There is no need to block an AT&T acquisition of T-Mobile


In the fast-paced, highly-competitive market of wireless phone and Internet access, this announcement stands out. The wireless carrier with the second-most subscribers, AT&T, is to acquire the number four carrier, T-Mobile USA. Some would say that this is a grave threat to competitiveness, risks reducing competition and increasing prices on everyone, and so should be stopped by the benevolent masters of the Obama administration. I disagree.

This is a young and vibrant market, with many competitors already out there, and more yet to come. The acquisition of a lagging company by the #2 company only puts pressure on the #1 firm, Verizon Wireless. Not only that, but existing regulations are plenty strong, and will almost surely result in resources being made available to lesser firms, reshaping the market without reducing choice.

Yes, it looks like T-Mobile USA was on the way down. While it was the number four wireless carrier in America last quarter, it was also the top carrier to lose subscribers in 2010Q4. Verizon added 1.1 million, AT&T gained 2.8 million, and Sprint gained 1.1 million as well, but T-Mobile lost 23,000 net subscribers. Even #5 MetroPCS grew much better, adding 290,000 of its own, and MetroPCS made less than a quarter of the revenue to begin with.

And it seems unlikely that T-Mobile was going to be able to catch up without a true 4G plan in the wings. T-Mobile’s ads can say all they want that HSPA+ is “4G”, but people have ways of noticing that T-Mobile’s “4G” just can’t compete with true 4G offerings like Verizon’s, Sprint/Clearwire’s, and even MetroPCS’s. Yes, the company you may never have heard of is gradually rolling out its own LTE service centered around larger metro areas, not surprising given the company’s name.

So of the top firms, #1, #3, #5, and #8 have 4G going today. #6 and #7 have announced definite plans to deploy 4G. Who’s that leave? #2 AT&T and #4 T-Mobile, the two companies who have been advertising the limited HSPA+ upgrade as 4G, even when it’s better described as an upgraded 3G. These are the two companies greatest at risk of falling behind technologically, while at the same time happening to use the same technology now (though at different frequencies; that’s the only thing that keeps an unlocked iPhone from running on T-Mobile at full 3G speed).

If we don’t let these two firms merge, then what we’d risk seeing over time is both of them falling off. Better to let the two of them combine resources to compete better with Verizon and Sprint/Clearwire (yes, the #3 and #8 firms share the same WiMax 4G network), than to risk losing both. Sure, it seems unlikely looking at the numbers that AT&T would collapse, but consider factors like AT&T losing iPhone exclusivity, and the influx of true 4G phones hitting Verizon and Sprint, and that could change quickly.

One would think that a big company like AT&T would be able to deploy 4G service. The company has previously talked about going 4G with LTE, and seems likely to do so in the future, but at this time there is nothing happening. Instead, AT&T seems content to upgrade its backhaul (the key Internet connections made to every wireless tower, which dictate how well it can serve its customers, and which got overloaded in the early days of the iPhone), waiting until it’s ready before offering true 4G. One imagines that adding T-Mobile’s resources could only help with that plan.

It’s also been a huge point of contention between Verizon and AT&T that Verizon’s “map of coverage” is larger according to some metrics. If AT&T gets a rapid expansion into areas that T-Mobile covers that AT&T does not, then suddenly the race between the top two becomes that much closer, that much more competitive, and therefore that much better for customers.

And besides, there’s a lot more to the world of wireless carriers than the big guys we see on television. The country is loaded with regional carriers that serve many people just fine. They get a phone, often free, and they can do what they want: make calls, send texts, get on Facebook and Twitter. It would be a mistake to declare the market non-competitive just because those of us with more specialized needs (national coverage, high-speed data) lose T-Mobile as an option, “only” being left with Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, MetroPCS, US Cellular, Clearwire, probably more I’m not thinking of, and any other firms that enter the market later such as LightSquared.

Some monopoly situation there, eh? Let the merger happen. Let AT&T sell off redundant spectrum of T-Mobile’s that it no longer needs, let AT&T sell off redundant towers in areas that AT&T already covers well, two things the government can already demand AT&T do without blocking the deal, and the market will have a sudden opening for someone else to join in or even expand. In the end, life goes on and we’ll still see fierce competition in this market.

Oh, were you worried about data caps? Then stop digging a hole of regulation and order the FCC to take its hands off of wireless ISPs, silly!


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AT&T is Crony Capitalism

lionofzion Monday, March 21st at 10:50AM EDT (link)

I really couldn’t disagree more. Anyone that thinks the US cellular market is “fast-paced, highly-competitive” is not living in reality. There is a de facto duopoly in the U.S. with Ma Bell and Verizon. Cell rates keep rising, contracts more limiting, more caps, higher texting fees, and overall less choice. With LTE rolling out we now have the threat of killing off the interchangeable SIMs (a big deal for corporations that rely on Blackberries) and instead being replaced with differing form factors to effectively end SIM cards. Data caps will kill off any high bandwidth applications and will cement the big players in the market since the barriers to entry will be too high for most entrepreneurs. Conservatives need to be against Big Labor, Big Government, and Big Business. If anything, we should be for breaking up this duopoly instead of arguing for AT&T’s expansion that will hurt the economy and consumers.

Nice first post

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 11:07AM EDT (link)

Did you read that off of a socialist pamphlet, about how the mighty Socialist revolution will crush the crony capitalists with their sacks of money?

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This has nothing to do with Socialism.

congressworksforus (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 11:34AM EDT (link)

Neil,

Most “Big Business” is run in ways that care little for their customer; they work purely on the fact that they have so many customers, they can stand to churn a certain percentage.

In the telecom industry in particular (and I have several friends who work in its core) the vast majority of consumers just use the phone/data stream, they don’t complain, they don’t have questions, they don’t have issues. It’s only a small percentage that require customer support. These large companies really don’t give a rats rear end about that percentage. Why do you think everyone’s contracts nowadays are 2 years instead of 1? They’re locked in, and the companies know it. So why bother doing anything to help them?

But there are big companies that ARE run well, so we know it CAN be done. So why do we stand up and defend those that don’t?

I don’t agree with the original poster’s comment about breaking up the so-called duopoly. I currently use one of the lesser companies for my high-speed internet service, which being rural took a long time to get, despite the promises made by the “Big 4″. So I know that competition works and I support it every time I can.

That said, I currently do use T-Mobile for cell service; the day the deal closes I go elsewhere: one bad experience with AT&T was enough for me. I’m a big advocate of voting with my dollars…

Remember, if the left wins, abortion will not only be legal, it will be mandatory.

I, for one, oppose state control of private property

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 11:50AM EDT (link)

When the state dictates to whom T-Mobile shareholders may sell their property, property rights are lost and social control of the economy is imposed.

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Agreed.

congressworksforus (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 6:34PM EDT (link)

But that’s still not Socialism. (Although, as others have said, it’s certainly a tool Socialists will use…)

Remember, if the left wins, abortion will not only be legal, it will be mandatory.

 
 
 

Anti-trust laws are totally necessary to protect the proletariat! No merger!

Greg Garrison (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 12:32PM EDT (link)

I mean, once a company is on top of the world, it’s, like, almost totally impossible to fall to earth. Imagine a scenario where one computer company (We’ll call them Microsoft, just for giggles, because it is kind of nerdy-sounding and very techy) is such a huge player that the Department of Justice pushes a huge case against them that is ultimately settled with some money and a few software tweaks. (Hooray! No more monopoly!)

Down the road, an arch-competitor is on the verge of bankruptcy (I’m going to use the name Apple here, because it’s an implausible computer name). Clearly, they can’t succeed, because Microsoft is strangling the market.

Apple must need the government to help save them. How else can they survive? They are doomed to failure! I would suggest that within 15 years, their market cap might exceed Microsoft’s, and they would be the subject of multiple anti-trust investigations themselves, but that scenario is just too ridiculous.

(In my crazy hypothetical scenario, obviously, the little guy needs to be protected from Apple, because only the super-rich can afford a $200 handheld, touch-screen computer that doubles as a phone, and it’s unthinkable that a more successful competitor might arise.)

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5 (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 12:35PM EDT (link)

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It works, even if you change the names from...

acat (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 1:24PM EDT (link)

Microsoft to Time-Warner or Apple to Hulu, or trade Microsoft for Blockbuster and Apple for Redbox….

The design and build of better mousetraps is a huge part of our economy, and writing failing business plans into laws is the last refuge of scoundrels in executive clothing.

Let. Them. Fail.

Mew

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Apples and Oranges

PaladinLostHour (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 8:00PM EDT (link)

Reality check folks – there’s a little thing called ‘spectrum’ involved here. And that is one colossal barrier to entry that makes your ill considered comparisons of Microsoft and Apple non operational.

This is a bad deal, objectively.

Yes, yes, we get it, that's the extremist left talking point (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 8:42PM EDT (link)

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FCC Controls the airwaves

ctay20 Tuesday, March 22nd at 7:56PM EDT (link)

Your comparison to the Microsoft debacle would be correct if the FCC didn’t control the spectrum required to have a cellular company. This allows for the possibility of a true monopoly as opposed to Microsoft where no one controlled the production of software.
When there is a defined limit of the available wireless spectrum that is vigorously enforced by the FCC the barriers to entry are no longer simply desire, ability and funding as they were with Microsoft. This merger brings less competition and less choice. One need only look at the Android operating system that has been heavily adopted and promoted by T-Mobile to see what will be lost if this merger is approved. Other carriers (even AT&T) do carry Android phones but none of them promoted them the way T-mobile did.

First post – had to wait 24 hours to put it up…

 
 

Not quite

lionofzion Monday, March 21st at 4:10PM EDT (link)

No, not quite. How is wanting competition somehow socialist? Look at the data and tell me I’m wrong: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d10779.pdf

Prices have gone up with consolidation in the market, not down. AT&T even admitted on the conference call that they expect to “grow ARPU” and “reduce churn” (ie. gouge and make sure you can’t get out of your contract). Why can’t T Mobile be bought by a foreign carrier instead? We need to encourage more players, not less.

T-Mobile is already owned by a foreign carrier!

congressworksforus (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 6:30PM EDT (link)

It’s called Deutsche Telecom.

Remember, if the left wins, abortion will not only be legal, it will be mandatory.

 

Get educated, son

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 7:07PM EDT (link)

Adults are talking. Run and play, and when you actually understand the facts and the issues, you can join in, Joey.

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Aren't you forgetting something, Neil

PaladinLostHour (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 8:05PM EDT (link)

“Be respectful, or be banned.”

If you have counters to the points in lionofzion’s posts, let’s hear ‘em. This isn’t a cleaned up version of the Daily Kos – deal with the argument, not with the person.

I'm not forgetting anything

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 8:41PM EDT (link)

When people just make stuff up, I’m under no obligation to be respectful of that.

Besides, you are in violation of the rules. The rules clearly state that any concerns about rules violations are to be taken up at the Contact page, not in the comments section.

You are not a moderator. I am. You don’t get to try to moderate my comments. If you don’t like my comments, you get to go to the Contact page and take them up with Erick and co.

Failure to abide by the Posting Rules will result in your account being disabled, so do not attempt to argue.

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Understood.

PaladinLostHour (Diary) Tuesday, March 22nd at 10:53PM EDT (link)

Will ensure I abide by the rules.

 
 

You seem to have a track record of this whining

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 8:44PM EDT (link)

http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2011/02/17/a-response-to-jim-hoft-on-the-matter-of-lara-logan/#comment-5228

So we’ll make this your final warning.

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I'm sure Sprint and U.S. Cellular will be interested in this news flash -nt-

Bill S (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 8:59PM EDT (link)

“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins

 
 

Competition works for business and consumer...

IronDioPriest (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 2:30PM EDT (link)

…whether there are hundreds of smaller entities nipping at each others heels, or a handful of behemoths slugging it out.

The problem arises when government intervenes to thwart acquisitions and mergers of the behemoths supposedly for the sake of the consumer. The fallout from that is NEVER a free and open market of competitive businesses, but rather a government-controlled playing field that inevitably favors the behemoth AND places more government control on the marketplace. The entire initiative is designed to place the control of a private entities activities and assets more firmly under the control of government.

Preemptive intervention in the free market is a tool of socialism.

“If we finally fail in this great and glorious contest, it will be by bewildering ourselves in groping for the middle way.”

-John Adams, 1776

Join in the conservative forum discussion at “It’s About Liberty”: http://www.itsaboutliberty.com

"Preemptive intervention in the free market is a tool of socialism."

PaladinLostHour (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 8:26PM EDT (link)

Not always, and probably not in this case.

ATTMobile (40%) and Verizon (32%) would control 72% of the US market. Both have much more in common with each other (bandwidth caps, dozens of add-on fees, and access to the iphone) than with any of their competitors. They won’t overtly coordinate strategies, because they don’t *have* to. Sprint, at 16% and with major cash flow issues, is not a threat. The other players are to small to matter. They will make the market and enhance revenues by limiting their costs, which means supporting a discrete set of products and services. And by the time the lack of choice is apparent, regulatory capture will be a fact on the ground, and steps to address the issue will fail on the ‘disruption’ argument.

 
 

Wasn't AT&T a

dwintnf (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 4:59PM EDT (link)

monopoly at one point?
It was broken up into the bells. Pacbell, swbell, etc.

Technology might change but a new monopoly does not compute.

This deal will go through but I question everything and right now the answers I am getting is history repeating.

The status quo has got to go…

DW in Tahoe

Not exactly

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 5:48PM EDT (link)

That AT&T is no more; it was bought out by Cingular. Cingular just took the name AT&T.

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Actually...

congressworksforus (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 6:33PM EDT (link)

What is AT&T today is actually what SBC (aka Ameritech) bought a couple of years back, but took the AT&T name. Similar to when America West bought US Airways and kept the US Airways name instead.

Cingular was AT&T’s wireless brand, which reverted back to the AT&T name after the SBC purchase.

All ironic of course given that SBC was a product of the original break-up of AT&T…

Remember, if the left wins, abortion will not only be legal, it will be mandatory.

 
 

PS

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 5:49PM EDT (link)

“Question everything” sounds like a hippie t-shirt.

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Eh, it was rhyming that ping'd my radar...

acat (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 6:01PM EDT (link)

“hey hey ho ho {insert object of hate here} has got to go” …

Anyway, that said, yes, the AT&T brand is not the same “death star” that it used to be…. and I have no particular problem with them buying T-Mobile, except that I know several people who left AT&T for T-Mobile seeking better service or lower rates… and there’s always Verizon. (or Cricket or Boost or Clear… lots of options)

Ever since phone number portability was mandated, I really don’t care about anything except rates and coverage maps.

Mew

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Ding

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 6:03PM EDT (link)

Your last line is the key. Portability is that rare, shining regulation that is just plain good.

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Why did you leave out CREDO, Cat?

Greg Garrison (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 6:21PM EDT (link)

A portion of their earnings* goes to buying rainbows and unicorns, with a dash of hope** on the side.

* Profit is evil, so I replaced it with earnings.
** The letter in hope should be a heart, but I don’t know how to do that on RS.

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I only listed the serious competitors I'm aware of...

acat (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 6:50PM EDT (link)

If CREDO didn’t hit my radar, then they didn’t get listed.

Not my problem if they can’t figure out how to advertise to conservative cats with large disposable incomes….

Mew

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I forgot the /snark tag.

Greg Garrison (Diary) Monday, March 21st at 10:29PM EDT (link)

CREDO is a tiny telecom company that advertises in The Nation, et al. They donate part of their profits to Democracy Now, Media Matters, The Zinn Education Project (which I assume distributes godawful history books or something), et al. It’s pretty awesome in a yes-this-is-real, knee-slapping way.

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I oppose the merger.

NightTwister (Diary) Tuesday, March 22nd at 7:47AM EDT (link)

But for purely personal reasons. I’m a T-Mobile subscriber, primarily due to their Unlimited plans and their innovation in the Android space. AT&T doesn’t offer unlimited plans, and beyond the iPhone their handset choices are uninteresting.

It will be interesting to see if they grandfather in the unlimited plans from T-Mobile and if the expand their Android offerings or eventually cut them off.

I think the merger is a loser for T-Mobile customers.

“Baseball fits America well because it expresses our longing for the rule of law while licensing our resentment of law givers.” ― Major League Commissioner of Baseball A. Bartlett Giamatti

Well, them's the breaks

Neil Stevens (Diary) Tuesday, March 22nd at 10:36AM EDT (link)

Unlimited plans were not helping the business.

I understand where you’re coming from, though! When my old DSL provider was acquired by Verizon, my service declined. Ditto when my cable television provider was acquired by Time Warner.

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Actually, T-Mobile has had good profits.

NightTwister (Diary) Tuesday, March 22nd at 10:42AM EDT (link)

They were just bleeding customers, so I don’t know how long the profitability would’ve lasted.

I might have to take a look at Sprint.They’re going to have to do something really creative to compete, which could mean unlimited plans and hopefully a better selection of Android devices.

Also, I’m not positive I’ll lose my unlimited plan. I know some people that have them with AT&T. As long as they don’t change their plan they get to keep it. Hopefully that’ll be the case with T-Mobile customers that have them when we’re ported over.

At least the coverage will be better. T-Mobile works for me mostly where I need it, but there are times I go outside the city and there’s nothing out there now.

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Yeah you'll probably have a chance to keep yours

Neil Stevens (Diary) Tuesday, March 22nd at 10:50AM EDT (link)

If you’re under contract they won’t want to let you out of that contract, and risk losing you to Verizon.

Invisible hand at work.

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It certainly would have been better for the market if Sprint bought T-Mobile

YnotNOW (Diary) Tuesday, March 22nd at 10:50AM EDT (link)

But the FCC and FTC don’t get to broker the deals.

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

No it wouldn't

Neil Stevens (Diary) Tuesday, March 22nd at 10:53AM EDT (link)

It’s better for the market if you can challenge the leader. AT&T is in much better position to do that than Sprint.

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But now ATT is the leader

YnotNOW (Diary) Thursday, March 24th at 10:02AM EDT (link)

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

 

But now ATT is the leader

YnotNOW (Diary) Thursday, March 24th at 10:02AM EDT (link)

YnotNOW
If not me, who? If not now, when?

 
 
 

Also, short-run profits aren't the only thing

Neil Stevens (Diary) Tuesday, March 22nd at 10:51AM EDT (link)

If T-Mobile lacked the capital to acquire spectrum and build infrastructure for 4G, they were toast in the long run.

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I do know some people that have unlimited plans with AT&T.

NightTwister (Diary) Thursday, March 24th at 9:41PM EDT (link)

They’re old plans, and so long as they don’t change, they get to keep them. I hope that’s the case for me when we’re moved over.

“Baseball fits America well because it expresses our longing for the rule of law while licensing our resentment of law givers.” ― Major League Commissioner of Baseball A. Bartlett Giamatti