Back when Democrat Patty Murray got several good polls all at once, taking nearly double digit leads over Republican Dino Rossi in the Washington Senate race, I didn’t think it was a fundamental shift of public opinion. I called it a “good week,” and when her leads dropped, I said the race was returning to a tie.
The new Rasmussen suggests I was right and in fact the Washington Senate race may take on the form of the Nevada one: very close.
In fact Rossi shows one of those very tiny leads that is essentially a tie: 48-47 (MoE 4), for a 54/46 split, clearly in coin flip range. Add in SurveyUSA’s 50-48 in favor of Murray, and the pair of polls two weeks ago at Murray +9 becomes old news.
The reason I bring up the Nevada comparison is that so far, this race’s polls have traced a shape similar to the Nevada pattern. The Republican challenger took a very early lead, dropped significantly, and finally bounced back into a tie. If Washington is a race that stays close the whole way then it could become a high leverage state like Nevada, too, because I believe most of the state’s population is all in the Seattle media market. Portland will also matter, but given that they are the 13th and 23rd largest media markets in America, the state is still a bargain when compared with California or Illinois.
Moe Lane
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Jeff Emanuel
Portland is in Oregon, not Washington
wonder95 Thursday, September 30th at 8:30PM EDT (link)Considering Portland is in Oregon, and not Washington, I don’t think Portland will have much effect on the Washington Senate race.
Portland media market
Darin_H (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 8:41PM EDT (link)Vancouver, Washington is on the other side of the river, and is a heavily R area, Rossi will need big turnout there, hence he will need to spend money on Portland stations.
A visionary coward says that anger can be power, as long as there’s a victim on TV – Flat Top, Goo Goo Dolls
Vancouver WA is just across the river
kingdomservant Thursday, September 30th at 8:44PM EDT (link)Yes, but Portland has a big suburb in SW Washington, Vancouver, which also is the major population center of the 3rd Cong. district, currently leaning R.
Right now Murray is spending more
JoeG Thursday, September 30th at 10:36PM EDT (link)I’m seeing at least a 3 to 1 difference in the ads on the Portland market.
What’s awesome is that the local media stations have run segments calling Murray’s ads dishonest.
Southwestern WA is in Portland's media
c17wife (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 8:40PM EDT (link)market, I think,
King County will make or break him. If dead people vote in large numbers, Murray will win. If not, Rossi has a very good chance of pulling this out.
There is a state income tax proposal on the ballot this year. My guess is that anyone opposed to a state income tax will think long and hard about sending Murray back to DC. Voter turnout should be high because of this issue.
Lastly, in my little utopian suburbia out here on the peninsula, there are Rossi everywhere. And signs that say no more taxes, balance the budget…vote republican. And…there have been citizen run booths with Impeach Obama petitions. Here in Pierce County, Norm Dicks’ home district!!!
Rossi shouldn’t schedule the moving van just yet, but I really think he can take this thing. WA stupid if they pass on him a 3rd time over a tennis shoe wearing, do nothing, woman.
Duty is ours, outcomes belong to God.~Mike Pence
Heard mr Rossi speak today,
tollen Thursday, September 30th at 9:18PM EDT (link)He was excellent, better than any time in the past.
I was impressed with his recall of facts and numbers, including earmarks “provided” to our state by the incumbent.
He should do media buys at the Portland/Vancouver metro market
Patty Murray, queen of earmarks:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/earmarks.php?cid=N00007876&cycle=2010
Close or tied in Washington is not enough
IronDioPriest (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 9:47PM EDT (link)Rossi knows this only too well, having had two elections stolen out from under him and the people of Washington. The margin must be substantial going into election day, or the Democrats will steal. We already know they have the machinery in place to do it, because they’ve already used it over successive election cycles.
If the victory on election night is not decisive, Rossi loses by election fraud.
“If we finally fail in this great and glorious contest, it will be by bewildering ourselves in groping for the middle way.”
-John Adams, 1776
Join in the conservative forum discussion at “It’s About Liberty”: http://www.itsaboutliberty.com
I really wish the E Wash. clerks sit on the talley
JoeG Thursday, September 30th at 10:34PM EDT (link)What does the law say about releasing the vote count? I would say that the Eastern half of the state should sit on the count totals so that King county won’t know how many boxes to find under the stairs.
They can't
Lammo (Diary) Friday, October 1st at 11:32AM EDT (link)RCW 29A.60.070: Cumulative returns for state offices, judicial offices, the United States senate, and congress must be electronically transmitted to the secretary of state immediately.
Statute here:
http://apps.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=29A.60.070
Don’t be so open minded that your brains fall out. (John Corapi, The Black Sheep Dog)
How fast do they have to count?
JoeG Friday, October 1st at 6:11PM EDT (link)It would appear that as soon as the vote is counted, they must turn them in.
That begs the question of how fast do they have to count?
Not too fast it appears
Lammo (Diary) Monday, October 4th at 12:15AM EDT (link)but that may be due to the nature of our all mail-in vote here in WA (the only county that has any remaining actual polling places is Pierce (Tacoma area)). Election night it seems the only ballots that get counted are the ones turned in before election day with the rest dribbling in over the next two weeks or so. Still, you can sense a trend from that first day’s worth of counting. With any luck the Secretary of State’s computers will crash again and nothing will be known for a while.
Don’t be so open minded that your brains fall out. (John Corapi, The Black Sheep Dog)
No Writing Micky Mouse at Polls
lbjgal (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 10:20PM EDT (link)I remember last time the conservative candidate had a chance in Washington state, Please do not write Micky Mouse . Please vote for the GOP candidate or pay a price of permanent poverty !
lbjgal
Go Dino
proudgop (Diary) Thursday, September 30th at 11:08PM EDT (link)Go Dino
We notice the races starting to shrink further ( ND, AR, IN, WI, PA and now CO all look very good for us; plus all our current open races)
NV, IL ,WV, CT, WA, and CA are races where Dems seem to be fighting still
WA could be a twofer
Adjoran (Diary) Friday, October 1st at 4:18AM EDT (link)The tight race will draw in Democratic dollars that would have gone to other races, not defending third-term incumbent seats.
And then we win anyway, plus the benefit to the other races . . .
This is the sort of hope and change we can live with!
How Can Anyone Vote for Patty Murray?
Spartan4Life (Diary) Friday, October 1st at 10:40AM EDT (link)What has she been in DC, 20+ years? What are her major accomplishments for the people of Washington or the United States? Spit, that’s what.
It really shakes my faith in the American people when they vote for the same imbeciles over and over again(Murray, Boxer, Reid). C’mon Americans, wake up and smell the tea.
Liberal Guilt
lbjgal (Diary) Friday, October 1st at 3:04PM EDT (link)I am from the left coast, what keeps Murray in office is the white liberal guilt. Sorry folks … However is the truth hurts. Liberals believe money solves all problems. Funny thing the money ends up in pockets of the governent.
lbjgal