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Three new polls on the New York Special

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 23rd, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Joe DioGuardi

A flood of new polls about New York Senate races came out today. Chuck Schumer still looks safe, but the polling is variable on the special election between Republican Joe DioGuardi and Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.

We’re now beyond the idea that only one poll, one time showed the special election to be competitive. Polls showing a Gillibrand blowout are now the minority.

Yes, the new Siena poll looks like a poll from before the primary, what with its 57-31 (MoE 3.5) advantage for Gillibrand, but that’s the only poll showing a gap like that now.

Quinnipiac’s result is closer to Rasmussen, and in fact is a bit better for DioGuardi, as it’s only a six point gap: 48-42 (MoE 3.6). Instead of yesterday’s 87/13 split in favor of Gillibrand we got from Rasmussen, this poll I show as a flat 80/20.

But that’s not the good poll of this round for the Republicans. That poll comes from SurveyUSA. Swallow what you’re drinking, because this result is absolutely, totally, and in all other ways inconceivable: Gillibrand 45, DioGuardi 44, MoE 4.2.

That’s right, SurveyUSA shows a one point gap. A 55/45 race. It will be interesting to see how all of this averages out in my next Senate projection on Monday.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • throwback59

    for the “Hottest” candidate.

  • A_Texan

    1. The poll is of registered voters.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ny/new_york_senate_dioguardi_vs_gillibrand-1469.html

    2. The poll shows the smallest difference between Schumer and Gillibrand’s lead. Simply put, Schumer will win in a rout, Gillibrand will not.

    The poll shows Schumer up 33, Gillibrand up 26 (7 point difference)

    Quinnipiac shows him up 16, Gillibrand up 6 (10 point difference)

    Survey USA shows him up 21, Gillibrand up 1 (20 point difference)

  • vinny

    Siena used “Registered Voters” — while Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and SurveyUSA used “Likely Voters”

  • rdelbov

    note on SUSA

    Partisan breakdown was 44D-35R-21I

    CNN exits had it in 2008 at 50D-26R and 2006 was 47D-25R

    So the SUSA poll has a nice towards the GOP in partisan breakdown. Mind you 2006 & 2008 were horrid years for the republicans in New York.

    So the SUSA poll is seeing a GOP surge in NY.

  • Adjoran

    You’ll always have those hot, passionate moments in the Senate cloakroom to cherish . . .

  • IJB

    …Is that it makes me doubt *all* of their NY polling (e.g. they also show far bigger leads for Cuomo and Schumer than anyone else), including their House polling.

    After this, I don’t think Siena’s NY-20 poll, showing Murphy up 20, and over 50%, can be taken seriously. Meanwhile, their NY-29 result, showing the GOP candidate under 50% is probably equally as wrong – I’m sure we’re up over 50% in NY-29…

  • deano64

    It’s awesome and a bit surreal at the same time.

  • rdelbov

    This might not be the place to do this but how many New York posts can we expect before November?

    Joe D. has a huge advantage in his race with Gillibrand that other republicans do not have. He is not only on the republican ticket in NY but he is also on the Conservative line. Whew. Thank goodness.

    There is another rock star teaparty loving conservative Superstar running statewide in New York. His name is Carl Paladino. He is running for Governor and he scaring the pants off of the democrats. He threatens to out Christie Christie in the empire state. The problem is that conservative ex-congressman Rick Lazio is squatting on the conservative line. There is not enough votes in New York to be splitting the conservative ones. We need some help.

    Sadly the same situation is developing in NY23. Conservative businessman Matt Doheny has won the GOP nomination. He has teaparty support but Doug Hoffman was handpicked by the conservative party to be the nominee there. So now we have two conservatives running but of course one nominee (Doheny) won a primary while the other Hoffman(was selected by party bosses),

    So while there is a lot of good news for conservatives in New York we still got the circular firing squad in place in that state.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If the momentum continues for DioGuardi and Paladino then expect lots.

  • foray

    Joe. D seriously has a shot at this seat.

    Like the last Republican to win statewide in NY Joe has a base in Westchester County.

    Although dominated by Liberal Democrats last year voters in Westchester threw out the incumbent county executive Andy Spano in favor of a Conservative Republican and then a couple of months ago they elected a Republican to an Assembly seat that went for Obama 66%.

    If Joe has the money- he can win- I can’t wait for the debates

  • zr2x4

    will win this. He won his congressional seat in one of the most democratic seats of the country. Yet he is socially and fiscally conservative.

    New Yorkers are in revolt of being controlled by democrats. Expect NY to turn red in November.

  • zr2x4

    the next DCCC chairman, Steve Israel; to go down in flames. He’s being challenged by John Gomez. Who’s backed by Sean Hannity, Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachman, Mitt Romney, Rudy Guiliani, and Sarah Palin.

  • zr2x4

    -

  • A_Texan

    Here’s from my diary–

    I was delighted to see this morning that former Congressman Joe Dioguardi is now within a few points of Kirsten Gillibrand in the special-election Senate race in New York.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ny/new_york_senate_dioguardi_vs_gillibrand-1469.html

    (Please note that the lousy poll from Siena is of registered, not likely voters).

    He is a solid fiscal conservative. He is a CPA and has for decades been sounding the alarm that Congress has been fiscally reckless.

    He is a solid social conservative?he was pro-life in the mid-80s (when that?s what GOP candidates did), and he remained pro-life in the late 80s and early 90s even when it wasn?t cool among New York Republicans. (Remember when Susan Molinari was supposedly the model of the future of the GOP?even nationally?)

    His consistency on this issue should be of interest to fiscal conservatives as well. He has proven that he will stick with his principles in bad times as well as good. Don?t expect him to get squishy.

    I know because I am a refugee from New York?and did some campaign work for him during one of his unsuccessful races. He has always been a solid guy. And he would be the most conservative statewide office holder in New York since?well, I don?t know?sometime before Nelson Rockerfeller was born.

    He?s at a major funding disadvantage. So please support him with your voice, your money, and your vote.

    http://www.dioguardiforussenate.com/home.php

  • barleycorn

    Don’t say stuff like that without a warning!

    I got heart palpitations just reading “Expect NY to turn red in November”.

  • tomato

    If Schumer is so far ahead, why wouldn’t he carry Gillibrand on his coattails? Are there that many voters who back Schumer because he’s so far left but not back Gillibrand because she’s not enough to the right?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The wonderful, glorious NRSC didn’t bother to recruit, so our best candidates ran against Gillibrand, not Schumer.

  • rdelbov

    NRSC is a thankless job–they recruit a sure winner in Castle and all the conservatives throw rocks at him. They can’t get a Pataki or Rudy(very similar record to Castle) to run and people say they can’t recruit.

    What’s a guy to do.

  • conservativemusician

    The PEOPLE choose the candidates and THEN the NRSC should get behind whoever wins the primary. I think our money is best spent giving directly to candidates we like, not a middle man.

  • nepanyrush

    Here in PA-10, there was a great, flawless, principled conservative who would have won the general election. But the endorsement of the national party of a very flawed candidate may mean we are stuck with the Democrat for another 2 years in a very winnable, conservative district. The Republican chosen by the party bosses? Already ads are running about his ties to a convicted felon, who is part of a crime family. And then he made gaffe after gaffe. This district was jerrymandered for a sure Republican victory, but a scandal gave the seat to a Democrat and now he will likely repeat due to the idiocy of the national GOP.

  • Common_Cents

    I recently wrote a diary about it. In an interview he said 57 out of 100 senators are freakin attorneys.

    Apologies to those good attorneys here at RS but that is outrageous. He said he’d be the ONLY CPA in the senate.

    He also said I believe over 250 in the house out of 435 are attorneys. He didn’t mention how many CPAs are in the house, we certainly know by results, not nearly enough.

    No wonder things are going wrong no matter what party. I am curious what the breakdown is by party.

    This tells me we need some major work done on how business gets done in DC and the party/recruitment systems. What is it about DC that attracts attorneys and how do we change it to attract CPA’s, business owners, etc….

    If you think this is discriminatory, hell yeah it is! Sue me.