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All eyes turn to Rick Perry

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 2nd, 2011 at 06:30 PM  | 

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Attacks on Rick Perry, new Presidential candidate and sudden poll leader, have begun to mount. He will soon take the stage in a debate against the other candidates. His opponents in both parties are determined to leave a mark on him.

Let’s take a look at where he’s at as the pressure grows.

As I often did in 2010, and will do often in this cycle, I turn to Real Clear Politics for a list of recent polls. But I’m not interested in the top line numbers this time. Those have and continue to fluctuate. I’m interested in opinions of Rick Perry, to see whether his current numbers are likely to have staying power.

Quinnipiac polled 1185 Republicans (MoE 2.9), targeting both landlines and mobile phones. Rick Perry among Republicans came out with 44% having a favorable view of him, to 5% unfavorable. Contrast with Mitt Romney, who appears better known, but with triple the unfavorables at 57/14. Nobody else matches Perry. Not Michele Bachmann at 50/14, not Sarah Palin at 63/25. No Republican candidate or potential candidate matches Rick Perry for failing to be disliked.

Even among Democrats in the poll, Barack Obama managed a 10% unfavorability rating, vs Perry’s 5% among Republicans. This suggests to me that attacks still have not damaged Perry, and he is still at risk of dropping in the polls should a debate, television ad, or other attack expose something previously unknown about the Governor.

The story repeats in PPP’s poll of 663 “usual Republican primary voters,” MoE 3.8. No mention given of mobile phone or landline-only handling. Perry stands out at 64/17 to Romney’s 51/33, Bachmann’s 51/32, and Palin’s 62/30.

Rick Perry continues to lead for now, but is he actually just that much better liked among Republicans, or is there still some… vetting to do, to pull out one of the most overused words of the 2012 cycle to date?

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • http://whattoreadtoday.blogspot.com/ Paula

    I think he’s still under the radar to a lot of GOP voters and his lack of name recognition is reflected in these polls. I think of my 80-something neighbor who has never missed a primary vote in her life. She watches the MSM and reads our local newspaper which has had almost no news about Perry. It wouldn’t surprise me if she knows little or nothing about him at this point. Sometime before the primary she’ll call me to discuss the nominees and ask me for my recommendations, but at this point, if she got a call from a pollster, she’d say she doesn’t have a negative opinion about Perry simply because she hasn’t heard enough about him yet.

  • http://www.fpcr.org balloonjuice

    and many people are still looking for that “perfect” candidate — or nearly perfect candidate. Some are still waiting for Palin to get in; other Giulliani. What if Trump enters the race or there is a third party attempt in the mix? See, lots of unknowns at this point.

    It is still possible that Perry could flubb. But he’s not exactly new to the campaign trail. He has been governor of Texas since 2000 (the year some folks think Gore was elected president) and has been in public office since 1985 (since Reagan was president). The chances of a flub are pretty low.

    As far as “vetting” (the buzz-word this year for negative campaigning) is concerned, the Jones Clones have had their chance, the Paulistas have had their chance, and I’ll just about guarantee that the Obama crowd is out there sewer fishing right now. He is not squeaky clean in the sense of having no flaws. But KBH gave him a pretty thorough vetting 2 years ago and I’m guessing that no new skeletons will emerge.

  • ideasmatter

    And I can just imagine the motto now, “Vote perry/Gingrich, because slow socialism, is the new moderation.”

  • gekster

    it would be slow socialism.

  • acat

    it would be Gingrich.

    Doesn’t make sense using the old regional rules – Perry and Newt are both southern.

    Doesn’t make sense by bringing in a different ideological group – Perry’s got enough ties to both Tea Party and Establishment.

    Doesn’t even bring the squishy middle – they don’t have fond memories of Newt.

    All it does, to my mind, is to bring Perry a lot of baggage he doesn’t need.

    Mew

  • Scope

    So to speak, it is fair, balanced, and unafraid. There is “vetting” and then there is “vetting.” Vetting means to me that you bring out all of the “truthful” negatives against a candidate, and you rightly decide on those “truthful” negatives. There have been alot of “stories” out there against Perry, and much of those stories are misstatements, misconceptions, or contortions, of his record. This sure didn’t start since he announced, it started long before he announced. I see it as a very smart remove by Perry to ask Obama if he just hates Texas. Takes alot of the bluster out of their attacks on not only Perry, but also Texas.

    Perry right now is fighting the liberals, the trial lawyers, the Paulbots, the Palinistas, and the Bush/Rove establishment, and, he is still rising in the polls. As was stated in the diary, he has a high favoribility rating, which cannot be discounted, as compared to the other candidates.

    Perry/Rubio 2012

  • gekster

    why the socialism comment.
    How would Perry, or for that matter, Newterd, bring socialism on.
    There are problems with both to a point, but I don’t see socialisn as one.

  • gekster

    If you are not going to reply, then just don’t throw things out there.
    If you can’t back it up (and I’m not saying you can’t) then don’t say it.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Are we talking about the same Newt?

  • gekster

    and two, what makes Perry and Gingrich socialists.

  • gekster

    .

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    And selecting him would tell me Perry doesn’t have a clue.

  • gekster

    you still have not said what makes Perry and Gingrich a socialist.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    if he could convince you he could manage it better than Obama.

  • gekster

    and 2. What proof do you have that Gingrich would “tolerate” scialism.
    Give me a link where he tolerated or promoted anything that resembles socialism.

    The AGW thing doesn’t count, as that is flawed science and not socialism.

    And also tell me where Perry said he needed Gingrich, and provide links to Perrys’ socialist views.

  • acat

    You’re posting four apparent untruths.

    1) Gingrich is a socialist.
    2) Perry is a socialist.
    3) Perry needs Gingrich to push their socialism together.
    4) Perry and Gingrich can pull the wool over Red State’s eyes.

    I dispute all four and request that you provide citations proving that these are true. Otherwise, you can retract it and admit you maybe had a few too many, and were not posting in your right state of mind or something….

    Mew

  • pantera

    Palin’s at 62/30? How the Hell does that happen?

    With 50% of the Republican media,40% of the Republicans,100% of the obama approved media trying for 3 yrs to destroy Sarah personally,politically,legally,financially and she still at 62/30.

    She’s like a freaking Grizzly bear or something.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Perry’s not a socialist. Gingrich is not a socialist.

    But Gingrich would be content to merely manage the socialism that’s already been rammed down our throats.

    Gingrich, Huntsman, Romney, and Christie would be content to throw in with the very same EPA regs Obama pulled the plug on today, for political reasons, natch.

    Why hand Obama a ticket with an opponent he can run to the right of, as he did when he mocked McCain’s tax on health care benefits.

    Stop me if this gets too nuanced for y’all.

  • gekster

    “And I can just imagine the motto now, ?Vote perry/Gingrich, because slow socialism, is the new moderation.?”

    Implying that both are socialists.
    Your words, not mine.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Gingrich is completely unreliable as far as reversing enough of Obama’s damage to matter.

    If Palin is toxic, Gingrich is toxic.

    If Perry doesn’t get that, his bad.

  • gekster

    Perry/Gingrich?
    ideasmatter Friday, September 2nd at 8:07PM EDT (link)
    And I can just imagine the motto now, ?Vote perry/Gingrich, because slow socialism, is the new moderation.?

    It is upthread.
    And this is not a reply to, it is an open comment.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    n/t

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    unless he gets talked into coutring the mythical moderates by flirting with Newt/Romney/Huntsman or their ilk as veep, or some some silly overture to a Republican poser in the northeast.

  • gekster

    It seams I am a toatal idiot, and “must” extend my apologise.

    Your reply:
    Gingrich would be content to manage socialism, not actually reverse it
    usdebateboard Friday, September 2nd at 9:53PM EDT (link)
    And selecting him would tell me Perry doesn?t have a clue.

    Led me to believe I was talking to someone else when replying to you.
    It IS mybad, and I am sorry.

  • paulnashtn

    Just for fun I wonder who y?all think Perry would make his VP ? not who you wish but the most likely, I believe the Mitt would almost certainly pick Rubio as he is the perfect balance to Mitt, he is very conservative and charismatic, Romneys weak points.
    But Perry, HE is conservative and charismatic, so maybe Rubio would be like doubling down. My thoughts, either Pawlenty or Christie

  • Adjoran

    Her numbers among independents are far upside down.

  • Adjoran

    Christie might be shaky on life issues.

    Kasich would also be a short list candidate, having served several terms in the House, and being the Budget Chairman who actually tried and succeeded in balancing the budget (deserves more credit than Clinton, certainly), and now as Governor of Ohio.

  • barleycorn

    acting as hall monitor you wouldn’t get so confused.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m looking at numbers among Republicans to gauge long-run prospects of being the nominee.

  • Carol Tarasewicz

    Rick Perry won reelection last year despite the Bushies endorsing KBH as governor. If there was any dirt on him, I think Karl Rove would have aired it. The only thing I have seen is an article in a TX newspaper trying to get into the Bush/Perry problems. No one would cite an incident when they used named sources.

    We will have to watch how Perry perfroms in debates.

  • rightwingmom52

    here

    I have reservations about Christie, but his pro life record isn’t one of them any longer.

  • rememberthealamo

    What does Rubio bring Perry since they’re both conservative and from the south? It’s not about Region. Rubio will be a bridge to Hispanics in all areas; Cuban Americans in FL, Puerto Rican Americans in NYC, Mexican Americans across the Southwest.

    The Gov of NM is a Latina who could also do the same, and also reach out to women. But NM really is too close to Texas in many ways.

    Hispanics in general are family oriented and anti abortion. They would fit well in the Republican Party in many ways. We need to find ways to reach out that steps past illegal immigration.

    What about a female VP – other than Palin or Bachmann. They really don’t offer anything Perry doesn’t already have. Kelly Ayote of NH? Lord, please not Snow or Collins or Rino Lisa.

  • acat

    in that it would encourage people to shop around, instead of accepting what the company offers – while encouraging civic groups (churches etc.) to look into doing group buying as an added benefit to membership.

    I’d be happy to have McCain’s tax on benefits instead of Obamacare.

    What you’re saying, then, is that Gingrich won’t reduce the size of government, i.e. he’s a Statist – a person who thinks government is the solution. Eh, Newt’s been marinating in D.C. too long, and I think at this point you may be right.

    Perry, on the other hand, I don’t buy as a Statist.

    Mew

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    in his commitment to roll back the last four years of damage Obama has done if he feels he has to “reach out” to moderates by nominating a less-of-the-same veep like Newt or Romney or Huntsman.

    McCain’s tax on benefits was a lousy campaign strategy. It allowed Obama to run to the right of him on health care by mocking it (albeit lying, natch).

    Same way Bush 41′s tax increases opened the door for Clinton run to Bush’s right and lie about tax cuts in 1992. You merely hand the left *your* issue when you surrender it thus.

    I like Perry because I don’t think Obama could run to the right of him on virtually *anything*. That’s what spells doom for Republicans in POTUS elections.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    and hope he realizes he can’t wait four more years to do his part to save his country.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Lefties didn’t oppose it on its face, but got away with some faux conservative stand deriding it for not being paid for. It was a ruse – they spent the next four years running up $5T in spending they could not pay for – but they got away with running to the right on an extension of Medicare benefits, of all things.

  • pttx333

    This is a good article from American Thinker that dissects the claims that Perry is sympathetic to Islam. The author has done a lot of research and concludes that the claims are unfounded.

  • pttx333

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/09/governor_perrys_islam_connection.html

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    local perry hater, or a Ronulan. His comment was meaningless

  • trutexan

    when he’s trying to be something he is not. But if he will embrace his off-the-cuff style of banter and comebacks instead of listening to “the pros” who usually school politicians on debate techniques, then he will win the hearts and minds of the American public. His Texas no-nonsense style will win every time as long as he is up on the issues, which I believe he is.

  • gekster

    acting as hall monitor.
    If someone makes a claim as to a potential or actual candidate,
    (Perry is a socialist, in this case),
    I would like to know if that claim is true.
    I would also like to know if said claim is just crap thrown against the wall to see if it sticks.

    My fault was not in paying attention to who I was replying to, which happened when a second person implied Perry was a socialist.

    As far as the hall monitor thing, I am sure Neil would let me know if I was invading his territory.

  • jaydickb

    both Perry and Gingrich are statists, as were both Bushes. Both have favored government intervention in free markets, both have favored government intervention to “help people” beyond the basic safety net. At this point though, the ability to beat Obama should be the primary criterion on which candidates are judged. Any announced or rumored Republican would be a vast improvement over Obama. In another four years under Obama, the country will be in very bad shape and may never recover.

  • acat

    At this point, it’s all conjecture and wishful thinking.

    I agree with most of what you’re saying, including that Rubio is the gold standard for veep this cycle. I like him, he’s an amazing speaker, and .. if I had to say a current politician communicates as well as Reagan, it’d be him.

    That said, I do not think Rubio is the only possible veep this cycle. Rubio is not needed based on the geographic model – Florida is not going to vote Dem; I also think it’s premature to pull him out of the Senate, where we’re going to need conservatives the most – especially if Rand Paul goes off the reservation.

    Rubio does, as you say, reinforce the – to use an old term – rock-ribbed nature of whatever ticket he’s on, as far as conservatism… but he can also turn it down and leave us with Perry/Martinez or Perry/Cain or Perry/Pawlenty without doing the kind of long-term harm that Reagan/Bush did… in part because Rubio would be in the Senate.

    As for the examples you cited below – George W. Bush was not a conservative.

    Mew

  • pineros

    Perry is no better than the under the table boys in Washington, no matter how loudly he claims to be outside the beltway politics…
    and you think he would make it through the scrutiny of an election??

    http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Did-Perry-contributor-earmark-contribution-2154312.php

  • powertothepeople

    Pretty pathetic.

  • acat

    Guilt by innuendo, no legal finding of fault, and a whole bunch of “so and so is connected to so and so” which – hate to break it to you – is true for any politician.

    Scratch Romney’s campaign, you’ll find mega-donors and shady deals. Scratch Palin, same thing.

    The only thing you haven’t proven here is that Perry has existing ties to the D.C. money crowd and .. to borrow from Erick.. at this point, they’re more worried that Perry will win, because he’ll bring his own people in, and they’ll be out.

    Mew

  • APA Guy

    …very weak sauce.

  • EricB

    win Ohio, which is critical to winning the election. He’s also been a legislator before. I’d support that pick.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Thinking this through;

    Perry has been “vetted” in Texas for years now. Anyone even tangentially aware of that states’ political process, knows the examination was pretty thorough. Nonetheless, I expect some of the old negative themes to come out; oh, and some new eyeball popping rage like Malkin’s Gardasil rant.

    Yes, the greater US is not Texas- but it sure seems a pretty sizable majority want to be them. So net-net, I think Perry comes out very well positioned based on his record and experience.

    I expect Romney will try to undermine Perry with cloakroom rumors and anonymous, third-party leaks to the press. The mane-man did it to McCain and I expect no less underhandedness this time with somewhat higher stakes.

    So Perry really gets his national introduction vis a vis’ the debates. No doubt, as the real frontrunner he will get the barbs from other candidates. Especially Romney who has ridiculously tried to ride the “career politician” theme on Perry. It won’t work and I can’t wait for Perry’s response.

    So Magic 8 Ball Neil, where do you see Perry and Romney polling on month from now?

  • Scope

    In a speech in NH yesterday Perry reiterated his position that he is not in favor of a fence along the border. For so many years we’ve all heard “build the fence, build the fence” and then we can talk about the illegal immigration problem.

    If I’m not mistaken Palin’s position on the illegal issue is that we need to secure the borders, and then consider an amnesty plan.

    I’ve been screaming for a fence for a long time as well. That was until I started reading about the many tunnels being discovered dug deep underground by the drug cartels, complete with electricity, air conditioning etc. There is an article with photographs taken of one of the tunnels. The article states that there are at least 25 tunnels discovered being built under the borders.

    Perry said yesterday that we can build a fence 30 feet high, and that the illegals will just build a 32 foot ladder. That’s true enough, but, what good does an above ground fence do, when they are now coming in from down below?

    I’m alright with Perry on this. I do want him to find another way of stopping the illegals coming in though. He has been asking for National Guard troops along the border, but what happens when the let out on this side is in CA, and they have no intentions of stopping the flow.

  • izoneguy

    If the US wanted a fence to work – they would need to electrify it.
    Make it a double fence with landmines in between them.
    The UN would go bonkers if we did that.
    A Berlin type wall with armed turrets every 100 yards…
    Now I wonder how much that would cost???
    The border patrol is outmanned and outgunned.
    They do what they can but are overwhelmed.
    The Obama administration encourages illegal immigration and then
    the people that don’t like Rick Perry bash him for not doing
    anything. Arizona tries to do something and gets sued by
    Obama. Obama’s solution is to let guns walk into Mexico to create
    havoc & encourage people to flee Mexico.

  • Scope

    In addition to the fence not working, as I pointed out, they are crafty devils and are finding their way in via underground also.

    While I could care less what the UN wants or not, I do think Perry would tell them where to get off if the fence really did work. Perry doesn’t like the UN. I say that the only good idea coming out of Obama is that he did ask if we wanted to build a moat along with aligators. Too bad he wasn’t serious, it’s the only good idea he’s ever had.

    Can I make a special request and ask if you would post this video over at Romney4Pres hit piece on Perry.

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Perry is wrong on the fence.

    First, the serious proposals are NOT to build 700 miles of fence, but about 70 miles in Texas:
    http://www.mauricesherif.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Texas-Border-Fence-Map-II1.jpg

    Now if he supports that, fine. Does he?

    Second: Of course anybody can get around a fence. Any security can be defeated. But an actively guarded fence can keep out the flood of illegal border crossers and turn it into a manageable trickle. Fences are a lot cheaper than manpower over the long-run.

    Yes, they DO work:
    “since the triple fence was finished in October, there has been a 72 percent decline in illegal migrant apprehensions in the 120-mile swath of the US-Mexican border known as the Yuma sector. Eight hundred people used to be apprehended trying to cross the border here every day. Now, agents catch 50 people or fewer daily.

    The 1.5-mile strip of triple fencing that cuts through suburban San Luis is the most impenetrable, says Bernacke.”
    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2008/0401/p01s05-usgn.html

    ” what good does an above ground fence do, when they are now coming in from down below?” It takes a lot of effort to dig a tunnel, and very little effort to uncover it and stop it.

    On the minus side, Perry has been against E-verify. On the plus side, Perry this year signed the voter ID bill and supported a bill to outlaw sanctuary cities.

    Immigration was a failing of the Bush administration, is a failing in the Obama administration. We should not let it be a failing in the next administration.

  • Scope

    According to this article Perry supports “strategic fencing” and the national guard troops to prevent illegal immigration and violence from Mexican drug cartels. Why is it not a surprise that the AP left that out of their article.

    I don’t know if the strategic fencing is the same 70 miles of fencing that you refer to or not. I fully support his initiative to put national guard troops on the border to act as a fence, or in some cases to be the double protection in the worst areas.

    Freedoms Truth, in all honesty, Perry’s biggest problem is going to be with illegal immigration. There are many that believe in Tom Tancredos approach of, as Bill S put it at one time, seems he wants to shoot the illegals as they cross. I know I’ve read that Perry does not support amnesty, but, I’m going to venture out to doing a little more research on the immigration topic with Perry.

  • Scope
  • mikeymike143

    bachmann. that being said, a lot of the attacks i see on perry are just silly. he is certainly one of the better candidates in the field. and to me a paulbot criticizing rick perry on issues is like a high school basketball player criticizing the jump shot of michael jordan.

    i still think michele bachmann is a true conservative in every sense of the word and is going to surprise some people come primary time.

    but if the final ticket ended up as perry/bachmann i think that locks you at 270. michele is strong in the midwest and brings you tea party support. perry will carry the south.

    and yes i am aware rubio is everyones choice of VP. but i think a strong showing by michele in the republican primary gives her the number two spot.