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It’s not us who should be afraid about California

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 20th, 2010 at 04:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Carly Fiorina

Last month there was a real shift in the California Senate polling. After the primary Babs Boxer was terribly underperforming her past elections, but she was at least ahead consistently. But starting in August, Carly Fiorina started taking leads.

Some say that the new PPP poll is reason to worry, but I don’t. PPP is a generally honest, reliable pollster in my experience, but that doesn’t mean every poll the firm puts out is right. I don’t think this one is predictive, and I also think Boxer has problems of her own to worry about in the coming weeks.

Yes, I like PPP, but I don’t like the new poll. As I pointed out at Unlikely Voter, the Likely Voter pool that PPP used seems to skew toward the Democrats, and in fact has slightly more Democrats than the Registered Voter poll found. Given that in most states, PPP is showing an intensity gap between the parties, for California to show no intensity gap, or even a reversed gap with Democrats more excited, makes no sense at all to me.

So this poll alone does not have me worried in the least, and more importantly, Boxer has problems of her own coming. Jim Geraghty at National Review Online is going to give her a bad week. Here is Part One of Five of his exposure of inconvenient truths about Boxer, in which he points out that Boxer has been funneling money to the family of the embattled Maxine Waters.

Geraghty makes it clear that Boxer’s issues only start here, too, by closing with this:

I suppose someone could argue that the Waters family is more morally culpable for this blatant auction of an endorsement. But when it comes to steering campaign funds to relatives, let’s just say Barbara Boxer isn’t one to throw stones. Stay tuned.

I look forward to the rest of this week’s Campaign Spot at NRO.

P.S. Don’t forget that it’s up to us to counter the millions that Planned Parenthood and the unions are willing to spend to defend their pet Boxer.

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  • Locked and Loaded

    Hah, didn’t think so!

  • http://thesandsinstitute.org Vassar Bushmills

    …so you’re right on all cylinders.

    But even if Boxer should win…and the hard money says she should…it is still so nice to see the teats throw fits. Boxer is of the Scarlett O’Hara school of foot stomping and lamp throwing, so that in itself is worth the price of admission.

    I’m with you, Kalifornians may think differently this time…the IT factor.

  • rdelbov

    Is off. It has a mix of voters of 49D-33R-18I—in 2008 it 42D-30R-28I. PPP has found a surge in democratic turnout in 2010.Every other poll has the republican voters being gung ho but not PPP in this one?

    Plus there are not enough indies. Check these last rounds of PPP polls and they undercount indies and yes the independent voters are going for the GOP.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Spartan4Life

    Does it feel like Boxer will win? If the people on the ground there feel in their guts like she is in trouble then she probably is.

    Watched that local newscast earlier where they were kind of ridiculing her for some of her statements about Porkulus. When you are running kind of an experienced favorite daughter campaign and the local press is making fun of you my guess is she might be in trouble.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    California in many ways operates like the country as a whole, only its squishy middle tilts left a bit.

    Winning elections here depends on spending real money, doing lots of GOTV, and all that other nitty gritty stuff.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    or, in your opinion are we just looking at a lot of voter frustration?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • IJB

    …This most recent poll shows *no* movement from PPP’s CA earlier polls.

    PPP can trumpet this all they want, but this result actually shows *no* movement to Boxer, and no movement away from Fiorina, compared to their earlier CA polls this year.

    Then, once you account for the Dem skew to this poll, the fact that Fiorina is pulling in over 10% of CA Dems (I can promise you, Boxer must be getting close to *0%* of CA Republicans!), and the fact that Fiorina is beating Boxer fairly handily with CA Indies, and you start to realize that the news from this poll is actually almost all bad for Boxer.

    (The best part about this is how badly Tom & co. are getting beaten up in their own blog comments section over this poll! – their response to the collective criticism that their sample if way to Dem-skewing is basically to shrug and nothing more!! Ah, it is to laugh…)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Being wrong is no reason to demonize PPP here. They have a lot of good polls out.

  • acat

    That’s as good a metric as any, I think…

    Mew

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    We’re still going to have the same old fight between the Rockefellers and the Reagans that our party’s been having since Reagan first ran for Governor.

    And I for one am glad of it.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Why is it only conservatives are accused of having “purity tests” but pro-abort Republicans get a pass on that?

  • Mary Beth

    Moderate and liberal Republicans don’t have those kinds of rules.

  • Tbone

    moral ambivalence as their fellow liberals and exclusionary attitudes of anyone not “smart” enough to think like they do. Self proclaimed, enlightened elitists of no discernible worth.

  • SteveLA

    acat

    Nope, there will still be a war between the SIVV types who demand a absolute stance on abortion to be supported and the rest of us, Pro-Abort RINOs.

    Of course the purity loving SIVV who have a death grip on the CA R party machinery up to this election haven’t won a state wide election with their purity test passing candidates in 10 years, but who’s counting?

  • SteveLA

    Neil

    I’m all for purity tests for CA R’s, I’m all for R purity on these issues.

    !) Control Spending/Fiscal Conservative Check
    2) Seal the border, end sanctuary cites Check
    3) Support Steve Knight’s CCW reform Check
    4) Increased funding for LE and more jails Check
    5) Water reform for the SJ valley Check
    6) School reform including teacher accountability Check

    Did I miss any?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Some death grip. No governor since Deuk. No Gov nominee since Simon and he only ran on parental notification.

    But you can’t even tolerate that slightest resistance to the Party of Death.

  • rdelbov

    PPP-they do put some good polls and kudos to them for giving details out that can be examined. We often see polls pushed out there without scant details.

    I don’t begrude Rasmussen’s desire to actual make money off polls but at times its a pain not to details.

    I think PPP can do excellent work.

    I do mistrust of their political conclusions.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    He lets his partisan views come through in his analysis. Which is his right. :)

  • Jack_Savage

    You completely overstate the conflict. There is no question that the GOP regards abortion law as settled, and is content to work around the edges of this barbarism for now. Sadly.

    You make it sound like moderates are locked in some sort of holy war with conservatives over abortion and gay rights, with moderates holding the majority view and conservatives using obscure parlimentary tactics to make an end-run around the will of the people. A prime example of people who hold this view is the now worthless Colin Powell, who actually regards Michael Bloomberg as the model Republican, while still happily endorsing Barack Obama. Now THERE’S an open mind and a winning strategy. Yessir.

    In every single instance, when pro-gay marriage ballot measures were put before the voters, they failed. If the American people were to see a late-term abortion (or even an early term) on national TV and understand exactly what Democrats and moderate Republicans fight for, there would be a popular revolt against abortion and abortionists.

    The question has always been overturning thousands of years of law and tradition in favor of gay marriage, and convincing conservatives it really is just a clump of cells, with no more meaning than a bothersome cyst. In every case, GOP moderates have failed to make any sort of persuasive argument – not only of why these two issues are not that big a deal, but how the GOP can win if it ran conservatives out of the party and became more moderate. Moderates instead generally rely on the whiny “purity test” argument.

    Hell, I would be elated if the GOP were all *fiscal* conservatives, much less social conservatives.

    Hearts and minds, Steve. Hearts and minds. Make the case.

  • emaberk

    in one state to differ or even completely oppose the National trend.

  • SteveLA

    A three exception on abortion RINO voter who reliably votes for CA propositions to tighten restrictions on abortion. One who is going to vote to elect a Republican US Senator and a Republican Governor who are focused on helping the citizens of the Golden state instead of fighting over abortion and culture wars and loosing elections to Democrats.

    I’m silly that way.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Examples, particularly without any special in-state issue going on that favors one party?

  • sundesy

    In the current political climate, with a disastrous candidate like Boxer is not beaten then CA is doomed.

  • emaberk

    Intensity gap can vary by state is all I’m saying.You say that the lack of intensity gap in California didn’t make sense to you but why not? Whats your basis for doubting it?

  • IJB

    Tell me *one* thing that would have CA “fired up” about going to the polls this Nov.? Their complete mismanagement of the state’s economy? The lackluster candidates they have at the top of the ballot?

    What, exactly, would have Democrats in CA enthusiastic?!
    Because I can’t think of one single thing…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • emaberk

    So I can’t really say but according to the PPP poll that Neil links to, Californian Democrats are as enthusiastic as they were in 2008, so no gap.

  • jrnlz

    area of CA seem pretty non-existent at this point. There is very little chatter on this race here. No mailings, no phone messages . . . I haven’t even heard any radio spots or seen any t.v. ads, though I don’t watch t.v. much. There are lots of ads for Meg Whitman and now some rather humorous rewriting of history ones from Brown, the fiscal conservative, lol. I have noticed online ads for Carly. Maybe Carly figures this area is in the bag, and for the most part she’d be right.

    In this area it’s mostly a GOTV battle. I don’t know of any one I’d call a fan of Boxer, but the entrenched straight party line voters will support her. I know a couple like that. I think most of the R’s are pretty motivated to vote this cycle. The local Tea Party is pretty active.

  • emaberk

    the results of the poll you linked to other than you saying you didn’t understand them. I assumed it was either because of National trends or previous in state polls showing that gap but you haven’t said either way.

    You can find other states, even in this cycle, that buck the National trend, on PPP blog with some fair reasoning behind them too.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/enthusiasm-gap-by-state.html

    Now I don’t know how they arrived at all their numbers but their take on Alaska made sense. Their enthusiasm is down from 2008 when they were voting for their then Governor for VP and turnout was high.

    So again if you have reasons for doubting the lack of CA gap it would be great to hear them.

  • mboyle1988

    In the primary, Republicans set a turnout record and Dems were only 140k votes more, despite having a 2 million advantage in voter registration. It was 42-39-19 in the primary, so it doesn’t seem to make sense why it would suddenly jump to 49-33-19. Most likely, this poll is oversampling voter enthusiasm among Democrats. Especially given the SUSA and Rasmussen polls showing Fiorina leads, the most likely scenario is that this race is statistically tied with Fiorina still gaining momentum. If the electorate looks like the primary electorate or the 2004 electorate, Fiorina will win. If it looks like 2008, Boxer will win. My bet is that it looks more like 2004/primary. I just can’t imagine Fiorina does that well among independents and loses.

    Washington still scares me a lot. Nevada is heading our way and Wisconsin may become the next Ohio/Florida/Missouri/Pennsylvania. We need all four states to take back the Senate, barring some miracle from O’Donnell, McMahon or Raese.

    Neil–can you write a piece about West Virginia? How in the world is a state that opposes health care 70-30 about to vote for someone who is pro-Obama care? Is there any time/way to turn that around before November?

  • securitymom
  • securitymom

    I just can’t believe that Boxer can pull it off this year. I think the turnout will be about the same as the primary. Am I missing something?

  • nod90

    I’m in a fairly lefty area of California, and I don’t see any enthusiasm among the Democrats. It’s certainly nothing like 2008. Unemployment is high, the housing market isn’t recovering and the State still doesn’t have a budget.

    If you drive I-5 through the Central Valley you will see signs complaining about the water situation. I’ve also seen signs supporting the tea party. You don’t see anything similar on Democrat issues, except maybe gay marriage.

    The polls that put Carly within 1-2 points of Boxer seem to be credible to me. Nothing has happened in the past 10 days or so to shift the race. Boxer has run a predictable campaign so far, while Carly keeps hammering away on jobs, which is people’s number 1 concern.

    I hope we hear a little more about Boxer’s history. About 10 years ago, people who got stock in IPO’s made a killing, but most people couldn’t get in on them. Somehow Boxer got in on one, and she made quite a lot of money. I think the Wall Street Journal did a report on it. I have always wondered how she got in on that.

    There is also Boxer’s habit of sliming her opponents. In her first race, she came up with some very very nasty attacks on the Republican.If the race stays close, Carly will probably get the same treatment.

    The bottom line is that it looks winnable for Carly, but it is going to be a hard fought race.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Devil’s advocate: The state has a significant registration advantage for Dems, and the Dems had no competitive races for Senate or Governor, while we had them for both.

    But on the other hand, Boxer is vulnerable, and nobody can deny that. Also, Brown is losing, and he just might help take Boxer down with him.

  • Adjoran

    The record of long-term incumbents who can’t consistently poll over 50% and who are under 50% approval is rather dismal.

    Meanwhile, Obama will continue to double down because he knows nothing else.

    If I know Jim Geraghty, he isn’t putting the juiciest stuff in his first post on Boxer. He’s saving the best for last. Now, even in a Red Wave year, an NRO series isn’t likely to be the deciding factor, but he will introduce these things to the electorate just as they are beginning to pay close attention (even now, unfortunately, many voters are not tuned in to politics until the election draws nigh).

    Even if Boxer can pull it out, with Carly’s deep pockets, the Democrats will have to pour millions into CA that might be better spent elsewhere. Personally, I don’t think Boxer has the kind of personality which creates a lot of personal loyalty among her voters – they vote her back in because they are Democrats and she is a Democrat. This is not a year which is exciting the Democratic base.

  • davesinsanantonio

    you actually have standards. The squishes will go along with anything to get along with anybody. They have no solid foundation to stand on, so they are “tossed to and fro by every wind of doctrine”.

  • soljerblue

    their brains fell out

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    moderates and conservatives. He’s talking about the on-going battle between SIVVs and everybody. These pinheads are the same group that Huckabee mobilized in Iowa who have one and only one issue and are utterly incapable of anything approaching rational thought.

  • soljerblue

    I may be waaaaay off the mark here, but I have to wonder. Somewhere among Democrats it must be percolating down to the nutroots that their brand is in one heck-of-a-lot of trouble, with only weeks to go before the final round. Is it possible — just asking here — that PPP has maybe spotted the start of a groundswell that’s motivating Dem voters to get off their @$$z and pay attention?

    Like I said, just asking.

  • soljerblue

    “Brown is losing, and he just might help take Boxer down with him.”

    devoutly to be wished…

  • barleycorn

    Why would “good people” put out a poll that has blatantly incorrect assumptions built in?

    I haven’t seen the internals but if rdelbov is correct and “It has a mix of voters of 49D-33R-18I?in 2008 it 42D-30R-28I.” then that is either dishonest or they know something that nobody else knows.

  • Jack_Savage

    I have confidence in the people of California. If what you all are saying is true, then the SIVVs hurt their cause as well as conservatives who align themselves with them. Elections / money will sort that out. My point was that this skirmish should not be projected into the larger battle between moderates and conservatives, which turned into a rant.

    We are going through an epic upheaval, both as a country and as a party. I don’t think we will fully grasp what is happening now until a decade or two later. There will be some groups that take the temperature of the public and try to get in on the action, and may have some short term success, but will get sorted out in time.

  • notthenews

    generally somewhat skewed anyways. It all depends on what demographic you target to acheive your results, that is except this year. With the advent of the Tea Party, no pollster can arrive at any results with any degeree of accuracy. The latest primaries are a clear example. In each case, pollsters had the incumbent in the lead, albeit not comfortable, but in the lead. The reallity of it was, they were lagging significantly. So do not trust polls unless they involve a significant percentage of Tea Party advocates in the demographic.
    Bottom line, polls are basically useless this year.

  • IJB

    I’m *IN* CA, and I can tell you Dems here are *not* fired up right now.

  • chabsentia

    I was born in California. I remember when Pat Brown who was the daddy of Jerry Brown was Governor. The apple doesnt fall very far from the tree. Look at Bell California and Vernon California. Look at the salaries of City officials epsecially in Vernon which has a population of less than a hundred people. Fifty percent of the Revenue of California goes to support the Public Sector and approximately Seven Billion a year goes to pay for Emergency Hospital Services for Illegals. No wonder California has a nineteen Billion dollar deficit when only these two items take up more then fifty percent of its revenue and the services dont stop there. The people of California only have themselves to blame. The California State Constitution demands that two thirds of the State legislature approves its Budget and the people of California keep electing a Democrat majority that are beholden to the Unions.Nothing will change with this mentality and the best thing that could happen to California is that it falls apart and goes into the Ocean before the taxpayers have to bail it out.. I wouldnt be surprised if Boxer is re-elected and Jerry Brown is elected.. Anybody including myself that could leave has left and California has ran out of other peoples’money.

    I am old enough to remember when California was in the top five in the Nation as to Education. California has the 8th highest economy in the world and is now in shambles because of the Apathy of the people and it is spreading.

  • emaberk

    I imagine prop 19 is providing some added enthusiasm for the Democrats however. I think state and local enthusiasm gaps are always difficult to gauge because of local peculiarities be it a state wide ballot question or whatever.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    According to SteveLA, if you back parental notification (not even parental consent, let alone actual restrictions on abortion), you’re a SIVV.

    Oh, and consistently voting against pro-life candidates doesn’t make you an SIVV. Only conservatives fall under that category.

    SteveLA is a consistent liar on CA politics. Don’t try to co-opt him against Huckabee. You can oppose Huckabee and have class and integrity. SteveLA is more like a squishy counterpart to a Huckabot.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Seriously, don’t rush to demonize. Analyze, engage, and find the truth.

    Jensen is fundamentally honest about his polling, which is why he projected that WA, WI, and CA may be the battleground by November.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Is it your assertion that pollsters target people? That’s a pretty serious charge of poll rigging, you know.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908
  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Especially in today’s economy. The key for conservatives is to elect **small government** representatives not “fiscally conservative” or “smaller government” people. It’s time we get away from guys like Mitt Romney whose goal seems to be to make government more effective and cheaper instead of eliminating portions of the fed and getting back to the Constitutional principle that local government governs best.

    At the end of the day, if we elect people who will reduce/eliminate the power and reach of the fed, their “moral issues” will get taken care of. As long as the fed is an overreaching octopus those issues will continue to erode.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Somehow I ended up on a Huck mailing list. I will admit I smile when I chuck the envelopes. :)

  • SteveLA

    I voted in favor of the last and every abortion restriction imitative that has come up for voters in CA, so guess you’re back into making things up instead of actual discussion based on facts.

    Pro-Life candidates or candidates that support outright bans on abortion, who favor ending the three current exemptions in current law? I don’t support those that don’t support the current three exemptions, you have that correct at least. I am a RINO on this issue plain and simple.

  • gregory1972hunt

    I’d say that the hardcore Democrat Party supporters, not to mention the ones who vote Democrat because voting for the Green Party candidate would be throwing their votes away, those folks don’t know too much about what’s going on. They aren’t very well connected to current events outside of what their “trusted” news sources provide to them. For them, the Tea Party is a group of violent extremists who want to overturn the 14th, 15th, and 19th Amendments. They know this because that is what they were told by their “trusted” news sources.

    These people honestly believe that how they live their lives is “moral”, and anyone who thinks differently is “immoral”. That’s how they’re able to mentally shift the majority to the nation to “the fringe”; they can’t conceive an explanation as to how so many people could be so “evil”.

    Which of course leads to why so many people here on The Left would love to see the franchise limited to only those “moral” enough to vote right.

    That hypocrisy right there would be funny, if it didn’t make me so sick.