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Gallup: Romney gaining from Bachmann?

GOP

The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.

Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.

Facts of the September poll real quick: 439 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, MoE 6. August’s poll had an MoE of 4 for the Republican subsample, using mobile and landline phones.

Obviously there are other explanations for these movements from August to September, but just look:

Candidate August September Differential
Rick Perry 29 31 +2
Mitt Romney 17 24 +7
Ron Paul 13 13 0
Michele Bachmann 10 5 -5

Certainly it might just be a coincidence that a large jump in one candidate is paired with a large drop for another candidate. Half of Michele Bachmann’s prior support might have just become undecided, while a third of Mitt Romney’s present support may have jumped on board the anyone-but-Perry train.

However Romney’s shift is outside of the 95% confidence interval, and Bachmann’s is barely inside, meaning it’s rather unlikely that either is just random noise instead of a real shift. The only question is whether the real movements are linked.

It’s not inconceivable for one of the popular TEA party women to see her backers favor Romney as a second choice. When we look at the August poll with and without Sarah Palin, the removal of Palin’s 11% gives 4% to Perry, 3% to Romney, 2% to Paul, and 3% to Bachmann (obviously figures are rounded and do not sum neatly). Add in the fact that Bachmann has made harsh attacks specifically on Perry over Gardasil, and Bachmann’s supporters going anyone-but-Perry I find to be plausible.

For a while there I broke up the GOP field into three tiers: Perry/Romney, Paul/Bachmann, and the rest. However as Bachmann continues to fall below the Pauldoza line, I think she soon will be indistinguishable in the polling from the rest of the field.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

COMMENTS

  • YnotNOW

    To reach that conclusion, you would have to get some statistical information (randomized interviews, for example) that show a significant number of “former Bachman supporters” who now “support Romney”.

    Without that, the argument is pretty weak.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Or did you merely read the title then race to make your comment first, without reading to see all the qualifiers I added?

    Lazy, lazy, lazy. But I’m sure you feel good about yourself for it.

  • Scope

    I find it hard to believe that Romney is gaining from Bachmann’s fall in the polls. It seemed that many of the Paul supporters, who were not married to him, were choosing Bachmann as an alternate candidate, as Bachmann seems to have spent time pandering to the libertarian wing of the Tea Party, especially with those that think any federal involvement with vaccinations is evil, which is Ron Paul’s position. I believe that many Paul supporters have realized that he is not going to win the nomination because of his wackiness or because he is too old.

    It is hard to believe that many of the Bachmann supporters would go to a known moderate, who stands by Romneycare, when Bachmann’s constant mantra has been that she will get rid of Obamacare. That doesn’t seem to make sense.

    There is also the perception now that Bachmann has chosen the wrong hill to die on with her at times fraudulent attacks against Perry, and Merck with the charges of the drug causing mental retardation. I would think that her support is falling mainly for those over the top charges. How would that benefit Romney? Santorum, in some polls has now dropped from a pretty steady 2 to a one, most likely for the same reason with his pile on at the last debate.

    Palin is being removed by many pollsters, as is Guiliani as there is no indication that they will enter the race. I would also find it more than a little interesting if Palin’s supporters went for Romney, as Palin has been considered by some, as the only true conservative in the race, whatever true conservative means. No one has accused Romney of being a conservative. On the contrary, he has proudly taken up the mantle as the party moderate.

    Something doesn’t make sense.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Palin’s support tends to scatter.

    It seems to me that Perry gained so much support so quickly that, if you’re not behind him already, there’s probably a strong reason you’re not with him. Either a reason to dislike Perry or a reason to think your candidate can win.

    So the remaining Palin, Bachmann, etc. backers probably hate Rick Perry, in my estimation, leading to that anyone-but-Perry theory of backing Romney.

    Can’t be sure, but there are only so many interpretations of the numbers we’re seeing. Post-Gardasil we’re seeing movement.

  • YnotNOW

    for making the first post on a Neil diary a less-than-positive. Took the risk.
    Yes, your post noted the “certainly it might be a coincidence” angle. But your evidence based upon the with-vs-without Palin poll was pretty weak support. In case, what is the point of your diary?

    Sorry to be playing the skeptic here, but I thought it was warranted.

  • YnotNOW

    “In which case”

    (note: I see Scope shares my skepticism below)

  • Scope

    on Thursday. It seems that Perry has been trying to play it carefully at the debates, and to just maintain his lead. So many have warned that the real Perry is too crass or bold with comments like treason and ponzi. Others have been clamoring for him to bring his strong Texas take no prisoners style. I’d actually prefer that he fight it out, in a manner that proves that he can’t be boxed in or bossed around by the moderators or other candidates. I personally believe that that is what many are waiting for. Time for him to take of the gloves and go for it.

    Those that have a problem with his immigration positions are going to have their heads exploding as he is doing a fundraiser in NY tonight, as is Obama. Perry is being hosted by the head of the Taxi Assoc. or something like that, who happens to be hispanic, and is expected to take in 50 to 100 thousand from the event. The guy said he is squarely behind Perry, and I’m sure he can bring much of the NY hispanic vote with him. Perry got 38% of the hispanic vote in his last election. The hispanics are dropping away from Obama big time. Perry can conceiveably gain much of the large hispanic population in votes. The immigration issue is very low on the priorities list, and the economy and job creating take up all that oxygen. I don’t think that Perry will fall from the skies in a thunderous bolt of dislike. Don’t know the numbers of Palin or Bachmann supporters, but if Perry picks up a good portion of the hispanic vote, the ladies supporters will not make much difference.

    Sorry for going on.

  • Scope

    “blow back.” It has a very specific meaning, attached to a very specific candidate. It has no place in conservative conversations. Thank you.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • Aaron Gardner

    You showed nothing and then tried to take a swipe at Neil for defending his work.

    That’s what I would consider weak.

  • beach91

    says it all for me!

    “Perry has intensity on his side, however. Seven in 10 of his supporters say they’re more enthusiastic than usual about voting in 2012, while just under half of Romney’s supporters are energized.”

    I am not sure of why the numbers moved exactly the way they did and I would like to see the Gallup info such they have from the August poll. But the bump to Perry indicates real strength and I think Romney is still benefiting from name recognition??

  • gracie

    Actually Neil, I think the Tea Party folks have a LOT of undecideds still in our ranks. Ex…here in my little corner of Texas ( where the TTC was due to go through!) we are very active, showed up opening day of the legislature, watched, emailed our Rep about legislation. But…many are still in mourning still hoping for Paul Ryan and Pence, one is for Paul, Cain, many were for Bachmann, ironically NONE ever for Palin.

    But none for Romney! E-ver . If there is anybody we know it is Rick Perry. We have watched and dealt with him for eons. Only three of us jumped immediately on the band wagon. Of course we three are of superor intellect:: not only on seeing at the Big Picture but also in giving him a fair shake on Gardasil facts, etc. The others will come along because we believe in supporting the winner of the primary against Obama.

    My point of course is there are many folks who would be pegged as undecided but who will vote for Perry. That is great news!

    So you won’t see our stats above. But you can bet your life that we are going to back the most conservative candidate.

  • powertothepeople

    blow back associated with Ron “nutjob” Paul? Is that in reference to his traitorous comment in the 07 SC debate when ole Rudy tore him a new one?

    Just wondering……..

  • clintonformccain

    I don’t think Bachmann ever had any real supporters, other than as a “placeholder” while waiting to see if other teavangical-approved candidates jumped into the race.

    I always viewed her candidacy as one of those “build the brand for down the road” type deals.

    She was never a plausible nominee and pretending otherwise was just poor analysis.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Your substance-free blathering would get tiresome, except I’m right now sitting here getting a laugh at your expense, sharing just how lazy and ill-informed your commenting is with a friend.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But watch out, YnotNOW is going to read your comment title and argue against you, without bothering to read your whole comment.

  • beach91

    clintonformccain. I think Bachman’s numbers were higher cause Romney was not what people wanted. The pile on of Perry from Bachman (and Santorum) in the debate was so shrill it made me nauseous. I think the numbers are showing that.

  • Right Reason

    Bachman and Perry were in competition for the right side of the primary vote. Human nature being what it is, the campaign inevitably devolves into a contest. While all are ostensibly evaluating the candidates to determine those who would prove the best candidate, both on the issues and the likelihood of winning, very few can maintain this pursuit as an academic exercise – witness the current acrimony on this board with regard to the Romney and Perry camps

    The fact that Perry and Bachman were competing from the same point of reference would make Perry somewhat the “enemy” in the eyes of the Bachman supporters. Bachman’s recent remarks undoubtedly cost her some of her support. Those supporters who have left Bachman can be expected to still retain the “not Perry” protion of their Bachman support and thus gravitate to Romney. I would guess that in the coming weeks, this support would move toward Perry as the “not Perry” wears off and the conservative principles take over.

    That’s about the extent of my armchair psychology. I’m going to save this post in case what I said comes to pass. If it does, please be prepared for my extensive gloating. If it does not, this whole thing is just a typo.

  • wonkish1

    I’ve seen this first hand with a lot of people and it will make sense to a lot of folks on here.

    A lot of the surge in the polls for Perry after he announced, but before his first debate were people that thought he was the “most likely to beat Obama” vote. After the debates some of that vote shifted back towards Romney and it is being replaced by Bachmann voters giving up on her campaign.

    So its Bachmann >>>to>>> Perry >>>to>>> Romney. And that will give you the numbers where Bachmann’s down, Perry’s flat, and Romney’s gaining. This also means that while Perry is flat his support is should growing more conservative(gaining more conservative voters and equally losing more moderate voters).

  • Scope

    Ron Paul cannot buy this space.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    because the rest of their message is pretty much out of gas and they hope you don’t notice.

  • Shaggy_DA

    From August 4-7 has Perry 17 and Romney 24 which would indicate that Perry is taking from the other candidates (primarily Bachmann) while Romney has remained unchanged.

    See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

    Unless of course the poll I’m looking at is not an equivalent to the one released today.

    Any insight on that Neil?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I find it hard to read into the polling before Perry announced. Perry obviously got a boost when he actually entered the race, as Perry had much lower name recognition than a Romney or a Palin.

  • Shaggy_DA

    the Gallup daily polls referenced from today’s results (indicating Perry 29/Romney17) were significantly different methodology/sample from the earlier USAT branded poll prior to Perry’s announcement.

  • tyman

    Right Reason, I think you’re right. As others have said, to suggest that a genuine Bachmann supporter would go to Romney?

    I think that it’s just being upset at Perry for getting in the race and stealing Bachmann’s thunder, and after that’s over with the supporters will see the err of their ways.

    Some of it may be that Perry’s newness has worn off in some folks’ eyes. Just because he’s not the game show contestant in a debate doesn’t mean that he isn’t methodical and win where and when it counts, and I think that will come to light.

    When Perry really starts hitting Romney on what Romneycare has done and some of Romney’s other flip flops, it will become more apparent who the nominee should be (Romney’s line about not believing Obama when he said that Romneycare was the basis for Obamacare is a great punchline).

    I still say that if Romney couldn’t get the nomination over John McCain, does he actually stand a chance against Perry?

  • Scope

    The independents are, well, an independent lot, and they change daily depending on which way the winds are blowing. I saw an article posted a week or so ago just claiming that the independents are now leaning in the Romney direction. No info. about who was polled, or what party they identified as. Of course the liberal independents will break for Romney. If you take all of the polling over the last year or so, most are self-identifying as conservative, and the liberals have taken a major hit. The abortion and same sex marriage polling has also indicated that at least many are on the side of the traditional social issues. Many more so than will go for Romney the moderate, who has taken both positions, sometimes at the same time.

    Perry will gain back the independents, I have no doubt. The field is readjusting now with taking Palin out of many of the polls, Bachmann is crashing, and even with the gardasil issue Perry is retaining his lead. Perry came in with a big bang, and removed Romney from a pedestal he held for several months. I suspect that the more narrow lead for Perry is much more realistic as Perry’s warts are now being aired, while Romney’s have been out there for years. When one considers Romney’s Romneycare, Global Warming support, and ethanol sussidy support, Perry’s warts will pale in comparison.

    By the way I read today that Rollins said that Bachmann doesn’t have the money to get beyond Iowa. I say she won’t have the money to even get to Iowa. Once she folds, and shuts her mouth with her false allegations against Perry, hopefully people will have a more honest look at him and Romney. Then again, Romney can afford to keep her campaign going in order to help him, as he knows Bachmann is no longer any threat to him.

  • papabear

    Almost every (R) candidate is/was better than Romney (Ron Paul being the exception). Once Perry joined, we finally had a viable candidate.

    Is he ideal?

    No.

    However, he voluntarily advocates for most of the things I believe in. That feels a hell of a lot better than how I felt when I had to hold my nose in ’08!!

  • earlgrey

    How do we have so much conservative enthusaism without a list of preidential candidates to match.

    I really don’t like Romney. I can’t see us getting the change in direction that is needed with him in charge. He has no principles.

  • wonkish1

    The original diary floated the idea that Bachmann’s support is going to Romney. As many have pointed out on here that isn’t very believable.

    What is much more believable is that:
    1) Perry announces and takes a huge chunk from Bachmann and “the barely Romney” vote, and the rest spread across a few other candidates.
    2) After the announcement wears off Bachmann continues to lose support, but some of those “barely Romney” votes that Perry got, go back to Romney
    3) Net result Bachmann>>>Perry>>>Romney. Perry maintains his lead but doesn’t move, Bachmann falls, and Romney gains. This is a temporary occurrence.
    4) It is quite likely that those same votes that switched from Romney, to Perry, back to Romney, could go right back to Perry again.
    5) Bachmann will still lose support and it will go to Perry and I doubt anymore of Perry’s vote will go to Romney so those increases should net Perry instead of this “two way shift” that has been going on.

    None of what I just said, is anything negative about Perry or his chances, or his ability to win independent Republican primary voters. Its just a statement of what most likely has transpired over the last few weeks. My explanation is a lot easier to believe than Bachmann support going to Romney.

  • tyman

    I just read a column about Obama facing a primary challenge. It quoted Ralph Nader, off all people, and in the column (doing this from memory), it mentioned that if Obama faces a challenger this would expose faults.

    I agree with Scope about Perry’s warts paling in comparison to Romney. I’ve said that the quicker we pick a nominee the better. Case in point: last Monday night when Bachmann was not completely truthful and attacked Perry seemingly out of desperation. Other than weeding herself out of the race, what good did Michele Bachmann do? I have no doubt that the media will bring all these things up, just not in the atmosphere of a debate where someone only gets half a second to defend themselves.

    How about what Rick Santorum did? He didn’t help himself out, either, and he went after the possible nominee with verve and vigor that should be left up to Obama and the libs in the general.

    I was so glad to see Newt and Cain above the fray…not because the others were attacking Perry, but because the process shouldn’t be to give ammunition to the enemy on issues that don’t matter and there’s far more to them than just a soundbyte.

  • Xasteius

    even as VP. He’d be a nice balance to Perry (my 2 cents).

  • wonkish1

    Throughout the late 90s and 2000s many good conservatives fell out of love with politics. And didn’t seek higher office. It left a lot of professional politicians in higher office and not those inspiring authentic candidates that primary voters and the general electorate go for in Presidential elections.

    Add in the fact that our governorship’s and senator bench was decimated in 06 and 08. Many of the GOP governorships and senators left were people that had been there for decades.

    Furthermore, scandal took out 2 of our best prospects. Gov. Mark Sanford from South Carolina and Senator George Allen of Virginia who given the alternatives were both better than your average GOP senator or governor. And had enough experience in office.

    2010 came to late to replenish our bench with a bunch of awesome candidates. Nobody wanted to go from being just elected to immediately running for president so that bench stayed out.

    Daniels’ wife doesn’t like the lack of privacy and mobility that comes with being in politics and so she didn’t want a run.

    Christie was only in office 1 year before the 2010 group so he came to the conclusion many of the 2010 group did.

    So when I sat down several months ago and looked at who was actually holding an elected office(preferably governor) that would make sense Governor Perry was the only name that kept on coming up that wasn’t yet among the people “thinking about it”. So that prediction ended up coming true.

  • Scope

    conservative candidates is that the vote gets split between so many that the moderate wins.

    In the 2010 5th district House race against Perriello there were 7 R candidates running. 6 of them were conservative to varrying degrees, including one Paul type candidate. They had varying degrees of experience and resumes. Not one of them would drop out, and hung to the bitter end. The most moderate Robert Hurt, recruited by Cantor with his Young Guns program won the race. No one would get behind the most, or best conservative and the vote was very split.

    I consider all of the candidates running to be conservatives other than Romney and Huntsman. They mostly just don’t have the experience that many want and need after the president on training wheels.

  • Xasteius

    When Ron Paul says you’re nuts, that ‘s something.

  • traversecityconservative

    I’m a tea party person, a 912-er, a Herman Cain supporter. A Sarah Palin fan. Never in my wildest imagination did I think I’d ever consider Romney as who I would vote for because of Romneycare. However, you compare him to Perry and all you have to not like is Romneycare. You look at Perry and there’s a whole lot more not to like. I don’t like his plastic smile when people are dissing him, I don’t like him taking notes when others are talking (really? you need to write down notes about what you feel in your heart? Bachmann does this too). I really don’t like his in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. And there is more…

    And then it came to me the other day. Which of them would be able to hold their own against Obama in a debate – well that narrows it down to Romney and Gingrich. I’m in Michigan so I get to sit through a few primaries and see how the winds are blowing. But if it’s down to who I think it’s down to…Perry, Romney, Bachmann and Paul…you bet your you-know-what I’ll be voting for Romney.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    (Am I old if your username rings a bell of a movie I haven’t seen but know exists? :)

    Looks the same. MoE 4 for adults, probably MoE 6 for the GOP subsample.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Well, there’s no guarantee the Senate will flip in 2012. Whether it does or not, the only thing worse than dragging the House and Senate leadership kicking and screaming to the right would be dragging an unprincipled Repubilcan POTUS kicking and screaming to the right.

    Republicans controlled the White House and both houses of Congress from 2001-2007, and they put the pedal to the metal on the Ownership Society, dropped the ball on illegal immigration and dropped a brand new, badly funded Medicare entitlement out of the sky.

    And George Bush did a much better conservative head fake than Romney ever could.

  • wonkish1

    So you didn’t do anything to reinforce Neil’s thesis that its Bachmann supporters moving to Romney.

    You reinforced a potential move of Cain supporters to Romney. That isn’t whats being talked about.

  • onemovoter

    CBS seems to have done a poll themselves.

    CBS News Poll

    There is much more data listed in this poll but the numbers pretty much lined up the USA Today, except more people are included. Newt has actually bumped up a few points but hasn’t broken from the 2nd grouping.

    If you’d like to see what Hotair is trending, people seem to be a bit more conservative than the general public that is polled in the other.

    Hotair post debate poll results

    Overall it does seem Bachmann has gone boom boom, and people are moving around away from that. My hunch is that Perry is letting his opponents show their real stripes. He’s been able to get Bachmann to explode.

    Next is getting Romney to show his technocrat ways that have led Romney to be known as the liberal elitist North East Republican. This will lock Romney into the same smaller group of GOP primary voters that prefer that kind of GOP. Ron Paul will stick to the 10% and no higher.

    I do agree though that Perry will need to better explain his immigration policies that he’s had and will have. That is hurting him more than the SS issue. However Perry has large support from Hispanics and the 18-29 age demographic which helped Obama in his last election.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Whoah.

    If you had th name three things that have kept this country flat on its back for three years, Obamacare would have to be on that list.

    Do you think Romney can sell Americans on the notion that his mandates are more benevolent than Obama’s mandates? Can he debate Obama on that “from the heart” if he doesn’t believe it?

  • onemovoter

    For some reason RS is replacing links I post with RS links instead.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20107593-503544.html

    http://hotair.com/archives/2011/09/16/hot-air-post-debate-poll-results/

    Lets see if these show up correctly. I even made sure the links were correct.

  • wonkish1

    I think its obvious that Perry making it clear that he’s going hard after the Latino vote in the general. And he’s not going to give his Obama ammunition on that front so he’s just going to duck, dodge, deflect, and justify his way through the primary. Which is a smart move.

  • Right Reason

    . . .if I remember the movie vividly?

  • gekster

    You say:
    I think its obvious that Perry making it clear that he?s going hard after the Latino vote in the general.

    Just asking, what do you have to support that.
    As far as I know, Perry has stated that at the federal level they should enforce the laws on the books, and I havn’t heard nothig much past that.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    But if Perry intends to sell Latinos that he will give them more goodies and faster than Obama, that’s a debate he can’t win.

    Is that what it would take to get “the Latino vote?”

    Shazam.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    n/t

  • wonkish1

    Not backing off his decision to offer in state tuition to children of illegal immigrants. Furthermore, providing a very convincing argument as to why that could be applied to numerous other areas.

    His decision to not agree with a border fence.

    Hey look its smart. He know’s that “immigration first and only” voters already don’t like him.. And one of the problems with those voters holding up his record on the issue is that they wont believe him even if he does sing a very, very strong on immigration tune. So why try to reverse himself on the issue when they wont believe him anyway.

    Its much smarter to just not apologize for those decisions and let folks that care about other issues or the “whole package” to carry him through the nomination.

    You know I’ll bet he his probably personally more conservative on the immigration issue than he was in Texas and will be in this campaign. But saying that aloud nets him 0 in the primary and could potentially cost him votes in the general so why do it? If he truly is very conservative issue on the issue then the smart thing to do from his perspective is to just show everybody that after he’s elected.

    So either way you look at it. If he’s conservative on the issue, keep mouth shut. If he’s the opposite on the issue, keep mouth shut. If he’s something in between, keep mouth shut. It doesn’t matter what his position is, his positions on other issues should carry him through the primary so why say anything, but stand by his previous positions?

  • wonkish1

    He looks vastly more likely to pick a Hispanic nominee than Romney is with either Rubio or Martinez.

    He’ll also continue with the recent(should be obvious) trend of running your ads in Spanish in various areas. A good jobs ad should play just as well in New Mexico as in Ohio.

    And then just not give Obama and Univision anything they can use against him to get the Hispanic community to turn against him.

    He does those things and he should be able to win the Hispanic vote with out to much effort.

  • gekster

    If I kinda squint.
    I just thought you might have heard something that I might have missed.
    But yours is a unique way of looking at it, and it might work.
    Maybe. we’ll see.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Would you?

    I believe Rubio would not think that.

    That would tell me Perry is serious about kicking some liberal a**.

    I only hope, if asked, Rubio would realize this country can’t wait four years or eight years for what he is uniquely qualified do at a national level, and accept.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Caramba.

  • wonkish1

    I think he’s probably the most articulate and impressive Republican elected to high office in the country. He brings more things to the table than you can count.

    But you cannot completely discount that “other factor”. And the truth is that I think its shameless that a lot of people still vote based on identity politics…choosing a person based on the fact that they are, “black like me”, “latino like me”, “a women like me”, “a catholic like me”, etc.

    So look I would never recommend picking a person because of a benefit like that. But I think given all those identity voters out there its fair to consider it as a piece in the calculation.

  • tankertodd

    Don’t know what you said to tick off the writer either. The post doesn’t back up the premise of the article, which is just a tease to get you to read it. An analogous post could ask how one can get a 7. Could have easily said 2+5=7, or 3+4, or even 1+6.

    “Be respectful, or be banned.”

  • californiagold

    No other way to say it.

    Although the media would love to sell a long drawn out horserace between Perry and Romney, the polls show Perry with a comfortable lead among primary voters. Basically, it’s Perry’s race to lose….

    Ironically, reading some of the polling data closely suggests that Ron Paul is taking away support from Romney. If Ron Paul continues to hold 13% going into the New Hampshire primary, that would be a bad news for Romney and great news for Perry. If Perry can surpass expectations in New Hampshire, there’s a good chance he raps up the nomination in Florida. The only way Romney can keep the race going would be for him to win Florida and Nevada, which is possible, but unlikely.

  • jjhlh1

    This poll shows that Bachmann is out of the race. Her over the top attacks on Perry backfired.

    The choice will come down to Romney vs. Perry, as we all expect. Romney hasn’t gotten hammered on his Mass. health care plan, at least not to the degree it deserves. With the new study that came out last week showing that his plan destroyed 18,000 jobs and increased medical costs by 8 billion dollars, he will have a hard time defending it. Romney’s numbers will start sliding once people realize there isn’t much difference in his plan and Obamacare.

  • westcoastpatriette

    That may have worked in years past but there are too many people who are beyond furious with politicians and not willing to let such a huge issue be “dodged.” To take that approach will feed right into the rage people feel at politicians who manipulate the public to get into office and then betray them from then on.

    Not saying that that is what Perry is going to do. Just saying that the electorate will not allow Perry or any other candidate to get away with vague non-answers in order to please or appease anyone. And so it should be.

    Anyone who is running for public office has a duty to give specific answers to the electorate–before they are elected–on how exactly they plan on addressing the most egregious problems of the day. And that includes illegal immigration. The people have a right to know exactly what his vision is and how he plans on correcting the problems that have led to Americans being ripped off for years to pay for the billions of dollars that we spend to educate, medicate and incarcerate illegal aliens. To dodge coming clean with exactly what he plans to do would be an egregious negligent move on his part and I hope he doesn’t do it.

  • wonkish1

    He will be accused of pandering. And he will lose the very personal trait that voters(including primary voters) are clamoring most for these days and that is authenticity.

    If he now truly believes that illegals shouldn’t get benefits and came out and said it, people would accuse him of pandering, being inauthentic, etc., and those that care about it wont believe him anyway. If he comes out saying that its a model he wants to do for other things he pisses a bunch of people off and gets accused of pandering to Hispanics for the general. The best answer no matter what he actually believes is to stand by his previous position and don’t expand on it.

    So while your right in theory, in practice(in this case) he stands to gain 0 by reversing his previous position or expanding upon it.

    You may have just found the exact example where if he actually told you what he actually believed he would be surely accused of being a pandering politician(what you are accusing someone of being by avoiding it).

    It sucks that it works out that way, but if you really think about this example that’s conclusion you come to.

  • wonkish1

    If he takes the smart political move he gets labeled authentic(somebody that sticks by his beliefs).
    and
    If he actually is authentic, and says what he actually believes he gets accused of being inauthentic and overly political.

    So why do it?

  • westcoastpatriette

    Actually, I could care less what anyone personally feels. And there is much more to this issue to address than just Texas’ instate tuition.

    I want to hear if they are going to enforce immigration laws and protect the citizens from the multitude of problems that have resulted from neglecting dealing with the problem. What any candidate personally feels is beside the point. They have a duty to serve their constituents and enforce the laws on the books. What you are suggesting is manipulative and disingenuous and, as I stated before, will not work this election cycle.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Was it as awful as I imagine?

  • wonkish1

    Well what do you expect him to say. Every candidate on the GOP side is saying secure the border first and doing their best to dodge, “What would you do with illegals that are here after the border’s secure” question.

    You think “secure the border” and “enforce the laws already on the books” are specific answers because guess what that is the answers you can count on from now until Nov. 2012. I guess all of the candidates are being manipulative and disingenuous.

    Look I personally believe that there shouldn’t be a social security, medicare, etc. as its currently constituted. Hell I even agree in principal with Rand Paul and Goldwaters characterization of the Civil Rights Act. But if I’m running in an election am I going to say that? Hell no!! Since I couldn’t personally be disingenuous like that and look at myself in the mirror, no elected office for me ,ever!

    But that doesn’t stop me from realizing that politicians have to play a little bit of this game to survive. And that’s just me being a realist.

  • easyb

    put Rubio on the short list. I think the “other factor” is only one of them. For me, the first thing that comes to mind prior to the Latino vote is that having him on the ticket would go a long ways in locking in the Florida vote.

    My ulterior motive in wanting Rubio on the ticket is I want to see him destroy Biden in a debate. Pure awesome.

  • westcoastpatriette

    Time for a change.

    I would never vote for you.

  • wonkish1

    A person that believes there shouldn’t be Social Security and Medicare and lie about it and get elected.
    Then
    Someone who is too dumb to have ever even put the thought into whether those programs should exist, be honest when he says that he likes the programs and get elected..

    Trust me at least half of all elected Republicans, from local to federal, personally believe there shouldn’t be a social security or medicare; they wouldn’t get caught dead telling someone else though.

    If your recommending that they do come out and be honest about it, your insane!

    I personally take offense to those that say I wont raise your taxes or I do not support amnesty and then immediately change their mind in office. I’ll admit I find it a lot less offensive when they were successful in dodging the question during the election and therefore aren’t guilty of lying when they take office.

    And if it doesn’t change who’s going to end up winning the primary then I would rather not know. I.E. in an uncontested primary or in a primary where its 2 people I’m not voting for the other guy then I really don’t want to force our candidate to say everything he’s for or against unless he wants to because it doesn’t change anything.

  • Adjoran

    and it does appear a shift in the main to Romney from Bachmann. The logistics may be complex, with some Bachmann supporters going undecided, and some other undecided going to Romney after being unimpressed with Perry, but the effect is the same.

  • pttx333

    the very biased (liberal) Houston Chronicle.

    http://blog.chron.com/rickperry/2011/09/texas-tea-party-to-rick-perry-we-are-fed-up/

  • BA Cyclone

    and I don’t like Romney blinking like a chicken when he talks under pressure.

    What matters is the issues, and Mitt Romney’s conservatism doesn’t seem to come from his heart, but rather which side of his thumb is dry when he sticks it up in the political winds.

    I actually supported Romney in 2008 because he was about the best that we had to choose from, which wasn’t much in the way for conservatism.

    Now, in a world that needs 0bamacare repealed I don’t see how Mitt Romney is a strong political candidate. My opinion.

    Instead I’m for someone whose heart is more fully on board with the brand of conservatism that values personal, local, and state’s rights above the national government’s power to rule over us. For me that was Cain, Bachmann, and now Perry.

    Romney need not apply, because he can’t even understand why a person would criticize “social security” today. That tells me he’s more concerned about getting and staying elected than bringing conservatism to Washington, D.C.

  • davesinsanantonio

    Obummer’s track record is to throw anyone who can’t help him a lot under the bus. I don’t know who he would pick as a replacement for Dumb Joe, but it will either be a super liberal to appeal to his base, or a super fool to make himself look good by comparison. Or, both– and that list is miles long.
    Who knows what deviousness goes on between those ears.

  • davesinsanantonio

    she was only either a placeholder or a pot stirrer. She is good a riling up the troops, and I hope she will continue to do that and to continue to put the heat on the libs in behalf of the eventual nominee and conservative principles. But, few people ever really visualized her as the president.
    Romney is very few people’s favorite for numerous reasons. But, he too can speak well to some conservative principles, and I hope he will endorse Perry and continue to speak to those principles he can articulate well to the mainstream voters. Most people who could visualize him as president did so reluctantly. Again, for various reasons. He looks presidential, and sometimes can even sound presidential. But, he is not “a” conservative and does not even look much like one. Track record is everything.

  • jiminga

    she wasn’t ever my favorite, but she did espouse TEA Party principles and I thought she might be a viable VP on the ticket. Then she went on the innoculation binge and has painted herself as a crazy. Big mistake. She has gotten some bad advice, or ignored some good advice, and now sounds like a witch on a witch hunt. Like many, I haven’t picked my favorite yet, but Bachmann is no longer on my list.

  • davesinsanantonio

    mislead the gullible.

    “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics!” — Mark Twain

    You can make numbers out to mean anything you want them to if that is your goal. And the ignorant and easily swayed will not be able to see how those numbers are being manipulated to do that.

  • davesinsanantonio

    by many for a long time, then she makes one bad move and is labeled crazy and dismissed. Whereas a male loon like Ron Paul can say tons of crazy things for years and be treated as serious by lots of people for decades.

  • edintexas

    You made your point already. Comments like this one are unbecoming and serve only to diminish you, not the target of the barb.

  • ihateliberals

    I am a life long Republican and i have a great deal of Republican friends and right now out of almost 100 of them family included i can find but two that are supporters of either of these candidates. Is this the Elite Republican guard that is pushing these two? It would seem to me tht it much be the Independents who are for ths. Independents tend to be more liberal and these two candidates lean toward the liberal. If one of these two are the Republican candidate, yes i’ll say it, I won’t be voting for the first time in 45 years. Why bother it is to the point then that do I want to shoot myself in the right foot or the left foot. None of these candidates offer anything more than BAU. We need to get a real conservative into office. One that will make an real effort at overturning Obamacare and that will put real conservative economics to work. Neither Perry nor Romney have any idea what tht would be. It appears tht the RINO’s are shutting out any conservative candidates. The Party elite and the media are hard at work discrediting anyone tht believes in the constitution and is a hard line conservative. I frankly fear for the sovereignty of this nation for another 8 years.

  • Scope

    and either will Obama come the general. Yesterdays headline at Drudge was “Liberals vow to primary Obama.” I’ve been saying since last year when Obama’s numbers started dropping, and even Carville started making some negative noise about Obama, that if he kept going downhill, Hillary would jump in and primary him, if he doesn’t just back down before that. Look at all the recent stories about how popular and beloved Hillary is. They are trial balloons to see what kind of chance Hillary has. The Clintons always test stuff before they jump in. Soros and the Clintons are close friends, but for Soros’s money, he put it on a bright fresh articulate black guy that would be the real “first black president.” Soros wants a refund. He will now back who he probably thinks he should have backed last time, Hillary. Hillary will say she changed her mind, that she needs to do it to save her party, her country, and for the women who want the first women president. She won’t be easy to beat, as most won’t realize she is Obama II, but a lot smarter and even more devious.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ..

  • Scope

    n/t

  • Scope

    was really crazy. If you have Ron Paul even calling you crazy, you have really gone off the deep end.

    I believe many looked past her warts, and interestingly some of them are what she accusing Perry of now, and were willing to give her a shot. It’s more so her outright vehement attacks against Perry in the debate, where she refused to take his admitting he made a mistake and then moving on. She just kept at it, and continued the false attacks all the next day. She just released another ad still on the attacks.

    Over the last few election cycles, we’ve seen that people are sick and tired of negative campaigning, and going after your opponents, obviously trying to destroy their candidacy in any manner or shape. Bachmann has resorted to this kind of campaigning out of desperation. Most want to know what your ideas are, and like to see a positive campaign. The negative campaign that comes to mind was the Alan Greyson campaign. Another one would be the negative campaign against Nikki Haley.

    The Ron Paul supporters are in a camp all their own. Look at how many have been turned off by their obnoxious behavior whereever they congregate. His die hard supporters are not considered mainstream, whereas Bachmann’s were/are. Problem is, she caused another look at her record, and many are finding her wanting.

  • Kyle-MI

    While he has never apologized for Romneycare, he has also promised to fight against Obamacare. He has promised to grant wavers to all 50 states. He is certainly not promising to keep Obamacare in place nor is he promising to implement Romneycare at the national level.

    The danger from Romney is much more subtle. What will he do if the GOP cannot capture enough seats to repeal Obamacare? Even if Obamacare is repealed, what will Romney propose to replace it with?

    Direct attacks using Romenycare may work hard core conservatives and political junkies, but he will have a reasonable defense appealing to everyone else.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

  • Kyle-MI

    It would not surprise me if she stays on in congress and, like Paul, continues to make presidential runs while retaining her seat. Also, like Paul, she will always have a die hard core of supporters.

    At some point Paul will retire or shuffle off this mortal coil. Bachman might be an attractive heir to the Paul constituency.

  • tlhanger

    in the mix? Seems everywhere he goes he gains supporters. But our side is trying to keep a good man down. He could solve all this business dilemma and get America rolling again.

  • Scope

    I read the article, and it seems that the people being quoted, as the Texas Tea Party leaders are from the Texas Tea Party Patriots. Most of the Tea Party Patriot groups support Ron Paul, or at least they used to.

    One of the leaders quoted, JoAnn Fleming want Perry to call the legislature back into session to pass the Sanctuary City ban bill, that the legislature had already rejected. Does she think that the very same legislators will change their minds and pass the bill because she wants them to?

    Another Tea Party coordinator, Ken Emanuelson said that Perry has the option of signing an EO to address some of the immigration related problems.

    So if I have this right, they were probably some of those screaming because Perry bypassed the legislature and signed the EO for Gardasil, but now they want him to bypass the legislature and sign an EO to deal with the immigration problem. Am I missing something here.

    I also would love to know how they feel about their hero Ron Paul now calling for open borders so no one can be held in when they want to escape to Mexico.

    No wonder some of the Tea Party groups are losing popularity, and in essence are ruining it for those that aren’t so loony.

  • Scope

    supporters will go to Rand Paul. I’ve read the thought that Ron knows he can’t win the presidency, but is keeping the organization he has set up warm just waiting for Rand to gain some experience in the Senate, and then eventually he will take a shot at the Presidency. Don’t know if it’s true, but it kinda makes sense. I personally never had any doubt that Rand would follow in his dad’s footsteps, and he has in fact been on the campaign trail for Ron’s runs. Judging by some of his statements and moves in Congress, like writing his own plan for cutting spending, with no co-authors or sponsors, to an extent that it didn’t even gain any R support, he is well on his way.

    I think Bachmann has gone to far off the rails to ever be considered a viable candidate again.

  • rcastonjr

    would say, “Now there you go again”. Scope you amaze me. That very specific candidate is Ron Paul. Scope hates RP so nothing RP says has any truth in it whatsoever. Right Scope? Does anyone here really believe that we can impose ourselves in everyone’s business worldwide and there be no repercussions whatsoever? As an ex-military officer I’ll say it. Yes, there are repercussions and those repercussions are indeed “Blow Back” in the form of anti-American sentiment. To say otherwise is a lie. So Scope, exactly why does “blow back” have no place in conservative conversations? You mean if we don’t talk about here then it doesn’t exist? Or does it not exist because you say it does not exist? I’m curious. Thank you.

  • easyb

    You’re probably right. Still, I think Rubio would mop the floor with most anyone I can imagine being on the ticket.

  • Scope

    He is counting on his record at Bain Capital, where he claims to have created thousands of private sector jobs, but his record when he was governing Mass. was awful. As Perry stated, Romney’s state was 47th in job creation when he was governor, and that wasn’t in an economic environment that Perry still managed to create jobs in.

    Then of course Perry also created the means for the job growth in Texas with Tort Reform, no state tax, and the least amount of Regulations that he had control over. They are all winning issues with the population, not necessarily the special interest groups though. Perry can highlight the fact that a major power company in Texas now is having to close coal fired power plants, and they must layoff people because of the new increased EPA regs.

  • Scope

    in both Fla. and NV. It will help Perry tremendously that the NV Gov. already endorsed Perry.

  • onemovoter

    Both have shown themselves to be odd balls.

    Ron Paul said he’s not going to run for both Prez and congress. So he’s out, retiring after 2012.

    People who have worked with Bachmann have said that she tends to go on her own, not listening to advice from others or going on her own like she did with the lady after the debate story. There was a story written about this somewhere. To me it shows that Bachmann is not leadership material.

    I am curious to see if this flame out by Bachmann will imperil her congressional seat once she drops out of the Prez race.

  • Scope

    that it would be suicidal for any candidate to come out with any detailed plans. Bush campaigned on privatizing SS, but it never passed Congress when it came up. I don’t think he even had the support of all Republicans in Congress. If I’m not mistaken that came up around 2005, and in 2006 the House went back to the Democrats. Any entitlement reform has to come up shortly after the presidential win, and long before the mid-terms, and only if we have both houses. Much of the old wood must replaced also.

    As to Perry courting the hispanic vote, he already is. He had a fundraiser in NY yesterday, that was hosted by a hispanic that is the head of the Taxi Drivers. He was expected to haul in 50-100 grand at the fundraiser. The host has already endorsed him, and can bring many hispanics along with him. It also helps that Perry got 38% of the hispanic vote in his last Gov. race.

    Ronald Reagan said that “hispanics are conservatives, but they don’t know it.” The hispanics are leaving Obama big time, and if anyone can capture that block of votes it would be Perry. I am guessing that those numbers can be much higher than the number of people who hold the immigration issue as their hill to die on, or who they will vote for based on that single issue. See post below for polling numbers.

  • onemovoter

    Is dismal but does have 2 sides to it.

    Mass. was in really bad shape when Romney took over in 2003. As typical, a liberal democrat with the same legislature overspent because of the huge tech boom in the late 90′s, which went bust.

    However Romney had the luck of another economic boom during his 2003 to 2007 term. All of the surrounding states grew at 4-5% while Mass. was stuck at 1% for those 4 years. Perry has had to deal with 2 recessions in his 11 year tenure.

    My problem with Romney is that he’s been saying Perry’s had luck in having a Republican legislature which was part of his “4 aces” of things Texas has. This is in effect shifting the blame to others for the problems he had in Mass. That leaves a bad taste in my mouth as it is the same as Barry “it’s everyone else’s fault” Obama. Will Romney fold if for some unknown reason, congress goes under democrat control? I see a better than 50/50 chance at that.

  • JSobieski

    What action by the recently formed US at tresulted in the blow back of the Barbary pirates?

    What did Poland do to provoke German in 1939?

    Should we have let Iraq keep Kuwait and go nuclear?

    As a libertarian, Ron Paul should understand that people and nations have their own inclinations, their own desires, and their own goals. Do our actions give our enemies excuses to justify their attacks? Yes,they do. Would their behavior be any different if we behaved differently, or would they just give different excuses?

    Instead of “we attack you because you had troups in Saudi Arabia” maybe it would be “we attack you because you let the secular Saddam Hussain take over the sacred land of Saudi Arabia” or maybe even “we kill you because Allah tells us too”.

    The US is less popular in Egypt now than it was when Mubarak was in power, and Mubarak was (1) unpopular and (2) known to be supported by the US. The “logic” of what makes someone hate the US is anything but logical.

    People like OBL would hate us and try to kill us if built walls around the country and cut off all contact with the outside world.

    Evil exists. Even a withdrawn US is the biggest guy on the block, and people will always try to make a statement by hitting us.

    The violance of the middle east predates the existence of the US. The idea that but for our presence there, we wouldn’t be a target is naive.

    Thank you for your service to our country.

  • Scope

    when given a list of priorities, immigration comes way down on the list. Jobs and the economy are the high priorities, and I don’t see that changing between now and Jan. 2011. Granted the polling reports were from 2010, but according to a morerecent poll most want the borders closed, agree with the AZ law, and want police to be able to ask for proof of citizenship, however, many including 75% of D’s and surprisingly 47% of R’s are perplexed as to what to do with the illegals already here.

    I am not saying that I am an amnesty supporter, I am not. I do see the benefit of guest worker visas for the jobs that most Americans won’t do. I would agree that the 99ers should be forced to do some of those jobs, but current unemployment laws do not allow that. How many are willing to stand in a baking hot field, for 8 hours or more, and pick veges or fruit. How many are willing to muck horse stalls, and handle horses? Not many.

    Perry has a great shot at picking up a good portion of the hispanic voting block, and because the immigration issue isn’t high on the priority list, it’s possible that many won’t hold his immigration past policies against him. His record of job growth, and an economy in Texas to be envied can be the winning ticket. Of course that isn’t how Tom shott them all Tancredo won’t see it that way. What do you think?

  • Change Jar Conservative

    I know it sounds crazy and Newt is not at the top of my list by any means (AGW), but he has sounded like the smartest guy in the room these past few debates and if that continues then he may become the anti-Perry instead of Romney.

    At this point, I’m resigned to Perry (with his immigration blahs) over others. Still miss Mitch Daniels, but who knows maybe it will be a Perry/Daniels ticket.

  • Scope

    as you have stated, is that when someone inherits a bad economy, or two ongoing wars, or whatever, the knee jerk reaction is to blame the predecessor. Jeeez it’s all still Bush’s fault according to Obama and Freddy Kruegerman. I think people are tired and worn out with hearing those claims. Reagan inherited a terrible economy from Carter, but I don’t believe he ever resorted to blaming Carter. He worked at it, and did a great job in the time he had to turn it around. I know some will say, but he raised taxes, and yes he did temporarily. He also increased the military/defense budget and rebuilt a decimated military force which provided his peace through strength policy. If I’m not mistaken the military is still using some of the same military equipment that was authorized by Reagan and the Congress. That’s pathetic.

    As to Romney’s unemployment rate, didn’t I just read that because of Romneycare, the state lost 18,000 jobs? That has to be a crushing report against Romney and something Perry can put to good use.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    ..

  • pttx333

    Of course, what the dimwits will be reading in The Comical is that the whole tea party is rejecting Perry. Good grief! Another angle, IMHO, is they want Perry back in Texas and off the debates and campaign trail so Paul can “shine.” Yeah, he shines all right – in the glow of those spaceships he sees and has been in.

    I guess they think that because they demand it that Perry will come racing home after he calls a special session for that sanctuary city bill that they already rejected once. I really don’t think that is going to happen any time soon. ;-) They are a bunch of certifiable you-know-whats!

    And I suppose this is why I’ve had a hinky feeling about joining a Tea Party group. I support what the legitimate stand for, but in no way would I ever be involved with the wingnuts! Why oh why are there always a few bad apples who insist on beating to death what started as a very good thing??

    Was hoping you would notice this and read it – I knew we would be on the same page.

  • powertothepeople

    starts demanding the things Ron Paul demands, constantly calls for a gold/silver standard. blames the USA for the 9-11 attacks, etc, and is plainly a retard loon like Ron Paul has shown himself to be, I think it is quite unfair to compare her to him.

    I was her biggest supporter for president until she started to implode. I stuck with her till her “I am pissed Perry got in” diva act in Iowa. I would 100% agree she has lost a ton of respect with most people, but she is yet to deserve the comparison to Ron Paul. Up until this run, she was a staunch conservative deserving of respect and never acted like RP.

    Now, should that change and this off course path continues, we may need to revisit this later. But she has a long way to fall before she ends up in the same crap pile as RP.

  • red_oakster

    The only person who could possibly help Obama is Hillary and she is not going to volunteer for a kamikaze mission if the polls are bad.

  • Scope

    that Bachmann has not yet entered the black helicopter world of RP. Then again, with her doubling down on a bad mistake that she has to know everyone is considering it to be isn’t heartening. Bachmann, watching her polling numbers plummet after Perry entered, is obviously furious to be knocked off her top tier pedestal. She is acting desperate, and who knows to what lengths a desperate candidate will go. The way I see it, she has nothing now to lose. According to Rollins, she doesn’t have the money to compete beyond Iowa. She obviously spent her wad there trying to win a dumb straw poll. She did win it, but what has that gotten her, even without the current implosion. Don’t ever discount the capabilities of a female with outstretched claws.

  • Scope

    few bad apples ruining a good thing with the Tea Parties, it is proof yet once again that when there is a leadership vaccum, someone will always come forward to fill that vaccum. No one wanted Tea Party leaders, it ruins the grassroots citizens in their local towns and communities who came out spontaneously to protest the Obama destruction after the stimulus. When you saw who was starting to combine the Tea Parties into one big group, all posting the same platforms or goals on their websites, it was already starting to stink. I found it amusing that they claimed to be non-partisan, despite the fact that theliberals/Democrats hate the Tea Parties. I really do believe that there are two very distinct Tea Parties. One group leans to the Ron Paul faux (OK acat) libertarian groups, and those in lesser number that are closer to Reagan conservatives. I hope in the end the Reagan people win out. You will know them by who supports Perry, and it won’t be the faux libertarian faction, as evidenced by the Texas Tea Party.

  • Scope

    Hillary would never sign on to a losers ticket. She will go for his job, and then pick her own VP. Can you imagine Debbie blabber mouth Schultz as VP?

  • Shaggy_DA

    Dean Jones, Tim Conway, Suzanne Pleshette, Keenan Wynn, JoAnne Worley, and Dick Van Patten… what’s not to love? Okay, not an Academy Award winner, but an appropriate reference for my circumstances.

  • aesthete

    just a wildly incomplete one. Blowback is based on the simple statement, “actions have consequences”. That US bombs dropping on foreigners is going to create hurt feelings is rather an obvious and forseeable consequence among many. The question, however, is what effects they will have, and what other factors play into a) anti-American sentiment, and b) violent action (the two are very different)? Guatemala, Chile and Nicaragua were all host to various instabilities, coups and insurgent movements perpetrated by the US government — yet, we have FTAs with all three countries, good relations with their governments, and in the case of Guatemala, many pro-America immigrants to our country. It is not apparent that anti-American sentiment in any of those three countries is significantly greater than that of, say, Brazil or Costa Rica (where our interference was relatively minimal).

    Blowback shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand, nor should the idea that our actions abroad will come back to haunt us. That said, it’s a) absurd to believe that it accounts for every anti-Americanism or violence against us, or that b) it strongly implies non-intervention. (It is always plausible that the benefits outweigh the potential “blowback”, after all.) I’m not a particular fan of our post-Cold War foreign policy, but blowback is an extremely weak argument in isolation.

  • wonkish1

    Bachmann is falling and since Paul has met his peak Newt is the only one left that isn’t in the top two and isn’t falling in the polls.

    Even at 3rd he’s still a long shot. The only path way I see for Newt is to:

    1)finish 2nd or a strong 3rd in Iowa,
    2)pick up the Union Leader(NH conservative newspaper) endorsement in New Hampshire which is the most important endorsement in the primaries
    3) Surge 15+ pts because of the endorsement
    4) Beat expectations in New Hampshire
    5) Partially due to good performance in NH, take South Carolina and Georgia going into the Florida primaries

    While possible, that list of events is quite unlikely.

  • JSobieski

    “The concept of ‘blow back’” is based on a false premise that they wouldn’t otherwise do the same things.”

    I agree that actions have consequences.

    I agree that our actions are used by our enemies to gin up anti-American bahaviors.

    I also agree that our foreign policy hasn’t been very smart. Nation building in Afghanistan may be the antonym for “smart foreign policy”.

    I do think the premise “that they wouldn’t otherwise do the same things” is false.

    We do A, they do X using Y as the justication
    We do B, they do X using Z as the justification

    They nonetheless “do X”—so I stand by what I said.

  • wonkish1

    They’re calling it murder suicide. Because its practically guaranteed to hurt you just as much if not more than the guy your targeting.

    I have a feeling there may only be 1 more primary(2016) if that, that has even close to this amount of that aggressive behavior. It just doesn’t work all that well especially in the debates.

    Both the GOP and the Dems are starting to realize this.

  • imforeverfree

    Anybody that believes this may as well stay home in 2012. A vote for the crook Romney is like voting King Obo back in office. If you don’t like Perry vote fore somone else. You liked King Obo’s change well just wait until you get his student Romney in place. i am sure you will just love him…He don’t get my vote…Anyone else will have my vote. spoken from an old hillbilly that has been around for 67 years and seen what goes on…Heres to whomever NOT KING OBO OR ROMNEY.

  • wonkish1

    I’ve gotten to know Bachmann and some of cadre a little more intimately on a few occasions. She is exactly the type of selfish *me* candidate that would go all scorched earth on all of her colleagues to get what she wants.

    She was always talented at getting others to think that she was being selfless when stood up for conservatism at at every turn. But she was also the same person that would try to drag good conservative Hensarling in the mud when she didn’t get her way in to leadership. That she would kick Ryan in the face by offering her own response to the SotU. That she would selfishly anoint herself leader of the Tea Party.

    Most of my family lives in her district. I’ve met her and her team before on a couple occasions before she ran for president. And she always was a self serving politician. It stems from her belief that everybody else is corrupt and a RINO except her being as pure as the wind driven snow.

  • pttx333

    should form their own group. They never do, do they. Isn’t that strange? They prefer to tag along on the legitimate conservative group and run it into the ground. Same with the ronbot trolls – it is seldom they reveal who they are. If one is proud of what they believe, why must it be hidden? RP has ridden the Republican ticket for years, getting elected by the voters who vote straight ticket. Why don’t they form their own group and announce loud and clear who they are? Smacks of total dishonesty to me. I just can’t tell you how much I dislike that crowd! Where are they going to go when RP flames out, as he will? I suppose either stay at home or vote for b.o.

  • earlgrey

    It doesn’t make me happy, but I see the logic. I am disappointed that Daniels declined (after leading us on for so long).

    Of course had Sanford not been so stupid, he would have been an awesome choice.

  • papabear

    Just not CIC material.

    On the other hand, Bachmqnn has done nothing to curb my worry that she is a loose cannon. Quite the opposite – I see her treading water in the other end of Ron Paul’s loony pool. However, Bachmann may even be worse than Paul. At least he has “core principles”. Bachmann invents “new and improved truthiness” and refuses to come clean when she is caught in a lie.

    Think about this. She had at least one camera on her during the entire time when she claimed some crying mother cam e up to her with the autism story.

    Where is the video???

  • wonkish1

    Right now I’m more than okay with the choices.

    But no offense to Romney supporters, Perry supporters, Cain, Bachmann, etc. If Sanford didn’t throw it all away for some chick from South America none of the above candidates would even have gotten a morsel of my attention.

    I was heart broken the day that scandal broke. The only thing that is comforting is that South Carolina has replaced him with another stellar governor, but sadly he was going to make 1 he!! of a presidential candidate :(

  • windwaker24

    Romney will not get my vote either! I don’t plan on staying home though. I will vote. Either write-in or Constitution Party. It amazes me that people think Romney is better than Obama. How? Both lack leadership. Both have a habit of picking liberal judges. Both have or have shown a disdain for the 2nd amendment. Someone on HotAir.com made a LONG list of Romney’s flip-flops last week. I don’t remember the thread, but it was an eye-opener. I’m all for giving second chances, but the list was ridiculous! The guy has the morals of an alley cat which pains me to say because I love cats. Romney not so much.

    My prediction if Romney actually wins the Presidency:

    1) Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of House again because Romney will do something that will anger and depress the conservatives and energize the liberals during the mid-terms.

    2) Conservatives will lose the Supreme Court. Anthony Kennedy will retire and Romney will replace him with some moderate fool who will vote with liberal side of the Court.

    3) Romney will probably be a one-term President, because I have a feeling this weasel will damage the conservative brand (like Bush) and nobody will vote for him again! He will probably be primaried or just lose directly to the Democratic challenger.

    Lastly, for those of you who will vote for Romney because he is not Obama, remember how we got Obama. Obama won because he was not Bush. How did that turn out?

  • wonkish1

    But he isn’t tthhaatt bad.

    Some of your predictions are a little over the top. And it certainly isn’t worth giving Obama a 2nd term.

  • JSobieski

    I know quite a few Ron Paul folks are enthusiastic tea party people. The tea party movement has really brought them into the Republican party in a way that Ron Paul never did. They say that they will support whoever the nominee is. Yet, if you ask them, they really like Ron Paul (yes, they are lost souls).

    Do you want their votes or not?

    Some of us really want to repeal Obamacare because we know that our window for doing so is small.

    Is your top priority to repeal Obamacare, or to purify the tea party movement so that it is more to your liking?

    Maybe they should be forced to wear scarlet letters at all tea party activities? Is that a sufficient compromise from your standpoint? That way they won’t be “hidden” from view.

    Ronald Reagan understood the difference between what we demand from our leaders/candidates and what we demand from voters.

  • porkandcheese

    Romney’s polling has always hovered around 18%. Voters were waiting for a viable alternative. Perry hasn’t closed the deal yet, and he’s seen the bounce from his announcement end. But grassroots conservatives have rallied around various second-tier candidates, feeling their message is important. That given the chance, they will speak truth to power and test the frontrunners for weakness. However, a small portion of them holds out hope that their candidate can recover or at least get an important position in the administration, if not VP. Perry intimidates them, and they do resent his stealing the conservative mantle from their candidate. But they also think Romney is weak enough to be undone at the last minute, while also the likely nominee as the “next in line.” This psychology probably explains better than any the rationale behind the usual Republican nominating tradition. Perry has to deliver a knockout blow to Romney and reassure voters about his own record and potential as a nominee. Based on his record, he can likely do this.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    He’s just too far down the totem pole to matter.

    I don’t list every also-ran.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Heh.

    Let me introduce you to this thing called the Internet. It has vastly diminished the importance of the old line media. Newspapers are failing as businesses, not gaining in influence.

    Does Newt even have a staff anymore?

  • porkandcheese

    First time I ever heard he even had one. But Romneycare is an economic boondoggle. Read the Boston Globe’s take on the Beacon Hill report that said Romneycare was a job killer. It was a disaster and proves Romney has the wrong, big government instincts for the problems facing the United States.

  • Scope

    libertarian route back in the 80′s, as I’m sure you know. He found out that it really is a two party system, and that third parties have little chance. After Paul’s 08 flame out, he took his campaign moneybomb money and started the Campaign for Liberty, which had a statement on the web, I’m sure not for everyone’s eyes, but I found it. They said that third parties didn’t work so they had to take over one of the main parties, and the Republican party was the one to take over, because Republicans were lazy, and didn’t want to get their hands dirty. They determined that they could change the Republican into what they wanted it to be. That has caused a tremendous split between the traditional conservatives, and the one issue fiscal conservatives. That is what we are seeing the results of today. Heck Paul left the Republican party saying he was done with them, and that Reagan was a failure. He had to come crawling back when he knew he would go no where as a libertarian candidate. He couldn’t have even won his House seat as a libertarian. His cult members hate the Republicans, and to a lesser degree the liberals, but they know they can’t get a third party off the ground any time soon. So they stick with all us horrible neocons, to our detriment. As Rush said a few months ago, someone has to get rid of this guy (Paul) before he destroys the entire Republican party. I seriously doubt the original libertarian party would even take these homeless, hopeless loonies in.

  • Danielle Davis (ocleverone)

    only with better hair.

  • wonkish1

    Is still extremely huge in New Hampshire. It has been documented in every election including in 08 where McCain would have likely never even came close to beating Romney without that endorsement.

    Many primary voters have relied on the Union Leader to tell them what the smart conservative choice is for decades. Its kind of a tradition in many NH families.

    And while I agree one day that endorsement will be meaningless, today it is still extremely important.

    Important enough for Romney to personally go see and bump elbows with the editor and senior staff at least a half dozen times already. And I also believe it was one of Perry’s first quick meetings he had in his first trip to NH after the announcement. I believe I heard a report somewhere that Perry is planning a bunch more meetings and interviews with Union Leader.

    For now, the Union Leader remains the most important news source for the primaries and the most important endorsement in the primaries.

  • rightwingmom52

    I’d hardly put George Allen in the same category as Mark Sanford. Allen was taken down by the media and liberals because of a fabricated incident. Sanford showed a complete lack of character through his own choices, and I’m glad we discovered it now rather than later. Sanford’s actions proved he was never the man for the job. We just didn’t know it.

  • wonkish1

    He is currently in the process of rebuilding his staff operation in Iowa.

    But I agree with your implication, its to little to late and a long shot. My post was nothing more that a realistic portrayal of how much of a long shot it is.

  • wonkish1

    Than pointing out that we currently aren’t blessed with either of them in this primary because of scandal whether it was well deserved or over blown.

    Nothing more.

  • Scope

    we want their vote or not. How many of the die hard supporters came out and said they didn’t vote for McCain because they were standing on their principles. Look at the names of the people Paul himself endorsed in the general and refused to endorse McCain. I doubt Paul himself voted for McCain. How many of them wrote Ron Paul’s name in? This time to the rodeo they have dug their heels in even more, and I doubt they will vote for the R nom. if it isn’t Paul, which it won’t be. It will be much easier to chase the larger block of hispanic voters than to try to convince the Paul supporters to support the nominee. I do believe that the die hard Paul supporters are those that Reagan was referring to when he said “some just need to go their way.”

  • JSobieski

    What is the point in being as hostile to Paul supporters as possible and then being mad if they don’t vote the way we want them to?

    Maybe its a better strategy to hate the sin but love the sinner?

    The tea party movement has changed a lot of things in American politics. Many people brought in by Paul can be kept in non-Paul Republican world.

    Or we can just proactively cast them out with as much hostility as possible.

    I am not asking you to spend any time talking to any Ron Paul voters (you will just push them in the other direction anyway). What I am asking is, why go out of you way to both assume the worst and then go out of your way to help make the worst happen?

    If they are inconsequential, why mention them at all?

    Insults and character attacks are not the most persuasive of marketing tools.

  • JSobieski

    and that difference is critical. If some go their own way, let them do so. Lets just not encourage them to go their own way.

    Better yet, why not just focus on the issues like repealing Obamacare?

  • pttx333

    but you must admit that the ones that I referred to as “faux” Libertarians are the rabid loons. One can be enthusiastic without being disrupting, obnoxious or insulting in a vile way to those who do not agree with them. In fact, I have a little bit of Libertarian thrown in with my conservative that I refer to as my “get out of my house” streak.

    As for where their votes will go, who knows. I truly cannot see them voting for whoever our nominee turns out to be. But nowhere in my earlier post did I say anything about not repealing Obamacare, etc. As a very conservative 71 year-old female, there is nothing more that I want than to repeal every single thing b.o. and his minions have foisted upon this great nation. So, I will vote for whoever our nominee is, it is just that I would prefer to not hold my nose to do so.

  • aesthete

    is because it is rare for actions to have no effect. For example, it seems probable that without our intervention in the ME, or if we hadn’t sided with Israel in ’48, Al-Qaeda would find it more difficult to find recruits specifically to fight America. OTOH, the fact that the UK and France have not been targeted more by orgs like Al-Qaeda than other Euro countries (both arguably being the most colonial and interventionist of the Western powers in the ME) tells me that there’s more going on than “blowback”. This tells me that “blowback”‘s effect as it specifically relates to international Islamic terrorism, is minimal (but > 0).

    The effect of “blowback” on other areas is somewhat more obvious: WWI, for example, seems to be the more direct result of “best laid plans” than 9/11, and many nationalist insurgencies (such as the Kurdish insurgents in Turkey) seem to be causally related to specific actions undertaken by the governments they are fighting against.

    Once again, “blowback” is incomplete, but not necessarily useless as a tool of analysis within a comprehensive examination which takes into account self-interest and goals, resources, and the relative rationality or information known by participants.

  • Aaron Gardner

    You should write an entire satire piece like this, it would be epic.

  • gregorysstewart

    I am one of those people! I am just the kind of person who thinks Perry would make a good president.

    I do not think that someone who would lose a general election makes a good candidate, because you have to win before you govern.

    I think that the person who has presided over half the jobs created in the US during the same time our president has been presiding over this failure of an economy has a great message; a strong message both loud enough and simple enough to break through all over, and even among those that know more about Dancing With The Stars than how our country works.

    Next November a whole lot of folks are going to have to vote between a solid and mostly conservative record of accomplishments or a liberal song and dance.

    I support the guy with the record.

    I am the guy pushing Perry, because he has never lost a campaign. If Obama wins and appoints another post-constitutional Supreme Court justice, our nation will most likely never recover. Winning counts! Winning counts more than any other consideration, so the guy who has never lost before is going to get my support.

    So here I am, writing, blogging, talking, challenging, and pushing Perry. I don’t think he walks on water. I don’t like his in-state tuition problem, but I understand that he will not win the general election without a large dollup of Hispanic vote, so I still push. Another Obama term is too scary not to.

    I realize that Bachmann is right when she says that a presidential order is not good enough to overturn Obamacare. So does Romney. So does Perry. I also realize that beyond a presidential order, those who would overturn Obamacare will need 60 votes in the senate.

    That will not happen in 2012. Not maybe, not if only, not by some chance. We will do well in the senate, but a 13 seat pick up is far more than is possible. It is irresponsible to promise action in the congress when that action will not happen, at least before 2015.

    Now, Perry will not appeal to upper west side Manhattan elites, and he will disgust Georgetown know it alls. He will make union thugs weak at the knees, and Hollywood liberals will be foaming at the mouth, but really… Isn’t that what we want anyway?

  • tankertodd

    He has said little that I don’t like. Don’t get me wrong: he’s a politician telling me what I want to hear. But politicians also change with the times, and the times have changed A LOT in the last 10 years. If things were relatively steady-state I would hold RomneyCare against him more. But at least he got something done. He’s completely disavowed it as a solution nationally and I can’t imagine he could walk back from that.

    Romney’s not my first choice but if he’s the nominee I’ll bust my hump to get him elected because I don’t know if the Republic can survive another 4 years of Obama.

    I once took an Oath to support and defend the Constitution. I take that seriously. Obama and big spending/government must be stopped, and our nation must be placed on a financially secure path, else we’ll be destroyed.

  • aesthete

    except for the whole betraying Jesus thingee. I’d totally pick him over that CINO Peter.”

  • aesthete

    wondering, “why can’t he be President?” Then I remembered.

    I’d probably still vote for him over the others in the running, all told, if I thought he had a shot.

  • Flagstaff

    “Sure, Obama has no real tax reform plan, but I haven’t heard any of the Republicans running with one, either.”

    His guests were too much in awe of the Tall Oppressive One’s brilliance to suggest that maybe he just wasn’t listening or to tell him about Cain’s 9-9-9 plan, but maybe that doesn’t count since he’s already counted Cain out, too.

    (Not a jab at you, Neil, but a gentle poke at The Faxter.)

  • wonkish1

    Has been doing the last couple years.

    So I pull up his Wikipedia. Last line is a sentence about his 8/16/11 interview which I’m now going to track down. But the sentence was to point out he had food on his face. LOL

  • Flagstaff

    of your comment. I like Newt, too, with the same reservations.

    McCain was still way down at this point last time, I believe. I don’t know how his resources then stack up against what Newt has now.

    I like Perry, but I’d also like him to be more articulate and convincing when he talks about conservative issues. Both Mitt and Newt are way ahead of him in that area. It isn’t just the drawl, it’s the occasional stumbles and too-frequent hesitations.

  • wonkish1

    Was that McCain was about this time running out of money and Newt made that mistake earlier.

    McCain got a lot of money early in the campaign. Spent it on the most extravagant offices, consultants, pollsters, etc. and about this time is when those huge bills started outpacing his revenue. And since he was so retarded he didn’t see this coming early so instead of gradually scaling back he waited to the last minute and was forced into scrapping almost all of his expenditures and taking out a loan collateralized(surprisingly by) his donor/contact list. In about late October he was reduced to a bare bones operation for the rest of the campaign. And if not for the Union Leader endorsement he wouldn’t have stood a chance.

    Newt got a decent chunk of money when he announced and then decided to blow it on flying private so that he could get back to Virginia at a reasonable time every night. His decision to go on the trip in Greece was the last straw for some of Newt’s recently hired staff and his senior staffer who had been with him for about 20 years.

    Since these 2 decisions Newt has been slowly and steadily getting his finances and staff back in place. As said before its to little to late. And his negatives still remain high.

    Outside of a really lucky set of circumstances Newt wont win. But at this stand point he probably has a better shot at it then Bachmann, Cain, and Santorum because at least he’s rising in the polls when they are falling.

  • carolynr

    So Michelle…thanks to your ranting and ranting about a vaccine that must be given at the age of 12 to be effective against HPV…YOU AND YOUR SUPPORTERS HAVE NOW GONE OVER TO THE TRUE RINO IN THE PARTY…MITT ROMNEY.

    You were going to do something about Obamacare…and here your voters are going for the fool that set the stage.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    Maybe Perry needs to spend some quality time outing Romney as the Mandater-in-Chief, among other things.

    At least Perry backed off the HPV EO. Romney isn’t refudiating Romneycare a whit.

  • westcoastpatriette

    By the way, did you ever get the message I sent to you the other day? If not, let me know right now and I’ll fill you in again. (Don’t want to waste my time explaining if you’ve left the site already.)

  • pttx333

    And, as an added note here, not only am I on board for Perry, but I DID vote for Nixon AND for Goldwater in ’64 when I was finally old enough to vote (it was 21 then). How’s that?

    I agree with you on the rest of your comment, too. I know that 2012 is make-or-break for our wonderful country as we knew it. Particularly for me in that I grew up during the Happy Days era when we would have been horrified had we known what this country would become.

    Can’t wait to see a few of the Hollywood libs foam at the mouth!

  • wonkish1

    http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/09/19/gingrich-will-unveil-very-visionary-new-contract-with-america-next-week-in-iowa/

    I’m sure he’ll bring it up at the debates. I just hope the press actually covers it with their Newt blackout these days. At least if it gets covered the popular pieces will be picked up by Romney or Perry after the primaries.

  • Scope

    because they no longer see a path for her, and they are going to Romney because they believe the false charges Bachmann made against Perry such as Crony Capitalist or Gardasil causes mental retardation, that in no way is Perry’s fault. Rather the fault would lie with those that refuse to see Bachmann’s record, or even Romney’s.

  • carolynr

    Watch him agree…and I will be waiting when the facts come out about the vaccine. As far as the Crony Capitalism…$5,000? Sure the guy gave more money to the governor’s association…are we going to paint them all with that brush also…Mr. Romney

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    For now, anyway, what good is an expensive ground game unless you can own the message on the small screen?

    I think that’s why you see those numbers tightening. Nobody is running away with this just yet.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    And that causes them to shun Perry?

    Interesting theory.

  • wonkish1

    That is quite obviously unbelievable as you guys have pointed out.

    What actually happened is.

    1) Perry announces and takes some Romney Voters, even more Bachmann voters, and a few from everybody else.
    2) After the debates more Bachmann voters go to Perry. But some of the votes that Perry got from Romney go back to Romney. Those people are running around trying to think of who is most likely to beat Obama(whether they are wrong or right)
    3) So you see a very temporary affect where Bachmann voters >go to> Perry >go to> Romney
    4) The temporary effect is to have Bachmann’s vote decrease, Perry’s to remain the same, and Romney’s increase and it appear that Romney gained due to Bachmann. But Perry’s vote is growing more conservative so we all know my description in 1-3 is much more accurate.

    This is much better explanation than saying that Bachmann’s supporters are going to Romney.

  • runner12

    Cain to Romney? Their idealogy and principles are very different. Romney is a BIG government Republican. He signed into law RomneyCare, the blueprint for ObamaCare. He has flip-flopped on abortion so many times I am not sure where he lands now. His fiscal conservative record is abysmal if you consider that his health care plan is bankrupting MA.

    Romney is the anti-Tea Party candidate, at least where I am from. While Perry has made poor decisions, his record for fiscal conservatism and smaller government is much better than Romney.

    It is important not to be swayed by personalities, but to support someone based on their record and substance.

  • runner12

    NT

  • wonkish1

    Is something that does matter a lot. It helps in the debates and on the stump and in campaign commercials. It is the principal and only way a candidate markets him/herself.

    Now I think Traversecity has to realize that Cain blowed in his first couple debates. I mean it was horrible.

    Perry did well enough for his *1st couple national debates*, we’ll see if he continues to improve.

  • runner12

    scenario is one worth discussing. It would surprise me quite a bit to see Bachman’s supporters going over to Romney based on a perceived social issue, given Romney’s past flip-flopping on abortion.

    But there are always some fringe supporters who are not rational in their thinking (that goes for those of any candidate) and may go for Romney because he is “not Perry.” I hope that as conservatives this is not the case and/or those people reconsider looking at which man’s principles are the most conservative rather than voting on emotion.

    After all, we were cursed with Obama as President because many voted for him because he was “not Bush.” We can see now where that line of thinking got us and it wasn’t Hope and Change, more like Misery and Debt.

  • wonkish1

    As mentioned elsewhere, most of my relatives reside in her district. I cannot point to 1 single person that has switched from Bachmann to Perry. I can point to a lot of people that have switched from Romney to Perry and back to Romney and a ton of people that have gone from Bachmann to Perry.

    Find me a Bachmann supporter anywhere that has gone from her to Romney. I mean your really going to have to look. And keep it mind its half of her previous support that isn’t any small number.

  • Scope

    I have no illusions that you lack reading comprehension, but you are truly a master spinner of what people have said, and how you choose to reply to many comments. You cannot possibly read my comment and interpret it mean that everyone fleeing her thinks she’s wrong on everything but Gardasil. I said they are fleeing her because they don’t any longer see a path for her to win. I said they have never bothered to check her record of her own support of Crony Capitalism.

    Get over yourself. You are a dishonest poster, a master spinner, and you are quite obnoxious while you are at it.

  • windwaker24

    In which way? Didn’t we just witness scenario #1 a few months with Obama? He ran as a centrist, but once elected we got otherwise. I suspect the same with Romney. He has no conservative fortitude whatsoever and once he gets what he wants, he will DO what he wants, screw the conservatives!

    For #2, Moderate Gerald Ford selected a “moderate” Republican for the Supreme Court. His name was John Paul Stevens. How did that go?

    #3 may be over the top like you say, but entirely possible. I just have this feeling that this time around in 2015, a President Romney will be going through the same problem Obama’s going through with his liberal base because conservatives will discover that Romney was not the man they were looking for…

  • pttx333

    where he is today. The pitiful part is that those who are one- or two-issue voters who honestly support and believe in him are overshadowed by the cultists. When I go to other conservative websites their comments are absolutely vulgar and disgusting. How can anyone have civil discourse and a good debate with anyone like that? When I lived in his district I would be bombarded with Paul robocalls and real live people who were sometimes very rude, but not always.

    Isn’t Rush the man? I just adore that man. You can pretty much take what he says as the gospel, because it typically turns out to be exactly how he says it would be. I’m so thankful to have him – just call me a Dittohead because that is what I am!

  • Scope

    but as we found out from the eloquent speechifer Obama, it should never be the first criteria as to how we choose a candidate. Obama eloquently told all how he was going to socialize (or worse) the country, and he was elected largely for that ability. I’ll take record over speaking ability, or debate performance any day. Romney would without doubt give us a speech that would make Harvard people proud, but, Perry will make it clear, without 50cent words, so to speak, what he has in mind.

  • JSobieski

    When you see disruptive, obnoxious, or insulting behavior—condemn it. To lump people into to that category based on their political beliefs is EXACTLY what the MSM does to us.

    If you don’t have confidence in Ron Paul supporters, that is fine. I just don’t see the value in picking fights with them. They don’t want to hold their noses either. I know I don’t.

    Reagan’s example on this point is a good one. Don’t chase the strays determined to go on their own way, but don’t chase people on the margin away either.

    The tea party as a separate distinct amorphous blob of voters is the best thing that happened to the Republican party since 1994 and probably since 1980. Lets not pick needless fights for no reason. That is all I am asking.

  • runner12

    It would make previous Bachman supporters seem kind of lacking in principle if they had gone to Romney en masse.

  • gekster

    found it best just not to reply to him.
    He’s just trolling and best to be ignored.
    He has already said he is just playing a game, and as such can not be taken seriously.
    Others feel the same.

  • wonkish1

    In the general he would try to hit on a few centrist platitudes, but his answers to questions and policy prescriptions were way left. He also ran to the left of Hillary in the primaries.

    Romney is for sure to the right of Gerald Ford. That’s not even close. He’s more political then his opponents and he certainly was more political in Mass, too because it Mass. He’s also way to the right of McCain as well.

    Look I have been able to piece together his personal economic beliefs and they are close to what your typical Wall Street trader believes. Its a mix of supply side economics with a bit of Neo-Keynesian monetary policy. I run into those type of guys all the time so I understand them quite well. These beliefs are slightly to the right of W’s.

    As far as judges its a pretty safe bet he’ll be nominating more Justice Roberts types.

    Together those aren’t rousing Conservative beliefs, but they certainly aren’t liberal. And I could much more easily swallow a vote for him than I could for McCain or for even W. for that matter.

  • wonkish1

    Obama flat out told the country he was going to socialize healthcare, grant amnesty to illegals, and try to pass a cap and trade bill and he was such a talented speaker the country actually elected him..

    Reagan single handedly moved the needle of American politics in our favor from then on purely on his ability to speak well to the American people. Bush lost his bid for privatizing social security purely because he was incapable of winning the argument.

    So, yeah its important. Outside of the issues themselves its probably the single most valuable personal trait that a candidate can possess. Authenticity probably being a not to distant 2nd.

  • westcoastpatriette

    In some ways, I am slow to catch on and I try to give everyone the benefit of the doubt but his comments today have been all over the place–some outright bizarre. Getting weird.

  • gekster

    and by the end of the day came around to saying he liked Perry.
    I think that was the thread someone asked if he was serious, and he said it was just a game to him.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    It’s early, and he has a lot of questions to answer.

    Am I trolling to ask them? I think not.

    I’m not going to sit here and pummell Michelle Bachman’s backers for leaving her and not falling in line to support Perry like some think they should.

  • Scope

    I have some suspicions with this post of yours-

    “By the way, did you ever get the message I sent to you the other day? If not, let me know right now and I?ll fill you in again. (Don?t want to waste my time explaining if you?ve left the site already.)”

    Seems a little curious that you would go from that message to saying that his comments have been weird. Why would you have not observed that long before now, when everyone else has recognized his “bizarre” posts? You’ve surely been here long enough to have read them all.

  • windwaker24

    But what I don’t care for are people who try to commandeer the votes of others, and call them idiots because they won’t give it up for THEIR candidate or party. I am an Independent, but not of the flaky, fickle sort.

    My objectives are clear:

    1) Respect for the Constitution
    2) Respect for the Founders
    3) Good character
    4) Leadership/Genuine care for the people

    A candidate who wants my vote, needs to exhibit these characteristics. If not, I’ll look elsewhere…

    I compromised my objectives in the 2010 mid-terms and voted for Proven Liar Mark Kirk (R-IL) and “took one for the team”. He didn’t even wait two weeks before he disappointed me and made me regret my vote.

  • Scope

    You have some ulterior motive for being here, and it has nothing to do with “your questions about Perry.” You are a fraud. The question is who are you really working for.

  • westcoastpatriette

    and that is why I told gekster sometimes I am slow to catch on when someone may be playing political games. Not all of his comments are bizarre–just some.

  • wonkish1

    There are those that run around propping up their candidates and attacking their opponents.
    and
    There are those that run around freely talking about the negatives and positives of different candidates without real concern if that positively or negatively affects the candidate.

    I tend to find the 2nd type more entertaining to see because they aren’t as repetitive as the top group. Also since I would probably fall in that 2nd group.

    Now USdebateboard, might focus a little more on the negative than I do or maybe is a little more controversial in a few areas, but that aside his motives seem like they’re in the right place.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    If you attribute me or anything I say to something conspiratorial, I can’t help that.

    If you throw in with the vote-him-off-the-island gang here, I can’t do anything about that either.

    Rick Perry is a mere mortal. This isn’t 2000 and he’s not a Governor from Texas whose has the same last name as a former President who lost his way but was otherwise likable.

    Rick Perry has more work to do and more to prove, in my eyes.

  • gekster

    He has come full circle.
    He has gone from not liking Perry, to liking Perry, and with his last post above, to, lets say being skepticle of Perry.
    Pay attention, you’ll see.

  • wonkish1

    At least what was available on his profile.

    I’ll admit there are some very odd posts. I’m not so worried about him running back and forth saying good and bad things about different candidates. But some of his posts use odd language you just wouldn’t expect from someone that you would call genuine.

    My sample size is still to small for me to say much.

  • Scope

    and then you disappear for a long while. I remember when you were here last campaign season. You do have a tendency to be a bit naive at times. You have only just gotten back into Redstate in the last few days, but, usdebateboard has so aggravated the members they have been posting recipes in response to his comments. Before you “go there” please go back and look at usdebateboards history. Many have tried to have rational conversations with him, no dice. He has an ulterior motive, and I promise, it isn’t in electing the best conservative or even Republican to the presidency. Please don’t do this naive stuff again as you did the last time here. READ.

  • wonkish1

    nt

  • westcoastpatriette

    At least I am not alone. Generally speaking, I am slow to come to absolute conclusions about peoples’ motives for being here. I am too new to this game so I defer to others who are keener on such things. However, I am not totally clueless in judging peoples’ character.

  • wonkish1

    The last several weeks. And just about 1-3 days for the last 6 months I take a good 30 minutes and read through the site.

    Don’t worry I haven’t disappeared. I just pop in and make a quick post when I find something interesting or post a quite a few times when the mood strikes.

  • Scope

    You sure told me without doubt that you are much more educated on the immigration issue than I, or anyone else. With logic, wouldn’t that mean that “you are an expert on immigration issues? You seem to be a passive aggressive poster as to Perry, just as usdebateboard has been. Are you trying to leapfrog each other?

  • westcoastpatriette

    I can decide I don’t like someone and for that reason avoid them but concluding they are trolls–not so much.

  • westcoastpatriette

    You are the one who has zero tolerance for people who twist words and now you are doing the same thing. I have never told you that I am much more educated on imm. than you. As I recall, I said I am more informed than most people. So, don’t twist, okay Scope?

  • Scope

    people decide for themselves. If wonkish wanted a history of usdebateboard’s comments, he could surely look them up. The last time he was here, in a campaign season, it took him a good while to catch up, and get up to speed with the site. He will find out, but it takes him a little while. He will get there though, eventually. He’s like this happy energizer bunny, which I think I called him his last time around.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    But, if we have to go ther, I have always felt more at ease when others had low expectations of rme.

  • wonkish1

    I just looked through his post history and did admit a few of his posts were a little odd.

    Also I’ve posted on here many times since last campaign season. I just usually don’t like getting involved in candidate supporter vs. candidate supporter fights that seem to dominate Redstate. So there is only an occasional thread that captures my interest enough to post.

    Also, even on days when I’m not posting, I’m usually reading.

    USdebate’s handful of posts on a few threads I saw weren’t to out of the normal, but then when I read his history particularly in the “Goodbye Angry Right” thread of which I didn’t care to participate in, his posts did as I’ve said before look odd.

    So I’ll admit that I jumped the gun before.

  • gekster

    Letting him know he might be wasting his time.
    I am familiar with him, and he does post in good faith.
    IMO

  • Scope

    has a different meaning than more educated? Who would have thunk it. I believe I said that I have been watching the Obama admin. with respect to what the Obama admin. has been doing behind the scenes on immigration. I posted links that proved that what the feds have been doing all but obliterates any real actions that Gov’s can do with respect to immigration, Your reply to me was to dismiss much of what I posted about the feds. actions, and you most certainly dismissed anything I said, as you are so much more knowledgable than I, Yyou think Gov’s have more ability to control than they do. You have had a problem with Perry on immigration, and you’re comments have borne that out. You just want to refuse to believe that Governors don’t have much control over a federal responsibility.

    I’ll go toe to toe with you on how the Obama admin. has usurped any ability of any states to do much of anything about immigration. Let me know if you are up to it. I’m ready.

  • westcoastpatriette

    I have better things to do than waste my time with a paranoid person.

  • JSobieski

    For example, I am amazed at how many people want politicians to say really strong stuff like “Social Security is unconstitutional” when it is not an election year, but don’t want candidates to have a plan for dealing with entitlements when it is an election year.

    In that sense, I think Bachmann is quite odd, since she wants no raising of the debt ceiling, but seems unwilling to address entitlements or defense. Her refusal to raise the debt ceiling is quite odd in the context that she hasn’t proposed enough cuts to make good on a commitment to not raise the debt by even one cent.

    I am no fan of Huckabee and I am a supporter of Perry, but its pretty clear that Perry’s in-state tuition for illegals is far more frequently defended here than Huckabee’s in-state tuition for illegals. Does this observation make me “odd” in that it is a negative comment about Perry? I had a strong disapproval of Huckabee and I really like Perry (or hope to really like Perry). Reality is reality. It is important that we are honest with ourselves, even if we spin a little bit for causes or candidates we believe in.

    Instead of treating usdebateboard as some kind of infestation, why not just deal with the comments at face value? Looking for “odd language” is itself a bit odd, don’t you think?

    Arguments in a particular comment should be able to stand or fall on their own merits. The identity of the person who says them, or the other arguments a person makes doesn’t negate the logic or lack thereoff in a comment.

    There is way to much argument by authority going around.

    That is my 5 cents, and you are obviously free to disregard all of the above. No doubt my posting history reveals me to be quite “odd”. I have said good and bad things about most candidates.

  • gekster

    You two are reminding me of my two older sisters argueing over lipstick.
    Mom would allways buy the same kind, style for each.
    They would argue over them when one appeared shorter than the other,
    both claiming the longer one was thiers, never realising at the time that when one of them would run out, the other would allways lend them thiers.
    Just saying it’s needless.

    (slowly stepping away and not turning my back.)

  • westcoastpatriette

    .

  • gekster

    In the thread I was refering to, people were posting to him in good faith.
    He did become, uh, nonsensical, for lack of a better term.
    And changing minds on a candidate is nothing new, but in the same thread.
    And that was after posters stopped responding to him.
    Like I say, just my opinion, but I could be wrong.
    I often am.

  • http://www.usdebateboard.com usdebateboard

    So this is a hobby for me, yeah. As I suspect it is for many others here.

    Doe that cheapen this? I dunno.

    I can’t be both a troll and a paid political operative in troll’s clothing now, can I?

  • lineholder

    in recognizing both strengths and weaknesses in a candidate. I’d be more concerned about someone who sees only side of it and not the other (particularly when all they see are strengths and come across as being blinded to the weaknesses).

    Want to hear an “odd” comment? Choosing a candidate can be a lot like choosing a spouse…you know what their strengths and weaknesses are, appreciate their strengths, and choose them anyway despite their weaknesses.

  • Scope

    but the partiette has come out strong against Perry immigration policies. She indicated for her it can be a dealbreaker. She has posted that Gov. have more power than they actually do. If you look into what the Obama admin. has done to strip any immigration laws on the books, you would understand how Obama has made it impossible for any Governors, or even the police in the states to accomplish anything. acat asked her what she was doing in her state to fight the problem, and her comment was that 287(g) was accomplish whatever. She isn’t even up to snuff on the stripping of the 287(g) program by this admin. But she’s sure quick to disparage Perry because of his positions.

    I have no problem going head to head with the facts, but to be dismissed as though I know nothing, and that the patritte has been much more on top of the issue is frankly disingenious and more than a little decieving. I don’t post much of anything without having the details at hand.

  • gekster

    is I’ve seen both of you as friends to each other, and not to let a little quibble come between you.
    Just realize that politics takes passion, which you both have, and don’t let it come between you two.

  • gekster

    And tell me if the disagreement is worth the fuss.

    (no need to answer)

  • Scope

    that you are so on top of the immigration issue when you have little knowledge of what the Obama administration has done with the complete destruction and decimation of the immigration laws on the books. If you want to address the problems including all the details then we can have a debate on the issue. If you are willing to acknowledge that the Governors have little recourse, then we can have a discussion. Other than that you are correct, we have nothing to “discuss.”

    As to paranoid, how bout we check out your paranoid posts against Perry with respect to immigration, and what you think he can really do realistically.

  • davesinsanantonio

    that you cannot trust “numbers” by themselves. And, you cannot always trust someone’s interpretation of what numbers mean. It is like polling numbers thrown around without stating what the question’s wording was, who was polled, when and where, etc.
    In order to understand what the numbers mean you have to know what all the various numbers are, and what their relationships are to each other, etc.
    It is like the old story about the race between a Ford and the Russian Volga that the Ford won easily. The Russian press reported that while the Russian car came in second the American car came in next to last. The reporting is accurate, but doesn’t tell the real story.
    All that having been said, which party uses numbers to confuse the gullible, and which party tries to educate the electorate so they can make intelligently informed decisions? The numbers are often the same for each party’s story but interpreted to give opposite conclusions. Or, conclusions that are not really supported in the numbers themselves. Thus Obama’s victory is a result of people wanting what he is doing. But, the slippage in the polls indicates widespread racism among those people who
    voted for him less than three years ago. It can’t really be both, but someone is using those numbers to make those cases.

  • wonkish1

    Had nothing to do with his comments for or against candidates

    It had to do with atypical language for someone that would claim to be a genuine conservative.
    Here’s some examples:
    1)”See, the reality is, in most states, the higher education pie can’t be grown, So if you let someone new in, you have to keep someone else out.”

    2)”Wish I could get the right here angry about Perry’s *GENEROSITY* toward illegals”—-Why use the word generosity instead of “welfare”, “gifts”, “pandering”, etc. “Generosity” is the language someone would use if they didn’t actually believe that statement

    3)”Not sure Greta is a conservative woman
    She makes goo goo eyes at Paul Ryan and Ken Cuccinelli, sure,

    I think she understands if she doesn?t show Palin some deference, she can?t get her on her show, and that?s the prize.”

    4)”At least Eastern Eurpoeans had the presence of mind to throw the communists out,even if it hurt them for a while.”

    Various “conservative posts” seem a little bit to conjured as to what a non conservative would think a conservative would post(like his post on FDR)

    And the oddest of all is that usually when someone gets accused of not being genuine on here they go into full defense mode. He ducks, doesn’t post as much and comes back with

    “If you attribute me or anything I say to something conspiratorial, I can?t help that.”
    and
    “But, if we have to go ther, I have always felt more at ease when others had low expectations of rme.”

    That was what was just available on his profile. I’ll admit its a small sample size, but I think its fair to call this “odd”. I was in no way referring to his criticisms of a certain candidate or anything like you have in your post.

  • Scope

    tell me you honestly don’t fuss when someone tells you they have much more knowledge than you do with respect to an issue. Hmmmm.

  • gekster

    I can’t count the times my intellegence has been questioned on this site,
    (the last one that I am mental) and I just agree.
    And if people I have never met has more knowledge than me,
    (even though I know better) than so be it.
    I find it better to just ask pointed questions and respond in kind.
    and if it gets to a point, (like usdebateboard) just quit responding.
    But I have seen you two agree with much more than this one disagreement.
    All in all it is just a matter of opinion, and everyones got one.

  • lineholder

    Go ahead. Take a few pot shots. As far as I’m concerned, I’m outta’ after tonight anyway. Change that…I’m out of political blogging of any sort.

    People don’t seem to realize it, but it’s gotten to the point where the kind of rhetoric going on at conservative sites is even WORSE than it is at liberal sites. It’s as if there is some unchecked extremely contagious rhetoric epidemic that’s destroying sense of unity that could possibly exist. After all, what do we have to be unified about, except that if Obama is re-elected we may be looking at the end of the US as it was intended to be.

    I would laugh until my sides hurt if it wasn’t so sad.

    But seeing as how you’re determined to get into it, bring it on, Scope. And that goes for anyone else whose “in the mood”!

    Let ‘er rip, baby! Have at it and then some, okay? Get it all out of your system. You’ll be talking to thin air.

  • windwaker24

    Actually, makes me nervous. Any kind of Keynesian economics scares me. As for the courts, even though I like Chief Justice Roberts, he doesn’t exactly thrill me or uphold original intent like Justices Thomas and Scalia. Lately, he’s been a little whiny about case volume in the courts, and I think his Court practices and priorities need a little improvement. Still think he’s cute though! ;)

  • wonkish1

    It was meant to give you as accurate of a portrayal I can give you about Romney.

    While simultaneously dispelling the notions that he’s a liberal in sheep’s clothing.

    Just realize that if you were able to justify a vote for McCain in 08 and Bush in 00 and 04 than Romney should be easy to justify by comparison.

    Obviously get out and support your person in the primary in the meantime.

  • westcoastpatriette

    I’m sorry you had to be exposed to the ugliness but that is about the third or fourth time that Scope has started attacking me and it is always a shock and a distortion of the facts. I know myself better than Scope and she reads evil motives into things that are not there so I just got tired of it and made the flip remark about her being paranoid.

    Anyway, I know from reading your posts that you are a solid, sound and decent person who contributes a lot to the quality of the discussions here so I hope you change your mind about sticking around.

    In a public forum like this, those kinds of things are always going to be happening as we can’t control the many people who come and go from here. Most of the time I keep it civil but sometimes bullies need to be confronted and that is why I was so harsh with Scope because she gets aggressive with her attacks and I don’t appreciate it.

    I refuse to allow the few spoilers to ruin things and stop me from coming here and learning, growing and contributing. Just thought I would say those things to you as I know you have been here longer than I and I have been following the discussions since minncon’s diary opened up the the topic of snarkiness and fighting here. I say just look at the negatives as coming with the territory and don’t let it get to you.

  • windwaker24

    I didn’t vote for McCain in ’08. I didn’t get a chance to vote. The polls closed before I got home. I had a 50-mile commute one way in ’08 and traffic was heavy because of Obama’s speech at Grant park. But even still, if I had actually made it home in time, I resolved two weeks before the election that the Constitution Party candidate was going to get my vote. McCain was a grave disappointment. He flip-flopped so much, I have no idea what he or his campaign was about. (I’m getting that same vibe about Romney which is one reason I’m so adamant against him. He seems to be running because “it’s his turn”.)

    I’ll admit I don’t know much about Bush’s presidency. I wasn’t old enough to vote in 2000 (I was 16). In 2004, I was away at college and didn’t watch TV and wasn’t politically motivated during that time. Nobody told me about absentee ballots until after I graduated in 2006, so I didn’t get a chance to vote for Bush in ’04 either.

    Right now, Perry and Cain have my support, but both of them need to step up their game and act like they want to win this, Perry especially. I’ve seen Perry in action and he usually isn’t this soft or uncomfortable-looking. I don’t know if it’s his back or his campaign advisors giving him bad advice, but he has good ideas and great leadership and he needs to bring that out more.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ….