This poll was cited on the am radio news, and I was wondering what was behind it. Sounds like what’s behind it may be an empty space where the wind whistles freely.

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Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

But here in Illinois, the media counterattack to Brady, Kirk, etc., is beginning to roar to life. I knew the races here would tighten, and that the backlash would come. The leftists whose livelihoods depend on this state remaining in corruption have too much invested to let this go quietly. They are terrified, horrified, at the prospects of losing so much in this election.

Consider: Should the GOP/Tea Party wave sweep across Illinois, it could result in the Dems losing a Senate seat, at least one house of the state legislature, the governor’s mansion, the majority position on the state Supreme Court AND the ability to redraw the congressional and state legislative districts in 2011. This could be nothing short of catastrophic for them.

They know what’s at stake. Now we’ll see just how well our side can answer. After watching the state GOP thrash about for the past decade like a raccoon that has just been hit by a car, I’m not hopeful, if it’s left to them. So we can’t leave it to them.

I know everyone has their favorite races out there, what with Redstate heroes like Christine O’Donnell and Ken Buck seeking support. But if there was ever a time to drop a money bomb in Illinois, the time is now. These races are winnable and could change the political structure of this state for at least the next six years. Please, help.

Are they generally–generally–to be taken with an eye toward whatever spin the candidate is trying to effect?
I’m in regular contact with a federal candidate whose internals look great, but he’s not releasing them. Maybe he wants to hide in the weeds.

what is causing the polls to tighten so much in Kentucky for Rand Paul? I understand there will be a debate between the two candidates on Chris Wallace on Sunday. What has led to this? Anyone know?

…the Chicago Tribune has published an insanely out-of-step, pro-Quinn poll. While I don’t doubt that 6-8 points of Brady lead will tighten heading into the election, no one around here really thinks Quinn has a chance. Brady’s attacks have been thoughtful and accurate, and Quinn’s have become increasingly… oh, I don’t know, Graysonesque perhaps?

My suspicion is that this is all about selling papers. It ain’t news if it’s the same thing as yesterday. Kirk has his work cut out for him, but I have little doubt Brady will win the governor’s mansion.

polled IL voters feelings on Blago, Rahm, and Jesse Jr.

PPP found that IL voters are sour on Blago, Rahm, and Jesse Jr. 83% of IL voters look down on Blago.

It must have pained Tom Jensen to publish those results.

(i.e., this was likely a very good poll for Brady.) …Or is that over-thinking things? How often are cross-tabs released for Chicago Tribune/WGN polls? (i.e, was non-release of datasets standard practice for the Chicago Tribune/WGN?)

that the editorial boards at both the Trib and Sun Times, plus downstate rags’ editorial boards at the Springfield Star Journal, Decatur Herald, et. al have been equally brutal towards Brady while seeming to give Quinn a pass. Oh, they’ll taunt Quinn, but the attacks have been mild compared to what has been slung towards Brady.

The downstate turnout will be key to both the Governor and the Senate race. Brady has many of us downstaters quite satisfied and will drag Kirk across the finish line – hopefully. Back in 2006, Judy Baar Topinka took 68% of the downstate vote, if Brady can push that percentage up related to higher than normal turnout downstate, I think that some of the Chicago turnout out can be neutralized. In 2002, the last time Illinois had a Senate and Governor seat up in a midterm, only 22% of voters turned out. Another reason downstate turnout could make all the difference in the world, IMHO.

No data, no crosstabs, no dice.

100% of those responding to my scientific survey of geniuses said the Trib and WGN are asp-holes.

It’s really simple, really – they simply didn’t push “leaners”.

Note that Quinn is at the same 39% in this poll that he’s been in every IL GOV poll for the last several months. (And, I’ll just reiterate again – any *incumbent* that is consistently polling at 40% *WILL* lose.)

It’s Brady’s numbers that have come way down in this poll. So, how did The Trib. do it? – They simply didn’t “push” Brady “leaners” (who are likely numerous).

I can imagine that polling calls went something like this…

POLLSTER: Who do you intend to vote for in the IL Governor’s race, Brady or Quinn?
RESPONDENT: I intend to vote for Brady.
POLLSTER: Are you sure to vote for Brady, or are you just leaning?
RESPONDENT: No, I’m pretty sure.
POLLSTER: But are you ONE HUNDRED PERCENT sure?…
RESPONDENT: Uh… well, no, I guess I’m not *100%* sure.
POLLSTER: Oh, OK, I’ll put you down as “undecided” then…

I’m pretty sure this is how this poll got this particular result…

for us in that he still has not been able to get to the 41% mark. Most polls have him around a 60% disapproval, even if third party candidates take 9% of the vote like the Trib poll suggests the winning candidates still needs 45.6% to win. Quinn hasn’t been able to get voters to see him as a less worse option than Brady. All Brady needs to do is remind voters who have swung back to the “undecided” column why they distrust Quinn and he is doing it with ads hitting the public sector employees union deal Quinn made. I would like to see Brady come out strong for the forensic audit that was the center of the Andrejewski campaign as its a two prong weapon, in that it is a solution to fixing the budget gap in a way that doesnt hurt anyone not in the political class and two when Quinn rejects as a solution as a another example of him not taking on corruption in the state.

Attack ads are calling Brady “Millionaire Bill Brady” followed by some misrepresentation of facts. Those ads are complete bull, but they will have SOME effect.

We can’t take Illinois for granted.

By the way, Chris Christie will be coming to town Tuesday to rally in support of Bill Brady.

October 5, 2010
Rally 5:30-7:00
Doors open @ 5:15
Finish Line Ford Showroom
(old Menard’s Building)
2211 W Pioneer Park, Peoria

Questions call Becky Weber 309-369-1133 or email mweber@mtco.com