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Raese now leads both West Virginia Polls

Raese Manchin

Some states get seven or eight polls of their Senate races. West Virginia has had two: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. And honestly it seems that we were lucky to get PPP to jump in there.

But now that Rasmussen’s latest is out, it’s official: Republican John Raese leads all the current polling over Democrat Joe Manchin.

Yes the PPP poll I already covered, and the new Rasmussen now has Raese up 48-46 on the popular Governor. I assume he’s still popular, but apparently Rasmussen is no longer openly publishing even the favorability ratings for candidates, let alone the crosstabs.

If we ever needed an example of whn the President would do best to stay away from his party’s candidate, this is it with Barack Obama and Joe Manchin here. Manchin again is the popular Governor of his state, but Barack Obama is so unpopular that he is managing to invert the conventional wisdom of local politics and strong candidates by taking down Manchin.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

  • bk

    Manchin is on the run from Obama/Reid/Pelosi. In the campaign, it seems like he’s asking voters to believe that he’ll oppose much of the liberal agenda – while voters KNOW that Raese will oppose it.

    It seems like kind of a reversal here – why vote for Republican Lite if you can vote the real thing?

  • NeoKong

    Sweet.

    Duck hunting season is coming.
    Sitting ducks.
    Lame ducks.
    And dead ducks.
    Quack me a river.

  • Sundayjack

    If this keeps up, some hippies are going to need punching.

  • jeffreywturner

    Will the winner of this election be seated immediately since it is a special, or will he be seated in January?

  • crosley

    I actually think this seat will likely go Republican (more likely than say Nevada), and I’m glad Raese jumped in. Capito was too scared to run (again) and I bet she’s kicking herself now.

    The NRSC should make this seat a priority. I get the impression they’re treating it as a longshot bid. This is where a million dollars makes a HUGE difference.

    There’s also stormclouds over Democrat Manchin regarding a federal probe that I see putting even more wind in Raese’s sails.

    I think the Democrat scam that’s been going on a long time in the South is finally over. There’s no such thing as a “conservative Democrat”.

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    and frankly, John Raese‘s meteoric rise in the polls & Joe Manchin’s catastrophic fall is nothing short of miraculous–and happened only because hundreds of thousands of fellow West Virginians are paying attention to how Joe Manchin was a rubber stamp for Obamacare (on which he is now trying to flip-flop).

    This evening, this ad debuts, exposing Manchin’s duplicity on coal and cap & trade:

    The law referenced in this ad is the Alternative and Renewable Energy Portfolio Act, which our Democrat-controlled Legislature passed at Manchin’s request on a near party-line vote during a special session in 2009 as HB 103.

    Within another week or two, we will see excerpts from this video in a future Raese campaign ad:

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins
  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    This is a special election for the slightly more than 2 years remaining on the term of office of the late Sen. Robert C. Byrd. The winner will be seated before January 3.

    However, I fully expect the Democrats to try to delay the certification and seating of the winner because either (A) John Raese would be a major impediment to everything the Dems will attempt during their scorched earth lame duck session or (B) Joe Manchin would rather interim Sen. Carte Goodwin, who has been a reliable rubber stamp for Barack Obama and Dingy Harry, cast as many of the votes as possible to relieve a Sen. Manchin of the burden of voting for all the awful stuff that will be attempted during the lame duck. To this end, partisan Democrat Secretary of State Natalie Tennant will cloak herself in a hyper-technical interpretation of the state Election Code under which she will argue that she must wait several weeks for each of the 55 counties to canvass and certify their respective election returns and some additional time for her to certify the statewide results. However, unless there is a legitimate recount, the right thing would be to follow the tradition that often prevails in most special elections in which once the losing candidate concedes, the “winner” is immediately handed his/her certificate of election and the other necessary paperwork to present to the Senate for his/her swearing in. If you will recall, the Democrats in Massachusetts delayed the seating of Sen. Scott Brown, R-MA, earlier this year, during which time interim Sen, Paul Kirk voted.

    Let there be no doubt: as soon as the polls close on November 2, this campaign moves immediately to getting John Raese sworn in. John Raese has already spoken at several events about the fact that he intends to be sworn in as a United States senator on November 3, 2010, and will fight tooth and nail to stop the scorched earth lame duck Democrats.

  • IJB

    (P.S. I’ll believe the “conservative Democrat scam in the South” is over when Dan Boren and Gene Taylor are sent packing along with Allen Boyd…)

  • chipbennett

    Both PPP *and* Rasmussen showing Raese with the lead – and, clearly, the momentum.

    So, Neil: if we start to take an optimistic view that WV will be a pick-up in November, what does this do to your overall Senate projection? (Noting also that Kirk holds a similarly slim, but steady, lead in IL, and CT seems to be possibly breaking our way, too.)

    And call me crazy, but I think the real election-night surprise will be Rossi in WA.

    So, what are we looking at: likely 50, with a potential for 52? What do you think?

  • tcgeol

    She is too much of a moderate in a good year to get rid of them in favor of conservatives. Frankly, she just isn’t a reliable vote and Raese should be.

  • bk

    to say that they are filibustering everything until he gets seated.

  • chipbennett

    Likely Voter is my friend!

    R+7, 5% chance of gaining Majority.

    I’ll have some follow-up comments, hopefully later tonight. I want to put some thought into evaluating the projection assumptions.