« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Romney running away with New Hampshire

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  September 22nd, 2011 at 09:30 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

New Hampshire

Last time around, Mitt Romney took a blow when he took ‘silver’ in his neighboring state New Hampshire, losing to the man who’d been plotting to win the state since the last contested primary there, John McCain.

This time it looks like Romney is going to repeat the McCain strategy. By never having given up on the state since November 2008, Romney looks set to take the state this time around, according to the new Suffolk University/WHDH poll.

The facts: 400 likely GOP primary voters, telephone poll with no mention given of mobile handling. MoE 4.9. 50% of of the GOP LV sample are Republicans, 42% are Unenrolled or Independents, and 6% are Democrats.

The top line: Romney is way ahead. He takes 41%, as much as the next four names combined. Non-candidate Sarah Palin is included, but I don’t see how her 6% matters, even if we were to add it all to Ron Paul (14%), Jon Huntsman (10%), Rick Perry (8%), or Michele Bachmann (5%). Romney leads and it’s not even close.

How’s he doing it? The former Governor of Massachusetts is familiar with the territory, he’s familiar to the voters, many of whom are in Massachusetts media markets, and he’s been campaigning there for years. But more specifically, who’s he appealing to, I wonder?

Overall Mitt Romney has a net +49 favorability rating, 69/20. That jumps to +64 (76/12) among Republicans, while his independents figure of +37 (64/27) remains respectable. On the other hand national frontrunner Rick Perry puts up a shocking +4 (36/32) as far fewer of those polled even have an opinion of him. 33% have never heard of or are undecided about Perry, compared with 12 undecided and zero never having heard of Romney. Perry is liked among NH Republicans at +22 (43/21) but is absolutely killed among NH Independents, putting up a -14 (33/47). They want Mitt.

So, the bottom line? Independents broke 34 Romney, 19 Paul, 13 Huntsman, 9 Perry, 5 Bachmann, while Republicans gave 47 to Romney, 9 Perry, 9 Paul, 8 Huntsman, 8 Palin, 5 Bachmann, results closer to but still strikingly different from the national picture. New Hampshire’s independents are not deciding this primary, but they’re putting Mitt Romney well out of reach of the rest of the candidates.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • lookingforward

    As long as Perry doesn’t do anything to derail his bid, he will win Iowa, and then quickly pickup SC and FL after Romney wins NH. This will give him plenty of momentum going into the later races. This is Perry’s race to lose.

    Perry/Rubio 2012!

  • sayoung80913

    I always figured Romney would take NH-if he couldn’t win at least that one he would be finished anyway.

  • smitch61

    He is the choice of the establishment always has been and after all, it IS his “turn”. It is one big frickin game up in there. Romney will be the nominee and I will yet again hold my nose and vote for someone I cannot stand. At least I will vote, not sure about everybody.

    However; some in the GOP establishment here in Michigan have gotten behind Perry and have endorsed him publicly. Perry will be speaking on Monday at the Detroit economic club luncheon and will be introduced by Candice Miller. I cannot see Perry taking MI over Romney, but stranger things have happened.

  • AnnaD

    Social Security is a Ponzi scheme, according to 3 Nobel prize winning economists across the political spectrum: Republican Milton Friedman, liberal Democrat Paul Samuelson, and (ultra-liberal) Democrat and NY Times columnist Paul Krugman (yep, that one). Romney needs to admit that Perry is right. In 2008, I preferred Giuliani, but when he bowed out, I moved to Romney. A McCain-Romney ticket might have beaten Obama-Biden but Romney damaged his chance of being on a McCain ticket by his attacks on McCain (in my opinion). I can see a Perry-Romney oir Romney-Perry ticket winning in 2012, but not if Romney keeps bashing Perry. Stop it, Mitt. Admit that Perry is right. Please! And stop giving the Left weapons to use against Perry if he does take the nomination.

  • jjhlh1

    May very well win New Hampshire since he has spent so much time and money there, but the nomination is clearly Perry’s to lose. Americans need a clear choice. Romneycare proves he is Obama-lite.

  • jjhlh1

    And Romney at 41? It really makes me wonder if the NH voters are paying attention, or are they just really liberal up there?

  • acat

    No disrespect to residents of the granite state but .. 4 electoral votes, a semi-open structure, and a spotty track record for picking a winner aren’t exactly a convincing argument.

    What New Hampshire really seems to mean, and all the early States do this, is to expose weaknesses in some candidates, and – due to the secret ballot, expose any Abilene paradoxes* in polling prior to the larger States.

    In other words, New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina act as filters, not selectors… they can remove an unacceptable candidate from consideration, but they should not be read as “annointings”.

    After all, how well did winning New Hampshire work out for Hillary, Kerry, Gore, Tsongas, Buchannan**, Dukakis, and Hart?

    Mew

    * see “Abilene Paradox”

    ** chosen over Bob Dole so not as weird as it first seems.

  • Tbone

    nt

  • AnnaD

    Many MA liberals have moved to NH to escape high taxes, stupid and heartless bureaucracies and the high cost of living. So why are they shifting NH into that same direction?

  • unclefred

    “Independents” can vote in the NH primary by declaring themselves Republicans at the poll and taking a Republican primary ballot.
    Only people who are not registered with any party or registered Republican (90?) days prior to the primary may vote in the Republican primary. Voting in a party’s primary automatically registers you. You may file at the poll to unregister after you vote. As you might imagine when one party’s primary is uninteresting there is a fair amount of crossover voting where people drop their true affiliation so that they can “help” the other party pick the nominee.

    400 sampled
    24 – Dem — who apparently plan to drop their registration.
    173 – Ind/other
    200 – Rep
    3 – unregistered
    —-
    194 – conservative
    167 – moderate
    28 – liberal
    —-
    It would be interesting to ask if they voted in the 2008 primary and if so which party.

    I believe that Romney’s dominance in this poll is solely due to name recognition and the fact that primary is “open”. I suspect the open nature of the primary is also why Huntsman is at 10% in NH will he is at 1% elsewhere.

    I don’t see how we can take the results of a poll where 50% of the sample are not Republicans as a measure of a candidate’s strength with Republican voters. This overstates Ronmey’s strength and dilutes that of his opponents.

  • rememberthealamo

    Winning a state you’ve spent every waking moment in for 8 years doesn’t really say much. Perry winning Texas won’t be news either.

    The fact the 2 moderate Repubs are #1 and 2 says alot about NH Republicans. The state motto of “Live Free or Die” must be sorely diminished at times like these. Perhaps it should read “Live as Free as the Government Lets Me ….”

  • Scope

    any states voters that put Ron Paul second and Jon Huntsman third are in a world all their own. It’s like a fight between two extremes with Romney the Obama- lite choice at one end, and Paul being a part of the radical right at the other end.

  • unclefred

    they still want the services that they took for granted.
    Liberals have a hard time understanding that there is a direct relationship to the size and breath of government and its tax bite. The tide turned back to the right in 2010 in a big way. Now the question is can the Republican hold their legislative majorities and take the governor’s mansion.

  • jjhlh1

    It makes no sense to me. Some things are beyond explanation.

  • septembergurl

    did in 2007 at this time. He led for most of 2007 and 2008 but, as we know, lost to John McCain. This time he also leads with a wide margin and has consistently for this year since polling started.

    You seem to find this surprising, and compelling in some way, and oddly attribute it to Mittens following what you call the “McCain Plan” (focussing on retail campaigning in one state, as McCain did in 2000 and 2008 successfully). Actually, Romney is following the “Romney plan” whereby the candidate (Dem or Rep) from neighboring Massachusetts wins the State. (In the 1964 primary, ex-US Senator from Mass,Henry Cabot Lodge won a write in campaign against Goldwater)Name recognition, familiarity, acceptability, having a vacation house on Lake Winepesaukee, coming on as Moderate Mitt instead of Conservative Mitt all come in to play. Also, since Perry’s entry, Mitt has been forced to campaign in places other than New Hampshire — Iowa and South Carolina — where he is likely to lose.

    No, Huntsman is the one using the McCain Plan (Sunbelt fiscal conservative with annoying moderate quirks) plays to the NH desire for upsets and mavericks. And the real news in this poll is that it’s working.

    So, romney, Paul and Huntsman are rising, everybody else fading. The contest is between these three. My money of course is on Huntsman.

  • unclefred

    Which actively imports libertarians into the state with the express purpose of taking control of the state government. That is part of the reason for Paul’s popularity there. As for Huntsman see my comment above.

  • red_oakster

    Romney needs to show he can win outside of his adopted state or he’s just the Paul Tsongas of 2012, a one-trick pony

  • clintonformccain

    The pollsters, media, and pundits are determined to make it seem like this contest is more developed than it is. In reality, even likely primary voters are not that engaged at this point, other than perhaps noting that election season is just starting to get underway. The candidates are still doing the preliminary stuff — house parties and town halls with 50 people.

    We are seeing what amounts to little more than the trash talking and posturing at the weigh-in before a heavyweight boxing match. The bell hasn’t even rung. These polls mean nothing, one way or the other.

    BTW, any pundit who includes commentary on Cain, Huntsman, or Santorum as if they are credible candidates is just filling column inches, not providing serious insight.

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    care about the economy and lean libertarian. A lot of you guys don’t want to hear this, but NH is actually a good bellweather for the electability of a candidate – as you do need to win Independents to win an election. I believe the Alamanac of American Politics states that NH actually has the lowest % of church participation/attendence in the country. That is why George Bush struggled here, its why Ovide Lamontagne got destroyed by Jean Shaheen in his first gubernatorial bid, and its why Rick Perry will struggle b/c a candidate leading a prayer rally like he’s a preacher doesn’t sell in a state with “Live Free or Die” on its license plate – that motto applies to both economic and social issues, not just economic. The surprise for me is that someone like Gary Johnson didn’t catch on in NH more – NH would seem to have been a good fit for him.

  • unclefred

    Huntsman is not going to win NH. He is largely unacceptable to the Republicans who will vote in the primary. The goal of the “independents” who vote in the primary falls into a couple of camps.

    1: Prevent a conservative from winning NH and strengthen a crippled RINO to run against Obama while splintering the party. Romney (Romneycare) is by far preferable to this bunch.

    2: Pick a moderate who has the national strength an money to go the distance. Once again Romney is preferred. To knock off Ronmey, Huntsman would have to win both these groups overwhelmingly.

    Huntsman will fail to do this. He will get some support from these groups and will hurt Romney, but not enough to be a factor.

    Paul is Paul he will win his typical percentage in the primary, adjusted for libertarian activism.

    BTW Perry is up from June, I’m not sure how that is fading. — Just sayin…

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Romney is *more* dominant among Republicans in NH than he is among non-Republicans.

    He leads by 38 points over Perry among Republicans. He leads by 27 points over Paul among all the primary LVs.

  • Scope

    and knowing the residents of the state better than someone from outside the state, one must still consider that you are but one resident who is speaking from your own chosen political ideology. I’m sure that all NH residents don’t share that ideology, though there does seem to be a healthy dose of libertarianism in NH. Hence Ron Paul placing second in polling. What I would disagree with is that NH is much of a bellweather as to electability. Ron Paul has been around since his libertarian run in the 80′s, and with his third try, he still polls pretty consistently around the 6% range with a few polls putting him in the low teens. I can understand Romney being in the lead as he is not a conservative, but it gets a little confusing as to why the live free or die residents would want a big government president, who would do the opposite of letting you live free or die.

  • wonkish1

    50, 42, 6 is in my opinion BS party id numbers from a state that has had unbelievable GOP party registration gains this last year.

    Its a damn Uni poll to boot. I don’t trust it and it will be an outlier poll at RCP now and a few weeks from now.

  • Scope

    where a head of the GOP was kicked off for supporting third party libertarians on the ballots?

    I also read that Perry picked up something like 22 republican endorsements in NH. Are they the oddballs up there?

  • defenseconservative

    Neither of these states is representative of America, whether in terms of demographics, economics, or politics. So the fact that a candidate does well there tells us nothing about how he would do elsewhere.

    Moreover, NH and IA have both often predicted the winner of the nomination (not to mention the President) inaccurately. So NH Governor/Senator John Sununu was way off the mark when he said that “the people of New Hampshire pick presidents.”

  • jomo2009

    Good to see that the ol’ swing-o-meter is warming up in the bullpen and ready for a very eventful 2012.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Swingometer (both Swingometers actually, Presidential and House) is ready to go. :)

  • acat

    It should, after all, be “in play”…

    Mew

  • acat

    (hat tip to The People’s Cube)

    Mew

  • acat

    (end transmission)

  • edintexas

    Ah, that must be why the last 3 Presidents did not win NH.

  • Scope

    n/t

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    There are few enough contested Senate seats that I feel secure that I can model those individually.

  • renl57

    Folks who fled MA for NH (including several of my own friends) are NOT liberals. Certainly not by Northeast standards.

    But if you really think that Mitt Romney is a liberal, then you’ll also think that these new residents of NH are liberals.