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On the new West Virginia polls

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 15th, 2010 at 03:30 PM  | 

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Raese Manchin

Since Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia Governor and Senate candidate, literally shot a copy of the “Cap and Trade” bill that DC Democrats tend to support, it’s been clear that Republican John Raese’s easy days of running against Barack Obama were going to get harder.

But the new Orion Strategies poll for Marshall University of the race just isn’t credible.

Opinions appear to differ firstly about whether Orion Strategies itself is a neutral firm. Politico says it is. Real Clear Politics on its recent polls list gives it the telltale (D) representing a firm aligned with Democrats. My own research shows the firm seems primarily to work for foreign countries, but domestically its own webpage highlights work done routinely in primaries among Democrats, and not for Republicans.

Some may find it odd that a former John McCain worker founded a firm working for Democrats, but then again conservative opponents of John McCain wouldn’t find it odd at all. So the facts are out there, and we all can take them as we like in terms of the firm’s individual bias, if any.

So, onto the poll itself: Manchin 48, Raese 38, MoE 4.6. That’s a solid lead for Manchin. But do we believe it? There are two other polls out which also concluded on the 12th, and they tell a different story: CNN/Time has a 44-44 tie. Rasmussen Reports gives Raese as 49-46 lead, with an MoE of 4.

Manchin +10 isn’t even close to that previous PPP poll which showed a 3 point Manchin lead.

So my inclination is to discount this poll, and still to consider West Virginia one of the four closest races as we near election day, and a key, high-leverage state in the Senate battleground.

From Unlikely Voter

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  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    I ask because is campaigning there, as opposed to say Nevada or Seattle….

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Obama is campaigning in DE….

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think Coons is in great shape. One poll has O’Donnell getting a 10 point bounce off of a debate. Even if further debates sustain that bounce, she still has a long way to go.

    But DE would be a big step toward a majority change in the Senate, and the Dems want to make sure they hold that. It’s their firewall against a total Senate collapse.

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    1 good debate draws all that enemy fire away from more vulnerable targets. Bonus!

  • qsclues

    …that Obama is largely in DE on the “Put the idiot where he can do the least harm” strategy; kind of a political version of the “Dilbert Principle” (i.e. the least effective employees are systematically promoted into management where they do the least damage). He’s too toxic to go campaigning in close races, so they put him in DE where he can’t possibly mess it up for Coons…can he?

    (Cue poll showing a slight closing of the gap.)

    I also suspect that it’s also partly because he’d like to pretend to take some credit for Coons’ victory.

  • ffc99

    Neil? The Rasmussen Reports poll released today tracked with their previous polling in the race. On Sep 15th they had it at 53-42 Coons and today it’s 51-40 Coons.

  • earlgrey

    Corzine, Coakley, Virginia Dem Candidate for governor. Perhaps he is picking the most solid pick so he can be associated with a winner.

    Next, he’ll campaign for Leahy in Vermont.

  • http://www.mullinslawoffices.com/ Jim Mullins

    Orion Strategies is owned by Curtis Wilkerson, who is currently the campaign manager for Democratic congressional nominee Mike Oliverio. This poll is the latest desperate ploy by Democrats to try to energize their comatose base and throw cold water on ours. Moreover, this poll was done as much–if not more–for the benefit of Mike Oliverio than Joe Manchin. Oliverio’s chances are directly dependent on Manchin’s.

    The type of voter who will vote for John Raese is not likely to split his or her ticket. Almost every vote for Raese is guaranteed to be a vote for David McKinley, Shelley Moore Capito, or Spike Maynard, as well as many other down-ballot Republican candidates. In any area of the state where Raese wins by more than 5%, virtually all Democrat candidates running for local offices in that area are DOOMed.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Four polls in a row have it about Coons+20

    RR then has it about Coons+10

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    Pretty please w/ Cinnamon :)

  • ffc99

    However, those polls were not conducted by Rasmussen Reports. The last one they did was on Sep. 15th or so and it had roughly the same numbers as the one released today, with the same 11pt gap (Rasmussen also had a 10 point gap between Coons and O’Donnell in pre-primary polling). All other polling done around the time of that Sept. 15th Rasmussen Reports poll had the gap in the 15-20% range. Seems to me that the differences between Rasmussen Reports and other pollsters might be due to differences in polling methodology. In short, I’d need to see one of the other polls (Fox News/CNN/Survey USA, etc) show some tightening before I conclude that there’s been a 10pt O’Donnell bounce.

  • earlgrey

    I am the worst kind of optimist and the worst kind of pessimist rolled into one, Neither part of me thinks we can get rid of Leahy, but I’d still love to see The One campaign for him.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Finrod

    The previous poll was Coons 49, O’Donnell 40, Castle 5– but IIRC those voting for Castle pretty much all said that if they couldn’t vote for Castle they’d vote for Coons. So call that 40-54 against O’Donnell, which makes the latest update of 40-51 look like there could possibly be movement towards O’Donnell. If we can trim that lead to single digits next update, then I’ll be considerably more hopeful.

  • throwback59

    to implode, especially after Obie campaigned there.
    I can dream, can’t I?

  • Adjoran

    But it makes perfect sense: in a state typically 50-50 nationally but leaning Democratic in state races, if the voters rebel it will be across the board, not just in the top races.

  • tea4me

    …that thing could win her the election. Coon is an absolute dufus. And the voters in DE are even more so if they elect this guy.

  • tea4me

    Oh well…..

  • The_Gadfly

    I think you had it right the first time too.