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Nevada is swinging Sharron Angle’s way

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 18th, 2010 at 03:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Angle Reid

For a while now I’ve been calling the Nevada Senate race tied. Before the primary, Repbublican Sharron Angle led comfortably. Right after the primary, Democrat Harry Reid won 9 of 10 polls. Then came a stretch of polls in the last few weeks of September which included 3 Reid leads, 3 Angle leads, and 2 ties. That was what I easily called a tied race.

But now we’re in a new era of the race, and I’m pretty comfortable in saying Sharron Angle has taken a slight edge.

It’s still a tight race, make no mistake. A result like Rasmussen’s newest at Angle 50, Reid 47 (MoE 4) only marks the race a 64/[36, ghastly typo] split, so by itself it’s not indicative of a trend. But Angle has now led 7 of the 9 polls in October, a distinct difference from that rollercoaster September.

Angle’s not a head by a large amount, but it’s clear to me she’s ahead. That could definitely go either way though, as I expect big money to go into this state from both sides this month.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • jomo2009

    and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

  • Adjoran

    His job approval has stayed under 50% all along, and in 41 polls of the race going back to last December, he hit 50% in exactly ONE – right after the primary and all the legacy media coverage dumping on Angle as “extreme.”

    Angle merely had to demonstrate that she isn’t some nut and the race should be hers to lose. She sealed the deal with the debate. I doubt the full effect of that event – and the media coverage of it – has yet been factored in.

    As for the third-party candidates and “None of these” option, in close races voters may express preferences to a pollster, but if they actually vote reality usually returns and they choose between the major choices, the ones with chances to win.

    This will also favor Angle, as it is difficult to imagine why anyone who might possibly support Reid under any circumstances isn’t already doing so.

  • zollistar

    …this election — or any other.

    LaborUnionReport wrote a really good post on this matter about a week ago.

  • rdelbov

    in your analysis. Let me two points or rather two comments.

    1. Third party candidates and “None of the above” have nearly disappeared in the polls. I remember one poll where over 10% either did NOTA or third party. Down to 3%–Reid/Angle in the premier senate election of 2010.

    2. Angle is +8% ahead with indies-or so I have heard-in this poll. That’s an edge-not a huge edge but it accounts for a substantial portion of this narrow edge.

    Finally two more points about what we have already seen in 2010 in Nevada

    1. GOP primary turnout topped democratic turnout despite a registration edge on the other side. The GOP even set a mid turnout record in Nevada. Is that a hint or a picture of what will happen on 11-02-2010.

    2. Harry Reid has already faced the voters once as he was renominated this year. In a contest with NOTA and several no name guys Reid just barely topped 75%, That’s in the democratic primary now–76% is a weak showing.

    I think Angle wins and maybe by several more % then this poll.

  • indyjohn

    by 10, considering Nevada’s economic problems alone, and Harry Reid’s contribution to them. Add to that Harry’s negatives – mendacity, arrogance, greed, an elitist sense of entitilement, and a complete lack of physical appeal (he’s about as sexy as a bunion) – and it’s difficult to imagine ANYONE voting for him voluntarily. In short, the guy is an embarrassment. Is there something fundamentally wrong with the voters of Nevada?

  • laxconservative

    means that you believe that he will split those last few undecided percentage points overwhelmingly in his favor, at least 70/30. I just don’t see that happening in a GOP wave year with a 10+ point Republican victory expected in the governor’s race.

    The debate was Reid’s last chance, and he could not effectively make Angle look like the extremist he tried to portray her as in his ads. I think he’s toast.

  • Libertarian Republican

    …but I really feel Tarkanian would be blowing Reid out of the water right now. A missed opportunity…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    After he stood up and started badmouthing our nominee, he proved himself an unserious person for the movement.

  • Jack_Savage

    Lots and lots of people and organizations have seen fit to show us their true colors. It is good to know who is welcome in the foxhole and who is not.

  • waxmanlaw

    I’m tired of sore loser establishment RINO dumping on conservative candidates. Tark can go stuff himself. Him and Murkowski, Castle, Crist, and many more RINOs without honor.

    Long live Norton, a lady with honor.

  • mypalfish

    So the NV race is a MUST WIN. Rossi had the lead by 3 in the last Rasmussen poll. I would think that things will start to break one way or another in all the close races this week.

  • rdelbov

    Sue Lowden. I got an email from Suelowden today urging her supporters to early vote for Sharon Angle. Not sure how I got on that email as I did not contribute to her. I got an earlier email from her urging a vote and contribution to Sharon Angle.

    I might add that Tark Jr. sent me a similar email. Tark Jr. has been actively campaigning for Sharon Angle. Honestly these two were my preference before Angle but lets me clear I am with Sharon 100%. I get her emails every day or so and Yes I sent her money after she won the primary.

    Tark Jr. and Sue Lowden-as I said have supported Angle so -in my mind at least-they have been loyal republicans.

    The MSM loves to play up any repbublican who does not support Angle but somehow Tark and Lowden’s support is old news.

  • eburke

    First, the primary’s over so stuff the sore loser bit elsewhere.

    Second, Tarkanian couldn’t even blow Angle out of the water so I’m trying to figure out how he’d be blowing Reid out of the water.

    And third, you, and Danny, have the sore loser bit down pretty good. The measure of a man (or woman) can be ascertained by observing how they handle adversity and setbacks. Jason Allen and Jane Norton, two people who I opposed in their runs, showed an unbelievable amount of dignity and class in defeat.

    On the other hand, your boy Danny joins Mike Castle, Lisa Murkowski, Bob Bennett, and Charlie Crist in the sore loser, I’m going to take my ball and go home and pout category. I wouldn’t vote for Danny again if he ran for Roach Exterminator.

    You, obviously, take after your candidate.

  • izoneguy

    Citing Health Care Law, Boeing Pares Employee Plan

    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=11910726

    The big aircraft maker Boeing Co. says “cost pressures” from the new health care law are part of the reason it’s asking employees to pay more for their medical benefits next year.

    In a letter mailed to employees late last week, Boeing said deductibles and copayments are going up significantly for some 90,000 nonunion workers.

    Hmmmmm, not what Patty Murray promised:

    http://www.pattymurray.com/issues?id=0011

  • IJB
  • IJB

    IOW, she can still lose. I think her real support is probably in the 46-48% range.

    WA is likely to come down to the wire.

    But in no way have either Murray or Boxer put their races away yet…

  • IJB
  • Vegas_Rick

    I went to the first day of early voting on Satrurday at the Galleria Mall in Henderson (suburb of Las Vegas). There was a line of 75-100 people waiting when the polls opened. When I left the mall a couple of hours later, the line was about the same.

    I was stunned at the early turn out. The majority of voters appeared to be between 30-80. All of the conversations I overheard and participated in would indicate this crowd to be heavily in favor of Sharron Angle. Reid would NOT have been welcomed.

    For what it’s worth.

  • smitch61

    Here in MI, sat at a table with the grooms relatives in from Nevada for the weekend. When we got acquainted and comfortable…. you know I had to ask….. Both couples said Angle will win, no doubt about it. They said her only real problem would be Clark county, but there were enough democrats crossing over to make up the difference. The union is heavy there, but will not be able to pull it off this time. They all said that Nevada is conservative in nature except for a very few counties that happen to be large. It sounds a lot like MI. The dem’s would not be able to do it here without Wayne county… Go Sharron!!!

  • Tbone

    on the Republican side due to low voter turnout for the Dems.

  • sundesy

    American voters are smart at times they may be politically lethargic. In tough times when they take a moment to get engaged they realize what cannot solve theirproblems.

    1) Empty slogans “Home & Change”, “Yes we can”
    2) PO’ing TRILLION dollars of tax payers hard earned money
    3) Bailing out GM with tax payer money and transfer the ownership to union thugs (payoff)
    4) Take bond investments by pension funds in Chrysler and transfer the ownership to union thugs (Payoff)
    5) Nationalizing the best health care system on the backs of tax paying Americans
    6) Punishing job creation by taxing the investors ad risk takers
    7) Policies based on global warming humbug (cap & trade)
    8) Political cover/obfuscation by passing useless financial reform
    9) Crying wolf (racism, homophobia, Islamaphobia)
    10) Blaming previous administration incessantly

    So they have decided to drive the dems out of power. Reid is at the top of the list.

  • rdelbov

    tell anyone but early vote turnout in Clark County has so far be much more favorable to the GOP as opposed to 2008. Ditto for Washoe county.

    Lets just let the democrats sleep until 11-02-2010

  • cwilson

    Nevadans appear to be STRONGLY against it, and may feel that Reid’s seniority is all that keeps the place mothballed. Even if Angle is also against it, they might feel she’d be powerless to “stop it” if the Republican Senate wanted it to re-open.

    Now, me, I’d be for it. We need more nuke plants — and to build nuke plants, you need somewhere to store the waste products. Heck, you can build another Yucca Mountain right in my backyard — if you’re sure that our frequent hurricanes won’t be a problem.

  • swami7774

    ….but I’d like your expert’s eye to look at this poll of MA-10. The poll is done by WGBH(the Boston NPR affiliate) and Mass Inc., a group that bills itself as “independent” but is stuffed with elitist libs.
    It has Keating +3 over Perry when leaners are factored in. I consider it suspect simply because of the poll’s source, but it’s the latest poll nonetheless.
    There’s a page inside this link with crosstabs, etc.
    Have at it.

    http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/10359/wgbh-keating-46-perry-43

  • rdelbov

    but hey this is Nevada oriented right?

    Senator Jim DeMint-since he is not too worried about Alvin Greene-is transferring some 1.6 million of his campaign funds to some state parties.

    156K will be going to Nevada –this will help GOTV for Sharon Angle–three cheers for Jim DeMint.

  • http://www.amazon.com/Wade-Arnold/e/B002RHGZAS/ref=ep_sprkl_at_B002RHGZAS?pf_rd_p=479564851&pf_r Wade

    …or get ready for another Minnesota, where she will LOSE unless the Republicans are willing to fight like h3ll for months and months, because votes WILL suddenly appear from nowhere for Dirty Harry. I hope if that happens, she will fight it if it takes YEARS. Make them pay for trying to steal elections.

  • heir2freedom

    Even with all stops pulled and dirty tricks in high gear, Reid is going to join the 14.8 % unemployed in Nevada. Pack your bags, Harry. You’re going down!

    NEW POST:

    CONFIRMED: COLUMNIST EUGENE ROBINSON HATES WHITE CONSERVATIVES
    http://heir2freedom.blogspot.com/2010/10/confirmed-columnist-eugene-robinson.html

  • GreyCloak

    … which is where most of the illegitimate votes are cast. If absentee ballots don’t change the “down-vote” (local councils and State representatives), there’s definately fraud involved.

    Canvass! Pick a small precinct, check the rolls of those who voted, and go to every household to re-record their vote (or absence at the polling place).

    Check signatures …. on voting place rolls and registration cards … when it gets legal, check driver’s license signatures. NOTE: by the time this tactic can get completed, at least another election cycle will have passed.

    VOLUNTEER TO BE A POLLING PLACE JUDGE!

  • GreyCloak

    If you actually CAST your vote, it will be very difficult for someone else to cast it FOR you.

    If you think you can stay home, because “the polls” say your candidate will win, YOU WILL LOSE!

    If you have said ONCE that you are a “patriot,” DO WHAT PATRIOTS DID: Cast a Vote!

    Early voting has kicked off in Nevada, as it has in Texas. THERE IS NO EXCUSE for not finding five minutes to vote in the next two weeks.

    Si se puede, NO HAY EXCUSA para no encontrar cinco minutos para votar en las dos semanas pr?ximas.

    Los Democrats no respetan sus trabajos para hacer ciudadanos, pero ?sta es su ocasi?n de ejercitar la derecha que ganada

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Polling is a probabilistic activity. One poll, one time, by one pollster is of limited utility.

  • GreyCloak

    … but Nevada has received $18 BILLION to develop the place, and both Clinton and Bush thought it safe.

    So … perhaps Nevada’s populace could pay back the investment (that being the honest thing to do) and get rid of it. … Or just “belly-up-to-the-bar” and do a favor for the rest of America (and take all the extra jobs that will be created, plus the next $70 billion that some estimate may be spent.).

    Nevada gambles. The SURE thing is that Yucca Mountain will employ many Nevadans, guaranty the state an income for the next thousand years, and be independent of the economy.

    Where’s the problem?

  • GreyCloak

    Count on nothing, vote!

  • http://itsonlywords55.wordpress.com itsonlywords

    Since there will only be two candidates on the ballot, 50% is the magic number required to win, unless, of course, Clint Didier’s more fanatical supporters elect to write him in. In which case they would prove themselves to be just the kind of sore losers being discussed here. So the poor sportsmanship isn’t just coming from the “RINO” side of the party.

  • joanb36

    Arrogant, elitist, doing business behind closed doors in the dark of night with Obama and Pelosi. Shoved, bought, stole, arm twisted congressman (no spines) to get the government controlled health care ram rodded down our throats! WHY would ANYONE want this henchman for a representative? He’s been there too long. Embedded and comfortable. Needs to go. The longer they remain, they more corrupt they become. Pockets filling with our tax money while they look down their noses at their constituents! Go green! !!!
    Recycle Harry!

    Go Sharon!!!

  • Libertarian Republican

    I made a statement of opinion. And I think running a bible thumper in Sin City being a bad idea is a fact.

    There now I’ve given you a reason to flame me :-)

    Have a Coke and a smile for goodness sake LOL.

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