« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Final notes on the California Senate race

Carly Fiorina

I’ve obtained a few documents and one link which really tell us where we are in California right now. Per the polling, which has remarkably projected in California little or no TEA party/Republican/Independent/conservative backlash at all, I still see Carly having a one third shot to win this, and if we saw polling which actually demonstrated a partisan enthusiasm gap, that number would have been much higher.

Because seriously, who or what is supposed to be motivating Democrats in California this year? Moonbeam Brown, who failed last time around? Babs Boxer, who couldn’t even get the Chronicle’s endorsement? Or maybe the high unemployment is the ticket for them? Get real.

Marty Wilson, the Carly for California Campaign Manager, has made more key points about the race, in a memo to “Interested Parties” I got a hold of. Third parties do better in California than other states. They don’t do well, but they pull in a few points, and the major polls ignore them. He’s also pointed out that Proposition 19 (Cannabis legalization) was supposed to help Democrats, but it’s likely to fail now. He predicts that Fiorina beats Boxer by three.

I don’t even know what a California recount would be like, but we might see one if it’s closer than that.

Further, I have the infamous Maxine Waters Sample Ballot for this year. I won’t upload it because I don’t want to expose the name of the person who sent it in. But Babs Boxer gets the endorsement from Citizens for Waters, but notably her name has an asterisk beside it. According to the back page of the Sample Ballot, “Appearance is paid for and authorized by each candidate and ballot measure which is designated by an *.” So Boxer has funneled yet more money to the corrupt Waters. Wow. Big Government has more on this story.

I’m nervous going into tomorrow, but I’m also hopeful. I’ve made sure people I know who will vote for Fiorina are voting. Every vote just might count this year. Don’t forget to vote, don’t forget to get your friends and family to vote. You’ll regret it if we have to recount. Remember Florida?

Get Alerts

COMMENTS

  • Section9

    I live in Florida. Cali is my home state. I could not believe that voters wold return Boxer or Brown, but there you have it.

    I believe Carly can and will win this thing, but the Megster campaign just breaks one’s heart. Everything a Republican campaign could do wrong, she appears to be doing.

    160 million dollars. My God.

    Thank God for Fiorina. She fights.

  • proudmarinemom

    has it in the bag until I hear an official announcement as such.

    This is uncharted territory we are entering tomorrow. What will happen tomorrow has never happened before in the history of this Nation. We cannot point to any other results and conclude that they foretell the reults of the earthquake that is coming (sorry to use that term in a thread about California, but that describes the Great Election of 2010.)

    Keep your chin up. If you can get down on your knees and humble yourself to ask for God’s help, do so. But remember, God does not take sides, we just try to take His.

    He is present, He hears us and He is an AWESOME God.

  • america1st

    come through for you and the Republic in general, Neil. The last thing this nation needs are any of these mush brains in positions requiring them to make decisions more intellectually demanding than whether to have skim or whole milk in their latte.

  • froster

    What part of the state do you live in Neil? I’ve been working in the LA County suburbs on getting the vote out and there are a lot of people (who like Feinstein) who are voting Brown/Fiorina, mainly because of Boxer’s abrasive liberal personality.

    I’d say Fiorina needs to win in the upwards of 60% in the Central Valley, and needs a decent victory in the Inland Empire. Boxer will win SF and the East Bay, and will win parts of LA.

    The trend is clearly with Fiorina; polls show a 3-5 Boxer race instead of a 8-9 Boxer race as we had been seeing.

    I do wonder about Prop 19. I would think CA would have a bigger enthusiasm gaps than most states (Why would a younger voter want to vote for someone who was governor 40 years ago?)

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

    Unlike most elections where the role that initiatives play (if any) is when they deal with issues of enough general interest that can pull in independents and usual non-voters – the measures this time are highly polarizing and will primarily help stir up the base/partisan voters, while leaving the squishes largely unmoved.

    Such an effort works to the disadvantage of Republicans in CA because 1) The numeric registration advance indicates that such a polarization/stirring up will favor the Democrats – especially in a wave election where 2) the Republican base is already fired up, and the Democrats in general are dealing with a discouraged base.

    This on top of the closeness of the major races and the prospect or California resisting the wave may generating some enthusiasm as well among the base.

    It remains to be seen, of course, how this will affect the final results.

  • http://www.gmsplace.com/ civil_truth

    2nd paragraph, the first sentence was trying to say that since Democrats have more registered voters than Republicans, as a first- order process, there would be more base to stir up, numerically speacking.

    2nd-order process may mitigate this advantage, however, depending for instance on the relative percentages among registered voters between base voters versus squishy voters – and how those percentages compare between the two parties.

  • jimbo51

    As an ex-CA, I know there’s a LOT of enthusiasm to retire Boxer. If the polls aren’t factoring it in, there’s hope. To quote Jesse Jackson, “Let’s keep hope alive” that you remaining Californians can bring Carly and Meg across finish line.. as well as a lot of other R’s in Senate and Assembly. Otherwise, CA is doomed!

  • reggie1

    Screw the “driving the car” analogy. California is a much better example.

    For it is there that Pelosi/Reid/Obama policies are on full display, for a generation:

    Freebies for illegals,
    Sanctuary cities,
    Skyrocketing tax rates,
    $357m school that doesn’t work,
    Gang violence,
    etc, etc.

  • Tbone

    it is barren of Boxer or Brown signs.

    I think you can’t ignore the historic generic Congressional preference for Republicans. I think it show up and beats Boxer. Meg has a problem because Brown has been running as a hardball fiscal conservative.

  • smitch61

    and say a prayer tonight for you. I have contracted my relatives in CA and they are ready. If you look at it logically, there is no reason Carly should lose. She is most definitely the better candidate and Boxer is well…… Boxer. Some people in CA would have to be full blown idiots not to see it.

    I will say one thing that is strange to me… I live in Michigan, I have many relatives in CA and have been their whole lives. I am completely surprised at their disinterest in politics. They usually contact me for political advice… seriously… and I do not even live there. My relatives are highly educated individuals with absolutely no interest in politics.. it is so sad.

  • congressworksforus

    It wasn’t all on TV and Radio ads.

    G.O.T.V.

    Doubt me? Look at the landslide Whitman won by in the primary, and ask “hmm, how did she do that?”

    G.O.T.V.

    Do not be surprised if both Whitman and Fiorina win handily.

  • usedtobelib

    I live in CA, the Bay Area, am a retired public school teacher.

    Unless one lives in this state and experiences the political season, one probably has a hard time envisioning that tv ads (radio to a lesser degree), mean everything, especially now that newspapers are dead. There is no such thing as the people meeting a candidate for a state-wide office. It is in this area that Whitman and Fiorina have been ineffective, which is so sad considering how easy it would have been to paint Boxer and Brown as the parasitic lifetime pols they are.

    I worried during the primary season that Meg Whitman’s blanketing of tv and radio ads would backfire against her in the general. On the one hand, those ads (you can’t believe how often they played) served to introduce her to the public. On the other hand, I knew that there’d be a skepticism about a woman so wealthy she was financing her own campaign because 1) the American public treats wealthy men (like Bloomberg) differently from wealthy women (like Whitman, McMahon)–just a fact of life, however unfair and 2) because the press, forever liberal, would be in Jerry Brown’s corner and would happily go along with the liberal meme that Whitman was trying to “buy the election.”

    It didn’t help that newcomer that she was, Whitman didn’t give the press the kind of access to her they demanded. I thought I read that it was Romney’s people advising her, but someone on this blog said it was Arnold’s people. Whoever they are, they are awful.

    The other thing is Arnold–his miserable failure as a governor after touting himself as a person who understood business, serves to underscore that having a pro-business mind-set and business know-how (not that Arnold has that) means nothing.

    Many Californians never knew Jerry Brown as governor. They were too young. They don’t live in Oakland so they don’t know what a do-nothing mayon he was. Whitman refused to even try to attack his record as attorney general. What I can say is that she blew it. She let him define her instead of the other way around. How stupid that with all that money, she didn’t get a leg up on defining him right after the primary win. I kept waiting for ads that attacked him, defined him, put him on the defensive, and they never, never came. All that money, and all of it spent to beat Poizner (she overspent there), and all that money which sat somewhere in her bank account, not spent until after Brown attacked and defined her. I just can’t evern imagine amateurs planning such an ineffective strategy. I thought every political strategist had learned from Dukakis’ massacre at the hands of Atwater–you can’t let the other guy define you first or you’ll never recover.

    The same can be said for Carly. So many ineffective ads. In all the years Babs Boxer has been around, you’d think that the minute the primary was over, Carly’s people would have had an easy time getting file footage of Boxer being her idiot self….but no, they waited until after Boxer’s very effective defining of Carly as the CEO who outsourced jobs. I mean, how hard was it for strategists to see that that’s all Boxer had.

    It does make you wonder what kind of people Whitman would hire to go to Sacto with her to govern if she hired such crap as strategists. Carly? I really thought she’d be a better attacker or, failing to land blows first, a better counter-puncher.

    There is an effective way to counter the union support–run ads against union LEADERSHIP, which even teachers hate. But no, no such thing occurred.

  • victrola

    I’m looking at California like a Christian church that sends missionaries over to Saudi Arabia. It’s a complete waste, I’d much rather have those resources spent on fertile ground.

    The fact that these two races are even close tells me all I need to know about the state and its future. If we can’t win in this cycle, against these Democrats with PLENTY of money, we need to look beyond California.

    Fiorina has an outside shot, but usually when we start rationalizing polls, we’re in trouble.

    Let the state be a spectacular failure to serve as an example to the rest of the country what happens when liberalism takes over. We can control Congress and the White House without California. The rest of the country is just going to have to move on and leave California behind.

    p.s. sorry to California residents

  • JSobieski

    I suspect there is a lot of truth in what you say, but at this late date—do no harm, save the ventings/lamentations for where they will do no harm.

    On November 3rd, I would suggest writing a diary. A lot of people are interested in CA, and given the size of the state, is not something we should ever give up on.

  • http://www.ArchitecturalShots.com mdyou

    …but I live in an extremely liberal town in SoCal. I mean, fruits and nuts everywhere. 2008 was unbearable with Obamamania.

    Last week the local Dems publicized a visit by the Democrat candidate for Congress and they got – 6 people to attend. They had to walk this guy up and down the street to give him something to do.

    We talked politics at the golf course the other day, two conservatives and a half dozen libs. These guys are friends of mine, I know all of them well. They’re not voting this cycle. They’re embarrassed by Brown so much it’s all they can do to poke fun at Meg. And secretly, I think they have the hots for Carly.

    I hope I’m right.

  • smitch61

    I do not live there, but from my view a thousand miles away, both of these women are the better candidates. period, regardless of their missteps. Republicans cannot run the same campaigns as democrats do, that is just a given. Keep the faith, the people of CA see they are the better candidates, they have to.!!!!

  • smitch61

    The dems have no reason to go out and vote tomorrow…. We have all the reason in the world. !!!!! We shall prevail!

  • securitymom

    I am so hoping that the enthusiasm gap/wave can pull both Carly and Meg along. I will be helping with GOTV again tomorrow to ensure that I have done everything I possibly can to help Meg/Carly/Harmer win.

    Good luck to our Great Nation tomorrow. Perhaps some sanity can be restored.

    Oh, and go Giants.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Fiorina’s little comment for the Giants tested my support for Republicans in the general. :)

  • acat

    * Valkyries aren’t noted for being anorexic little waifs… more like Mama Grizzlies.

    And I’m hoping that the polling and “atmospherics”, which is all that I’m reading above proves misleading.

    Mew

  • dio55

    people actually might put the socialist queen back in office is one thing, but to think that WV might put an abamacare supporter who replaces a doddering old clansman makes me hope these two states are ripe for SESSESSION where they can call themselves the united states of IDIOTS

  • Adjoran

    Pat Brown was supposed to whip him badly. Oops.

    California is home to most of the nation’s pure insanity, but every now and then the state has moments of clarity.

    One thing is certain: if they continue upon their present course to spend wildly and drive business and jobs from the state, their self-induced suffering may provide a real “stimulus” to other states.

    And they should be advised: no matter who wins, there will be no federal bailout. American taxpayers will not pay for left coast follies.

  • mboyle1988

    shows early voting tied. They have a heavy democratic model for election day though. We will see.

  • cwilson

    any republican is automatically disqualified, and they are too young to remember just how bad Moonbeam Brown really was/is.

  • redtillimdead

    40 million on GOTV is a BIG help especially in a race as close as CA-Sen when the Dems outsourced their GOTV to the unions (We all know how well that worked out for them in NJ last year).
    I am confident about the Senate race, but I know it will be close. We need to GOTV. Text JOIN to Carly (22759) to make GOTV calls from anywhere in the country. EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!

  • redtillimdead

    In the Bay area.

  • redtillimdead

    Is the most important thing we can do in this race. Like I said above, ANYONE ANYWHERE can GOTV for Carly by texting JOIN to Carly (22759)

  • redtillimdead

    This election is going down to the wire. The NRSC’s two tracking polls show it tied, with Carly looking better. Same for the Fiorina camps tracking poll. According to PPP, Fiorina surged 7 points in a week. GOTV for Carly from anywhere in America by texting JOIN to Carly (22759)

  • securitymom

    Oh, and go GIANTS! :)

  • eastbaylarry
  • phenne

    … but I do NOT “resemble that remark.”

    LOL — everything you guys say about California voters is painfully true.

    All I tell my like-minded Conservative Friends, “Participate in the Underground Economy, if you plan to stay here long-term.”

    This state will slowly slide into the abyss — and the only way for change to occur — is to ‘hit rock bottom’.

    I, resident of California since ’86, acknowledge the depression others feel.

  • geemen73

    This is for all the voters in Delaware, West Virginia, California, and all across this great land. We the people have a real opportunity to change the direction this country is heading. When we wanted less they told us more is better, trust us youll like it, when we said read the bill, they said we cant read through 2000 pages, just vote for it and we will find out whats in it later, when we said NO they said too bad. Go out and Vote tomorrow if you havent already, Just remember how the last two years have gone, some of us unemployed, some lost homes, our government spent 900 billion to stop unemployment, it didnt, we know who got the money and we know who we owe the money too.. So think of some of those things and say to yourself can I vote for someone who is going to just keep rubber stamping this cr@p. The decision shouldnt be hard, lets get the country back on constitutional principles. Nov 3 starts the real work, to remain active in any way possible to keep the fire under some butts, and keep the match there close by when they stray… Go Vote “MAN UP AMERICA”

  • californiagold

    First, I?d like to say that Carly Fiorina is one of the most impressive republican candidates running this year. Even though she?s running against an opponent who has attempted to mudsling, Carly Fiorina has done her best to keep the tone positive. And Fiorina?s personal story is one of courage and hope. If elected. Carly Fiorina will represent California well.

    Having said that, 25% of voters who will cast ballots on Tuesday are independents. They will decide who wins this race. The polls are all over the place, but most show a small but significant trend towards Fiorina. It will take a tremendous GOTV effort on Tuesday to win, but the wave is with Fiorina, so it can be done.

    The key for Fiorina to win will be to exceed expectations in areas of the state where republicans and independents have a slight advantage. That means Fiorina must perform well from Sacramento all the way down the central valley, as well as San Diego,Orange, and Riverside counties. On election night if Fiorina is pulling at least 55% in these areas, that should be enough to compensate for the huge advantage Boxer has in San Francisco and LA.

  • bluerose75

    You would think people who see their taxes shooting through the roof, businesses locating elsewhere and moving, as well as, record debt and unemployment would cause the people in CA to MAKE A CHANGE!!! But I digress!! Elect the Same!! It will get better…oh yeah take a ride with tinkerbell over Sleeping Beauty’s Castle in Anaheim!!! if you believe that!!

    A 35 million plus welfare state!! Great! with a higher than normal Omama approval rate!!! Great! boy paradise will come with Jerry Brown and Boxer’s Senatorial Crown!!

    I feel for many of the conservatives in this state…two areas SF and LA seem to dominate your destiny and they are pimarily liberal bastions of lost futures and empty promises!

    I hope the conservative tide that is rising with each hour will have enough power behind it not to crest before reaching the outer banks of the Central Valley!

    These red areas of the state are the last hope for the California Dream!

    Good Luck Carly and Meg!

  • californiagold

    Many races will be called long before California polls close. It will be important for voters not to listen to democrat media gurus claim that the senate is out of republican reach, or that Fiorina can’t win.

    Moral of the story, get out and vote !

  • IJB

    In CA! (Now, I didn’t answer, because in general I don’t if I don’t know who it is I don’t answer my door, but it was clearly a GOP canvasser hitting my condo development from the literature they left).

    I’ve lived in CA uninterrupted for about 20 years now, and I don’t think I’ve *ever* gotten an in-person canvasser before!

    So if this is what Meg Whitman’s paying for on the GOTV effort, it’s clearly unprecedented IMHO…

  • IJB

    For example, I live in San Diego, and I’d say overall that there have been more Dem ads than GOP ads – why? because I think the CA Republicans have to assume that San Diego will vote for them, so the advertising has been focused on the Dems trying to whittle down support for Whitman and Fiorina in this part of the state (and, I have to say – to me, the anti-Whitman ads have seemed more effective than the anti-Fiorina ads: I find the latter to be very weak). Now the CA GOP candidates *are* running ads here – and I think most the ads from Whitman and Fiorina, and also Cooley for AG, are pretty good – but they haven’t been running as many as the Dems.

    Anyway, you’re in the Bay Area – my guess is that the GOP doesn’t even bother to run ads up there (if I were advising them, I’d tell a statewide GOP candidate to skip the Bay Area, and run ads in the Sacramento TV market instead). Meanwhile, the Bay Area is CA Dem’s *base* – so the Dems will *always* run ads there to try to gin up Dem base voting.

    So I think you shouldn’t be discouraged – you’re in a part of CA where you’re a lot less likely to see the full effect of CA GOP ads, because frankly I don’t think they even bother to run many ads where you are.

  • kirstin

    I wonder how much Boxer’s TV ads about outsourcing hurt Fiorina. Since Fiorina resigned from HP in 2005, all of those people who look as if they’re going to cry must have lost their jobs at least five years ago! I’m sure that they got advance notice and good severance packages.

    I hope that Fiorina pulls it out and that Star Parker beats Laura Richardson.

  • tcgeol

    My vote is already registered for Raese, but this race is not quite like most of the Senate races. I don’t want to see Manchin win under any circumstances, so I’m with you. On the other hand, he is about as conservative as you can get for a Democrat and WV is still a union-controlled Democratic state even though we run conservative. If we had a Boxer-type Democrat running in WV, we would win by a landslide, but unfortunately we don’t.