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Two kinds of polling in California

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 25th, 2010 at 12:30 PM  | 

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Fiorina Boxer

As always I give the note that any analysis I do of the California Senate race carries an unusual risk of bias because I live here and I have a strong emotional attachment to the outcome.

That said, I’m beginning to notice a pattern in the polling between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina that suggests serious, late-breaking movement in favor of the Republican. I see it in the way the polls are moving with their methodologies.

To demonstrate what I mean, I will take the most recent polls from Real Clear Politics and sort them by the length of time they were in the field:

Poll Duration Lead
Fox/POR 1 day D+4
Rasmussen 1 day D+2
Wilson 2 days R+3
Reuters/Ipsos 3 days D+1
SurveyUSA 4 days D+2
LAT/USC 8 days D+8
PPIC 8 days D+8

As we can see, the two pollsters that take their sweet times, running around over a week asking their questions, are the ones showing the large Boxer leads. Everyone else shows it a tight, competitive race.

And that, to me, suggests that polls starting earlier are missing some of the impact of the barrage of new ads from Carly Fiorina, which appear to be making the race so close.

From Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • http://janicecantore.com Janice Cantore

    The senate race aside, I’ve lived here all my life and cannot believe people here will vote for Moonbeam after how horrible a govenor he was before. You don’t even have to look back that far, just look at the mess Oakland is and think Moonbeam, Yet, Brown is crushing Witman.
    As for Boxer here is another head scratcher, she has done nothing in 28 years but screw up the central valley beyond belief. For one month all I have heard are Boxer attacks adds, (the usual Carly will make abortion illegal stuff besides the fact that she’s evil and shipped millions of jobs out of the country) Carly has done nothing to counter, even conservative friends think Carly is a horrible person now. I’m glad you’re optimistic and I will keep trying but there is a stupid barrier in this state that is too thick to be breached.

  • hoosierdad

    I’m hoping that as the Eastern time zone polls close, and as calls are made showing a sizable GOP landslide, Democrat turnout will be depressed in the west, while the polls are still open. I know this was quasi-controversial in 1980 when Carter conceded the election even before the polls closed out west, diminishing Democrat turnout. Could it happen again?

  • SIConservative

    But polls taken over a few days tend to be more accurate because Republicans are more likely to be out later in the week, while Democrats are more likely to be out earlier in the week. When polls are taken either over just a day or two or over a long enough period that some but not all days are repeated, questions about the impact of that phenomenon pop up.

  • securitymom

    Neil, I just looked at CA-11 and RCP has it listed as leaning R. That gives me hope that we are starting to move in the right direction.

    Additionally, I think people are starting to tune out ads. We had company this weekend who rarely votes, but will be voting this election. While he is not very excited about any canidate, he is a vote that no one is seeing. I’m hoping there are more of those.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Whitman seems to be having some trouble, because I think she peaked to soon and used up too many attacks, too quickly.

    But Fiorina is in position where she can win.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The ads matter.

  • SIConservative

    I think it’d be much more significant, though, if the stories of Republican advantages in early voting got more play before Election Day.

  • Coop

    The NRSC just committed another $3 million to this race. Boxer responded with a $4 million commitment. GOP power players state their daily internal polls show Fiorina down by only a point.

    Make no mistake. Both sides think this race is up for grabs.

  • securitymom
  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But a lot of voters only started paying attention this month, and to them the race is still new and fresh.

  • mkozikowski

    I would place money that if the exit polls show a huge Republican/Conservative turnout, the media will be very quiet.
    I am sure they will stand behind the idea that they don’t want to affect the voting outcome based on erroneous polling data.

  • victrola

    I’d much rather win the Senate race than the Governor’s. No matter who wins for Governor, the state is firmly in control of leftist radicals and is in a death spiral.

  • SIConservative

    Normally I’d agree, but this is a redistricting election. If we don’t have the governor to veto the district maps, we’ll be hammered for the next decade in CA’s Congressional races. Of course it’s a moot point if they pass the redistricting initiative, but they haven’t done so yet.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Your comment will be inoperative after November.

  • distantvoter

    The pension mess is so bad that some really, really unpopular things are going to have to happen in the next four years. If the Democrats are in control of everything when the house of cards comes crashing down, it might destroy their hold on California for a long, long time.

    So while I’d rather see Whitman win, I wonder if it might be for the best if Brown becomes the fall guy for the huge mess that’s coming….

  • zipbags

    The only positive of those polls showing both Brown & Boxer with 12pt leads. Is that it might cause some dem voters to think that since its not close…they don’t have to go vote.

    I just cannot understand California. Yes, I know its a blue state. But, the Dems (besides RINO Arnold) have run the state for the past decade or longer. And the state is in such horrible shape. Yet, they are voting for a guy who has a record of putting the state and municipality into even worse shape. And even worse just said the other day that California has enough wealth that it should be spread around to everyone. What?!?

  • JoeG

    I live in a district that is on the bubble (OR-5) and share a TV market with one where the dems only gave up recently (WA-3). Throw in a contested governor’s race and we have a “complete” add buy where there are no other commercials on TV or radio. This has been going on a month now.

    The only way anyone couldn’t have noticed is if they don’t listen to radio or watch TV.

  • JoeG

    The state is under complete control of the liberals. You’d think they’d be happy to stay there – but no, they flee to all of the surrounding states to screw them up too.

  • treeofliberty

    we need California or say hello to um, Senate Majority Leader Schumer ? (shudder) with DE and CT looking very tough right now we need to run on the table out west to have any chance.

    My gut tells me the race is close and if it’s close, it’s winnable for the Republican especially this year.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • rdelbov

    1. The Central valley brownout is a real for Boxer.

    2. I think its hard to understand that Boxer only got 76% of the vote in the democratic primary–yet many polls show her getting +90% of the democratic. Really now? In the only real vote this year she got 76%.

    3. Perhaps the mad as heck and I need to protest somthing–perhaps the senate race is it.

  • joayn

    The way I look at it is if you leave something out there long enough, you’ll probably get the results you want. Plus they didn’t stick with landlines only but included cell phones. Do any other pollsters use cell phones?

    Also, they over sampled Latino voters as you can see below, and I must say I am SHOCKED at the results! And I absolutely think they are delusional about Independents.

    In the Calbuzz (left leaners) article it cites the PPIC poll as support for the LAT/USC poll and doesn’t mention any of the polls you cite above for a fair analysis (again, I’m SHOCKED). The article is interesting only in that it reveals their delusions beautifully. Desperate times call for desperate measures, I guess.

    “The Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner and the Republican firm American Viewpoint conducted the poll for the Los Angeles Times and the USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, calling landlines and cellphones Oct. 13-20. A random sample of 1,501 California registered voters were called, including an oversample of Latino respondents for a total of 460 Latino interviews. The survey identified 922 likely voters for whom the margin of error is +/- 3.2%. The margin of error for Latinos is +/- 4.6%.”

    http://www.calbuzz.com/2010/10/12468/

    In order to depress the opposition, I really do think we’ll be seeing more of these types of polls with these kinds of results this week. Also, the meme of the Democrats surging will also abound.

    Ain’t gonna work, tho. Be the wave.

  • zipbags

    It showed Boxer +8 and Brown +12

    http://www.gqrr.com/articles/2536/6111_USC-LA%20Times%20Poll%20-%20Results%2010.24.pdf

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Boxer +8, that’s in my table, good. We’re on the same page then.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    SUSA is also working on Cell Phone methodology.

  • joayn

    Except we think if Brown wins, his economic and “green” philosophies will finally (you would think!) kill the liberals off. What California lefties want, they should get.

    And I must say that California Democrat voters are absolutely the stupidest people on earth and are living proof that the dumbing down education policies are alive and well here.

    California is very much like the Dems in Congress. If Brown takes this, the end is inevitable.

    That said, we also think Whitman and Fiorina can win.

  • IJB
  • Adjoran

    So this poll takes 1501 registered voters, and finds among them 922 likely voters . . . does anyone really think California will have over 61% turnout in a midterm election?

  • victrola

    Whoever is Governor of California will be a spectacular failure, absolutely no doubt about that. The state is currently ungovernable. I would have preferred had Schwarzenegger lost rather than have a Republican at the helm of such a disaster.

    The problem with California is not just the politicians, it’s the voters. They still don’t get it, and most of the people with any common sense and conservative leanings got out of Dodge.

    I would prefer it to invest in greener pastures.

  • Return to Revolution

    I think folks will come out even if they are certain of a win. They will want to participate in what will be an historical election.

  • baserunr

    indicate any oversampling of the Dem electorate? In your opinion, does their projected voter makeup represent reality at all? I don’t see Dems turning out in numbers equivalent to 2008 anywhere in the country, and I think history largely bears that out. I’m just wondering if some of the pollsters see it differently.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The PPIC and LA Times/USC/GQR LV screens may be a bit loose in my view.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Consider the people who, every four years, decide on election day who to vote for for President.

  • deano64

    in a Presidential election either let alone a midterm.

  • swami7774

    It’s from the Boston Globe/U. of New Hampshire, so have the salt shaker ready.
    It’s the second poll on MA-10 to come out in a week. The previous one showed Perry +1(w/out leaners), or Keating +3(w/leaners.)
    This one has Keating +4, but it has a staggering 23% undecided. I live in the 10th and I don;’t know what to make of it, other than to remember that it’s from the same pollster that had Coakley +15 9 days before Brown beat her.
    What do you think?

    http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/10477/boston-globeunh-keating-37-perry-33-lewis-3-sheets-2

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    One pollster, one poll, one time is not enough data to go out on any limbs.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s just not governable as a progressive like Arnie or Moonbeam.

  • IJB

    And, the problem is, there’s no real “magic bullet” solution to this either.

    Part of the problem is that there are too many elected cabinet offices (which the voters will *never* get rid of having), and part of the problem is how Initiative/Referenda are handled (note: I’m a *big* proponent of Initiative/Referenda, but there are definitely some major structural problems with them that need to be addressed). And part of it is the super-majority requirement for budgeting.

    Basically, the CA Constitution is now a patchwork quilt of nonsense that frankly should be junked, and rewritten from scratch.

    Right now, not only do I not see that happening, I don’t even see a mechanism to *getting* that to happen (short of the actual overthrow of the state government, which will also never happen!).

    I wish I had some easy answers for “fixing” CA… :|

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Line. Item. Veto.

  • eastbaylarry

    Most ads that get recorded are never viewed.

    I mention this because I find I must time-shift most of the TV I watch and just naturally fast-forward through commercials.

  • Robert Allen Leeper

    RCP’s projected Average Gain has gone from 55 to 61 over the past 7 days and over the past 14 days from 51.5. Yet we seem to keep hearing that senate races in KY, PA, WA, CO are less GOP than a couple of weeks ago. RCP has made 5 status changes over the last 2 weeks, 4 to 1 in the dem direction.

    I don’t have any idea what could account for this, if not a coincidence of specific factors in a small number of races.

    Carly may pull it out – Boxer is still under 50% and leads by only 2. I have not heard anyone speculate whether the national enthusiasm gap extends to CA.

  • IJB

    When the Governor can’t furlough state workers because both the AG and the *Controller* can sue the Governor to stop him from furloughing, we have a governance problem.

  • geemen73

    I having grown up in New york and moved to New Jersey about 10 years ago thought the same about the voters in this region, how can they be so stupid they all complain about the high taxes and the state on the verge of bankruptcy but they continue to by the Democrat snake oil..Our last governor was a total puppet, and clueless, The climate was right and we got christie elected in a liberal state, and hes pulled no punches with anyone, hes cut everything across the board and has the cahoonies to take on the teachers union and government workers union to start making these people contribute towards their health care, the message resonates with the people here, even a guy I work with who basically hates all politicians especially Republican ones Loves Christie wants him to run for president.. So to you people out in California sit down and think are you tired of a bankrupt state that is controlled by the State and teachers union, while they make out like bandits you sit and scratch your head to figure out which bill is going to be paid and which one isnt. MAN UP California get rid of the elitist especially “call me senator” Ive worked hard screwing the people of California and the rest of the country to get this title.. MAN GUYS and GALS GO VOTE!

  • acat

    Not sure if anyone’s analyzed it, but .. around here, we don’t watch news because it’s no longer ‘timely’. (and, in my case at least, I spend too much time correcting the idiot on the tube…)

    Mew

    (last broadcast commercial I watched was an ASPCA piece .. and that was because I was curious about who it was for… )

  • acat

    Some of these polling shops seem to be doing their sadistical best to skew Dem…

    Mew

  • Scope

    that are included in their “averaging” for the House seats. Today I looked into some of the polling outfits who are reporting on some House seats. They are polling people who are in the bag for the Democrats. For example, look at who is polling for the MI-01 Benishek/McAdams race, and, look at who is reporting for the Frank/Bielat race. There have been almost none of the big polling outfits such as Rassmussen, Gallup etc that are polling many house races. The Democrats are desperate to show them close, or, in the running. If the pols show them as “close”, the easier it is for them to cheat. I suspect that the Senate race polls are doing the same thing. Stop looking at RCP polls. RCP is not in it to win it, and, they hide behind “averages.”

  • bluerose75

    Robert I apologize but you need to learn how to read polls and understand them. The fact that PPP created this doubt continues to amaze me. KY is still showing Repub in RCP and PA is now showing Repub again…CO is still showing Buck and WA has never shown Rossi in the lead. Now you ponder about why are the races tightening? Well either you have been in a sound proof chamber are just out of touch.

    Here is an idea….open the races and look at the tightening….see which poll shows all the tightening….PPP..they have for last 3 weeks. When you take PPP out of the mix…the races would not be close. PPP is a DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER who even RCP identifies as (D). Now why would that race tighten…HMMMM…Oversampling Democrats…Undersampling Republicans and Independents….you think that may be a start??? Look at their samples Rob and you will see their Likely Voters and breakdowns are so far fetched you could not find with a Telescope. PPP is releasing a series of polls in the last week again to cause doubt in people like you who seem to think PPP is a legitimate organization. Which it is not!!

    PPP shows Manchin up by 6 mysteriously after Rasmussen has Raese by 7,,,,hmmmm…odd hey? Rasmussen is even oversampling DEMS…can you imagine PPP??? This is in WV. The point is PPP should not be even used anymore. It is the most bias firm out there but they are creating a narrative that the Senate Races are tightening. Which makes people like you nervous and DEMS HAPPY!! See how it works!!

    PPP will do this until Friday after which the polls to me are irrelevant. The reason Robert the House has stayed so positive…NO PPP polling….the House is too big and PPP is focused on certain races that they are looking to demoralize Republicans and Independents. Do a google search on the man that runs PPP and you will see what I mean. It is no accident that RCP now places that (D) after PPP. In 2008 the (D) never appeared for PPP.

    If the pollsters really wanted to match polls with turnout and accurate numbers many of these races would not be as close as they are showing to be. But they add drama and intrigue and for many like you uncertainty.

    Dick Morris said it and I totally believe it…The Republican totals will be anywhere from 3-5 percent (if not more) greater than any poll out there today!! He is a Master at reading polls.

    There may be others like PPP (pollster of DailyKos) that want to influence the election. People need to see them for what they are. It is not accident the House looks so much better….less bias polls from Left Wing Outfits!!

  • redtillimdead

    May actually benefit us this year. Fiorina has invested a lot in a very strong GOTV campaign (she outperformed the polls in the primary by around 10 pts). Whitman has invested over 20 million in an amazing GOTV effort, better than any of us have seen before. I think, honestly, Whitman could be down by 5 in the polls on election day and still win by 1 or 2%. She outperformed her primary polls by about 20%. The CA GOP has invested in a very strong GOTV effort, stronger than they have in the past. The party has over 90 field offices around the state, with 37k volunteers, not including paid staff, and the thousands of volunteers of Whitman, Fiorina, and the other statewide and congressional candidates.

  • redtillimdead

    May actually benefit us this year. Fiorina has invested a lot in a very strong GOTV campaign (she outperformed the polls in the primary by around 10 pts). Whitman has invested over 20 million in an amazing GOTV effort, better than any of us have seen before. I think, honestly, Whitman could be down by 5 in the polls on election day and still win by 1 or 2%. She outperformed her primary polls by about 20%. The CA GOP has invested in a very strong GOTV effort, stronger than they have in the past. The party has over 90 field offices around the state, with 37k volunteers, not including paid staff, and the thousands of volunteers of Whitman, Fiorina, and the other statewide and congressional candidates. Also, Dems have not invested much in GOTV. They are relying entirely on the unions. We saw how well that worked out for them last year in NJ…

  • redtillimdead

    Has said it was a crap poll. They are very worried. When they asked DiFi about Boxer’s campaign, her simple response was “bad”

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • bluerose75

    Ads matter only to a point. How many ads do you see that you cannot remember??? Some ads have a greater impact then others but very few can totally sway an election. Grayson in FL screwed himself with the Taliban Dan ad but many were suspicious of him in the first place. Ads that compliment a coherent and well thought out message and plan are the most effective, Negative ads work for a spell at least until they are turned around on the accuser!!

    But many voters Neil change channels, turn off radios and could care less about ads. Those are the silents and those are the under polled. Those are the ones where substance matters. Not cheesy ads!!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Time and again it’s been demonstrated they work. The polls in CA are unmistakably moving in response to the Fiorina ad campaign.

  • bluerose75

    The polls are moving because Barbara Boxer is a lousy Senator. Just living each day in CA will tell you that! You know you live there, Carly’s ads highlight that but it is the reality of economic climate that will defeat Boxer.

  • SIConservative

    I don’t think polling on initiatives is as reliable as normal polling. I don’t have stats to prove my point, but if you have stats to prove me wrong, please share them. I am fully ready to be proven wrong. I’m inclined to think, though, that the default vote on initiatives is “No”, especially when there are several on the ballot, and that a “Yes” vote requires a stellar campaign and some luck on election day to win. It’s kind of a silly argument here at this point anyway, since obviously we all hope to win both. My point, though, is that we shouldn’t bank on victory.

  • Robert Allen Leeper