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I have a rule about internal polling

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 1st, 2010 at 04:00 PM  | 

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Illinois

Scientific polling, based on the laws of probability and the compounding of likelihoods, is a mathematical activity. It’s all about the numbers. Without the numbers no poll has meaning. That’s why I highlight key facts like Margins of Error.

Your typical internal poll release is very low on numbers and instead is a one page memo. Those releases can be based on sound polling practices, but they are firstly designed to push an agenda. When I see this new Illinois poll, I am reminded of an internal poll release.

I’m not accusing the Chicago Tribune and WGN of fraud. I have no reason to suspect that. But when I have to wade through paragraph after paragraph of opinion and armchair analysis in order to get basic data about the poll, I’m suspicious.

When I write about polls here, I too add my own paragraphs of analysis, but I link to the polls directly, and right away, so that my readers can see the same raw data I’m reading and draw their own conclusions, or at least re-check my assertions.

The Tribune doesn’t give us the raw data when it goes on and on attempting to explain why Democrat Pat Quinn might have taken a lead on Republican Bill Brady in the Illinois governor’s race. Instead we are given the top line (Quinn 39, Brady 37, MoE 4), and cherrypicked crosstabs chosen to support the conclusions made by the author.

But without seeing the raw data, we have no way of knowing whether this poll has signs of being an outlier or of having an ineffective Likely Voter screen. We also can’t do our own checks for signs of other interpretations of the data. We can’t even check if the author made basic mistakes in reading the poll. Mistakes happen.

Last night on Twitter I mis-read a poll and ended up posting the wrong analysis, forcing me to retract when I saw my own mistake. We have no way of knowing if the Tribune’s analyst misread a table, so I have no way to build on this poll and think about it meaningfully.

I will instead ignore it. If I were making projections of Governor’s races, I would not weight it. I work with numbers, not words. I need data, not opinions. My rule about internal polls, and similar polls like this from the Tribune, is that without the data they are worthless. Otherwise why take the poll at all?

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • redneck_hippie

    This poll was cited on the am radio news, and I was wondering what was behind it. Sounds like what’s behind it may be an empty space where the wind whistles freely.

  • redneck_hippie
  • jb13

    But here in Illinois, the media counterattack to Brady, Kirk, etc., is beginning to roar to life. I knew the races here would tighten, and that the backlash would come. The leftists whose livelihoods depend on this state remaining in corruption have too much invested to let this go quietly. They are terrified, horrified, at the prospects of losing so much in this election.

    Consider: Should the GOP/Tea Party wave sweep across Illinois, it could result in the Dems losing a Senate seat, at least one house of the state legislature, the governor’s mansion, the majority position on the state Supreme Court AND the ability to redraw the congressional and state legislative districts in 2011. This could be nothing short of catastrophic for them.

    They know what’s at stake. Now we’ll see just how well our side can answer. After watching the state GOP thrash about for the past decade like a raccoon that has just been hit by a car, I’m not hopeful, if it’s left to them. So we can’t leave it to them.

    I know everyone has their favorite races out there, what with Redstate heroes like Christine O’Donnell and Ken Buck seeking support. But if there was ever a time to drop a money bomb in Illinois, the time is now. These races are winnable and could change the political structure of this state for at least the next six years. Please, help.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But I don’t want anyone panicing because of one shady poll by one biased source.

  • swami7774

    Are they generally–generally–to be taken with an eye toward whatever spin the candidate is trying to effect?
    I’m in regular contact with a federal candidate whose internals look great, but he’s not releasing them. Maybe he wants to hide in the weeds.

  • annas

    what is causing the polls to tighten so much in Kentucky for Rand Paul? I understand there will be a debate between the two candidates on Chris Wallace on Sunday. What has led to this? Anyone know?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That anyone would confuse my hackery with Moe’s polished writing is a big compliment to me.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If all you get from a candidate’s internals is that classic one page memo, there’s something missing and you can’t really trust it, in my view.

  • ChicaGOP

    …the Chicago Tribune has published an insanely out-of-step, pro-Quinn poll. While I don’t doubt that 6-8 points of Brady lead will tighten heading into the election, no one around here really thinks Quinn has a chance. Brady’s attacks have been thoughtful and accurate, and Quinn’s have become increasingly… oh, I don’t know, Graysonesque perhaps?

    My suspicion is that this is all about selling papers. It ain’t news if it’s the same thing as yesterday. Kirk has his work cut out for him, but I have little doubt Brady will win the governor’s mansion.

  • ChicaGOP

    Watch the polls and you’ll see it’s a statistical hiccup amplified through the media’s increasingly panicked filters.

  • ChicaGOP

    When everyone else had him up 10-13. Then they called it a “slight lead.”

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/ct-met-tribune-poll-governor-20100903,0,2106516.story

    No detail on the sample, but if it was all taken within 3 blocks of Tribune Tower, that’s about the only way they could have gotten these results. The story about forgetting how much Illinois there is south of I-80 is absolutely true.

  • chihank

    polled IL voters feelings on Blago, Rahm, and Jesse Jr.

    PPP found that IL voters are sour on Blago, Rahm, and Jesse Jr. 83% of IL voters look down on Blago.

    It must have pained Tom Jensen to publish those results.

  • congressworksforus

    The main one being that no one takes them seriously.

    So why put it out there and invite ridicule, even if it’s a good poll and is accurate…

  • SoFiMil

    (i.e., this was likely a very good poll for Brady.) …Or is that over-thinking things? How often are cross-tabs released for Chicago Tribune/WGN polls? (i.e, was non-release of datasets standard practice for the Chicago Tribune/WGN?)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But I suspect if we saw the full data we’d see a sample that includes a lot more Democrats than other polls are predicting will show in November.

  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    The Trib did a poll about the Senate race at the same time of the poll you linked to. I noticed that in the Senate race, the Trib broke down the calls to Chicago proper, collar counties and downstate. The Brady/Quinn poll you cited did not mention this spread of voters polled.

  • http://www.downstateiladvocate.com anacreon

    that the editorial boards at both the Trib and Sun Times, plus downstate rags’ editorial boards at the Springfield Star Journal, Decatur Herald, et. al have been equally brutal towards Brady while seeming to give Quinn a pass. Oh, they’ll taunt Quinn, but the attacks have been mild compared to what has been slung towards Brady.

    The downstate turnout will be key to both the Governor and the Senate race. Brady has many of us downstaters quite satisfied and will drag Kirk across the finish line – hopefully. Back in 2006, Judy Baar Topinka took 68% of the downstate vote, if Brady can push that percentage up related to higher than normal turnout downstate, I think that some of the Chicago turnout out can be neutralized. In 2002, the last time Illinois had a Senate and Governor seat up in a midterm, only 22% of voters turned out. Another reason downstate turnout could make all the difference in the world, IMHO.

  • redneck_hippie

    Explicitly calls out Quin for a continuation of pay to play. Heh

  • Adjoran

    No data, no crosstabs, no dice.

    100% of those responding to my scientific survey of geniuses said the Trib and WGN are asp-holes.

  • Coop

    … to looking at where the campaigns, the partisan campaign committees and third-party groups are spending their money. That will tell you all you really need to know about public polls. For example, I don’t care which Senate polls you’ve looked at over the past few weeks. This excerpt from today’s Hill article tells me all I really need to know:

    “…[t]he DSCC has not reserved any television airtime in Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina or Florida, according to Republicans who have tracked it.

    The party committees can launch television advertisements at any time, but they often reserve time in advance to lock in lower rates. While strategists say the calculus may change, they believe the decision not to reserve time in those states signals that the DSCC has written off those races…

    …[t]he DSCC is running ads in Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.”

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/122029-dems-face-hard-choices

  • IJB

    It’s really simple, really – they simply didn’t push “leaners”.

    Note that Quinn is at the same 39% in this poll that he’s been in every IL GOV poll for the last several months. (And, I’ll just reiterate again – any *incumbent* that is consistently polling at 40% *WILL* lose.)

    It’s Brady’s numbers that have come way down in this poll. So, how did The Trib. do it? – They simply didn’t “push” Brady “leaners” (who are likely numerous).

    I can imagine that polling calls went something like this…

    POLLSTER: Who do you intend to vote for in the IL Governor’s race, Brady or Quinn?
    RESPONDENT: I intend to vote for Brady.
    POLLSTER: Are you sure to vote for Brady, or are you just leaning?
    RESPONDENT: No, I’m pretty sure.
    POLLSTER: But are you ONE HUNDRED PERCENT sure?…
    RESPONDENT: Uh… well, no, I guess I’m not *100%* sure.
    POLLSTER: Oh, OK, I’ll put you down as “undecided” then…

    I’m pretty sure this is how this poll got this particular result… ;)

  • Illinicon

    for us in that he still has not been able to get to the 41% mark. Most polls have him around a 60% disapproval, even if third party candidates take 9% of the vote like the Trib poll suggests the winning candidates still needs 45.6% to win. Quinn hasn’t been able to get voters to see him as a less worse option than Brady. All Brady needs to do is remind voters who have swung back to the “undecided” column why they distrust Quinn and he is doing it with ads hitting the public sector employees union deal Quinn made. I would like to see Brady come out strong for the forensic audit that was the center of the Andrejewski campaign as its a two prong weapon, in that it is a solution to fixing the budget gap in a way that doesnt hurt anyone not in the political class and two when Quinn rejects as a solution as a another example of him not taking on corruption in the state.

  • merryj1

    Wouldn’t he be expected to pull votes from Quinn, especially in Cook, thereby helping Brady?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Committee spending is not free of political pressures or personal biases which can force it to go beyond what a strict, objective strategy would demand.

  • Brian Hibbert

    Attack ads are calling Brady “Millionaire Bill Brady” followed by some misrepresentation of facts. Those ads are complete bull, but they will have SOME effect.

    We can’t take Illinois for granted.

    By the way, Chris Christie will be coming to town Tuesday to rally in support of Bill Brady.

    October 5, 2010
    Rally 5:30-7:00
    Doors open @ 5:15
    Finish Line Ford Showroom
    (old Menard’s Building)
    2211 W Pioneer Park, Peoria

    Questions call Becky Weber 309-369-1133 or email mweber@mtco.com

  • GreyCloak

    In Chicago over the weekend, the only signs I saw were for Cohen (on the tri-state) and Brady (on lawns all the way out past Aurora).

    Please understand that Chicago will vote solidly Democratic (as always), and the rest of Cook County will be split, tending Democratic.

    On the radio, a mention of Quinn linked him to previous (ie, Blagoyavich) corruption.

    So, my feel is a small margin for Brady if “downstate” gets out the vote as well as Chicago always does.

    Here’s a debate among all gubernatorial candidates:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/videobeta/?watchId=104270de-71a1-4c71-98cf-a3e22c57ac20

    Just to put things in perspective, it was Republican Governor Ogilvie who committed political suicide by passing the original Illinois Income Tax in 1972, an election year. It was 1 1/2%, and has since doubled to 3%.

    Some have proposed a “temporary” surcharge. Quinn proposed an increase to 5% back in April.

    Saturday’s Trib endorsed almost exclusively Republicans in races outside of Cook County, both as incumbents and challengers. Note that it is a useless exercise to endorse any but Democrats in Chicago proper.

    FYI … from three days’ observation “on the ground”

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