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The air war tightens the California race

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 14th, 2010 at 02:15 PM  | 

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Fiorina Boxer

As I’ve not been shy about saying, I have an emotional attachment to the California Senate race. I live here, I’ve always lived here, and in fact Democrat Barbara Boxer was first elected to the Senate when I was first beginning to follow politics, back when I was 14 years old.

So I knew the television ad campaigns would make or break the race for Republican Carly Fiorina, and sure enough, we’re now seeing a tightening trend in the polling.

Boxer had a good September. She ran up leads as big as nine points, and was as strong as she’s been since the year begin. But the last three polls, taken as the air war has been in effect, have all been close: SurveyUSA 46-43 Boxer, MoE 3.9. Reuters/Ipsos 49-45 Boxer, MoE 4.5. And now Rasmussen 49-46 Boxer, MoE 4.

It’s always remarkable for three polls to show such similar results, all showing three or four point leads, and nearly identical lead probabilities. It’s 66/34 race if I run my projection methodology on these polls, which means the ad war has tightened the situation from a quarter chance for Fiorina to third.

Some analysts have said that California is immune to the TEA party effect seen in other states. I don’t see how that can be objectively confirmed when the Sarah Palin-backed Fiorina has kept Boxer from reaching a single double digit lead since the Field poll ending January 17. This is a tight race, this has been a tight race, and it seems reasonable to guess that the candidate with the larger and more effective television ad campaign will pull through.

In funding her side of the air war Barbara Boxer has the benefit of two large fundraisers held on her behalf by the President. Carly Fiorina has the benefit of a successful business career giving her the personal means to spend. Both have outside groups behind them. Either one can win this. Boxer just hasn’t gotten the traction against Fiorina she’s had against other Republicans she had in 1998 and 2004.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • IJB

    (Well, either that, or I’m *older* than I thought! :o )

  • http://www.ArchitecturalShots.com mdyou

    And although this is anecdotal, these people are depressed about this election. Three of my liberal friends aren’t going anywhere near the polls this cycle. The local blog post, a filthy den of far-left radicals, is silent on the elections. Two years ago they were as fired up as everyone else about The One.

    I don’t think Boxer and Brown are going to make it.

  • crosley

    I’m still optimistic about Fiorina’s chances, I think she’s the best nominee we could have put up, but the fact that Boxer has lead every poll for the last few weeks is depressing. I’m hoping our turnout can overcome this deficit.

    If we can’t win in California with a top-tier candidate like Fiorina that’s unquestionably well-funded against arguably the most unlikable Democrat you could possibly go up against, and be in a political climate that’s more hostile to Democrats than anything I’ve seen in my lifetime, we’re in trouble in CA.

    The demographics may just be too great to overcome, and it’s something Conservatives need to look at long term, if it’s worth putting resources in such an inhospitable and expensive state.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • uhangtight

    and the only policy issue they talk about still after all these years when you mention Boxer is Pro-Choice. That is it, I truly believe this woman has won based on that single issue here in Cali for way too long.

    Here’s hoping that Carly can punch a hole in this windbag for good.

  • JoeG

    Carly has grown quite a bit more of her hair back. Given how women feel about their hair, I’d suggest as fresh a one as possible.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

    …until the last stake is driven though vote is counted – and recounted – and recounted again.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    For those of us outside of Cali, Jerry Brown won’t really effect us, but Boxer has been a drag on the entire country for a long time.

  • eastbaylarry

    then we probably lose this one.

    On the brighter side, I have seen *no* enthusiasm here by the dems, so maybe they will all stay home.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m looking forward to using her official Senate portrait.

  • Tbone

    is going to win. I’m not seeing much enthusiasm on the Demo side and if that holds true, the turnout will tell the tale.

  • crosley

    It’s definitely a tight race that can go either way, but all the polls are pointing in one direction from different polling firms over several weeks.

    Even if it’s within the margin of error, it definitely doesn’t inspire confidence.

  • securitymom

    I see that as a good sign. I know we will vote, but I don’t see any enthusiasm on the other side. I’m not sure how she did on the donations yesterday, do you know Neil? Perhaps I am all into the hopey changey thing this election…

  • tomato

    Maybe the state is too big? Or Whitman has super saturated everyone into fatigue? But there is little excitement.

    I sense CA is more resistant making Obama look bad. This is not a red-state, not purple. I feel guilt to vote Republican here. But I think it will be competitive and close. LA, SF, and Sacramento are hellfire hotbeds for liberal Democrats. Move away from the water, and it is certainly Tea Party friendly. Central valley, where there is no water by Federal law, is a good example. The homemade signs would make Boxer call for the repeal of the 1st Amendment.

    Would anyone crawl across glass for Boxer?

  • ceili_dancer

    Did we give up when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?… But seriously, we have just under three weeks and are within striking distance. It is easier to be the aggressor in these situations than fighting a prevent defense. We need everyone’s head in the game and as many boots on the ground these last few weeks to put a stamp on this cycle.

  • earlgrey
  • Oz

    even if you are not in california, remind your conservative friends via facebook to vote.

    LIstened to an interesting podcast today that makes me think that we could be WAY UNDERESTIMATING turnout this year (i.e. that the normal “likely voter” screens aren’t going to work).

    If we somehow actually beat the Democrats in their worse case scenario (i.e. Gallup’s +18) then we’re talking a +94 based on Neil’s swingometer although I think it might be low because the swingometer may not have data like this to work off of.

    I also suspect that a gap of that sort would give us all of the RCP tossup seats meaning a 51, 52, or 53 GOP senate.

  • JoeG

    Beauty may only be skin deep but Boxer is ugly to the bone!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Seriously. You don’t know what you’re talking about and it shows. You’re not even citing specific polls or trends. You’re just babbling generic nonsense.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    How did you read his comment about Dem apathy and turn it into a snipe at Fiorina?

  • Tbone

    put on the ballot to help Dem turnout in the midterm. Still, I think Carly picks up at least a 5 point swing in these numbers from a low turnout on the Dem side.

  • momma

    nt

  • IJB

    I know you’re probably busy, but if you get a chance, can you do an analysis of today’s NV GOV polls?

    Rasmussen’s results for NV GOV are Sandoval +15; PPP’s results are Sandoval +9.

    Either PPP is skewing Dem, or Rasmussen is skewing Republican (, or both!), but it seems like PPP has been pretty consistently, like, +6 more Dem in its results than Rasmussen this cycle.

    I’m hoping you can shed some light on what’s going on here…

  • tomato

    Living in SF bay area of California. I see the resistance to anything that’s not left. Until you drive away from the water, that is. I acknowledge the difficulty any non big-D candidate faces. Obama is more popular in CA than most any other state even IL. Utter, despondent Democrat apathy in California is a 50/50 for a Republican. Yes, Fiorina needs to step it up. If she was up by 10 in polls I would have said the same.. If we say, it seems that way because the MSM is underplaying her enthusiasm, then she must fight that too. I don’t cheer lead for the sake of it.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    +9, +15, Reid the Younger is toast, has been toast, will be toast.

  • tomato

    I forgot to mention, my Congresswoman is Nancy Pelosi. Not exactly a bright light in the Conservative movement. Please consider the glasses I look through.

    I wrote what I wrote because I want to see more of Fiorina.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Seriously, Tbone says Democrats are down.

    So you say “I agree” that Fiorina is depressed.

    It’s like you took away the exact opposite message.

  • tomato

    Agreed, Dems are down. However, apathy is not a campaign strategy.
    I want to see more fire worthy of a Senatorial candidate from the nations most populous state.

  • crosley

    Neil,

    Do you have “secret” polls that shows Fiorina ahead that I should be citing? Every poll that’s cited in this post shows Fiorina behind, and it’s been that way for several weeks.

    You didn’t list the California race in your “4 Closest Senate Races” for this election cycle.

    http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2010/10/12/my-list-of-the-four-closest-senate-races/

    I guess you also don’t consider to be such a close race.

    Does every post need to be “we’re going to win?” I really don’t think my post saying I don’t like that the polls have us behind in California is going to throw the race to Boxer.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Stop posting in my CA threads.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    REally smart trying to use my own math against me, as though I don’t know it.

    Double Facepalm

  • crosley
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But we know what one is too, don’t we? :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think her ads have been pretty dang cutting though.

    The point about change starting with electing different people is awfully pointed I think.

  • student

    Watching Boxer in the Congressional hearings is just painfully embarrassing. What a moron. People may or may not like Fiorina’s policies but at least she is bright, articulate and accomplished.

  • emaberk

    2 – 3% so there’s not a lot of room for making up ground for Fiorina. Its not impossible to get people to switch their vote but its harder than getting undecides.

  • theBlur

    One thought, that 2-3% undecided only shows those who are likely to vote who are undecided, per their response to the polling person.

    You don’t have to get them to switch, as much as you have to get some of those “likely” voters that trend Boxer (in this case), to “un-decide” to vote. And that can happen.

    And one should not underestimate the enthusiasm factor in all of these races. I understand that “young” (see first post) Neil has formula and such, but sometimes, as happened in 1994 when many polling pundits underestimated the fact that the quiet, non-verbal majority basically gave then Pres. Clinton the high middle finger on his policies. I’m sure Neil would be the first to say, “polling is a very inexact science!”

    Today, those “quiet” folks have what they consider a voice, the Tea Party. So I’m no so sold on polls where the difference is within the margin of error – like in 1994 I think that “some” of them may end up being rather respectable blowouts for the conservative candidate.

    But, hey, that is just this old guy’s take, although I take heart in what David Willhelm (?) DNC said back in 1994 after the Republicans basically ignored all polling and beat their pants off

    “…we got our butts kicked.”

  • IJB

    My point is that PPP seems to be fairly consistently producing results that are around +6 more Dem than Rasmussen this year (e.g. WV SEN, CO SEN, FL GOV, NV SEN, etc.). Considering that the NV GOV race polls from these two firms came out on the same day, I figured it’d probably be easier to look ‘under the hood’ and figure out what accounts for the difference…

  • emaberk

    But regardless SurveyUSA back in August had 47 – 42 Fiorina and now shows 46 – 43 Boxer, thats not a good trend no matter how you slice it.

    I hear a lot about the enthusiasm gap but it doesn’t seem to be reflected in any polling coming out of the big races in California.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I suggest noting that PPP uses a relatively broad LV model, which helps Ds after 2008.

  • iowapresidentialwatch

     


    In 2004,
    Sen. Barbara Boxer helped     CodePink put
    $600,000.00 in the hands of ?the other side?
    as American troops risked their lives in Iraq…   It’s time to
    SACK BOXER!

    Read

    Scott Swett’s article in American Thinker     for details…

  • iowapresidentialwatch

     


    In 2004,
    Sen. Barbara Boxer helped     CodePink put
    $600,000.00 in the hands of ?the other side?
    as American troops risked their lives in Iraq…   It’s time to
    SACK BOXER!

    Read

    Scott Swett’s article in American Thinker     for details…

  • IJB

    See here.

    Frankly, I don’t buy it – I think something very similar was said in 1994, and despite the pre-election prognostication Republican voters came out of the *woodwork* in CA in ’94 like never before, and the Dems were *buried* statewide (they even lost their numerical majority in the State Assembly during ’94-’96!…).

    CA is significantly more Democrat now than it was even in ’94. But I still don’t feel like there’s any enthusiasm on the Dem side around here, so I think there is very likely a very real “enthusiasm” gap.

    Guess we’ll see in two and a half weeks…

  • crosley

    Not everyone you disagree with is a liberal “sleeper” agent.