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Tech at Night: AT&T, T-Mobile, FCC, Patents

Tech at Night

So the top story this week is going to be the AT&T acquisition of T-Mobile USA. There’s a lot being said about it, about unions, about competition, but the story I’m seeing emerging is that this deal is about spectrum. AT&T sees in T-Mobile a way to get the spectrum it needs going forward. In fact, even power grabbing FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski said to the CTIA that this is an issue:

If we do nothing in the face of the looming spectrum crunch, many consumers will face higher prices – as the market is forced to respond to supply and demand – and frustrating service – connections that drop, apps that run unreliably or too slowly.

So not only is T-Mobile a sensible purchase for AT&T in the short run, due to their use of similar technology, but in the long run this is the kind of purchase AT&T may need to be able to compete with Verizon. Verizon, of course, already got more spectrum when it bought the C Block of old television spectrum in 2008.

So if we want competition now and in the future, we need to let the deal happen.

I already addressed other competition concerns on Monday, but now I m just going to go ahead and give a rapid fire overview of other outlooks I’m seeing.

  • Well-off radicals are calling it “unthinkable” not to have the state intervene on this, and dictate whom can or cannot buy T-Mobile USA. Of course, that particular rhetorical trick is misleading, because today’s AT&T is not the same as 1987′s AT&T. AT&T is only so in name only: it used to be called Cingular.
  • Dick Blumenthal, the guy who lied about a war record, all but spitting on actual war veterans, wants to use the deal to push for Net Neutrality. What does one have to do with the other? Nothing, unless you’re a power-hungry Socialist aiming for total state-run media in America, like Free Press is.
  • Harvard Business Review analyzes metrics of the health of wireless competition, and warns that the FCC may use some irrelevant ones as a pretext to block the deal saying “Although the FCC’s assertion on what constitutes prime spectrum might be helpful in blocking a merger of AT&T and Verizon, or barring AT&T or Verizon from purchasing all of the additional spectrum below 1000 MHz, it is not helpful here.” Hal Singer’s concusion is that it’s all about prices, and everything else is a dodge. Can a combined AT&T/T-Mobile raise prices without bleeding customers to Verizon, Sprint, and others? No way, I say.
  • Bret Swanson at Forbes says the deal is good for everyone because it’s necessary for either company to continue dealing with the growth of wireless data, or the “exaflood” as he calls it. He cites Cisco’s prediction that wireless data traffic will double 26 times from 2010 to 2015. He points out that any other way to acquire spectrum may cause AT&T to have to wait four years, time that might let Verizon dominate the market.
  • Tech Liberation Front also hammers the spectrum issue, calling the problem “artificial spectrum scarcity.”
  • TLF also hits the competition factor with a wonderful illustration of how a series of wireless mergers have resulted in lower prices, not oligopolist’s rents, for the public. The market is competitive.
  • The left continues to split on the merger, with Loretta Sanchez and Joe Baca, California Democrats, coming out in favor. Also, some “minority groups” who know that the poor need a competitive market, particularly in cities where it may be harder to get some wired Internet options, are also in favor of this. So of course the radicals are accusing them of being bought off. Typical Alinskyite tactics from the neo-Marxists there.

Moving on, I do have some other things to cover. Facebook’s Fergal Walker thinks wireless Internet will move away from unrealistic unlimited plans, to “customers paying more for eating more.” People need to get ready for that. TANSTAAFL and all that.

I’d have attended The US Chamber of Commerce’s Restoring Balance to the Regulatory Process seminar, but I’m on the other side of the country. We’ve got to do something about runaway regulators, though.

Example: The European Union nearly passed a law requiring all phones have a MicroUSB port for charging and data access. They stopped short at the last minute thankfully, but Slippery Brick slipped the mask and went political, complaining about it. I’m glad though, because I want firms like LG to be able to find even more convenient charging methods. Regulation harms innovation.

Bad Patent of the Day: Google patents the Google Doodle, as though they were the first company ever to do specialized versions of a logo for special events. I seem to remember the highly successful 1984 Summer Olympics, when it seemed like every company out there was rushing to join in. We need patent reform, and not the Leahy bill which would just make life easier for big corporations with lots of patent lawyers.

Meanwhile, Sony continues to get a government subsidy on covering up the poor engineering of the Playstation 3 software lockouts, which go far beyond copyright and control what you can do with your own Playstation 3 in the privacy of your home.

If China can disconnect phone conversations including the word protest, then people shouldn’t doubt me when I say that AT&T can tell if you’re breaking your contract and tethering your phone to your computer. Where’s Walter Duranty to tell us that China’s networks are open and free, though?

Senate Democrats Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, Frank Lautenberg, and Tom Udall are using government to attempt to blackmail Apple into censoring the App Store to remove apps that provide private oversight over police activity, just because they can be used by people who choose to drive drunk. DUI checkpoints are a serious matter of debatable Constitutionality, and oversight of them should not be waved away with threats from Senators, I say.

I do think we need copyright reform, but I’m not sure I think I want Google to be able to declare a copyright to be ‘orphaned’ just because it can’t easily acquire a license to a book. If we want to fix copyrights, let’s reduce their length to something sensible, rather than selectively let copyrights expire early for the little guy, while letting then run practically forever for large businesses. That’s exactly backwards from how we should be encouraging innovation.

When I first heard that RSA Security, Inc. was broken into, with information about its SecurID authentication system compromised, I shrugged. My assumption was that if the system is designed well, then it shouldn’t matter. However people keep talking about it, including Bruce Schneier, who wrote the book on cryptography. So I’m beginning to wonder if the SecurID has serious issues, and users of it need to seek alternatives. As Schneier puts it: “RSA Data Security, Inc. is probably pretty screwed if SecurID is compromised.”

And finally, I’m down to my final Firefox window of the night, after going through a record 17 stories (plus more in research as I wrote) to create tonight’s Tech at Night. I think the sun’s even coming up soon in the east as I finish this! Anyway, Big Government continues to hammer on the unfair, un-Constitutional, economy-hurting Amazon Tax proposal to attempt to apply our Sales Tax to firms in other states. Renaming it to a Use Tax doesn’t change the facts, people. Two more firms are exposed as being hypocritical on the plan: Macy’s and Saks Fifth Avenue.

COMMENTS

  • tangoone

    Neil,

    You are just flat on the wrong side of this.

    Reducing competition in the cell phone market can only raise prices and lower quality of service,

    US already lags most of the world in this area. We have the highest prices and the slowest service.

    If you want to support big telephone do not do it under the banner of being conservative.

    We should oppose this merger with all our energy.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That’s odd because you only registered two days ago.

    Ehh. I’ll just ban you since you’re clearly being dishonest about this.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    One key here is that he makes that vague talking point remarka bout “lags most of the world,” without a) citing his source or b) even actually saying what metric he’s talking about.

    Because I’ve love for somebody to try to find me a country with more wireless competition than we do. How many other countries have as many 3G and especially as many 4G networks as we do?

  • http://www.audacious-software.com cjkarr

    “AT&T is only so in name only: it used to be called Cingular.”

    Apologies for the nipicking, but AT&T is much more than a rebranded Cingular. Going back, it’s basically SBC plus a ton of other acquisitions, including AT&T Corp (where it reclaimed the AT&T name). While the company formerly known as Cingular provided the bulk of its mobile wireless business, the new AT&T also includes Cellular One and Centennial Communications, two much smaller players. Thus AT&T is now a much larger entity than Cingular ever was.

    Wikipedia has a more complete summary of the details: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT%26T

    As a developer in the mobile software space (mobile web systems & native apps), I have mixed feelings about the acquisition. If T-Mobile was not going to remain a viable entity once the LTE switch began, I’d rather it be acquired than disappear. And AT&T is a logical suitor, but I would have preferred a stronger #3 in Sprint + T-Mobile than shifting marketshare to one of the two dominant carriers.

    As a customer who switched from AT&T (iPhone) to T-Mobile (Android), I do worry about what will happen to the T-Mobile customer service I enjoy now, including the fact that T-Mobile discounts my plan if I pay for my phone upfront with no subsidy (I use several devices for testing apps), and that T-Mobile has been quite strong in the Android space.

    Going forward, I’m worried about higher prices that buy me a poorer customer support. As a developer, I’m particularly worried about AT&T’s brain-dead policies with respect to mobile devices (no sideloading Andoid apps, no unlocking iPhones after they are paid for in full). My developer concerns probably don’t matter to 99.99% of the US mobile market, but I felt like I had a nice home at T-Mobile, and it’ll be painful to watch it be assimilated into the AT&T mothership.

    One last concern that I have is that AT&T will enjoy an effective monopoly position with respect to GSM handsets in the US market. I expect that when T-Mobile disappears, we’ll see a lot fewer Android (and other non-iPhone) devices in the USA as AT&T consolidates their offerings. I would hate to be an HTC, LG, or Samsung and go from having two companies to negotiate with in the US to just one. In all honesty, this issue may disappear once LTE becomes mainstream, so I’m hoping that AT&T’s assimilation of T-Mobile coincides with the first wave of LTE handsets hitting the market so that I’ll still be able to enjoy some form of handset portability between carriers.

    T-Mobile had a good run and will be missed.

  • http://www.audacious-software.com cjkarr

    … while I think that the assimilation of T-Mobile will be a net loss in terms of what I’m getting for my monthly payments, I’m not advocating for the merger to be blocked. I would like to see the FCC extract some consumer-friendly policies in exchange for the regulatory approval – mainly saner unlocking policies and revoking the right to charge customers who pay for their own phones outright the same monthly price as their subsidized-device brethren – but I’m not holding my breath. We did a great job enhancing competition with phone number portability regulations – I’d love to see the same thing happen with device portability as well in the LTE era.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Gotcha.

  • http://www.audacious-software.com cjkarr

    I don’t have any objection to a phone carrier locking down a device while the customer is paying it off the subsidy through a higher bill, but I do object to the situation that I am still not free to do as I wish with the phone (including taking it to another carrier who is more competitive) after I have paid the phone off outright. I think that the fact that AT&T is free to keep iPhones locked to their network is an infringement of my personal property rights.

    T-Mobile figured this out and they won my business with an enlightened unlocking policy (after 45 days or something like that). Since I tend to purchase my phones outright, I’m annoyed that I cannot use my iPhone(s) that I paid for in full (even with just EDGE speeds) on the T-Mobile network to develop and test my mobile apps. Looking at it from a competition perspective, the fact that AT&T is allowed to do this has definitely stymied competition in the mobile market in an artificial manner. If there was a technical reason for this situation (such as the differences between the GSM v. CDMA networks), I wouldn’t be complaining.

    The question at the end of the day comes down to whose iPhone is it? Is it mine or AT&T’s? If it’s my device, why should AT&T be allowed to interfere with my use of it after my financial & contractual obligations to the company have ended? Shouldn’t I be FREE to take my device and business where I like?

  • http://www.audacious-software.com cjkarr

    Sorry about missing the reply button and not attaching this to your original comment.

    One final thought – since you raised the issue of regulation, I’m okay with the T-Mobile/AT&T merger without the federal gov’t dictating locking policies. It’s probably not going to happen, and I’m fine with that.

    However, since AT&T’s costumer-hostile policies will likely replace T-Mobile’s customer-friendly policies, I would like to see a mechanism of some sort that promotes consumer-friendly policies in the mobile space that exist elsewhere. I don’t expect the companies (now that T-Mobile’s going away) to take the initiative; the market’s clearly signaled that the device-portability policies are not as important as number portability. That leaves the gov’t, which is very unlikely to pursue them either.

    I know – wish in one hand…