecided. Without leaners the race is nine points 50-41, with nine undecided.

    At this point I don’t think included leaners is correct since the race is only two days old. By October 15th you can include leaners but the late primary and the upset winner has really scrambled this race. It looks more like a special election than a general election because Coons wasn’t running hard and everyone thought Castle would be the next Senator.

    I look at the race with the certainty %. In Nevada both candidates have about 90% certainty that their supporters have made up their minds. In DE Coons only has 78% and O’Donnell has only 68%. So the race is currently 40% – 27% with 33% up for grabs. Anyone’s race.

    I would agree with Neil’s analysis that O’Donnell needs to work twice as hard as she needs to increase her favorables and unify the Party while at the same time attacking the Pet Coons.

  • Locked and Loaded

    Keep talking. Soon you’ll be saying, She can do this!”

  • deano64

    Where have you been? She’s facing a self described Marxist. I say that fact alone gives her a shot. You can’t convince me the majority of Indpendents have a soft spot in their heart for a Marxist. There are probably a few Dems who aren’t going to warm up to that either.

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack
  • Locked and Loaded

    You did that on purpose, didn’t you?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • reaganauh2o

    However, we’re witnessing something that’s only possible in the age of the internet and new media. We have no Reagan to articulate the principles that permeate the silent majority who love and appreciate this amazing 234 year old experiment we live in.

    While the Keynesians postulate a ‘jobless recovery’, we are seeing a leaderless revolution. Our ‘leader’ is a set of principles that have been pushed aside by the ruling class of both political parties. To oust the chosen one in 2012, we will have to have a leader then to articulate these ideas.

    I love to quote Rabbi Daniel Lapin who states, “The more things change, the more we need to rely on things that never change.”

  • Marcus_Traianus

    left to the reader’s imagination and interpretation.

  • Kyle-MI

    Rasmussen also had a blurb saying that both candidates are well known throughout Delaware. I don’t quite buy that. O’Donnell is certainly better known because of the primary fight and now the national attention. I don’t believe Coons has run statewide before this and he did not have a primary opponent. How many know about the whole Marxist situation? There seems to be enough for the O’Donnell campaign to define him and drive up his negatives. It will still be a tough battle.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine
  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    He is “The Bearded Marxist” afterall.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Delaware is a tiny state with three counties. Coons is the County Executive of New Castle County, which by itself contains 2/3 of the state population.

  • natlanthem

    Just enough to get great coverage plus pay for the face-to-face time, and not enough to oversaturate and drive people away.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If the whole state is covered by Philadelphia media, then it’s more expensive than we may think.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    “That” being your personally accusing Neil of making bigoted attacks against gays.

    Blam.

  • Tbone

    On Jan. 20th, Scott Brown was a Republican, US Senator.

    I saw O’Donnell on TV last night and she handled herself pretty well.

    Besides, she has better hair.

    Does Coons look like Terry Bradshaw if Bradshaw only ate what Michelle Obama says we should eat?(Of course, the First Wookie being the do as I say , not as I do, type could sell billboard space on her butt)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • smitch61

    For Karl Rove, I may not get it back. I purchased his book last week and may now donate to the library. I was disgusted to see him the other night on Hannity, and his unprofessional behavior. Karl if you are reading, I realize you are an “analyst” and your job description is to analyze the political climate even if I do not always agree with you. I respect that. There is a right way and a wrong way to do things in life and you made a bad decision.

    Karl you had your Kanye West moment the other night when as the winner of the primary was in the middle of her acceptance speech you felt the need to stand up and proclaim Castle the better choice, singing his praises and knocking the winning candidate in the middle of what should have been an honorable moment for the voters who made their statement. The next day perhaps would have been the better time to analyze.

    The way in which Christine has handled herself since that night says a lot about her strength and her character. She would make a terrific senator based on that alone.

    I think a great ad for Christine would be to go out and make a video with normal run of the mill Americans proclaiming how long it took them to pay off their college loans. You see Karl, the American people relate much more to “those” type of people than they do to you.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    I don’t include you in “slick-lawyers”.

  • Viator

    I’m not from Delaware, so I just got a lot of exposure to her after her victory. I expected to be disappointed after all the dirt and criticisms. I think she is articulate, savvy, gracious and has a way of presenting herself which makes her immediately likable. She was on several less than friendly MSM or Lamestream TV Shows the next morning when she must have been exhausted. She acquitted herself well.

  • jomo2009

    his referring to himself in grad school as “The Bearded Marxist,” I suggest that here on out his moniker should be “the Bearded Clam.”

  • tngal

    asks the party to gather ’round O’Donnell. Hahhahahahaha! Tom Ross, head of the DE GOP had earlier made that dog catcher quip about Christine. But now….he’s seeking unity!

    “Ross said the state party has “reached out to the NRSC, NRCC [National Republican Congressional Committee] and RNC [Republican National Committee] to ensure that our candidates have as much support as possible.” So sayeth the Hill.

    The earlier comments by Ross, Rove and others have already caused serious damage. Hopefully gestures like this will help turn it around and improve the polls.

    Still waiting for Castle to climb on board . should be any minute now,

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/119233-del-gop-chief-says-its-time-to-come-together

  • Old_Dominion

    Most of the state is covered by the Philadelphia media market. The southern part of the state (Sussex County) is covered by the Salisbury, MD market. Either way you cut it, you have to buy Philadelphia TV and that ain’t cheap. And in the case of both markets, you (much like DE’s neighbor, New Jersey) are paying most of your money to reach people who can’t vote for you.

  • deano64

    Hannity has had Rove on his radio show every Thursday and apparently this was to continue throught the election but not today. Hmmmm interesting. All I can say it good for Hannity.

  • sundesy

    Historically America always bounced back from setbacks. Whether gaining back the lost business competitive advantage or military supremacy. I will go on a limb to say that O’Donnell win in the primary is going to be the turning point. I think GOP has a momentous opportunity to lead the people to the principles based on which America was founded. The principles that propelled America to be the greatest nation on earth.

    This is an opportunity to discuss conservatism in public without any reservations. Demonstrate the ill effect of liberalism and socialism.

    Federal, state, county and city governments are broke. People know that and somewhat resigned to the fact that the promised benefits have evaporated. Unabashedly advocate capitalism and exhaust the reliance on government. Demonstrate federal government has several non-fixable problems.

    1) Non viability of social security program in the current form and execute a transition to private market
    2) Non viability of welfare oriented government and execute a permanent shutdown of useless federal departments
    3) Failure of government driven education system and execute voucher based competitive market for K-12 education

    So that people will support the permanent closure of them.

  • earlgrey

    I am doing some GOTV calls for local races (a thankless job) and this guy was really mad. I forwarded his thoughts to the state R party. It made him a bit happier when I told him I would do that. Technology is great.

  • izoneguy

    Coons spokesman: ‘Chris is not anyone’s pet’

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Coons-spokesman-Chris-is-not-anyones-pet-103063494.html

    From the moment Reid’s words were reported, Republicans knew they had a new line of attack against Coons. That left Coons with little choice but to declare his independence from Washington Democrats. But at the same time Coons had been preparing to attack defeated Republican candidate Mike Castle for voting against Democratic initiatives like Obamacare and the stimulus. Now, with O’Donnell, who opposes virtually everything the Democratic Congress has done, Coons will be stressing his independence at the same time as he defends the Democratic line. It won’t be an easy task.

    Hmmmmm, seems like everyone wants to declare it’s independence from Washington…..Coons is such a tea-bagger.

  • lukematthews

    Reid’s ‘pet’ comment can become a great play for tying him in with the big spending Ruling Class the entire country is against. That coupled with is Marxism and O’Donnell using the Citizen Legislator could tip the scales. The independent moderates are really furious with the establishment right now. At a party this past weekend there was serious talk about voting for none of them, meaning incumbents, and that’s in crystal blue Minneapolis. I am pretty sure she can win.