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The first post-primary poll in New Hampshire

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 16th, 2010 at 05:30 PM  | 

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Ayotte Hodes

If I’m going to break my rule and talk about Delaware right away, then I might as well do the same and cover the new Rasmussen poll on New Hampshire, which is the first post-primary poll of that Senate race between Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Paul Hodes.

For a while there it wasn’t sure we’d get this matchup after all, but here we are.

So yes, Hodes has gotten a lift since the last poll. Ayotte’s lead as gone from 51-38 to 51-44 (MoE 4.5). I’m guessing the whole difference is in leaners, whom Rasmussen has included in this race for the first time.

This isn’t the first race I’ve seen this pattern in, either. Leaners seem to favor one side or the other, and in this case the weak support is with Paul Hodes. It’s not always the Democrat, either, even though it is here.

I’m not entirely sure what to think of leaners who are likely voters. We don’t think they’ll stay home, but they’re not particularly motivated to vote one way or the other. But they are there, and so this race is closer now. It’s now an 80/20 split per this poll, which again is down a bit for Ayotte, but still pretty comfortable for her.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • http://herbal-nutrition.net/Billga Bill

    Does Kelly need an immediate boost in FUNDS to help her cause? Anyone know the status?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But right now I’d give to Angle first.

  • lukematthews

    September is when the party leaners up their minds, which usually means the party at risk gets a little bump. However, the real head scratchers will be turning in October. By a two to one margin, they generally pick the challenger. That’s why there is always such a big deal made out of an incumbent below 50% before an election. They are bound to lose ground in the final decision making process. Most poli sci people believe this is because if they weren’t for the incumbent in the first place, they are waiting to see if the challenger makes a mistake. If they don’t, they pick them.
    Thanks for the post. It’s interesting.

  • Dan McLaughlin

    Last I saw he looked like he’s starting to pull away.

  • proudgop

    If you look at internals of the poll Ayotte has fav of 56% while Hodes only has 44%. Her unfav is 39% while his is 48%

    Obama’s approval is 47% in the state and disapproval 51%. My guess when all is said and done she wins around 53%; she could use money though cause she is pretty broke now

  • america1st

    as much a part of the Granite State as our much-beloved Old Man of the Mountains. Johnny Squatter’s coat tails may pull in a few, but not enough to save hodes.

  • NHConservative0227

    To everyone in NH that this is capitalism vs. socialism. All the voters need to know that yes it is that black and white.

    I’ll be writing my letters just like I did for the primary. We need everyone to start flooding newspapers, doing lit drops, making phone calls to make people aware of these clear cut distinctions.

  • http://herbal-nutrition.net/Billga Bill

    Wasn’t a lot, but I gave to Angle, Joe Miller and a small one to C. O’Donnell.