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SD-AL and my dignity at risk

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 22nd, 2010 at 03:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Sandlin Noem

I once said that Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was done. Finished. Had no chance of winning the South Dakota at-large House seat. Was pining for the fjords. Hers was a dead candidacy. She then promptly tied up the race in the polling.

I already have enough egg on my face that I’m genuinely hoping polls like this one hold up, with Republican Kristi Noem ahead, so I can escape without complete embarrassment.

Noem 49 – Herseth Sandlin 44, MoE 4.5. That’s the Rasmussen result today. That has me breathing easier, but it’s still definitely making me want to put my head in the sand after calling this race over.

It just goes to show that big shifts in a race are possible and can come when they are least expected. Polling measures more than just Likely Voter screens, partisan makeups, and all these other stats and crosstabs that we argue back and forth all day about. Sometimes, a cigar’s just a cigar.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • davidabippus

    I am feeling pretty confident about this one. Noem was ahead for quite a while and then SHS resorted to mudslinging and personal attacks, which did seem to close the gap a bit and even put her slightly ahead for a short time. Noem stayed in and fought back and is doing well. She has had several solid interview performances recently on Hannity’s show and some others and proven herself to be a sound candidate and a solid conservative. I am also hoping that SHS’s recent endorsement from Planned Parenthood will work against her as well as she tries to come across as a moderate and so forth, but is really just a typical liberal pretending to be something that she is not. Go Krisit!

  • nepanyrush

    She presents herself as a independent and voted against the TARP bailout, health-care reform and the cap-and-trade energy bill. Sure, she probably did so because it is an election year and she is an entrenched establishment candidate. And Noem is a terrific candidate , a rancher who is intelligent, personable, and anything but the lawyer-type that Herseth Sandlin is (not to mention Herseth Sandlin is married to a Congressman with some ethical problems). But Herseth Sandlin has been winning with 70% of the vote in the past and her family is a long-time political family (including Governor), I would be curious why you thought this one was over.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • rdelbov

    push on Kristi’s speeding tickets seemed to hurt plus Sandlin and others did a big ad push.

    I think Kristi has survived the nasty attacks and will win.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    South Dakota is now on the list of potential retirement places. Residing there would provide a welcome visual change from wicked-witch-of-the-west, Nita Lowey.

    And when did you ever have egg on your face???

  • earlgrey

    Inside the beltway pundit are never concerned about being wrong. I think you have another 500 bad predictions before you need to worry about cleaning egg off your face.

    Unless you are marketing yourself as a fortune teller?

  • deano64

    many voters more than a persons past speeding violations. LOL.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s what made Noem fall back a while.

  • rblack198

    Sadlin won her seat from the former R gov (Janklow?) who held it and lost after a traffic accidcent resulted in the death of, if I recall, a motorcyclist. The congressman ran a stop sign I think and had a history of not great driving. This is what I believe they are grasping at. Some history, but quite a stretch to paint her with the same brush.

  • IJB

    SHS has been under 45% (OK, *46%*…) in all but two polls since March – that always indicated she was a likely loser.

    Yes, SHS was never in quite as bad shape as Pomeroy in ND-AL, but she was always almost as bad off.

    All that happened is that that early Sept. ad blitz knocked Noem’s numbers down some. But I was never convinced that SHS had moved much above 45% even during that period.

    Anyway, you were right the first time – based on *her* own numbers in ever poll since March, SHS is *done*.

    P.S. RCP just moved this race back into the “Lean Republican” category as well. :)

  • ktsub

    Neil, with the dramatic increase of early voting, how much reliability should we have in polling going forward. I ask this, with races getting tight, specifically in PA, when early voting has been ongoing.

    Doesn’t the polling become highly tilted, when a significant block of voters have cast ballots?

  • seattlebruce

    “and then SHS resorted to mudslinging and personal attacks,”

    Great to know the RATs can contribute so greatly to the debate in the public square.

  • barry915barry

    of the reason. She has 27 traffic citations over the last 21 years. The former congressman Janklow was convicted of manslaughter (involuntary?) in regards to the traffic crash and got 100days. The dems had nothing else here, so they gave this a shot. Barry.

  • neomom

    But have you got anything on NC-07?

    Incumbent McIntyre started the rumor about Pelosi not running for speaker. Can Pantano pull this off?

  • barry915barry

    McIntyre vs. Patano
    Patano (R) 46%
    McIntyre (D) 45% SurveyUSA 9/24-9/26 450 RV

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m honestly ignoring per-seat House polling now. I only hit this one because of my earlier comments :)

  • Adjoran

    what with the small samples, high MOEs, lack of information, and often polling firms no one ever heard of.

    Plus, take that Survey USA poll of NC-7: what good is polling registered voters this close to the election?

  • nvrepub

    nt

  • IJB

    I’m one of the first people that will warn people not to put too much stock into House district polling, especially if attention isn’t carefully paid to the underlying numbers, what the sample is (e.g. RV vs LV), the methodology, etc.

    But I’d rather have some data, even a Registered Voter poll (provided it’s clear up front that that’s what the sample is) of a district like NC-07 than nothing.

    I don’t blame Neil or any other electoral analyst for ignoring them. But, personally? I’d rather have them then have no info at all… ;)

  • wonkish1

    I’m pretty sure that historically mason dixon has been the best, but they don’t do many polls. I think it has to with cost. I’m pretty sure Rasmussen’s brute force registration mapping system(if I understand it correctly) is a lot cheaper than Mason Dixons stratafied sampling system. I think both styles should be close.

    I’m pretty sure that unlike rasmussen, mason dixon’s primary business is not politics but doing polling for corporations planning on marketing campaigns. So for that reason they have developed a slightly more accurate, but substantially more costly model.