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The Fiorina surge is on

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 15th, 2010 at 07:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Fiorina at the San Jose Chamber of Commerce

It’s no wonder that the Chamber of Commerce, feared by Barack Obama, is ready to spend another $1.25 million educating Americans about the dismal failure that Babs Boxer’s 28 years in DC have been. Since Carly Fiorina started her ad offensive and kept piling on, the polls have been moving.

The television barrage has come just at the right time. While a month ago it looked like Boxer was threatening to take a double digit lead and make the race far less competitive, the newest poll has it a virtual tie.

Yes, the poll by Ipsos for Reuters gives Boxer that tiny 46-45 (MoE 4) lead, which is as close to a coin flip as you can get without managing to register an exact tie in the poll. 55/45 by the math, you can probably find ordinary quarters on the street that are biased that much.

The ads are working. Carly seems to be using the same strategy she did last time: Keep it close, keep it close, and then once it’s almost over, just start hitting, and hitting, and hitting, until the opponent just can’t keep up.

No Ma’am Babs has more money than Carly’s primary opponents did, so she’s not quite going down as easily, but the polling trend is undeniable. Five polls in a row at 4 points or less. I just might have to call it a five seat battleground instead of four, adding CA to my previous list of WA, NV, WV, and IL. The race is getting that close.

This is happening. This is real. We can beat Barbara Boxer.

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  • fbks

    to your battleground state list. Sure getting worried about the Dem McAdams coming in from behind while Lisa batters away on Miller. McAdams has had zero media vetting (realize that is a misnomer), few know him outside Sitka and although he seems “clean” (other than being a lock step Dem) that is because nothing is known of him.
    The knock out fight between Lisa and Miller turns off a lot of “moderate” voters and Lisa has a lot of “moderate” support. These people are likely to go to McAdams. Whether or not you call a Lisa victory a hold for Republicans, it is more possible now than ever McAdams could pull this off. It is true that there are a lot of conservatives who do not answer “polls” or anybody they do not know from outside, just consider this a possible canary in the mine comment.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The current polling is a total joke there.

  • fbks

    I like to take Redstate breaks for reality check on what is going on around the country from trusted sources of information.

  • Tbone

    can hammer Boxer these last 3 weeks and keep her under 50, that the low turnout will get her.

  • IJB

    Fiorina winning will be great for the country.

    But Brown winning will be an utter disaster for the state – we’ll declare bankruptcy within 2 years if Brown and his goons take over CA… :(

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m going to laugh so much if the pro-life candidate wins and the pro-abort loses.

  • izoneguy

    She really needs to run a spot where she calls Brown a bald-headed fart and a guy that the Taliban would respect.

  • Mary Beth

    I’m located in NE Tennessee but our local Tea Parties have kind of merged to include a chunk of SW Virginia…specifically Boucher country.

    As I’m getting more involved with the TP (I’m working on their site revamp) and getting more interested in the Boucher race (and since my guy Roe is a shoe-in), I’m curious if you know anything about this race.

  • NeoKong

    Whitman may be down in the polls but if Democrats don’t go to the polls then she could take it.
    I have to wonder if the Prop 19 initiative to legalize marijuana could indirectly hurt her.
    To thousand of potheads the thought of having a governor who has the nickname Moonbeam might sound good.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So I really can’t say.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Heh.

  • Mary Beth

    We’re working hard to oust him and hopefully Boxer can join him on the ash heap of political history.

    *drags the comment back on topic*

  • waxmanlaw

    The turnout model in the poll is 42-36-22. So they are reflecting the GOP intensity but what I think they are missing is the independent conservative intensity. I think the better model would be 39-35-26. In that model Fiorina is ahead by 3% and Meg is tied.

    It is all those Perot voters from 1992 coming back to life.

  • simba

    I noticed there are more repubs supporting Carly than Meg. I think this is because she did not move to the center after the primaries.

  • simba

    They had me worried!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Check the front page or UnlikelyVoter.com

  • sundesy

    Contrary to the myth, but for Carly’s strategy there will be no HP today. She saw the writing on the wall. It would have gone the way SUN, at least SUN had good technology and defensible intellectual property. HP had none of it. HP culture was insular and resisted to adapt to the changing reality. She took on the old geezers at the board, stoic work culture, lethargic and established senior management, set the new strategy that paved the way for today’s HP.

    Boxer a ‘me too’ senator, just rubber stamped bills based on a partisan basis. Does not even has the low level IQ to defend her stance.

    People like Boxer are bad for the state, bad for the country. She cannot pass this time even in a liberal state just because she has a ‘D” next to her.

  • emaberk

    but I admire your optimism.

  • proudgop

    Whitman and Carly for wins. Carly still needs money she has less then 2 mill COH while Boxer has 6 mill

    I hope Whitman spent a lot on GOTV cause that will help Carly I think. Its going to be close living in a city you can see just how easy it is to get vote out and I can assume Dems have huge advantages by just doing that in LA, San Fran, San Jose, Oakland, and Sacramento but here is hoping voters want someone less combative

  • GregInFla

    Boxer talked about supporting tax cuts. Well, Babs, you need to look at your record: Boxer voted “Present”, as did four other Senators on the 2001 Tax relief bill. And she voted against the 2003 Tax relief bill. The only tax relief people got from Boxer would be the lower tax bill from being unemployed.

  • IJB

    …It’s more than one poll – the trend over the past 2 weeks is clear.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But I Guess facts don’t matter, eh?

  • smitch61

    My cousin lives in Citrus Heights, said her and her husband are scared to death of a Brown win. They have lived there their entire lives. She cannot believe the people that are voting for Brown. Hang in there though…. your on my prayer list.

  • smitch61

    HP mean?

  • smitch61

    Generally heavy voter turn out in CA?

  • cordpt

    Fiorina was HP’s chairman and CEO.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • securitymom

    Thanks for the update. The thought of “call me Senator” beating Carly is something I can’t even wrap my thoughts around.

  • emaberk

    I really do admire your optimism, its just your methodology isn’t sound.

    The polling trend you link too shows Fiorina and Boxer tied at the mid Sept. and then Fiorina tanks for a month. Fiorina gains in the first week of Oct. but Boxer matches thoses in the same period. Its only been in the past couple days Fiorina has actually gained a point or two, thats hardly a surge. I say your optimistic because it MIGHT be the beginnings of a surge but its too soon to tell. It might just be a tightening of the race as the election draws closer which is normal.

    You also dismiss the polls out of Alaska? Why? Just because Murkowski is a write-in? Both Rasmussen and a poll by the Club for Growth show a toss up.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/alaska/election_2010_alaska_senate

    http://www.clubforgrowth.org/news/#2

    Alaska is also one of the few states where Republicans won’t turn out like they did in the 2008 elections so they might not benefit from the enthusiasm Republicans have going in other states. Its a perfect storm of unpredictability. Dismissing it outright is foolish but like I said I admire your optimism.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Read every link in my post.

    Stop lying.

    ????

    Don’t get banned.

  • emaberk

    Don’t take the criticism so personally.

    If you have any links about your thoughts on Alaska I’d like to read them. I was responding to your “The current polling is a total joke there.” comment which seemed rather dismissive of the situation in Alaska. What do you think about the Rasmussen or Club for Growth polls of that race?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • Adjoran

    had Carly riding Whitman’s wave, but it may end up the other way around.

    Still, it is hard to imagine even liberal Democratic California electing Jerry Brown. They’ve had him before. There’s a track record of failure which follows him from office to office.

    How stupid are these people anyway?

    ~~~~~~~~~

    Off topic on Alaska, but I can’t take a write-in seriously. The ONLY one who ever made a race of it was Thurmond, and there were strong reasons for that which do not exist here. No matter what they tell pollsters, very few people will actually write in a candidate.

    To suggest someone of Murky’s dubious character will be an exception is not credible. Prove it, and I’ll believe it. I still put her in low double digits at best.

  • fbks

    She has the support of the unions and rural Alaska and in fact a lot of special interests. I support Miller 100%, but can’t say he is running a stellar campaign. The media is having a field day on his Borough records.

  • joehnewyork

    Boxer is a racist. She thinks all black people think alike. Remember what she did to Harry Alford . Mr Alford straightened her out on the matter though.

    Please Check out song called teapartiers I can?t hear you at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJfboOindCo

    Here?s a verse

    Here?s a verse

    Doctors are retiring earlier but we?re getting 17000 new IRS
    This is how Obama creates health care jobs I guess
    For 234 years this country?s been God?s blessing.
    Now he?s following Cloward and Piven?s to bankrupt the country I?m guessing
    If Obamacare gives Grandma and Grandpa a scare
    Think how when their rationed and die earlier we?ll save on healthcare

  • mikerazar

    with more caution than you?

    You are one of redstate’s mvps for your diligent poll tracking, but you are not omniscient.

  • Aaron Gardner
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I linked to the record which shows a number of consecutive polls showing the race 4 points or less.

    That liar kept insisting it was just one poll and would not admit error. That made it clear he’s a propagandist working against the truth and against good news for Republicans and for radical, extremist, pro-abort, pro-Obamacare, pro-Cap and Tax Democrats, and so I booted him with pleasure.

  • charm2

    Wonder if the president of the Black Chamber of Commerce, whom Boxer offended when he testified before congress, is donating big time to Carly.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You’re getting uppity about people in other states, but you’re posing in my CA thread.

  • Berean

    Remember all these same pollsters were way off on the primary and on all of Sarah Palin’s elections in the state. The reason is simple – they tend to get the voter geography wrong, massively understating Kenai/Kodiak, Mat-Su (as in Wasilla) and Fairbanks whilst overstating Anchorage and Juneau.

    Correct the voter geography and the race is not close.