and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

His job approval has stayed under 50% all along, and in 41 polls of the race going back to last December, he hit 50% in exactly ONE – right after the primary and all the legacy media coverage dumping on Angle as “extreme.”

Angle merely had to demonstrate that she isn’t some nut and the race should be hers to lose. She sealed the deal with the debate. I doubt the full effect of that event – and the media coverage of it – has yet been factored in.

As for the third-party candidates and “None of these” option, in close races voters may express preferences to a pollster, but if they actually vote reality usually returns and they choose between the major choices, the ones with chances to win.

This will also favor Angle, as it is difficult to imagine why anyone who might possibly support Reid under any circumstances isn’t already doing so.

…this election — or any other.

LaborUnionReport wrote a really good post on this matter about a week ago.

in your analysis. Let me two points or rather two comments.

1. Third party candidates and “None of the above” have nearly disappeared in the polls. I remember one poll where over 10% either did NOTA or third party. Down to 3%–Reid/Angle in the premier senate election of 2010.

2. Angle is +8% ahead with indies-or so I have heard-in this poll. That’s an edge-not a huge edge but it accounts for a substantial portion of this narrow edge.

Finally two more points about what we have already seen in 2010 in Nevada

1. GOP primary turnout topped democratic turnout despite a registration edge on the other side. The GOP even set a mid turnout record in Nevada. Is that a hint or a picture of what will happen on 11-02-2010.

2. Harry Reid has already faced the voters once as he was renominated this year. In a contest with NOTA and several no name guys Reid just barely topped 75%, That’s in the democratic primary now–76% is a weak showing.

I think Angle wins and maybe by several more % then this poll.

by 10, considering Nevada’s economic problems alone, and Harry Reid’s contribution to them. Add to that Harry’s negatives – mendacity, arrogance, greed, an elitist sense of entitilement, and a complete lack of physical appeal (he’s about as sexy as a bunion) – and it’s difficult to imagine ANYONE voting for him voluntarily. In short, the guy is an embarrassment. Is there something fundamentally wrong with the voters of Nevada?

means that you believe that he will split those last few undecided percentage points overwhelmingly in his favor, at least 70/30. I just don’t see that happening in a GOP wave year with a 10+ point Republican victory expected in the governor’s race.

The debate was Reid’s last chance, and he could not effectively make Angle look like the extremist he tried to portray her as in his ads. I think he’s toast.

…but I really feel Tarkanian would be blowing Reid out of the water right now. A missed opportunity…

So the NV race is a MUST WIN. Rossi had the lead by 3 in the last Rasmussen poll. I would think that things will start to break one way or another in all the close races this week.

Sue Lowden. I got an email from Suelowden today urging her supporters to early vote for Sharon Angle. Not sure how I got on that email as I did not contribute to her. I got an earlier email from her urging a vote and contribution to Sharon Angle.

I might add that Tark Jr. sent me a similar email. Tark Jr. has been actively campaigning for Sharon Angle. Honestly these two were my preference before Angle but lets me clear I am with Sharon 100%. I get her emails every day or so and Yes I sent her money after she won the primary.

Tark Jr. and Sue Lowden-as I said have supported Angle so -in my mind at least-they have been loyal republicans.

The MSM loves to play up any repbublican who does not support Angle but somehow Tark and Lowden’s support is old news.

I went to the first day of early voting on Satrurday at the Galleria Mall in Henderson (suburb of Las Vegas). There was a line of 75-100 people waiting when the polls opened. When I left the mall a couple of hours later, the line was about the same.

I was stunned at the early turn out. The majority of voters appeared to be between 30-80. All of the conversations I overheard and participated in would indicate this crowd to be heavily in favor of Sharron Angle. Reid would NOT have been welcomed.

For what it’s worth.

Here in MI, sat at a table with the grooms relatives in from Nevada for the weekend. When we got acquainted and comfortable…. you know I had to ask….. Both couples said Angle will win, no doubt about it. They said her only real problem would be Clark county, but there were enough democrats crossing over to make up the difference. The union is heavy there, but will not be able to pull it off this time. They all said that Nevada is conservative in nature except for a very few counties that happen to be large. It sounds a lot like MI. The dem’s would not be able to do it here without Wayne county… Go Sharron!!!

on the Republican side due to low voter turnout for the Dems.

American voters are smart at times they may be politically lethargic. In tough times when they take a moment to get engaged they realize what cannot solve theirproblems.

1) Empty slogans “Home & Change”, “Yes we can”
2) PO’ing TRILLION dollars of tax payers hard earned money
3) Bailing out GM with tax payer money and transfer the ownership to union thugs (payoff)
4) Take bond investments by pension funds in Chrysler and transfer the ownership to union thugs (Payoff)
5) Nationalizing the best health care system on the backs of tax paying Americans
6) Punishing job creation by taxing the investors ad risk takers
7) Policies based on global warming humbug (cap & trade)
Political cover/obfuscation by passing useless financial reform
9) Crying wolf (racism, homophobia, Islamaphobia)
10) Blaming previous administration incessantly

So they have decided to drive the dems out of power. Reid is at the top of the list.

….but I’d like your expert’s eye to look at this poll of MA-10. The poll is done by WGBH(the Boston NPR affiliate) and Mass Inc., a group that bills itself as “independent” but is stuffed with elitist libs.
It has Keating +3 over Perry when leaners are factored in. I consider it suspect simply because of the poll’s source, but it’s the latest poll nonetheless.
There’s a page inside this link with crosstabs, etc.
Have at it.

http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/10359/wgbh-keating-46-perry-43

but hey this is Nevada oriented right?

Senator Jim DeMint-since he is not too worried about Alvin Greene-is transferring some 1.6 million of his campaign funds to some state parties.

156K will be going to Nevada –this will help GOTV for Sharon Angle–three cheers for Jim DeMint.

…or get ready for another Minnesota, where she will LOSE unless the Republicans are willing to fight like h3ll for months and months, because votes WILL suddenly appear from nowhere for Dirty Harry. I hope if that happens, she will fight it if it takes YEARS. Make them pay for trying to steal elections.

Even with all stops pulled and dirty tricks in high gear, Reid is going to join the 14.8 % unemployed in Nevada. Pack your bags, Harry. You’re going down!

NEW POST:

CONFIRMED: COLUMNIST EUGENE ROBINSON HATES WHITE CONSERVATIVES
http://heir2freedom.blogspot.com/2010/10/confirmed-columnist-eugene-robinson.html

Arrogant, elitist, doing business behind closed doors in the dark of night with Obama and Pelosi. Shoved, bought, stole, arm twisted congressman (no spines) to get the government controlled health care ram rodded down our throats! WHY would ANYONE want this henchman for a representative? He’s been there too long. Embedded and comfortable. Needs to go. The longer they remain, they more corrupt they become. Pockets filling with our tax money while they look down their noses at their constituents! Go green! !!!
Recycle Harry!

Go Sharon!!!