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Feeding the hunger for House polling, continued

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 13th, 2010 at 02:00 PM  | 

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House

We now enter week two of The Hill’s series of district by district polls in pre-selected close races. Week one had some good results for Republicans and week two seems to say much of the same.

Once again, I’m not a big fan of the public House polling that’s out there. It’s not done often enough by enough pollsters in any one district for me to feel particularly comfortable in covering it.

Polling is by its nature a probabilistic activity. One poll, one time could mean everything or it could mean nothing. We need multiple polls to even begin to get a good idea of a situation.

So I link to these hoards of polling for reader interest, but I don’t personally plan to use them in any substantive way.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • jomo2009

    If ever there was a job for the Swing-o-meter, this is it!

  • IJB

    In addition, to those Hill polls, RCP has these:

    PA-11 (Franklin & Marshall):
    Kanjorski (D) – 40
    Barletta (R) – 47 (+7)
    ANALYIS: Kanjorski is TOAST. :)

    VA-05 (SurveyUSA):
    Perriello (D) – 41
    Hurt (R) – 52 (+11)
    ANALYSIS: SurveyUSA has shaved their margin – their results are more in line with other polling showing a much closer race. But, if SurveyUSA is correct, Perriello is still toast in VA-05. :)

    NY-01 (Siena):
    Bishop (D) – 51
    Altschuler (R) – 39 (-12)

    NY-19 (Siena):
    Hall (D) – 43
    Hayworth (R) – 46 (+3)

    NY-23 (Siena):
    Owens (D) – 44
    Doheny (R) – 39 (-5)

    ANALYSIS: I generally distrust Sienna. All I can get out of these results is that Hayworth is definitely favored in NY-19; Doheny has a good shot in NY-23 (esp. if they can get the word out that Hoffman dropped out); and I don’t know what to make of their NY-01 results except to say that I basically don’t buy them (Bishop is winning Indies?! *Really*??!!).

    NJ-12 (Monmouth)
    Holt (D) – 51
    Sipprelle (R) – 46 (-5)
    ANALYSIS: This is the most shocking result of all – if it’s even this close in NJ-12, the Dems are going to get SHELLED on Election Day! :D

  • saintgeorgegentile

    Real Clear Politics has moved this raise from Likely Dem to Leans Dem. The former mayor of Salt Lake City (uber-lib Rocky Anderson) is going to be writing in Spongebob Squarepants over Matheson.

    http://www.heraldextra.com/news/local/article_bcbc4d04-3ac2-5a36-92b7-f40926765d20.html

    “Utah’s most outspoken liberal is urging people to vote for a Republican rather than fellow Democrat Jim Matheson.

    “He’s turned his back to every possible constituency,” former Salt Lake City mayor Rocky Anderson told K-TALK radio in one of two recent interviews. Matheson is facing Republican Morgan Philpot of American Fork in the U.S. 2nd District race.”

  • saintgeorgegentile

    http://www.philpotforcongress.com/