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Terribly inconsistent polling in Florida

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 24th, 2010 at 07:00 PM  | 

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Rick Scott left, Alex Sink right

I am at a loss as to how to analyze the polling of the race for Governor in Florida. Of the last four polls at Real Clear Politics, Republican Rick Scott leads according to Rasmussen Reports and Ipsos for Reuters, while Democrat Alex Sink leads acccording to Mason Dixon and CNN/Time.

Two polls concluded on the same day (Rasmussen and Mason Dixon) are not supposed to have a thirteen point swing between them, predicting different winners, but they do. So what’s going on?

A friend pointed out to me that this polling is reminiscent of the primary, as Rick Scott’s race against Bill McCollum also showed this kind of volatility. Maybe there’s something to that, but I’m not sure. Primary polling this year was erratic all around, and Florida wasn’t special on that point.

Striking in the CNN/Time result of Sink 49-Scott 42 (MoE 3.5): Sink wins Democrats 85/10 while Scott leads Republicans only 75/15. We’re still seeing the primary effects in that poll. The Mason Dixon poll gives Sink 80% of Democrats and Scott still only 75% of Republicans in arriving at a Sink 47-Scott 40 top line (MoE 4).

Rasmussen has that partisan information behind a paywall and I don’t know if he’s showing the same kind of disparity, but given that Scott does much better (Scott 50-Sink 44 lead for Scott, MoE 4), I’m going to go ahead and guess that Rasmussen’s LV screen shows more Republicans, and more Republicans leaning toward Scott without being 100% for him yet.

Reuters and Ipsos also show Scott ahead, driven by an “enthusiasm gap” between the parties that we’ve seen in the past in other states, for a Scott 47-Sink 45 (MoE 4.6) advantage.

If I create a projection of this race based on these four polls the way I run my Senate projections, I come up with a 45% chance of Republican victory. But that 45% doesn’t reflect the polling well, as only one poll (Reuters/Ipsos) shows it very close, and all the rest show the situation moderately well for one candidate or the other.

My gut feeling here is that Scott’s base is still unhappy about the primary and it will take them a while to come into his column. But Bill McCollum voters aren’t going to go all-in for Sink, I just don’t see that.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • rdelbov

    I agree with that these results are hard to figure out.

    My sense of this race is that Sink has been pretty steady from 38 to45 on her polling from Jan 2010. Three way (with Chiles)-two way (with either McCollom or Scott) she has been in that same range.

    If you handicap a horse or a candidate after she has been around the track 7/8 of the race and she is still holding steady in the 40-45 range. That’s give a good idea of she needs up. Long way of saying I see more upside on Scott as Sink has risen or fallen to a pretty steady level.

    Now as to where the race is right now–tied seems like a good guess with Scott having a record of being a good finisher.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001624140602 BigGator5

    Rick Scott won me over with his running-mate pick, Jennifer Carroll. I know it sounds shallow, but I’m voting for Jennifer Carroll and not Rick Scott.

  • rdelbov

    is a great Lt Gov candidate. Current and future GOP star.

    think US senator 2012-in my opinion.

  • suzyq

    plus the branding of “crook” has stuck….thanks Bill.

    I live in FL and have been making daily phone calls, about 1/3 of those I speak to say they love Marco, but will never vote for that “crook Scott”. I’m very uncertain how this will all turn out.

    You’re right, it’s hard for me to envision Repub’s voting for Sink, but I can see them not voting for anyone to “show them a lesson”, what lesson I don’t know.

    Anyway, I will say that Scott was WAY more prominent on TV slamming McCollum during the primaries, now it’s like he’s fallen off the radar. Which is pretty annoying, I mean if you’re in it to win, why stop now, and that’s what it seems like from watching TV. I see Sink all over and Scott here and there.

    I’m hoping it’s more of a strategy to let the dust settle, but we’re running out of time, early voting starts Oct. 15

  • zornorph

    I don’t get it – why spend all that money if you are not going to follow through? I rate this pure toss-up, but my sense is that Rick is running too many ads saying ‘Sink=Obama’ and he needs to find a new message.

  • Adjoran

    Much or all of the difference is in the likely voter screening and the leaner vote.

    I doubt the “crook Scott” people will abstain, since Sink is sinking into the morass of her own scandal, and the facts are nowhere so much in dispute as with Scott’s battle with Medicare reimbursements.

    Also, Sink is desperate to salvage her campaign amidst the damaging news emerging. Scott may well be planning to own the airwaves for the last four weeks. At the rate she is spending, at the least she is going to have to spend some time out of state raising money during these critical final weeks, probably Scott will just be able to outspend her by a wider margin.

  • Oz

    How many people will honestly skip voting in the governor’s race while being gung-ho to vote in the Senate race … 10%?

    That seems too high.

    I would think that Scott will pull this out based on the enthusiasm gap but while I see a +8 point win for Rubio in a three way race, I think that Scott’s win will be closer to the 2, 3, 4, point range.

    This really is a big race… if you are in florida and talking to your friends, you need to make sure they understand the re-districting implications of this.
    Not voting for Scott could cost the GOP up to 2 house seats over the next 10 years.

  • cwilson
  • annas

    seem to be “tightening” in favor of the Dems?! What is happening? Does anyone here have an opinion? In my state of Texas, the governorship has moved from Solid GOP to Leans GOP. I have noticed that over the week, Fiorina has moved from leading Boxer by one point to about 4 or 5 down now. Is something happening that is going to allow these idiots to keep control of Congress?

  • zornorph

    At least, that’s what it says on the front of the book in nice, friendly letters. While there has been some good news for Dems in a few specific races, there has just been as much movement to the GOP in others. WV-Sen, WI-Sen, NY races – all these show significant GOP movement. The polling in FL-Gov has not changed much since the primary, but FL-Sen has shown significant improvement for Rubio as he consolidates the GOP voters.
    The Dems are spending a lot of $ – that is going to have some effect, but this is going to be a very good year for us, don’t doubt it.

  • proudmarinemom

    IMHO.

    I worked the phone banks here in Virginia for Gov. McDonnell’s campaign. I believe I reached a human being about .8% of the attempts. If I had been given the task of collecting poll data, I’d still be sitting there, dialing.

    Few people actually answer their telephones anymore, so I wonder how these pollsters can gather enough data to provide a reliable sample in a short time. I’m assuming the calls are made many, many days before the poll is released. One day can change everything, so it seems to me to be old news by the time we get to read it. I just assume a MOE at least twice what the statisticians tell us. It helps me sleep better.

  • yuletide

    The problem is that pollsters can’t figure where the voters will come from. If there is a large turnout in North and Central Florida then Scott wins. If South Florida voters shows up then Sink wins. After the primary, there were stories about how the Cubans stayed home because McCollum changed his mind on SB1070. The question becomes how many Cubans come out to vote for Rubio and how many of them vote for Sink because Scott’s wanting a SB 1070 for Florida.

  • yuletide

    Scott needs to start advertizing again and tell the people what he will do about home insurance, property tax, and schools,

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001624140602 BigGator5

    …

  • scotty481

    You have to allow for the retiree factor. Being retired and a Floridian, I always have to have a watch that tells me not only the date but, I make sure it tells me what day it is?.

    What was the question again?????

  • mboyle1988

    He’s going to win by at least 15. Watch. Scott will win by 2-5 points. Embarrassing for him, as he should win bigger in Florida in a GOP year, but he’s still going to win.

  • mboyle1988

    were always going to be hard wins. West Coast people are very strange, and for some reason don’t hate Obama like the rest of the country. He’s in positive territory in both states. The only state that really got away was Delaware, and that’s because we nominated the wrong candidate. We might still pull out wins in NY, WV and CT. Let’s see what Quinnipiac says tomorrow.