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My list of the four closest Senate races

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 12th, 2010 at 07:01 PM  | 

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Murray Rossi

Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each:

Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West Virginia between Republican John Raese and Democrat Joe Manchin.

Illinois: Rasmussen Reports has a new poll today on the Illinois Senate race, and Giannoulias takes the tiniest of leads: 44-43, MoE 4. This comes one week after the poll had Kirk+4. This is an unusual race in that both candidates are relatively unpopular, but whatever the reason, neither one seems capable of sustaining a significant lead.

Nevada: The inspiration for today’s post, we’ve got two very similar but opposite results: Fox News/POR has the race at Angle 49-Reid 47 (MoE 3), While PPP has the race at angle 45-Reid 47 (MoE 4.4). Average the two using my formulas and the advantage is slightly to Angle, but Reid’s taken 3 of the last 7 polls, so it’s not exactly a runaway.

Washington: This race has been swingy, but I’d personally characterize it in the neighborhood of the new Fox/POR poll: Rossi 47-Murray 46 (MoE 3) gives Rossi a very small lead.

West Virginia: A late entry this cycle, given that nobody knew that Byrd was going to die, and the in-state debate on whether a special election would be held, but it’s clearly a real race. Raese was starting to run away with the Real Clear Politics chart, rattling off four straight after Manchin’s four straight, but PPP’s newest at 48-45 (MoE 2.8) in Manchin’s favor brings that back closer to even. Of the four I think this one is the least likely to end even, but Manchin is so popular in state and is showing himself willing to throw his party under the bus to get elected. Obama’s hugely unpopular in state, so that matters.

So if you want to give money to Senate candidates, I personally would recommend these four, and especially to [Rossi, oops! That's what I get for quickly adding cheerleading to a crosspost from UV!] and Angle as the highest leverage candidates: close races in smaller media markets.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • callawyn

    You do great work, Neil, but I think you’re getting a bit punchy :)

    Murray is the corrupt, big govt, dumb as a bag of hair socialist we’re trying to throw out. I don’t think we want people sending her money.

  • SIConservative

    I agree that those are the four most competitive Senate races, though I’d say that California just barely misses the cut. The only thing I’d disagree with is the recommendation that people give to Angle. She raised $14 million in the third quarter. The race is highly competitive and by no means a lock, but at this point I don’t think her not having enough money would be an issue. If people can give their time to her, that’s well worth it. If it’s money, though, I think the other campaigns would be more in need.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

    by which calculation West Virginia and Illinois are the most critical. But really, we need everyone.

  • rdelbov

    polls on both NV & WV were off. The NV poll did not have enough indies (only18%) and the WV had too many democrats.

    Neil I agree with your assessment. You got the stuff at your site but its a real quick summary. The GOP holds its open seats and loses no incumbents.
    The republicans have a clear edge in PA-IN-WI-ND-AR-CO.

    The Fateful Four races-NV/IL/WV/WA- are certainly tighter then the other six. One could make a case that all lean just a bit to the republicans but they are all certainly within MOE. I personally sense a GOP tide but that’s just me.

    How about this for an un-reported story Neil? The GOP has had a clear fininancial edge in PA-NC-FL-KY-OH-IN-IL-ND-MO. Looks like about a tie on the money spent/raised in NH/CO/AR with self funders putting WV/CA/WI in similar ties. I was going to say that in only NV & WA was the GOP at a disadvantage in money after Angle’s 14 million who knows? Perhaps only in WA will the GOP be outspent.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • IJB

    If you flip a Quarter a bunch of times, you may get a ‘run’ of Heads (polls over the past month or so showing Kirk ahead), and then you may get a run of Tails (polls over the last week or so showing Alexi G. ahead), but that fact is the Quarter has both Heads and Tails so neither really dominates!

    That’s what I think is going on in the IL SEN race – I think both candidates have gone from less than 40% to about 42-44% over the past couple of months (i.e. their support has *slowly* crept up, though at roughly about the same rates), but neither has ‘broken’ out, and they’re effectively TIED.

    Like everyone else, I ultimately give the slight edge to Kirk, because I think Brady is going to get a slight advantage of GOP-leaning voters to the polls. But it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if IL’s ‘far Blue’ tendencies win out, and Alexi G. sneaks through.

    Whatever happens, IL SEN is going to end with a 51%-49% (two-party) result. Or *closer*…

  • fbks

    It was considered a safe Republican hold, might be in question now?

  • Finrod

    Rasmussen has California a toss-up and West Virginia as leans GOP, since the latest Rasmussen poll of WV had Raese up 50-44. Still, since Fiorina is heavily self-funding, I’d agree that the four you list are definitely the four most in need of donations.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • AKSteveB

    so hard to know how close it is.

  • NeoKong

    Brady is ahead of Quinn for Gov.
    Giannoulias has way too much dirt in his background even for Chicago. Plus they must be scandal weary from Blago, Jackson Jr., Rezko and Burris.

    The minority vote will not be particularly decisive as it’s just two whites guys running and no one exciting.
    It’s not personal for them like it was last time.
    Obama was their hero who would make their lives better.
    Giannoulias might also be a little too ethnic for the black community who may not have fond memories of mobster types who are also bankers.
    If the inner city turnout is weak then Kirk will win.

    I also do not think that Rahm Emanuel running for mayor of Chicago is turning anyone on either. He has been gone a long time and for him to just show up at the last minute as if the mayoral race is just a formality seems a little arrogant.
    Chicago has been hurting and where the hell has he been…?

    In other words, Democrats have not given Illinois any reason to vote for them.

  • chihank

    Neil, do you consider a Lisa Murky win a hold for the GOP. Even though, Murky says she will caucus with Mitch McConnell, I would expect her to form a RINO coalition with the Maine Sisters to pass Obama’s agenda under the guise of bi-partisan. Murky has accepted donations from unions and other Dem groups. Plus the AK media is pulling the stops for Murky. Ironic since the AK media hated Frank Murky as Governor.

  • itsjoanne

    http://www.nationalreview.com/battle10/249481/angle-campaign-reports-raising-14-million-third-quarter-elizabeth-crum

  • congressworksforus

    Because everyone “knows” that Alaskans are too dumb to be able to spell her name properly.

    Sorry, couldn’t resist.

    But seriously, being a write-in is bad enough; being one with a name like that just makes it even harder.

    And even the polls that don’t prompt her name but show her getting high % points I bet don’t ask the respondent to spell the name…

  • congressworksforus

    But that doesn’t mean she has it in the bank either.

    She’s spent an incredible amount trying to keep up with Dirt-bag Harry’s slanderous attack ads.

    But someone, somewhere is giving her an awful lot of cash to make sure the slimeball is sent home for good.

  • congressworksforus

    Has anyone given pause to think if Harry Reid is trying to throw the Senate to the Republicans? I mean if you look at half the things this guy has said in the past 3 months you really have to wonder…

    If I were him, I might be a bit tired of alway being the 3rd wheel in the Obama-Pelosi-Reid triumvirate….

  • AKSteveB

    that anything close will work. The Rule is “the intent of the voter.” I’m pretty sure even “Lisa M.” will count.

  • proudgop

    I really don’t get how IL voters can even put in Alexi the guy was a disaster on Meet The Press this past weekend and he is likely to be in slammer next to Blago soon

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I just rated that seat (for my post going up at UnlikelyVoter.com later) 75% R victory. If I rated Murkowski winning as an R winning it’d be more like 99% R victory.

    But 75% is nowhere near the closest. IL I just rated 50%. I’m on IA right now so I haven’t done NV, WA, or WV.

  • IJB

    The AK AG was supposed to issue a more definitive ruling on this question, but I’ve heard nothing on that for weeks now.

    But I am absolutely *positive* that Miller’s forces will sue if they try and accept votes that simply say “Lisa M.” And they should. And they’ll probably win.

  • audax

    …her name is spelled J-O-E M-I-L-L-E-R, it’s pretty easy, even for “dumb” Alaskans!

  • rpopp23

    Just to clarify, the mayor’s race is not until Feb. 22, 2011. People are talking about it now because Rahm left, but that is all. It won’t affect this election, from what I can see.

  • AKSteveB

    Erick et al:

    Are any of you in touch with Miller’s campaign? They are letting this get away from them!

    [COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT REDACTED - NS]

  • Finrod

    Rasmussen moved WV back to Tossup status today.

  • proudgop

    Sharon Angle just won the debate and did very well. Harry Reid couldn’t fidn his notes for closing and looked lost.

    I think she will get minimal bounce cause minds are made up but this might be enough in end