« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Perry shows strength, but Romney’s front running in doubt?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 18th, 2011 at 08:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Perry Romney

By request I’m taking a look at a new poll of California Republicans by Probolsky Research. It shares problems I’m seeing in many early Presidential polls, but I am surprised at one finding that may be bad news for Mitt Romney.

The facts: The poll is of 750 likely voters (LV determination made by recent voting history in primaries and in general elections), MoE [3.7]. It was a telephone poll but no specific indication is given of mobile phone handling. The poll interestingly breaks out whether support is definite, probable, or leaning.

At the top line though, Mitt Romney leads at 22%. Rick Perry is in second at 15%. Among declared candidates Michele Bachmann is in third at 8%. However these numbers are surely skewed by the inclusion of Sarah Palin at 10%, as I expect her support would be split between Perry and Bachmann. All in all though, I find nothing surprising about those numbers. Perry has emerged as a strong contender.

What is surprising though is the breakdown of strength of support. For three of the top names it’s pretty even: Bachmann 4.1 definite/4.4 probable, Perry 6.1/7.2, Palin 4.8/5.1. But Romney’s support is weaker: 8.5/13.3. That suggests to me that if this poll is accurate, Romney’s status as a front runner is weak, and could collapse at any time.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • ghostship

    One thing I’ve noticed over my years is that many of my fellow Republicans give their support to whatever candidate the pundits and media are supporting or say can win. Instead of focusing on the issues and the candidates philosophy too many people focus on who has the buzz, who has the money, and other campaign minutiae.

    Later on we’ll all complain about why elected Republican so and so isn’t a true ideological Conservative never realizing that it’s because we spent to much time on minor campaign trivia instead of an ideological vetting.

    Why else do so many Republicans give their support to Romney, McCain, and the Bush’s. Might as well just say insert generic Establishment Republican here on the ballot.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    By projecting on us why you think we support a candidate, instead of actually finding out, you show yourself to be the one who isn’t up on the issues.

  • http://jhpruitt.blogtownhall.com/ kipling

    Right now Mitt Romney enjoys a high level of name recognition and is thus the front runner for the nomination. However, as the primaries approach and people begin to move from name recognition to the issues, Romney is going to have a problem.

    On several key issues, Romney has adopted a stance that pits him against the conservative base, especially Romneycare and man-made global warming. As Perry and Bachmann challenge Romney on these issues and he has to defend these positions, I think we will see his frontrunner status diminish.

    Perry has already shown that he is willing to challenge Romney by simply drawing policy distinctions. So far Romney has had it easy with many of the other candidates jockeying for position to challenge the frontrunner. Perry went right to the head of the pack and challenged the frontrunner. Bachmann should follow suit.

  • ghostship

    I follow Conservative blogs and read the news and what I see is mostly people talking about polls, discussing who is currently causing a buzz, and who’s raking in the dollars. What I don’t see much of is debate over philosophical issues.

    I’m not a Gringrich supported but I almost cheered when he made take comment in the debate about talking about the issues instead of campaign minutiae.

    If we are going to change anything in Washington it won’t be with your average run of the mill politician. We need true believers in Conservative principles if the status quo is to ever be changed. That can only happen if we focus on the issues and not the campaign cycle. However, we so often get off track and focused on the little details and lose sight of the big picture.

    The primaries should be focused vetting a candidates ideological beliefs and not campaign minutiae. Strategies can be reworked and messages can be reworded but a man is who he is and can’t be changed.

  • Scope

    you would think that posting a generic comment that no one pays attention to the issues, is a bit ludicrous. I don’t know any single issue that hasn’t gotten some attention here, and some issues have been discussed over and over again. There will always be those that stay asleep until the day of the election, but, over the past couple years even that has been changing. Quite honestly, there are some that I wish would sleep through the next election.

  • ghostship

    I really should have previewed before I posted.

  • Scope

    was apparent in the first NH debate when Pawlenty refused to challenge Romney, after he had previously called Romney’s plan Obaneycare. They were all so sweet to one another it was boring. Perry will change that, and already has.

  • acat

    Romney had hoped to hide under his cloak of invisibility inevitability and let the Conservatives play demolition-derby in Iowa and South Carolina. He could then emerge as “the one who isn’t too damaged to win”.

    So far, though, it’s been a remarkably boring demolition derby. Pawlenty tried to ram Bachmann, but ended up taking himself out, and leaving Bachmann better positioned.

    Romney’s positions on the issues mean he can’t appeal to conservatives – and without an actual crushing challenge among the conservatives, the cloak of invisibility inevitability strategery is .. useless.

    It’s looking like a 3-way race, until we find out if Bachmann is a placeholder or Perry is a flash-in-the-pan. After that, we’re going to see consolidation behind one or the other.

    Mew

  • http://jhpruitt.blogtownhall.com/ kipling

    If Perry and Bachmann will just continue to challenge Romney on the issues, I think he will drop in the polls and they will gain. It could be a two person race by early in the primaries with Perry and Bachmann in the lead.

    Who do you think Bachmann is a placeholder for and why do you think so?

  • http://jhpruitt.blogtownhall.com/ kipling

    A lot of people were disappointed in Pawlenty for that performance. I had hoped to see him challenge Romney.

  • Scope

    Hillary never won her crown, and Romney won’t either. As far as I’m concerned, that crown can stay perched atop Obama’s head as he exits the WH. No more kings, or queens either.

    One would think that with Bachmann’s Iowa straw poll win, for as little as it is worth, would have gotten a big bump in the polling, which really hasn’t happened. InTrade today has Romney at 31%, and Perry is at 35.9%, and Bachmann remains at something like 6.2%. Perry is 2nd behind Romney in NH, and Perry and Bachmann are tied for first place in Wisc. For a guy that announced less than a week ago, he ain’t been too shabby. As someone else said, if he can make it through the next 30 days, he will likely do great, unless he decides to eat his cowboy boots somewhere along the way, and, I doubt he will make that mistake. After all, he would disappoint little Chrissy M if he didn’t have those boots to wear with his tuxedo.

  • JSobieski

    to the race that matters. From what I am seeing, I think there is a 50/50 chance that Paul Ryan is going to throw his hat in the ring. There are a lot of people (including Jeb Bush) who are apparently prodding him to throw his hat in the ring, His wife is on record for saying she approves. Moreover, the only plausible reason to stay off the super-committee was to keep the option to run open.

    I didn’t think Ryan was seriously ever considering running. But there are little nuggets out there that suggest the contrary.

    I don’t even think his immediate goal is really to win a this point. Rather, I think he wants to elevate the debate on the issue of the economy so that people start talking about specifics.

  • funwithknives

    but in your case I suspect ADD is obscuring your vision. A programmer would write this off to GI-GO (i.e. : Garbage In-Garbage Out),but you are not a computer, so what are we all to think?
    Debate over policy and principles occur really regularly on this site ,and it only takes One Viewing to see it. However ( and I’m sure I’ll be upbraided) conservatives just got too at ease. Plus real conservatives were drowned out by Softies( Neos) and Media Favor of same. Both Bushes were never Conservatives and it showed both times, seemingly only to The Converted
    Now, we are in a fight for our Freedom and Liberty. Some of this downfall can be ascribed to the phrase “… At least we got…”. ,but those days are over and now we got us a real fight on our hands. We need all the allies we can get.To get so-called 60%ers (Moderates/independents) on our side, we need to keep messages on point and narrowly focused. *No future without an Economy* is the call. You must have a tuning fork to cause resonation. Ancillary issues will get this fight nowhere.
    Patton used to just guard his flanks and concentrate on going forward, ever forward. Look what that got him,and us. This is the spirit of which I speak. What is The Objective? Commentors on this site know what that is. Getting bogged down in so-called side issues is a losing proposition. Proof will be shown when our Claims of Economic Cures prove out. Then, on to the other ills. You wanna Beat Barry? Start dividing/fractionalizing and see what collapse looks like, up close and real personal. I may be real cynical but Hey, I’ve worked a few losers in my day, and winning has become a real sore point with me.Please consider: What has been done is not winning. “So, don’t do that!”

  • acat

    Surely you don’t think this cat is a fan of Romney! Admittedly, I’d vote for him in the general, unlike Luap Nor, but .. in the primary?

    I voted for Romney in the Illinois primary last time around as a protest against McCain… our primary was so late that it was a choice between Romney and Huckabee and .. lesser of two evils. Now I’m wishing I’d voted for someone else as, apparently, I encouraged Romney. Meh.

    To kipling – the reason Bachmann isn’t helped by Ames is that she’s not a placeholder for a person, but for a fusion of an ideology (unapoloagetic tea-party conservatism) and a resume (executive experience and … electability.

    Perry fits this pretty darn well. Better, I think, than Jeb Bush or Paul Ryan could, so .. if he doesn’t step on his own tongue or get blown away by any dirt the Bush people are throwing by September 15 or so, I think this becomes Perry’s race to lose.

    Mew

  • acat

    First, he forces the other candidates to take a position on his Roadmap. That shouldn’t bother Perry or Bachmann, but it’ll be a burr under Romney and Huntsman’s saddles.

    Ryan entering is also a kick to the {ahem} for Obama (who has made his position on the roadmap abundantly clear) in that it raises the visibility of the roadmap, thus putting up a big red flag on the idea of “thos Republicans have no ideas”.

    It might be worth it for Paul Ryan to enter to get those benefits, but .. they will come at a cost. Mostly, to Ryan’s credibility. Did he dream up the road map just to get himself elected? And – can he get re-elected to the House if he steps on his tongue in the POTUS race?

    Mew

  • Adjoran

    If Romney has accountants with green eyeshades pouring over and worrying about such numbers, he could save money by firing them all and hiring some cheerleaders instead.

    The cheerleaders attract more support and cause fewer headaches, and their projections of primaries nine months out are just as accurate (they use the Lawn Dart system).

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    That was a really bad typo. 5.7 is far too high for that sample size. It’s supposed to be 3.7.