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Murkowski on the ballot would not threaten Miller

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 21st, 2010 at 11:00 AM  | 

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Miller McAdams

Rasmussen Reports polled the hypothetical three way matchup for Alaska Senate between Republican Joe Miller, Democrat Scott McAdams, and newly minted independent Lisa Murkowski.

This is clearly the best case scenario for Murkowski as she actually won’t be on the ballot, but even in this case, the result is not changed from the previous poll.

Yes, Murkowski turns out not to hurt Miller a bit. In the last poll Miller led McAdams by 6. In this poll, he leads McAdams 42-25 (MoE 4.5) with Murkowski drawing 27.

The breakdown of the Murkowski entry: Miller loses 8 points, McAdams loses 19 points. Hmm, 19 + 8 = 27, the Murkowski figure, suggesting strongly that Murkowski is more attractive to Alaska Democrats than she is to Alaska Republicans, which obviously is not bad news for Joe Miller at all.

However this falls far short of the Connecticut situation, when Joe Lieberman was able to capture true dissatisfaction Republicans had with their own nominee’s position on the War on Terror, allowing him to overtake the Democrat and win as the Connecticut for Lieberman candidate. And again, Lieberman was on the ballot. Murkowski is a write-in.

So the only apparent consequence of the Murkowski write-in run is to make Miller as secure in this seat as she herself was.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • reaganauh2o

    We The People vs. The Ruling Class.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    America doesn’t have classes, and I don’t like it when our side adopts Marxist rhetoric to claim otherwise.

  • Jack_Savage

    Except those that would be the Ruling Class don’t see it that way. And sometimes the thing that clearly explains Marxist tendencies is Marxist rhetoric.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001624140602 BigGator5

    I was telling my friend the other day that Murkowski would hurt McAdams more than Miller (look, three Ms in one race!). Looks like I was right.

  • partyof1

    Murkowsky

  • chbroussard

    if she loses this election and decides to run for office in the future. Democrats may not be willing to forgive her if she drains votes from McAdams in this election.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s Lizamur Kausky.

  • zonablue

    As more and more conservative candidates gain traction, the RINOs flee to their real roots, the Democ-rat Party. Now that the Tea Party is beginning to flex its muscles with the GOP, it is time to continue deporting these wolves in sheep’s clothing back to their “moderate” friends.

    The GOP is supposedly the conservative side of U.S. politics. Over the last 50 years it has been infiltrated by the so-called “fiscally-conservative, socially liberal” wing of the Democ-rat Party. Hence, the Murkowski-Specter-Collins-Snowe-McCain-Graham bloc of “moderate” Republicans.

    It is time to drive these so-called Republicans out of the party. Those who favor abortion, open borders, gay marriage, entitlements, and big government need to leave.

    The tsunami is coming on November 2. It spells Armageddon for the Marxist Democrats.

  • deano64

    have convinced themselves they are the Ruling Class or at least entitled to the privlieges of power that a Ruling Class might come to expect? I see your point though. As long as we still have the power to kick their butts out of office they won’t ever actually be the Ruling Class, but they may act that way until we do kick their butts out.

    Anyway this is such good news!

  • proudgop

    Miller should be fine.

    New PPP Poll Raese 46% Manchin 43%

    we can win WV

  • deano64
  • zonablue

    Should anyone really believe that the left doesn’t divide “WE THE PEOPLE” in classes, they really need to reeducate themselves. This “class” think has been around since the 1920′s and the Marxist elements in this country have been playing it ever since. The Marxists failed to take the country in the 30′s, 50′s, & have never disbanded. They just changed their tactics and took over the Environmental Movement which now is totally controlled by Marxists. Their agenda is total taxation of energy to the extent that it will drive the American people to their knees. Get real!

  • joecollins

    . . . comes around.

  • alaskaescapeartist

    It’s been 15 years since I lived in Alaska, but born and raised there, and in a position that allowed me to have consistent contact with the Alaska delegation of the time (Stevens, Young, and Murkowski for hte most part), I’m struck by the shift in political thinking by many, and probably best exemplified by the Tea Party.

    I happened to be back in Alaska at the time of this election. My brother, a very conservative, NRA life member, brilliant and astute thinker…. was mortified that Murkowski was defeated. As a friend of Stevens, he felt that Alaska was now weakened considerably. And to his defense, for those whom accuse Alaska of being a pork barrel, you’re only part right. There are many parts of the state that are still struggling to gain some sort of infrastructure that puts them in the relatively modern world.

    Another friend of mine up there, a big player in Ak Republican politics and VIP fundraiser…. actually engaged me in a conversation about who I thought was the better pick.

    I instinctively replied that Murkowski might be “better” for Alaska, but Miller is what the country needs.

    He quietly responded…. “that’s a very good way of looking at it…. Miller it is”.

    The upshot of all this in my mind is that the electorate, at this moment at least, is putting the welfare of the country as a whole in front of their own region or state.

    I know many here and other pundits have made similar points, but to see it up close and personal, in a small place that used to be my home, a place that aggressively defended their piece of the pie for decades….. was quite an impact, and I dare say, made me proud.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But it’s not true and we shouldn’t act like it is.

  • Tbone

    He should be strangled with it for wearing it. That baby sure has a lot of real estate to cover. It must be from Christos “Bridge Drape” collection.

  • reaganauh2o

    to an article in the American Spectator back in July entitled “America’s Ruling Class — And The Perils of Revolution” by Angelo M. Codevilla. Rush spent almost his whole show one day reading excerpts.

    We saw last Tuesday with the election of Christine O’Donnell that having an R next to your name doesn’t cut it. Castle is (was) in the ruling class, and Murkowski who got a US Senate seat from daddy. Both have shown that they felt entitled to the position and an election was just a formality. Rove’s rant the day after exposed a great deal.

    The rhetoric is not meant to be Marxist, far from it. When the beltway crowd lives the life of an exclusive country club (both parties), it becomes the soft tyranny we are seeing.

  • joayn

    Don’t jump on me – it’s a chick thing. That aside, the physical comparison is striking: real man versus soft, baby boy-man thing or whatever.

  • calgacus

    It is not “class” based on money per se. And there is no “the people”. Some ordinary people are just left wing nuts like Alvin Greene. I guess we could just say it is the Managerial Class (media, academia, government buracracy, courts, large corporations, unions, and major churches) v. middle and upper middle class white conservatives. The book “The Managerial Revolution” by James Burnham explains it exactly right.

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Manchin +2. Another seat w/in range?

  • joayn

    Actually, Neil, I’m surprised you didn’t include her new ad that ran yesterday for, what, five minutes before being pulled (Visit LisaMurkwski.Com!).

    If only they left it up longer …

    http://www.conservatives4palin.com/2010/09/apparently-lisa-murkowski-cant-spell.html

  • JadedByPolitics

    with it and yet would NOT allow my own husband to have the same beard :)

  • http://1776challenge.com TeaPartyPreacher

    As angry as I was when Murkowski announced her write-in campaign, I figured it wouldn’t cost Miller the election. First, Specter, then Crist… When will the Establishment learn?

  • conservativemusician

    And it was 5 points last week, so Raese’s support seems to be slipping. These polls are all over the place right now, so it is hard to gauge what is really happening.

  • http://1776challenge.com TeaPartyPreacher

    “…putting the welfare of the country as a whole in front of their own region or state.”

    I think you’re right.

  • IJB

    The situations in both FL and AK are very similar.

    In both cases, the floor – not the ceiling, but the *floor* – of support for Rubio and Miller is about 40%. That’s the *least* they’ll get.

    As we get closer to Election Day, and the support for the ‘Also Rans’ collapses, it’s likely that both Rubio’s and Miller’s number will rise. (It would not surprise me if either ended up with over 50% on Election Day.)

    Intriguingly, a similar collapse in ‘Also Ran’ support should help our GOV candidates in MN and MA, just like they did in NJ in 2009…

  • The_Gadfly

    They have maintained too much power for too long by being the marginal power brokers who decided what could get passed and what couldn’t. Being essentially without principles even though they they abide by some, they typically got shafted when people who knew they were without principles sat down at the table. Which wouldn’t have been so bad if had been only the moderates that were shafted. Problem is they shafted the rest of the country in the process.

  • proudgop

    I expect if Crist is down a week before election day he’ll drop out and endorse Meeks won’t matter much ( rubio would win by more)

    he just comes off the type to do such a thing

    US Senate Seats:
    ND, IN, AR ( pretty much locks for pickups; never take anything for granted knock on wood)
    WI is looking solid not too as are PA
    NV and CO very tight leaning our way (WV might be here too now)
    CT, CA still tough wins but doable
    WA needs to start swinging our way again; Rossi needs better ads and more spine
    DE not writing off DE O’Donnell has the money she needs to start spending it pronto cause I think she can keep pace for rest of 2 months

  • The_Gadfly

    straight to God’s ears. I hope you and our Alaska refugee are correct. I am concerned that Art’s postings about the area are correct enough to sink the whole thing. Anybody voting for Murkowski instead of Miller is still a vote lost to Miller even if they spell Murkowski’s name incorrectly on the ballot. Which is part of why I think her campaign is even more sour grapes than Crist. Crist at least will be on the ballot, so his odds are at least a magnitude larger than Mz. Murkowski; still slim but that puts Mz M at near zero.

  • http://dreamsfrommyforefathers.com RoguePolitics

    One of them was for the left the embrace the world as it was in order to change it from within.

    Saying America doesn’t have classes isn’t correct. We do have at least two distinct classes. The Ruling Class, or the incumbent class as Dick Morris calls it, and the rest of us. The distinction may be wrong but it is real.

    We have Gangsta Government. We may want to have rule of law, we may be supposed to have rule of law but what we have is Gangsta Government.

    Government, which has the primary purpose of securing or protecting our rights and property is now the biggest threat to both.

    The difference between de facto and de jure.

    If we want our country back we had better understand; its already gone. We have to TAKE,/B> it back.

    Just keeping it real.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    According to what I’m told, just writing Lisa will be enough to get a vote to count for her, even if Merkausky is spelled wrong.

  • joayn

    I must admit my judgement is tainted by the cultural icon of manliness, Miami Vice. And, that manufactured manly look speaks to me psychologically. But, hey, it’s my projection and feel free to disagree, no offense taken.

    Would any of this stop me from voting for the guy if I lived in Alaska? Hell no!

    But clean-cut, suit or uniform. Mmm-mmm-mmm.

  • IJB

    (If we could just get OR and MD in there too, that’d be nice…)

  • IJB

    My guess is that the AK GOP will sue over the issue if the state’s AG doesn’t come up with a stricter standard than “anything goes”.

    It would certainly be an issue worth litigating over, that’s for sure.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think they’re saying it’s a voter intent standard, but yeah that would be an issue, to be sure.

  • JadedByPolitics

    …

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I suggest you do the math. 5 to 7 isn’t especially meaningful with a 4.5 MoE.

  • crosley

    This poll is actually grossly inflating her support. A more accurate poll would have named the Democrat and Republican, then given the responder the choice of other, and to specifically name that person. You would then see her support in single digits. This poll essentially puts her name on the ballot.

    She is only humiliating herself, and the Republican leadership needs to make an example of her and strip her of all committees. One of these days an opportunistic sore loser is going to cost us an important seat.

  • joayn

    I guess my point is, will Verusca Salt rise to the occasion and find her big-girl pants to win it? Or will she unwittingly reveal just how much she’s been proped up her GOP BFFs?

  • gekster
  • trapperjohn

    I don’t have anything to go on but my gut instincts on the ground here as a Miller supporter but I think Murkowsky will get a bit more support than that. I think it will likely be about 40-35-25 in the end…that’s my prediction.

  • Sirithil

    …all we need is for someone else named Lisa to run a write-in campaign. If we could find a Lisa with as similar a last name as possible to Murkowski, all the better.

    Someone else was saying — can’t recall who — that you need to spell the full name perfectly for it to count, but even if that’s the case, any Democrats or Achance-types among the vote-counters would see that rule bent significantly, I’m sure — to avoid ‘disenfranchising’ voters.

  • joayn

    They also have to fill in the circle next to the name, hence the video.

  • spainishirish

    Regardless of their relative merits vs. their primary opponents, the post-defeat actions of Castle and Murkowsk pretty well have confirmed many of their critics’ points. Even if Murkowski were to try to avoid total humiliaton and call off this stupidity, some of her dead-enders still would write-in her name and, if this poll is to be believed, that would be a good thing for us.

  • mboyle1988

    They actually screen for LV based on voter enthusiasm. There’s no way Manchin wins WV when he supports Obamacare. The Rasmussen poll looked wrong to me anyway. WV is definitely in play.

  • chihank

    Murky’s plan is to villify Miller as being beholdened to evil people like the Tea Parties, Palin, and DeMint.

    Murky derserves to be smacked down. I saw her appearance on CNN. She was just a whiny, ugly witch.

    Mitch McConnell should strip her of all her committe assignments and make her caucus with the Dems for the remainer of her sorry term.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    In the past Jensen has said PPP calls an LV someone who voted in one of the last three elections.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    , just like Crist

  • chihank

    The GOP Leadership in DC is apparently listening to the grassroots.

    Mitch McConnell will strip Lisa Murky of being the ranking GOPer on the Energy Committee.

    If the AK Sore Loser just endorsed Joe Miller, then she could have run for either Governor or Senator in 2014. I’m glad her political future in the GOP is gone.

  • audax

    Lisa is spelled J-O-E
    Murkowsky is spelled M-I-L-L-E-R

    Got that class?

    Great!

  • conservativemusician

    before this becomes a meaningful lead that we should be concerned about? To me, it would seem that the voters of WV should know that no matter how much they like their Democratic governor, he will vote with Obama’s agenda every time – the same agenda they are overwhelmingly opposed to.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Check the new WV polls on the front page of RedState.com and UnlikelyVoter.com

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.marklaiminger.org Lammo

    that’s funny right there.

  • renny

    concert held in the Fox Theatre in St. Louis.
    During breaks, he says this theatre, where he couldn’t buy a ticket to see a movie as a young man, represented to him all that was the best and refined in St. Louis, and now here, a black man, he was headlining a concert for a very mixed (but mostly white) audience.
    He added that down the street on the courthouse steps his ancestors were sold as slaves. “Times have changed,” Chuck Berry says.
    In the first house I lived in, there was a back stairway that came down into the kitchen and across from the kitchen was a little room we used for miscellany, but it had been built for a maid. The house was probably constructed in the late 1920s.
    Unions (for as much as the public ones are a drag on budgets now) helped moved factory workers into the middle class in the 50s and the huge economies after WW II and near permanent boom since Reagan raised our standard of living and expectations so greatly that we forget most “ordinary” homes once were once designed to house a maid and other help.
    And those are parts of the reasons class conflict and warfare, the rhetoric of marxism, and pitting of groups against is other is so grating in the US. We are not Great Britain or Germany that once had royalty and principalities and true social divisions of inheritance and wealth.
    Today, if you come up with a new computer widget, you can be a millionaire tomorrow. A website can do it. And Americans prefer that system to little o’s preference for taking away from anyone who has acquired something and giving it to some voting bloc he prefers.

  • emaberk

    and thats a bit of a concern. Murkowski is taking this personally and is out for revenge. She will no doubt attack Miller nonstop and if they get into a real dirty mud slinging match runs the risk of dragging Miller down. This all might be fine if she stays in the race but if she drops out in the last minute having inflicted as much damage as she could then McAdams stands a chance.

  • tea4me

    Well I still am. But this was likely the best thing she could ever do. She’s stealing twice as many votes from McAdams as from Miller. Immediately…the numbers are looking just like Florida. She’s actually secured his win now!

  • partyof1

    Lizamur Kausky
    Charlie Crist
    Arlen Specter
    Dede Scozzafava
    Jim Jeffords

    There’s a lesson there about believing in something other than being elected.