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Has Dan Maes been well and truly kneecapped?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 28th, 2010 at 01:30 PM  | 

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Colorado

Any political party must work as a team to win. While the primary process will become at times a competitive and even divisive, any inability to set those feelings aside and back the nominee will give the party trouble.

A few Republicans this cycle know what kind of trouble that is, but none has more than Dan Maes against Democrat John Hickenlooper for Colorado Governor. He got opposition from the national party, and he’s collapsed in the polls.

Back when Dan Maes was the fallback winner of the Republican primary, after Scott McInnis imploded, he wasn’t in bad shape. Tom Tancredo was splitting the vote, but the Magellan Strategies and Public Opinion Strategies both had Maes running well ahead of Tancredo, putting the third party candidate in position to fade and become irrelevant by November.

But after the RGA and other national Republicans made it clear they would not accept the will of the primary voters in this race, Maes has lost a dozen points in the polls, with Tancredo being a prime beneficiary of that. In the new Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll Maes is now in terrible shape, as the poll shows Hickenlooper 44, Tancredo 34, Maes 15 (MoE 3). Apparently when your own party attacks you, the voters aren’t inclined to support you.

If only it were always so easy to divine the reasons for shifts in the polling.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • kinggold

    …that the Colorado governor’s race was lost as soon as McInnis’ plagiarism scandal exploded. Maes was always the weaker and more poorly-funded candidate, and his refusal to leave the race is what kept Tom Tancredo in.

    The RGA and national Republicans could have done nothing and cannot do anything so long as Tancredo stays in. They are not to blame here.

  • deano64

    every time I think about this race it just makes me sick. Most of my family up there is resigned to the fact that Lickenpooper will be the next Gov. They are thinking that he’s probably not going to be as bad as Ritter has been. I’m not quite as optimistic. We can only hope we can take one of state houses back from the D’s.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    when you didn’t have a leg to stand on in the first place.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Where I come from that counts for something.

    Since when do we allow the establishment to decide which primaries actually count and which don’t?

  • callawyn

    The best thing that could happen now for conservatives and the Republican party would be for Maes to drop out and endorse Tancredo, to keep Hickenlooper from winning. Never happen, given the animosity between Maes and Tancredo, and how can a party encourage its own candidate to drop out of a race?

    Maes’ campaign is now hopeless, not just way behind in the polls but also WAY behind the other candidates in fundraising.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Not fringe nuts like Tancredo who allys with the Buchanans. He’s just not reliable.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    By forcing out the only good candidate early on, we got stuck with a candidate that is completely inept and unqualified. The establishment didn’t need to do anything to Maes, he’s crashed and burned all on his own by making up stories about his business acumen and police work. This is what happens with groups back a candidate without experience that they don’t know anything about. If there are skeletons out there to be found, they will be found.

    For me, this election has come down to a number. That number is 10. There’s no way Maes or Tancredo wins this thing unless Hickenlooper is caught with a small boy. For the GOP to remain a majority party in Colorado, Maes has to pull in at least 10% of the vote. If for no other reason, Republicans should vote for Maes to make sure he gets at least that, or it will affect every GOP candidate for the next four years.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    We have to get him over the 10% threshhold.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • philhoganjr

    now that we see maes cratering in the polls, what’s the best course of action? write off the race entirely and cede it to hickenlooper, or drag tancredo over the finish line? serious question.

  • SIConservative

    Neil, you’ve written before of the importance of races that impact redistricting. Right now, the Democrats control both houses of the Colorado legislature. Although it’s possible that one or both of those could flip, either way the Governor will have veto power over the new districts. Would you rather have Tom Tancredo with the veto pen or John Hickenlooper?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I want veto power for Republicans.

  • Iblis

    Tancredo is on a serious ego trip. He’s not going to be governor, but that’s OK. He was never going to be President either. Doesn’t matter. It’s a vanity campaign and he likes the attention.

    Maes can’t run a campaign, which gives me doubts about whether he can run a state.

    They both need to step aside and let the R’s put someone on the ballot who can pull this out. Lickenpooper has never polled better than mid 40′s. He’s beatable.

    And please, please, please don’t put in the execrable Jane Norton. There are good options. She’s not one of them.

  • congressworksforus

    I mean, seriously, sometimes it takes an episode like this to wake up rank and file Republicans to get off their fat, lazy rear ends and RUN FOR OFFICE NEXT TIME.

  • SIConservative

    but neither that nor a Maes victory is possible, just as electing a conservative to the Senate from Illinois isn’t possible, so we work with what we have.

  • wormyguy

    Maes is even more of a “fringe nut” than Tancredo.

  • powertothepeople

    Chavez was the wake up call for his country but in the few years he was given almost exclusive power, he was able to take complete control over every aspect of government.

    Plucking out your eye to spite your face is never a good idea. You only end up with the same face and now you are blind. The answer to the CO issues is to keep dems out of power at all costs, then concentrate and firing all republicans who need to be fired. Letting the dems win just to teach some republicans a lesson will do nothing but ruin your state just as the dems have nearly ruined this country. We were sure taught a lesson, but some of that lesson will never be able to be fixed, we are just stuck with an everlasting lesson.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister
  • congressworksforus

    We made sure we had good candidates without baggage… :)

    Now, 2011? Ahhh… different story …

  • congressworksforus

    I guess we cling a little better than the Venezuelans…

    Still, Colorado screwed this up… Colorado needs to fix it.

    And besides, I understand the House/Senate in Colorado look good this year; you can always change the ‘minority party’ rules to fix your little 10% problem…

  • natlanthem

    Then let it go to the Democrats.

    The failure is in building a coalition of voters around good candidates and even better policy. Instead, R’s failed on both counts plus dispersed the electorate by not supporting the vote. IE. the RGA and the Party crapped on the voters just like the Democrats the last two years, so what’s the difference?

    At least the Democrat is honest about his lack of faithfulness.

    Next time, if you get a next time, maybe you should listen to your voters, encourage more options to compete, then support a winner. Until then … /shrug

  • calgacus

    If all or almost all of his voters go to Tancredo, then Tancredo will win.

  • minister_of_war

    … but for those of us who have not lived on RedState non-stop since the day it was started, what does “nt” mean?

    There have been quite a few times on here where people put this in their comments.

    While I have enjoyed reading countless RedState posts & comments, I have also noticed other RedState terminology that many newer or less involved RedState fans would not know or understand.

    My suggestion is to make a “RedState Lingo Dictionary”. And don’t forget to put the definition of “nt” in the dictionary.

  • minister_of_war

    “five”?

    What the heck does that mean on RedState?

    Or at least I think people use that phrase on here to mean something that isn’t apparent to us novices.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    (nt) means there’s no text after the comment title.

    5 is a throwback to the original RS site software, referencing the highest rating on a comment, marking one of very high quality.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    So your comment was only for the other fat, lazy rank-and-file Republicans.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    it is so much fun to figure things out yourself.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    that the GOP couldn’t put up any candidate that would get more than 30% of the vote. I’ll I ever hear from people is who they won’t vote for.

    Neither Maes nor Tancredo are getting out, so you can still wish upon a star if you want, but the current candidates are the ones we have, and will have come election day.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister
  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

    1) “nt” is an abbreviation for “no text” which means that the entire content of the message is in the comment title. This in turn means that the reader doesn’t need to click on the comment, because what you see is what you get.

    Incidently, you need to put in a separator, such as -nt- (which is what I use) and there are some others that work too – otherwise the text editor will reject your attempt for lack of a text portion.

    2) “five” which is almost always written as a number, often expressed in various numeric permutations to indicate a superlative, and usually located in the comment title – means that the commented strongly agrees with the prior comment and/or thinks it an excellent comment.

    This shorthand apparently comes from an early version of the RedState platform in which readers were able to rate other comments on a 1 to 5 scale, 5 being the highest.

    Very rarely, someone may use a “1″ to indicate the opposite, but I’ve only seen this once or twice.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Actually, he’s hard to pin down. A lot like nailing jello to a wall. He’ll pretty much tell you whatever you want to hear. How would he govern? Probably a lot like Bill Owens did. He’d definitely be to the left of someone like Jane Norton.

    More than anything, he’s inept. That’s what has people worried the most.

  • tacoslayer

    Then sir….you need to open your eyes.

  • aesthete

    Because we know it’s going to be asked at some point:

    A “kowalski” is when you reply to your own comment to add information, a viewpoint, or whatever else you forgot to write in your original comment. It is named after a commenter who’s nom de plume is “kowalski”, known for replying to himself many, many times in the same post!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Technically there’s a difference.

  • http://herbal-nutrition.net/Billga Bill

    WHAT IS SO WRONG WITH TANCREDO? Sure, he is an immigration candidate, but surely he would be better than any Democrat in the Governor’s Office? As Joe Biden is telling his people, BUCK UP and hold your noses!

  • Iblis

    NT -

    You are way overestimating me. Or overestimating yourself. Either way, get over it.

    You are correct about one thing. Neither Maes nor Tancredo will drop out, and CO will have a Democratic governor. Get smug with that.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Here, we support the conservative in the Primary, and the Republican in the General. Tancredo decided for himself that the Republican candidates weren’t good enough, so he left and joined a 3rd Party, ensuring the Democrat would win.

    That’s not the sort of person I’m interested in supporting. Not now. Not ever.

  • deano64

    THAT’S WHAT’S WRONG WITH HIM! We support Republicans here not 3rd party traitors. Tancredo was my congressman for about 8 years when I lived in CO. I voted for him every cycle. I wouldn’t vote to make him Dog Catcher now.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    We already have a Democrat governor.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You should [come and] put (nt) at the end of your tag :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Oz

    Because that’s what this is …. either the Dem or Tancredo … the Republican ain’t coming in first here … you can read polls, right?

    Now, I agree with the principle on this site and push it very hard but I’m just wondering if we supported the Republican or Liebermann when he got in as an Indy ….

  • IJB

    And if “Majority Party” status is lost, what does it mean? And how do you get it back?

  • IJB
  • IJB

    I’m all on board with “Support the nominee in the General” about 99% of the time.

    But this race is the other 1% – the circumstances surrounding Maes’ “win” so taint the “results” of this primary that, were I in CO, I doubt I would just “accept” them. People can feel free to disagree with that – but that’s just how I see it.

    All I can say is – Thank God I’m not in CO this year!

  • pauly1620

    Where I come from (just so happen to be a Colorado native), integrity counts for something as well. The more that is revealed about Mr. Maes the more it is readily apparent that he lacks integrity and the ability to tell the truth. I have been a registered Republican since the age of 18 (over twenty years now) and I have been faithful to the party. However, nominee or not Mr. Maes has lost my vote due to his own actions. You obviously have not studied the situation here in Colorado. That is the only logical explanation I can conclude given your statement.

  • Christine (Trelaina)

    (had to do that :D )

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Right now, the GOP and Dems are listed at the top of all elections in the State. Third party candidates are listed below in random order. If Maes doesn’t get 10%, *ALL* GOP candidates will be downlisted on the ballots for the next 4 years. That means the Democrat will be listed first on every ballot for every election. Unfortunately, ballot placement matters.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    He has no integrity. He spoke out strongly against going 3rd party, then goes and does it himself. He said he’d drop out if Maes/McInnis dropped out. When there was discussion that Maes would drop out, he said, “nope, too late, I’m staying in now.” There’s even less integrity with Tancredo. If you can’t vote for Maes due to integrity issues, you can’t vote for Tancredo either.

    If you don’t vote for him, that leaves voting for the Libertarian or Hick. Either of those votes accomplishes the same thing.

  • Lloyd Davis

    Not to mention that Tancredo has been running against Maes while I have yet to hear Tancredo run an ad against Hickenlooper.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………

    ?Never say sorry – it?s a sign of weakness?
    John Wayne

  • Lloyd Davis

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………

    ?Never say sorry – it?s a sign of weakness?
    John Wayne

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    A vote for Maes prevents punishing all the rest of the Republicans here for the next four years. That’s a meaningful vote.

  • roscopico
  • cospgsrepub

    The bench in this state is embarrassingly shallow. The fact that McInnis and Norton were the initial establishment choices in their respective races when neither had run for elected office in years just proves that.

  • kowalski

    Not only is it hilarious it actually reflects the way its namesake (and others) think sometimes. Every person who thinks has a kind of internal monologue, sometimes involving more than one point of view. That was and still is my rationale for it, so it is not really a joke, it is actually a fairly widespread mode of thinking that nobody should feel badly about.

    Everyone has the moment when they sit back and say: “Oh, MAN I wish I had thought to say THAT! to that (guy/girl/werewolf)” at one time or another in their lives. It’s real and it’s funny, sometimes serious and sometimes tangential, which are not bad things to be in the fullness of their tasteful proportions. :)

    People also repeat themselves in ordinary conversation, they say the same things and say the same things sometimes in ordinary conversation again, and there is nothing wrong with that. :) As long as it leads to more productive discussions, and maybe some humor, I have never minded my name being used to indicate it.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    …STAY OUT OF MY PARTY’S PRIMARIES.

  • sch1168

    He’s done several ads against Hickenlooper.

  • sch1168

    (Sound of Josh Penry kicking himself.)

  • kowalski

    What happens is that the other thoughts arrive asynchronously, not precisely at the exact moment when their author would have wished. At least, mine don’t. People who write novels probably have the same thing happen to them, but they have a lot of time to revise. When you speak or write extemporaneously you do not usually have that option, so I decided to provide it with a smile :) .

    From the earliest time I can remember here at Redstate, editing comments once they were posted was forbidden and so I protested in a way by inventing the “Kowalski.” Particularly in the early days of Redstate there was something that only occurred to me after I hit “Post” that needed to be said, sometimes humorous and sometimes not.

    It stuck and I’m grateful to everyone who uses it in the original spirit. It should be fun. It should be humorous, it should be a little different than what you originally wrote, a different aspect of what you thought the first time, perhaps.

  • tngal

    While all have held seats, they are all usurpers, or benchwarmers, now. Nonetheless, they are playing by the rules and can enter as third party candidates. As activists we can only do so much in a given race. The real candidates are responsible for debating well, fundraising well, carrying minimum baggage, fending off false attacks (see webster/grayson race) and campaigning tirelessly.

    (Never spell HER name correctly as she is running a campaign on how to spell her name)

  • JSobieski

    Trancredo ain’t worth screwing the entire state for 4 years.

    I cant believe that Maes didn’t agree to step down.

  • http://practicalgopvoter.blogspot.com/ texasproud

    Tancredo is in it for Tancredo. We aren’t giving him enough TV time for him to feel like a superhero to save our lives. I could never stand him, never believed he was sincere, and wish he wasnt acting out his revenge now

  • roscopico

    “People also repeat themselves in ordinary conversation, they say the same things and say the same things sometimes in ordinary conversation again”

    LOLLERS!

    Like seeing a post starting “kowalski” posted by “kowalski”. I can’t tell you how much that cracks me up!

    Once something’s on teh webs it is delible and temporary, right? I don’t know, but I suspect your name is the new “Mulligan”. (I use the verb “kowalski” IRL, and suspect you’ll see it in the wild yourself pretty soon!)

    My best to you!

  • graciegirl

    At our Tea Party meeting today I asked her rep if she has EVER endorsed Perry; was told she is supporting some no name third party person, I was livid. She got what, 18% of the vote in the REPUB primary, has a ton of loyal followers and won’t throw them to Perry?

    And remember when Glenn Beck outed her as a truther??

    Yes Perry is ahead but he is not as popular as you would think…can you say Trans Texas corridor? Bill White made Houston a sanctuary city and just about ruined it financially. I can just see him teaming up with O to continue to close Texas refineries, hitting oil from both ends and of course vetoing all the R legislation! Omg, immigration.

    It’s funny how so many ppl inTX think Murky and Castle are horrible but Medina is fine. My argument is then she should have run as an Independent or Libertarian! Her bio says her experience comes from high up in RON Paul’s organization. Yikes! if she makes us lose….

  • Lloyd Davis

    of course I’ve been busy trying to find a job in this wonderful economy.
    I’m so glad the recession ended over a year ago… I was starting to get worried.

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    ?Never say sorry – it?s a sign of weakness?
    John Wayne

  • AB

    There are no good options in Colorado right now. If Tancredo wins, Republicans down the ballot will suffer for four years. We’re talking State House, State Senate, County Commissioners, Sheriffs and the Clerks (among others). Is that a decent trade?

    But even that is a very, very big “if”. What if Tancredo loses by 5 points and Maes gets under 10%? Then what? We could have the conversation about trade-offs if Tancredo was leading Hick in the polls, but as it stands right now, the most likely outcome is lose-lose.

    If you want blame, there’s plenty to go around. The primary electorate embraced someone who was completely unvetted – he said the right things, but no one bothered to find out if he was who he said he was.

    You can blame both Tancredo and Maes as well: neither were willing to do what’s right. Both had chances to step aside for an electable conservative Republican nominee.

    For me, the primary blame rests with the party leaders. Ever wonder why there was only one alternative to McInnis? Because the party leaders forced the Senate Minority Leader out of the gubernatorial primary last year with some not-so-veiled threats.

    Now, it’s too late. The ballots have been printed, and I think NightTwister is right that the responsible vote is for Maes.

  • minister_of_war

    -nt- ;)

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