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Polling catastrophe for President Obama

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 29th, 2011 at 02:00 PM  | 

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Biden Obama

I mentioned recently that broader polling pools favor Democrats, so when a big new poll of adults comes out from Gallup that shows Barack Obama to be in trouble, I take notice.

The facts: Gallup’s results are a three day rolling average of daily poll of 1,500 adults. Telephone poll, no mention given of mobile phone handling. MoE 3.

And the result for August 25-27 came up with the shocking result: Obama’s approval is at 38, while disapproval is up to 55, slightly worse than the 20-22 result of 38/54. For context, George W. Bush at the beginning of September 2008, September 8-11 was at 33 approval and 65 disapproval. Obama’s approval is only 5 points away from matching Bush at the very end of his Presidency, the month of Obama’s own electoral win.

So while it’s not yet appropriate to say that Obama has grown to be as unpopular as Bush, the trend just might take him there by election day 2012. Then again, it might reverse. But I don’t know offhand whether any President has managed to come back from figures this bad, to getting back in the black with approval above disapproval.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • johnt

    no, that can’t be it. The media is running out of excuses for their poor choice & their slimming of Republicans is falling flat? Could be.

  • gawken

    considering that more than 50% of blacks now DISAPPROVE of his handling of the economy..

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    As with any other force of nature, Obama too shall pass.

    As Joe B would put it, his polling is a Big F’ing Deal.
    The time for making excuses and blaming others is over. he has to account for his performance, leadership and results. Mene Mene Tekel Upsharin.

    We will have to pick up the destruction he leaves in his wake, so it won’t be soon enough to see him gone.

  • westcoastpatriette

    It’s as if he is cursed with stupidity mixed with complete tone-deafness. He can only perform when he is being adored and there is nothing left to adore.

  • rinowatch

    I’m wondering how the staunch support from the African-American community essentially gives Obama a built-in +8 and gave Bush a -8. If one were to set aside the anomalous static approvals/dis-approvals of that group, this would filter out a 16 point swing.

  • toothpick

    Usually the Progressives turn the Government Growth ratchet a little at a time. Slim majorities and other control mechanisms modulate this growth. Among other things, this gives the Progressives Plausible Deniability. “It’s not our fault growth is low / unemployment is high / etc., it’s because you didn’t let us enact our full agenda!”

    Naive voters buy this reasoning often enough to return Progressives to power, sometimes after a brief time-out.

    In 2008 the gears slipped, and Progressives took complete control. They went nuts with Stimulus, Obamacare, Financial Regulation, Environmental overreach – the whole nine yards. Predictably, the economy tanked. As usual, Progressives blamed their opponents. “Needed more stimulus!” “Time for Cap & Trade!” etc.

    This time around, fewer voters are naive enough to fall for this. So the blame-shifting isn’t working as well as usual.

    This is all remarkably similar to the country’s experience under FDR. FDR won re-election in part because he had mastery of the mass media (radio) and his opponents did not. (See “The Forgotten Man,” by Amity Shlaes.) Sites like redstate are front-and-center in our efforts to ensure that people are not fooled this time around.

  • congressworksforus

    The black vote was 11-13% of the electorate over the past three elections. Given that it went 90% or higher to the D each time that would mean its really a 10% swing.

    Of course, the flip side is that there is probably an opposite bias in the other direction as well, so none of this means much…

  • rinowatch

    Looking at poll swings over time for other groups, I do not see any “opposite bias” — only one group is so rock solid that they vary only from 85-95%

  • carolina

    among other ‘swell’ BO programs like the ‘stimulus’.
    I think BO REALLY just listens to Valerie Jarrett. Daley has obviously never gotten BO’s ear.
    Watching BO self-destruct would be entertaining, if he wasn’t hurting us all in the process. No wonder dems are starting to express a desire to replace BO. The dem party is going to be hurt for a long time by this bozo.

  • carolina

    among other ‘swell’ BO programs like the ‘stimulus’.
    I think BO REALLY just listens to Valerie Jarrett. Daley has obviously never gotten BO’s ear.
    Watching BO self-destruct would be entertaining, if he wasn’t hurting us all in the process. No wonder dems are starting to express a desire to replace BO. The dem party is going to be hurt for a long time by this bozo.

  • gregorysstewart

    Obama does not have to be as unpopular as a two term president who presides over the complete meltdown of the housing market. He just needs to be unpopular enough for a change in the next election.

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    -nt-

  • JimmyGee

    “Don’t notice the man behind the curtain, BHO is still the smartest man in the room, and the only adult in the room no matter what room he is in. Move along people nothing to see here.”

  • Adjoran

    but I think it was earlier in the year (1995), he hired Dick Morris and began to position himself to “triangulate” between liberal congressional Democrats and conservative congressional Republicans, went along with Welfare Reform to boost his independent cred, and benefited from a surging economy spurred by Republican budget hawking and a capital gains tax cut.

    Obama is incapable of changing course. It would amount to an admission he is imperfect, which the narcissist can never do. We need someone in the debates to ask him the “mistakes” question. He cannot accept even partial responsibility for anything (beyond the craven “I failed to explain my brilliant programs to you ignorant peasants”).

  • pttx333

    Excellent article from American Thinker.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/08/what_liberals_fear_more_than_obama_losing.html

  • repubnut

    This Socialistic Agenda of Obama has continued to push the Unitied States into a position that is hurting everyone,,Black,White,Jews,Women,Children,Retirees,Legal Immigrants,Rich,Poor,Our Education System–everyone and everything but his group of friends from Chicago who are getting richer by the day..His attack on Christians and Jews is un-believable…

  • swami7774

    …black voters still give The Big Zero an overwhelmingly high general approval rating.
    That’s what’s inflating his overall numbers. His true approval is probably somewhere around 33%.

  • tomaso11

    Similar polling numbers to President Bush after 100% negative press for President Bush and 100% positive, adulation for osamaobama?

  • popster

    survive the progressive/socialist quagmire, regardless of the rhetoric they try and force feed us.

  • Common_Cents

    He is wayyy too insecure. He’ll become more insular, angry and blaming.

    I can’t see him surviving a fair debate, so they will be rigged like you won’t believe. All canned questions. Wouldnt be surprised if obummer has a teleprompter with him.

  • patriciakelley

    The story line from the liberal media is that the Black community has an “overwhelmingly high general approval rating” towards Obama. Behind closed doors, Black voters are as disgusted as white liberals behind closed doors.