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Johnson and Walker extend leads in Wisconsin

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 20th, 2010 at 12:30 PM  | 

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Johnson Feingold

Daily Kos and Public Policy Polling have hinted on Twitter that they have a new Wisconsin poll coming, which I am glad of because I’ve long wanted to see a second opinion in that state, but I’d like to start the week by hitting a pair of polls I missed while I was in Austin over the weekend: Rasmussen Reports on the Wisconsin Senate race and then and then on the race for Governor.

For a while Rasmussen had been putting out Senate polls showing Republican Ron Johnson with a tiny, barely visible lead over Democrat Russ Feingold. But the new poll changes that, and Johnson has taken a bigger lead: 51-44 (MoE 4). As before with recent, large changes in Rasmussen, the difference is that leaners are now included. As with Patty Murray in Washington and Richard Burr in North Carolina, it is Ron Johnson that shows up with the wave of weak support. If he wants to win and knock off the incumbent, Johnson will probably have to find a way to strengthen that support.

The same holds for Republican Scott Walker over Democrat Tom Barrett in the Governor’s race. Walker’s lead was three points without leaners, but is now up with leaners to 51-43 (MoE 4). So all that goes for Johnson also goes for Walker.

The easy explanation is that Wisconsin swing voters just aren’t quite ready to pull the trigger and vote for a pair of Republicans right now. Wisconsin hasn’t elected a Republican Governor since Tommy Thompson in 1998, and not a Republican Senator since Robert Kasten in 1986.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • itsjoanne

    Wisconsin may become the next Ohio soon. :)

  • mboyle1988

    Are both getting away from us. Someone talk about the new PPP poll in California please. That’s HORRIBLE news.

  • http://www.twitter.com/RS_yoyo yoyo

    From the piece on assaulting the GOP/Tea Party:

    =============

    To mobilize younger voters who supported him in 2008, Mr. Obama will hold four big campaign-style rallies, the first Sept. 28 at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, with satellite transmission to campuses in other states. The later rallies will be in Ohio, Philadelphia and Las Vegas. He also will send e-mail and record robocalls to spur voters, and conduct a national ?town hall? Webcast in October.

    ============

    So Obama will endorse Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. Wonder if Russ will attend the rally?

    But Obama, with his in-person endorsement spells DOOM for Russ. And also for Harry Reid, Sherrod Brown and Joe Sestak.

    I wonder if they all know that yet?

    LOLOL

    NYT article here: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/20/us/politics/20dems.html?_r=1

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    And don’t panic. Seriously. Bad weeks happen in polling. :)

  • http://www.libertytreehugger.com reverelth

    and not really a Sarah Palin disciple. The Tea Party in Wisconsin has even been coy about throwing in with him. Feingold has less Obama/Reid mud on his shoes than most Democrat incumbents and has always been an “iron man” for re-election, and a “maverick” (a label usually only given by the MSM only to Republicans who get in the face of their party).

    So Wisconsin is a neat little science experiment, a control group, if you will. Rarified air.

    Two go in, one comes out.

  • chipbennett

    The PPP poll showing Boxer up 50-52 over Fiorina showed that their sample of “likely” voters voted 57% – 36% in favor of Obama vs. McCain in 2008. The actual results for CA were 61% – 37% in favor of Obama.

    Thus, PPP’s “likely” voter model apparently isn’t taking into consideration – at all – either the shift in voter affiliation, or the enthusiasm gap.

    Even in CA, this is a wave year; and that poll just isn’t capturing it.

    Or, the result is just an outlier.

    Let’s see what Rasmussen shows with leaners – perhaps Boxer in the lead, but within the MOE?

  • Coop

    “California and Washington are both getting away from us. ”

    Man the lifeboats!! All is lost!!! Woe is us!!!! [sob, gasp]

    Despite your jaded opinion, both Dem incumbents in CA and WA are in serious risk of losing. But if you think they’re just gonna roll over and let Fiorina and Rossi cruise to victory, you’re absolutely dreaming.

  • oneconservative

    It is well on its way to becoming Michigan and Ohio….

  • itsjoanne

    n/t

  • IJB

    …Which I will make again when Neil does a separate diary on the PPP CA poll – But, with only one exception, PPP’s polls of CA have consistently shown:

    1) About an 8% Boxer lead. And,

    2) Boxer around 50%.

    IOW, PPP’s new poll shows *exactly* the same result they were getting earlier in the year.

    So, even leaving aside the important issues the Chip is bringing up (and which they are hammering Tom about over on the PPP blog comments!), the worst thing PPP’s most recent poll perhaps shows *no movement* in CA since earlier in the year.

    IOW, PPP shows NO real movement *to* Boxer.

    Combine that with other polling out of CA, and PPP’s listed problems, and I’m not too worried (yet) about this PPP outlier…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • epaulzy

    This is coming from my perspective talking with a variety of people in northern Wisconsin including those who’ve voted democrat for years…….They want Feingold out and they want Walker in. Older people are TICKED due to no COLA increase for their social security this year or next and medicare premiums rising, working people are TICKED about how much they’re paying in taxes, unemployed people are TICKED about the lack of jobs, and young people are TICKED about an uncertain future. One poll worker, who worked the primary, told me this was the largest turnout he’d ever seen for a primary and in his area a large majority of people were voting republican.