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Raese takes a lead in West Virginia

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 21st, 2010 at 04:30 PM  | 

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Raese Manchin

I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race.

And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.

Rasmussen had yet to show a lead for Republican John Raese over the incredibly popular Governor and Democrat Joe Manchin, but that’s precisely what PPP has just done. Raese leads the poll 46-43 (MoE 2.6).

Key figure: Manchin is still rather popular, with job approval way up at 59/32/9, and the sample correctly shows the state strong in registration for the Democrats at 51 D/37 R, but Barack Obama is terribly unpopular at 30/64/6, and the PPACA likewise is disliked at 27/63/11.

West Virginia has Democrats, but they’re not the same kind of Democrat we generally see in DC today. This may be the beginning of West Virginia’s in-state realignment to match the rest of the country.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • calgacus

    Washington, California, Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania. If we win all ten, then we take over the Senate.

  • jeffreywturner

    Here now is a chance to really wrap the national Democratic label around the politicians who claim to be different but really just want to go to DC and toe the line with Chuckie Schumer and his ilk.

    Fortunately for us, Mr. Manchin has already admitted, on tape, that he supports Obamacare, exactly as it was passed, so it is too late for him to pretend otherwise. Now let’s make him own it. Democrats get elected, especially from states like WV, by pretending to be more conservative than they are. Let’s not let this one get away with it. Let’s keep the heat on this guy until every West Virginian knows that a vote for him is a vote for the left’s entire agenda, even if he claims to be against token parts of it.

  • mboyle1988

    that show Manchin on tape supporting Obama care. On tape. Let the voters see it themselves. On tape. Why are GOP ads this cycle not what they need to be?

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    John Raese’s latest ad:

    Link to video for those who can’t see embedded video.

    Just wait ’til the cap & trade ads come out!

  • crosley

    This is a much more winnable Senate seat for Republicans than some of the other “longshot” bids, but it gets zero attention.

    I’m afraid this is going to fly under the radar and we end up losing by the smallest of margins because everyone ignored it and were focusing on other races.

    The NRSC needs to step up to the plate, this is where they can make a big difference. I would much rather see resources taken from say California and Delaware to spend on this race. West Virginia is a Red State that’s in a cheap media market, it’s a good investment to make. If Manchin wins, he may be able to pull off the Byrd act and stay there till he’s on his death bed.

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    From yesterday’s PPP preview of this poll:

    By a 54-37 margin, West Virginians want a Republican-controlled Congress.

    Here’s the real kicker: among voters who (1) love Joe Manchin and (2) want a Republican-controlled Congress, Raese leads 57-29!

    For these reasons, Raese has scored a grand slam on his message that he won’t be a rubber stamp for Barack Obama.

  • laxconservative

    WV Dems are much more likely to be aligned with the tea party movement than the progressive caucus dominating their party. I think the voters’ dislike of Obama overpowers their appreciation for Manchin in this cycle. We absolutely need this to offset Delaware. I think we get it +1

    In terms of regaining control, five of these races (AR, WI, ND, IN, PA) are in the bag, in my opinion. +5

    Illinois will be messy, but Kirk has for the most part maintained a small lead all these months and I think the throw the bums out mentality will help him prevail in this state maybe more than it would in any other. +1

    Three to go…

    Nevada’s economic picture is so bleak, and Obama’s comments about Vegas so stupid, that I think Angle pulls this out – barely. +1

    California Dems hurt themselves when they put Brown in as the nominee. He’s the ultimate retread and neither he nor Boxer are going to generate a lot of excitement in their base. Unlike Sen. Feinstein, I don’t know of any Californian’s who find Boxer even somewhat endearing as a person outside of politics. There will be enough of a change in the electorate to give Fiorina a 2 or 3 point win here. +1

    One left…and this is where it gets hard

    I think Colorado is going to be tougher than people think. Hickenlooper is a very popular Dem mayor and will drive Denver metro turnout and the democrat base out in a 10-15 point win in the governor’s race. Buck is a conservative in a purple state and needs turnout in the Denver metro to stay relatively low – it would have been had it not been for Hickenlooper’s entry in the gov’s race. Bennet squeaks one out probably by one or two points.

    Oregon – Wyden is cruising right now and not showing very much polling below 50 to identify him as vulnerable.

    Washington – I know Rossi has been close twice, but living in California and having spent a lot of time in Washington state, you get the feeling that there are fewer of the “Club for Growth”/fiscal conservative-social libertarian types that go for the GOP in a bad economic cycle than there are in the Golden State.

    Connecticut – McMahon has ran a decent campaign and done a nice job closing the gap, but Blumenthal has polled pretty consistently over 50, even with a pretty horrendous gaffe on the war record issue.

    Delaware – polls are going from bad to worse. We need Coons to have a melt down to have a chance, and even then, this is a deep blue state with zero history of electing hard line social conservative candidates.

    New York – Needed Pataki or Giuliani here to have a legit shot.

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    right here in West Virginia.

    Joe Manchin is currently the most popular Democrat politician in this state. Two months ago, after the Legislature passed & Governor Manchin signed the law providing for this special election, I doubted John Raese could win this race even though I knew there was a treasure trove of video clips & other material by which Manchin could be joined at the hip with President Obama. However, John Raese has so far run a perfect campaign and his message that Joe Manchin would be a rubber stamp for Obama and Raese would not has worked better than anyone who supports Raese ever dreamed.

    The fundamental problem Manchin has is that although he was once a very conservative Democrat when he was a state senator from 1986 to 2996, he veered left after he lost a bitter primary election for Governor in 1996 to far-left state senator Charlotte Pritt. I am certain that the memory of this defeat was seared in Manchin?s memory and there has not been a day that has passed that he is not personally haunted by it. Since Manchin was elected Secretary of State in 2000 and Governor in 2004, he has attempted to be all things at all times to all people.

    Joe Manchin has held together for the last decade an unsustainable “grand coalition” that has always been destined to collapse and will collapse with the help of Barack Obama and this special election that Manchin himself orchestrated after Senator Byrd died. Right now, Manchin enjoys the support of the Chamber of Commerce (which believes Manchin opposes card check) and the AFL-CIO (which believes Manchin supports card check); the West Virginia Coal Association (which opposes the entire Obama environmental agenda) and the greenies; West Virginians for Life (which obviously believes Manchin is pro-life) and the pro-abort crowd (which likes the fact Manchin has done nothing as Governor to break the legislative logjam on major pro-life legislation).

    John Raese will be the next U.S. senator from West Virginia. The only question will be whether partisan Democrat Secretary of State Natalie Tennant tries to delay Raese’s swearing-in (which should rightfully happen at the first session of the Senate after the election–possibly as early as November 3) and attempts to protract the certification process to permit interim Senator Carte Goodwin (who has been a rubber stamp for Obama) to cast critical votes for the Democrats during the lame duck session.

  • dave2131

    for about 3.5 to 4 hours listening to AM radio…The people who were calling in really do like Manchin, but want him to finish his term as Governor. He has evidently put out some programs that they want him to see out. I didn’t hear from anybody that had negative things to say.

    Wasn’t even a “right-wing” radio program – but nobody wanted him to run. At least not yet.

    I did hear some nice radio ads against him, so this race will be interesting.

  • ericc

    Hit ‘em again, hit ‘em again, HARDER, HARDER!

  • redtillimdead

    He needs to put serious coin behind that! Play that ad enough, and Raese will take off.

  • redtillimdead

    From the appearance of Raese’s FB page, the man is EVERYWHERE in the state. Is he really, and if so, is he getting positive media attention from his meeting with voters?

  • chipbennett

    So, in CA, PPP apparently has the likely voter model just completely wrong, and out-of-phase with national trends. But (based solely upon your analysis and not actually looking at the internals), their model in WV seems much more accurate.

    Is there any particular reason to trust the PPP WV poll – which appears to be an outlier compared to all the other WV polling – when PPP also has what appears to be an outlier wrt CA?

    Just curious on your thoughts on this one. Is it a case of having a better grasp of the demographics, and voting tendencies, of West Virginians?

  • emaberk
  • Adjoran

    Please keep us updated.

  • tcgeol

    Thanks for the information, Jim, because we aren’t hearing much of anything about the race in Huntington. The paper is saying very little about it, and it doesn’t even really seem to be a topic of conversation.

    Manchin is extremely popular and he is still a fairly conservative Democrat, at least compared to Wise and Caperton anyway. It would be amazing to see West Virginia pick its first Republican senator after so long.

  • proudgop

    I really do feel better about WV then I do about CA, WA, and Ct for example at moment

    We can win 2 house seats too in the state and keep in mind a month ago how Feds went searching in the state house imagine if that breaks at last moment.

  • IJB

    …And keep them engaged enough to vote.

    But, I think the truth is that Whitman is probably up 3% on Brown, and I suspect the Senate race is tied.

    But, yeah – PPP’s projection of 49% of CA’s electorate in Nov. being Democrat is absolutely nuts. There must be some other reason they put that poll out…

  • IJB

    But as someone said upthread, the demographics of WA are probably *more* leftie than CA’s in many respects (e.g. WA hasn’t has a Republican GOV in *ages*, while CA has had two in about the last two decades) – I think it’ll be easier to beat Boxer than it will be to beat Murray.

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    WSAZ recently covered the ongoing federal corruption probe that seems to be closing in on state Democratic chairman and former Manchin chief of staff Larry Puccio:

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    There’s been ONE other pollster hitting WV. When two polls disagree, barring other information you can’t just point to one and call it the outlier.

    And the difference is probably in the likely voter screening.

  • chipbennett

    …and Rasmussen has shown Raese trailing outside the MOE for the entire race.

    So, it does give me pause.

  • IJB

    My guess is that the real state of the WV race right now is that Manchin is probably ahead by a few points, but under 50%.

    IOW, this race is totally winnable. And the virtue of the PPP poll is that it makes it clear to *everyone* that Manchin’s *not* a ‘shoo-in’ and that the GOP has a very good shot to take WV.

    Now, thanks to PPP, everybody understands that.