Quinnipiac in OH and PA: Romney leads, Perry leads, Santorum flops

By: Neil Stevens (Diary) | September 28th, 2011 at 12:00 PM |

RESIZE: AAA

Romney Perry

Quinnipiac put out a pair of new polls, focusing on the Republican primary race in Pennsylvania and in Ohio. They have some problems that limit their utility, but I believe they will get much attention today because of their top line results, so it’s time to take a look anyway.

Why the attention? Romney bucks the national trend again to lead in both states.

The facts: These are university polls of registered Republican voters, mobile and land line handling. 423 Republicans in Ohio for an MoE of 4.8, 541 Republicans in Pennsylvania for an MoE of 4.2.

Yes, unlike some polls we’re seeing, Quinnipiac hasn’t taken the step to filter down to likely primary voters, possibly due to the fact that Ohio’s and Pennsylvania’s primaries aren’t due anytime soon. But still, the poll show this to be a two man race in Ohio with Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Perry 24-20 in Ohio, and no other candidate in double figures. Pennsylvania hasn’t given up on home state Rick Santorum though, putting him in third at 12 behind Romney at 18 and Perry at 16.

In Quinnipiac’s Ohio polling this is a huge shift, naturally, from the previous poll in July. Perry gained 12 and Romney gained 8, while Sarah Palin lost 6 and Michele Bachmann lost 8. From the last Pennsylvania poll in August, we see Perry gaining 8 with Romney losing 2, Santorum losing 2, Palin losing 4, and Bachmann losing 5. I see no clear trend here, but just large shifts in a race that has moved forward for two busy months.

Non-candidate Sarah Palin of course skews things. How might the poll look without her? In Ohio there would be little difference, if the second choices are to be believed. Romney takes 25% of her support (up 6), Perry takes 21% (up 13), and Bachmann has crashed down to 4 (down 16). Quinnipiac did not ask this question in Pennsylvania, nor was a poll without Santorum taken.

These polls are difficult to read as they don’t winnow out people who won’t vote in the primaries, and because they are taken so infrequently. But apart from the Santorum blip in his home state, the polls confirms it: it’s a two man race. And as it turns out, in Ohio Quinnpiac polled the two man race. Perry leads it 42-38. This question would be irrelevant for early states like Iowa, but for these states it just might matter.

So take it as you like. Romney leads. Perry leads. The Sarah Palin distortion effect is less relevant than it once was. It’s a two man race, because Rick Santorum can’t even break past third place in his own state.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Tags: 2012, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Ohio, Pennsylvania, President, Quinnipiac University, Republicans, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Sarah Palin

COMMENTS

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freentn

!
http://nerds4cain.com Brookhaven

Meanwhile, the headline on Drudge is a poll showing Herman Cain 39-34 against Obama.

Considering 75% of people polled have never heard of Herman Cain, that’s a great number.

If we can ever get rid of the self fulfilling prophecy that Herman Cain can’t win, he’d win handily.
chipbennett

…both races are within the MoE: whether multi-person or two-person races, all results indicate a statistical dead-heat between Perry and Romney.

Interesting, though, to start to get some state-by-state poll results!
Repair_Man_Jack

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ron-Paul-Bests-Obamain-Latest-bw-3821734650.html?x=0&.v=1

Propaganda? Or perhaps a measure of just how weak BHO really is….
Aaron Gardner

I am sure you didn’t reverse those numbers on purpose, right?
minister_of_war

…But the link Drudge sends you to doesn’t seem to work for me.

From Drudge:

IOWA: Romney 21%, Bachmann 15%, Perry 14%, Paul 12%…

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/
minister_of_war

nt
minister_of_war

nt
tyman

This may not be exactly on topic, but Dick Morris wasn’t shy about his dislike of Perry on Boortz’s show.

Morris has offered his strategery to all of the candidates (even though he says he will not endorse), except for Perry because, he says, he doesn’t like him.

Just interesting, considering the Fox News shift and Dick Morris is an FNC contributor.

If those polls are right, that looks good for Perry considering he has only been running for a month and a half.

By the way, in talking about Chris Christie, Rush just mentioned the establishment not wanting Cain, Perry or Bachmann in that order. Hmmm, I wonder why he left the others out?
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Being within the MoE does not make a poll statistically meaningless.

Romney 24-Perry 20 MoE 4.8 I show giving Romney a 66% chance of being ahead. That’s no dead heat.

In the heads-up, Perry 42-Romney 38 MoE 4.8 I get the same percentage.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Hitting it later today.
minister_of_war

Btw – I don’t know why my last comment double-posted. I only pressed enter one time.
minister_of_war

I can’t for some reason.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

You see, it’s about winning. Nobody cares about a nobody. Not when the nobody has been running for months and is still ineffective at getting anybody to know or care who he is.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

.
freentn

in 2008 and ObamneyCare was not an issue then. If Perry can articulate all the problems with romneyCare in Massachusetts he will beat him in Ohio and PA.

Or any other candidate who attacks romney on obamneyCare could jump into the lead.
minister_of_war

That’s what I get for logging onto RedState at work I guess.
mort

and the media choose our nominee? The race is over when the delegates at the convention cast a majority ballot for someone. They are free to vote for whomever they wish, regardless of the polls and primary results. Best make sure you elect delegates that will vote for your candidate. Easier said than done as it is often inside party people that win the delegate spots and they usually just bow to the party leaders.
Scope

may on his own dislike Perry, but being a part of the new direction at Fox, he is not allowed to like Perry in Public, nor to say anything positive about him. Heck, from the article many of us read, Fox people must now go easy on Obama when he is the subject, but Perry is open to any type of criticism or ridicule, but lay off Obama. Do you know of one Fox host, or regular that has spoken highly of Perry in recent weeks, one person, just one? That speaks of a concerted effort on the part of Fox to control the message, and to choose the winner of the GOP nom. You can’t put that many people in a room and get them to all agree on anything, it isn’t human nature to do so. They have marching orders and have chosen to honor their paychecks rather than their principles, if they even have any.
Scope

bring up Perry’s immigration policies in the Bortz interview?
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

I’m sorry you’re mad because the people aren’t going the way you like, to the point you have to concoct this wild fantasy that Republicans are sheep led by polls.
tyman

I apologize in advance for not typing underlining the link. I’m just quickly copy and pasting while I’m working.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44701749/ns/politics-decision_2012/#.ToNW9OzKT1E

I guess this makes Marco Rubio not a conservative, huh?
Scope

based on my own district which is Cantor country. As much as many loath some of the things that Cantor has said and done, myself included, you won’t get anywhere near the party uppers in this district if you don’t put Cantor on the same pedestal they do. No one ever even primaries Cantor, and he never even has a strong Democrat challenger. The party uppers have their R hero, and that’s the end of it.
rightwingmom52

What does this do to the field?

here
squeek71

than Herman in Rasmussen’s match-ups, and only by 2 points!! And that is with Herman only having half the name ID of Romney, probably.

I agree with you completely!! Go Herman!!!!
tyman

I had to turn it off in disgust when Morris said that. I think the interview was almost over at that point.

In response to your previous post, no I can’t think of a single Fox host that has spoken highly of Perry.

Sean Hannity did have Perry on last Wednesday night, but I’m still thinking that Hannity had an agenda with his questions.

Based on the article I sent earlier this week, yes, Fox has a move away from the right to get more viewership (a la NASCAR…they’ll lose their core in an attempt to get more).
dkm466

Redstate doesn’t get it. Romney is un-electable in the South. Even if you pull off you house slippers and put on your marching shoes … nothing changes. I’m just sorry and politely disagree with Redstates posters. Ronmey can’t get the votes in the South and Perry can’t carry woman or true conservatives.

Its time for a change. Redstate board please read these 12 step carefully and maybe, just maybe you will get a life outside of the Rino Addicts Anonymous

Step 1 – We admitted we were powerless over our Rino addiction – that our lives had become unmanageable
Step 2 – Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore you and your Rino to sanity
Step 3 – Made a decision to turn your Rino support and trivia over to the care of God as you understood God
Step 4 – Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of our Rino
Step 5 – Admitted to God, to ourselves and to another human being the exact nature of our Rino’s wrongs
Step 6 – Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defective Rino thoughts
Step 7 – Humbly asked God to remove our Rino supporting shortcomings
Step 8 – Made a list of all persons we had harmed with spam, and became willing to make a Redstate admends to them all
Step 9 – Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure true conservative or others
Step 10 – Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly retract and quit posting
Step 11 – Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God as we understood God, praying only for true conservatives to carry the 2012 elections
Step 12 – Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other Rino addicts, and to practice these conservative principles in all our affairs
mort

I am just trying to educate people that their vote for delegates is more important than for president.
I will admit being annoyed that the media will try to determine a winner long before the vote at the convention is cast. It is up to us to try and prevent that.
You would think every tea party in the country will get people to run for those delegate spots. I might be wrong, but it is possible that some delegates are not elected and are appointed by the big boys in the capital, but at least in Pennsylvania, some are elected by the rank and file.
Scope

Everyone believes that Fox is the only MSM channel that leans more right than any of the others. I’ve been watching Fox hire more and more Democrats, and have more and more Democrats on as guests over a period of time. Like the frog in the pot who slowly boils to death. If everyone wanted liberal points of view and commentary why not just watch MSNBC or any one of the other lefty channels? I hope the Fox ratings go south, but it was disappointing to see they had one of the largest viewer audiences with the Dancing with the Candidates auditions last Thurs. It was almost as bad as Nancy Grace’s wardrobe malfunction on Dancing with the Stars. Surely Grace was set up, and went along with it when they packed her into a dress 4 sizes too small. No, I didn’t watch the show, but I saw the cheap gawdy porn posted on other sites.
freentn

for Florida to move up their primary.

romney lost Florida in 2008. Iowa, Early Loses in Iowa, South Carolina & Florida could lead to a domino effect that knocks romney out of the race early.
Scope

when I typed in the address. Who is supporting Perry’s comments?
Scope

to something a little stronger than anti-Rinoism.
tyman

if Tom Bergeron hadn’t said anything when they cut away from the slip, I don’t think anyone would have known because it happened so fast (half a second).

Surely with all that shakin’ goin’ on, somethin’s bound to pop out. The way Obama’s been dropping his g’s, that almost sounds like something he’d say.

Fox is just disappointing as they do this. I can’t figure out why they have Bob Beckel. He adds no substantive discussion other than that to issue 4 letter words and DNC talking points.
tyman

In fact, in the FL legislative session in 2003 and 2004,
tyman

I hope this works.

Rubio introduced a similar in state tuition bill in Florida in 2003-04.
tyman

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44701749/ns/politics-decision_2012/#.ToNW9OzKT1E

If you highlight the text, right-click, copy and then paste in browser address, that should be pretty quick.

Sorry, again for trying to do this on the quick!
Scope

Rubio has to be one of the most highly respected conservative voices in the GOP today. How many had been hoping for a Perry/Rubio ticket? That could be a boost for Perry.
gekster

….
freentn

the Texas In-State Tuition Law similar to Florida’s Fair Policy.

It looks like a tacit endorsement of Gov Perry.

From the report on Jeb Bush’s email to fellow Republican:

“With Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry under attack for supporting tuition breaks for children of illegal immigrants, former Gov. Jeb Bush on Tuesday offered some solidarity by calling a similar proposal in Florida ?fair policy

I think that is a fair policy,” Bush said in an e-mail to National Journal on Tuesday, adding that the students who benefit from the tuition breaks find themselves in the United States through ?no fault of their own.”
fightnright

and thanks for the terrific breakdowns of the latest presidential polls, Neil – Concise, comprehensive, and thoughtfully framed with interesting questions and insights into breaking results from the most important contests. Only one of the good reasons I check in every break at Redstate to follow the state of the race.

“I think we ought to suspend, perhaps, elections for Congress for two years and just tell them we won’t hold it against them, whatever decisions they make, to just let them help this country recover,” she said. “I really hope that someone can agree with me on that. … You want people who don’t worry about the next election.” Beverly Perdue, NC Governor

If you don’t believe that Democrats will do what they say, then don’t vote. But be warned: your 2016 vote may come too late. Vote Republican in 2012!
freentn

“About one dozen states offer some form of tuition assistance to the children of illegal immigrants. Rubio, the son of Cuban exiles, was the co-sponsor of such a bill in 2003 and 2004, before he became speaker of the Florida state House. Bush, whose wife was born and raised in Mexico and who speaks fluent Spanish, also championed the legislation.”
kyconservative

If Romney wins Iowa the GOP primary and nomination process may be over but the race is far but resolved. With Romney as the GOP nominee you will have a mass movement develop, centered in the South but active all over the country, and a conservative will be drafted to run on an independent tea Party or other Third Party ballot. You will see 15-20% of the conservative vote split off and support this ticket. All of the GOP insiders should stop a minute and think and ask themselves if this is really what they want.
tyman

I want to make Washington, DC as inconsequential as possible.

Even after Perry’s debate performance, Rush is still calling Perry a conservative.

Other than what the Republican establishment or the media has written, I’m just not sure what has made people think that Rick Perry is a RINO.

Scope, if you were able to read the column about Rubio’s comments, here’s a quote from Mitt Romney…

“Perry?s leading opponent, Mitt Romney, was ready with a comeback at a forum organized by the American Conservative Union the following day. “I think if you’re opposed to illegal immigration, it doesn’t mean that you don’t have a heart. It means that you have a heart and a brain,” he shot back.”

See, to make a point, Mitt Romney has to lie (that’s right, I said it in my Mark Levin voice) about what Perry said, as well as cover up his own position.

I’m still waiting to get “Fed Up!” from the public library. I can’t imagine a RINO writing a book like that.

Again, if Cain had been in public office in any capacity, I’m sure he would have done something that doesn’t make him a true conservative in someone’s mind.
tyman

I don’t know that ideological purity should be the issue, just a common sense solution. At some point, common sense and pragmatism have to take over.

I still don’t know that I want Rubio to leave the Senate, but if Perry could get his endorsement, that would be BIG!
freentn

of the Midwest and West. romney only won 11 States in 2008, none in the South, But you are wrong about true conservatives and women obviously being that many have already expressed a willingness to vote for Perry.
http://nerds4cain.com Brookhaven

Cain 34 Obama 39
Perry 38 Obama 44
Romney 41 Obama 44
Santorum 31 Obama 45
Gingrich 30 Obama 48
Bachmann 32 Obama 48

(1) Cain is within the same range as every other GOP candidate

(2) The undecideds are significantly larger for Cain than in any other race. If you allocate the undecides according to the Dick Morris rule, that 2/3 of undecides go to the challenger, the results look like this:

Cain 52 Obama 48
Perry 50 Obama 50
Romney 51 Obama 49
Santorum 47 Obama 53
Gingrich 45 Obama 55
Bachmann 45 Obama 55

Of couse that is just an estimate, but so is the original poll.

Herman Cain may not be in the top tier, but he is clearly on the cusp of becomming making it a big 3 race instead of a big 2.
http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

nt
http://nerds4cain.com Brookhaven

“Data released earlier today shows that voters nationwide are evenly divided as to whether or not Cain is qualified to be president ? 30% say yes, 33% no, and 37% are not sure.”

Everyone knows Romney, people think they have a feel for Perry, but Cain still has to get his story out. How many of that 70% that is a no or not sure knows that Cain was chariman of a Federal Reserve Bank? Or that he is an information systems expert? Not many, I’d venture. Most only know him as the pizza guy.

The more he can drop that no qualified number by getting his background out to people, the more likely he is to take this election. People like Cain, they’re just not sure he’s qualified. They’re not sure he’s qualifed, because they don’t know his full background.
rightwingmom52

That is a scenario I’d like to see unless losing delegates becomes an issue for FL.
freentn

this will be an unconventional election.Such a 3rd Party Anti-romney Split could get more popular votes than romney especially if hillary is the democRat nominee. Of course, it is not likely that a 3rd Party candidate will win the Presidency but with romney as the Republican nominee hillary would surely win because manyindependents would see little difference between romney and hillary. And many Republican conservatives who can not stand romney would stay home rather than vote for a 3rd Party Candidate.

DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT ENDORSING ANY 3rd PARTY CAMPAIGN SO I DON’T WANT ANY PERSONAL ATTACKS BY romneyBots, I am simply stating the obvious. The Anti-romney sentiment is second only to the Anti-bo sentiment.
Scope

that if you oppose illegal immigration you have a heart and a brain. He took the entire issue in one feel swoop and turned it into a knock on Perry, and ignored the fact that Perry’s comment was about the children of illegals who are here through no fault of their own. Sanitarium also did pretty much the same in the debate.

In one way I want Perry to really start coming back and not allowing his opponents, and everyone in the media to misstate and define his words. OTOH, there is so much being thrown out there about Perry that he would spend all of his time just being on defense, which would not be helpful. Now today we have the hispanic hater loony Tancredo putting out an article stating the same things that J. Rubin did calling Perry an islamist and sharia supporter.

I wish Perry or his campaign would start publishing articles every where they could talking about his economic and jobs ideas and accomplishments, and just drive the conversation back to what is the priority issue with the voters. As I’ve said, I love Perry’s positions and accomplishments with tort and loser pays legal reforms, and his hate for the massive over regulation which would open up jobs and economic growth. We know he is for drill here drill yesterday which would also open up jobs like crazy.

I just heard a clip of Perry’s wife promising that Perry will be there in full at the next debate. Fingers crossed.
http://jeffemanuel.net Jeff Emanuel

Thanks but no thanks.
izoneguy
http://nerds4cain.com Brookhaven

A state that exists on government farm subsidies (Iowa) and a New England state are hardly good picks to kick the Republican primaries.

Any red state that can jump in early is better for the GOP (OK, better for conservatives anyway).
http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

to share.

For example, what’s the “state of the Party” in the counties that comprise Cantor’s district in terms of the percentage of PC slots that are filled? Or just in your locale and county? You mention there are many who loath some of the things that Cantor has said and done — are there very many of those people that you know where you live and are they involved in the Party?

For example, last April penguin2 wrote a Diary about her experiences inside the VA Party where she lives:

http://www.redstate.com/penguin2/2010/04/16/saturday-morning-breakfasts-evening-meetings-joining-your-local-gop/

Any thoughts you could share would be appreciated. No pressure, just thought I would ask.

Thank you,

ColdWarrior
freentn

too because it would benefit a conservative candidate and consoldiate the now fragmented conservative vote. I am tired of the TINY LIBERAL STATE of New Hampshire having so much weight in Republican Primaries.
http://nerds4cain.com Brookhaven

If Romney is the standard bearer, you’ll have (1) an attempt at a 3rd party by somebody, and (2) people sitting on their hands.

Like it or not, a significant percentage of conservative/tea-party voters are not going to vote for John McCain II.

Argue till you’re blue in the face. Scream, yell about how stupid they’re being, it won’t change a thing.

The powers that be that are pushing Romney need to quit whistling in the dark about this. Romney would bring this problem along with him.
kyconservative

I think we should draw names (of states of course) out of a hat every four years and let all states play the key role in selecting nominees. My home state has its primary in late May so we never get a voice.
freentn

Rush just watch out for Rick Perry in the next debate and played a clip of Perry’s Wife saying that they know that he did poorly in the last debate, that he has never had a debate coach and that she was going to it that he is prepared for the next debate.

I LIKE this Woman’s style!
kyconservative

He just has a less regimented/deliberative presentation. We put far too much emphasis on style over substance these days anyway. His answers for immigration and the vaccine were controversial but effective and probably help him in November if he gets the nomination.
kyconservative

He just has a less regimented/deliberative presentation. We put far too much emphasis on style over substance these days anyway. His answers for immigration and the vaccine were controversial but effective and probably help him in November if he gets the nomination.
CincoSolas_del_Bronx

His Rino terrifies me.
http://nerds4cain.com Brookhaven

and poorly in states we have a chance to win.

New Hampshire nomiates people that do well in New Hampshire, New York, Mass, and California–all states we don’t stand a chance of winning.

We need to nominate people that do well in red and purple states, not dark blue states.

One think I’d like to see is a pro-rating system that gives states with lots of Republicans more say in the nominating process, and states with fewer Republicans less say in the nomnating process.

One thing we could do is allocate an additonal convention delegate for each GOP congressman or senator from the state. States like Alabama that have a lot of GOP congressmen and senators would have an extra say in who the nominee would be. States like New York that have few GOP elected officials would have a reduced say so.

Not fair to NY? There’s a simple solution: NY can elect more Republicans, and next convention they’ll have a bigger say.
freentn

if he wasn’t a Conservative.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_083111/content/01125111.guest.html

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_051811/content/01125109.guest.html

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_081511/content/01125114.guest.html

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_062011/content/01125107.guest.html
sdsundevil

in the next month or so. The momentum is on his side and he’ll start garnering more attention in debates, etc. His 9-9-9 plan is the best so far in terms of it’s simplicity. That will help him a lot. I don’t think anyone truly care that he doesn’t have political experience, but that is his shortcoming as far as the media and opposition are concerned.

Perry needs to stage a comeback rather quickly or he may be toast. The money is going to start flowing to the ‘winners’ and he is currently headed in the wrong direction. Romney’s going to be there until the end based on his large bankroll and milquetoast persona which doesn’t help nor hurt him enough to make him the clear favorite or take him out. He’s just the de facto choice for those who can’t commit to anyone else.
http://nerds4cain.com Brookhaven

I’ve noticed this trend among the GOP establishment going all the way back to Reagan’s day.

They don’t want conservatism. Anytime a conservative breaks through, it’s like you’re fighting two opponents: the Democrats and the GOP establishment.
kyconservative

I thought a system was in place already to reward states with additional delegates if they voted GOP in the last Presidential election. If not, this should be done. No way voters in NH, NY, Cali and other hard blue states should be allowed to saddle us with a RINO nominee
kyconservative

Winning with a moderate is losing in the end, since when the moderate’s big government statism fails, conservatives take the blame because the President is a Republican.

Eventually, if the GOP keeps nominating WallStreet/big government, statist RINOs, true conservatives will break away and form a new party. This happened in the 1850s when the Whigs divided over slavery. The anti-slavery Whigs quit the party and set up their own.

Another possibility for conservatives would be to set up a regional conservative party to compete with the Democrats only in the South and with the GOP to remain as competition in the other parts of the country. this happens today in Germany with the CDU/CSU. The CSU operates only in Baveria (I think) and has only a loose relationship with the main center-right CDU in the rest of the country. If the South excluded the GOP and set up a conservative party, then about every Presidential election would be deadlocked and therefore go to the House. Under this system, the southern Conservative Party would likely has as much or more leverage than they have today in the GOP nominating process. Plus, conservatives could operate as the largest bloc of members in the House and Senate and could have true conservatives rather than RINOs as House and Senate leaders.
kyconservative

Winning with a moderate is losing in the end, since when the moderate’s big government statism fails, conservatives take the blame because the President is a Republican.

Eventually, if the GOP keeps nominating WallStreet/big government, statist RINOs, true conservatives will break away and form a new party. This happened in the 1850s when the Whigs divided over slavery. The anti-slavery Whigs quit the party and set up their own.

Another possibility for conservatives would be to set up a regional conservative party to compete with the Democrats only in the South and with the GOP to remain as competition in the other parts of the country. this happens today in Germany with the CDU/CSU. The CSU operates only in Baveria (I think) and has only a loose relationship with the main center-right CDU in the rest of the country. If the South excluded the GOP and set up a conservative party, then about every Presidential election would be deadlocked and therefore go to the House. Under this system, the southern Conservative Party would likely has as much or more leverage than they have today in the GOP nominating process. Plus, conservatives could operate as the largest bloc of members in the House and Senate and could have true conservatives rather than RINOs as House and Senate leaders.
chihank

As a rule of thumb, whatever Morris predicts, the opposite will happen. Remember in 2007, Morris was saying Hillary was a lock for 2008 and that Condi Rice was the GOP’s only hope. LOL!
rkcon

Florida: Romney up 6 over Perry, Gingrich 3rd

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/romney-up-in-florida.html

Iowa: Romney 6 over Bachmann
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/

If nobody else enters the race, this is going to be finished pretty quickly.
http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

…ill-tempered engines of random destruction that no sane man wishes to provoke into madness.

Which is not actually me, either. Me, I’m just a well-adjusted troll with site moderation privileges.
rkcon

Are you saying we should be giving a blank check to the convention delegates? Elect non-affiliated delegates all over the place? That’s bizarre.

The delegates will vote for the candidate that they were mandated to support. People just need to vote for the candidate of their preference.
freentn

If he were picked as a VP choice and BO picks Hillary as his VP and then resigns, the democRats and the birthers will attack Rubio.
rkcon

Just like he praised Bush a lot. And other notable RINOS.
tyman

Scope,

I almost forgot that Malkin and Coulter are FNC contributors, too.

Malkin has been bashing Perry relentlessly on the HPV thing.

I think Ann Coulter is a put on myself to sell books. She’s just nuts for Christie. Hello? Global warming? Liberal judges? Crickets.

Great for the fiscal side, but Andrew Cuomo has been surprisingly fiscally minded in New York.

As Rush said, parts of Christie’s speech had signs of John McCain; I thought the same thing BEFORE Rush even took to the air.

And, further, Rush told someone that if Christie gets in, it will be to mess up Cain, Perry and Bachmann. Naturally, Christie would take votes from Romney, but I think Christie would purposfully mess up the conservatives. How? By deflecting criticism TO THEM AND AWAY FROM ROMNEY.
rkcon

The other states will move up too. It just means that the action will start earlier. Christmas in Iowa.
rkcon

nt
rkcon

Subsidizing higher education is still a liberal policy that no true conservative should support.
Bill S

.
http://jeffemanuel.net Jeff Emanuel
mort

but in Pennsylvania, no delegate is mandated to support any candidate as far as the Republican Party goes. The democrats are definitely different and other states might be different.
I have been getting this message out and asking for correction where it applies. My info on Pennsylvania comes from a current state senator, who was the third ranking Republican in the house when he was there and who teaches a government class occasionally at Penn State.
It is not that we should give delegates a blank check, we do give it to them. And for good reason:
Suppose you are in a state with a primary in February and by some cockymainy set of rules based on the popular vote, Paul is to get 100 delegate votes, Romney 75, and Bachman 45. When the convention occurs six months later, only Perry and Cain are in the race. Are your delegates supposed to cast ballots for someone who has dropped out?
OR should they listen seriously to the speeches of the remaining candidates and discuss the platform and positions with their fellow delegates before casting a ballot, all the time trying to determine which candidate can win!!!!?
mort

which candidate can save the country!!
tyman

He called the landslide in 2010 but, as I recall, he went WAY too far with how many seats Republicans would pick up.
http://www.erickerickson.org Erick Erickson

Let me make it clear that I am the power of which you speak in step 2,

in step 3 I made sure I understood myself as that power,

in step 4 I fearlessly determined that one of the great hinderances of our ability to fight the RINOs are the nut jobs who give the rest of us a bad name,

in step 5 admitted to myself that I am right,

got to step 6 and decided you were worth banning,

banned your nutty self in step 7,

and then I sat back down to judge the quick and dead among the RedState community.
Aaron Gardner

nt
wonkish1

While caucus voters weed through some candidates over the next couple weeks.
Aaron Gardner

So awesome.
mort

The race to the nomination is not over until the delegates cast their ballots next summer. Very much can happen between now and then AND even things can happen from the day the last primary is held until the convention that could sway the delegates, even draft someone who had dropped out earlier.
I am sick of the media’s influence on our process to nominate a candidate.
rkcon

I’m not sure if you understand how the election process works.

Delegates will vote for the candidate they were elected to vote in the convention unless the guy dies or there’s such a huge scandal he renounces to the nomination.
A_Texan

The polling dates for these polls are largely late last week. We’re still waiting for a poll (other than the Zogby non-poll) that reflects any post-straw-poll bounce.

I’m guessing that Cain has moved up to a solid third. Much for him will depend on his performance in the next debate to see if he can become the non-Romney.
explodinghead

I just saw this NewsMax interview on the Daily Caller and Perry seems a lot more relaxed than the debates and is very strong on border security. He also says his heartless comment was inappropriate and a poor choice of words. (yeah, ya think? 5.34 min). He says in-state tuition was a state issue and he would not do that Federally. He explains the Federal failure to secure the border and how he has had to deal with the consequences of that. he talks property rights, passing voter ID, vetoing a bill that would have given illegals a drivers license etc. in Texas. The interview includes social security explanation, EPA overreach, Justice Department (Gibson guitars), Israel and much more. It is a long interview 17 minutes, but I like that better than a thirty-second sound bite.

http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/28/rick-perry-concedes-heartless-was-a-poor-word-choice/

Let’s get all the info out there on all the candidates, the good, the bad and the ugly. Then we can make an informed decision.
rkcon

In that example you give, they’d do whatever their candidate would tell them to do: probably vote for the winner or yes, still vote for the someone who has dropped out. It happens all the time.

It’d only be relevant in the case of a split convention: if none of the candidates has a majority of the delegates. But that has no real chance of happening in the Republican primary because so many states are winner-take-all. Even if it happened, I bet the winner of the popular vote would be the nominee.

So, I wouldn’t worry too much about it. Whoever gets the majority of the delegates will be the nominee. Primary voters will decide this, not delegates.
mort

In the Republican Party, Pennsylvania, at least, the delegates are free to vote for whomever they wish.
This is not an election, it is a nomination. There are no rules in the constitution for it. Each party is free to make their own rules.
We do ELECT the delegates, however.
Sorry, but “Delegates will vote for the candidate they were elected to vote” makes no sense to me whatsoever. Our delegates do not have a name of a presidential candidate behind them. If I vote for Jo Pa for delegate knowing he will vote for Herman Cain when Jo gets there, that would be one thing. But it is incumbent on us to find out which delegates on the ballot are supporting which presidential candidates so we can vote for the right delegate.
I agree it is confusing to anyone who has grown up thinking you are voting for president in the primary.
Best thing to do is to run for delegate, then next summer you can vote for the person you think will save the country.
I still welcome education on the matter.
CincoSolas_del_Bronx

to avoid disproportion between original and counterfeit:

Oliphaunt.

And you’re no troll–just a teddy bear … mit Glock.
Scope

can have devestating consequences down the road.
http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

The second one I shall remind silent on.
mort

primary voters choose the delegates
delegates choose the nominee
thanks for the new piece of info – there are actually states where the delegates are mandated to cast a ballot for the winner of the popular vote in the state????
Are you even sure that is the way it is in your state?
rkcon

I’m not even sure how can a conservative support subsidizing higher education. It’d be tough for me to make the case for politicians using others people money to subsidize others’ higher education and not, say, health care.

Maybe there’s a conservative reasoning for those subsidies, but I’ve never met it.
mort

then if I would not have the free will to vote for who I thought best?
rkcon

There are far worse and more urgent things to worry about, btw. This is pretty much a non-issue to me.

My biggest problem in regards to this was Perry’s Obamaesque attack on those who disagree with him.
Aaron Gardner

People get in-state tuition rates because they pay taxes in the state where the University resides. It isn’t a subsidy.

In fact, if you think those who live out of state and don’t pay taxes into the system should get the same rate as those who do, you are the one supporting a subsidy for those who live out of state.

You can turn in your “TrueConservative” credentials with the secretary on your way out.
acat

Just sayin’

Mew
lineholder

Against Cain, (with Cain’s name recognition at 51% according to Gallup) Obama’s favorability drops to less than 40? And against all other candidates, who are white, his favorability is in the mid-to-upper 40s?

I’m just wondering about that, comparing it against a comment that was made by a poster in another diary

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2011/09/27/have-you-people-all-taken-gardasil-shots-recently/#comment-129447
lineholder

!
streiff

but the odds of a third party run is pretty minuscule for a lot of reasons.

1. No candidate. Of the current field the only potential 3d party guy is Paul. He will probably do it just for grins but odds are he won’t be a factor. A sane guy, like Cain, isn’t going to burn his own house down to run 3d parth.

2. Ballot access. Without an organization it will be difficult to get on the ballot in all 50 states. Write in campaigns don’t do well.

3. Viability. There is no 3d party guy who can pull enough votes from Obama to enable a win with 34/35% of the vote. A third party candidate this cycle will only pull votes from the GOP.
rkcon

In-state tuitions are well below the real cost per student. Who makes up forthe difference? Taxpayers money. Hence, the subsidy. It’s really simple to understand. And out-of-state tuitions are often subsidized too, just to a lesser degree.

According to your, erm, reasoning nothing would be a subsidy because people pay taxes!
Aaron Gardner

The in state tax payer pays for the difference in cost for the in state rate. How can that be considered a subsidy when it is their money in the first place?

Again, I don’t think you know what you are talking about and you are reaching.

But hey, I am not a “TrueConservative” so what do I know.
rkcon

“Their”? Wow. Just yesterday there was a frontpage video featuring Maggie addressing this same issue. Just wow.

The money belongs to those who earn it. Period. If politicians are taking away that money in order to allow someone else to pay tuitions below the real cost, then it’s a subsidy – regardless if they live all in the same state or not.
http://nerds4cain.com Brookhaven

When push comes to shove, I think most people will vote for Romeny if he is the standard bearer.

I talking 2-3% of GOP voters will sit on their hands or vote 3rd party. Brush that off as insignificant if you want, but given how close the recent presidential races have been, that probably will be a significant percentage.
congressworksforus

As a direct result of the weekend polls, Hermain Cain found himself on the Today Show this morning.

Now, despite repeated please from me, this was the first time my wife had seen him speak. All she knew about the guy was that he’s black, and I support him.

Her reaction?

“He’s impressive.”

Which I why I say over and over and over to people like you and the other folks here are RedState, quit trying to marginalize candidates and pick the winners before most of the voters even know who these people are.

We rightly criticize beltway pundits for picking winners and trying to convey the nomination upon certain candidates…

But then we do exactly the same thing ourselves!
rkcon

Think about it this way: would in-state tuitions exist if not for the government intervention?

There are no subsidies when colleges are forced to charge in tuition at least the real cost per student (plus the margin of profit for those that are for profit) or if they turnout a loss whenever they charge below the real cost per student. If an university wants to calculate tuition differently and offer below cost prices to this or that group (in-state, blacks, whatever) they should cover the difference to their market price with their own money.
Scope

to make a rational argument. With your statement that “In-state tuitions are well below the real cost per student” but, completely neglect the fact that many university teachers/professors are a part of unions that have greatly increased the cost of a collage education in this country. All those big bucks to teach the students how to be good socialists, and to vote Democrat. How is that in keeping with “true conservatism”?
rkcon

Can someone make sense of the above post to me?

I neglected what fact? To me the government, at whatever level, wouldn’t own a single higher education institution.

If you’re saying that government intervention and subsidies is justified by the high costs of college education, it’s the same argument democrats used to justify obamacare.

My view is that politicians and government and taxpayers money should simply be left out of this issue. The rest is socialist crap I’m little interested in discussing.
gekster

that you do not have the comprehension to understand that which is and has been explained to you, so further trying to would be useless.
Ausonius

The Quinnipiac Poll is nothing to become excited about, because I and others have noted how inaccurate it tends to be many times.

See e.g.:

http://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2010/08/25/more-proof-that-quinnipiac-is-the-worst-polling-organization-out-there/

Salient section: even when they got something right, they “were off by nearly 27%.”

There is no proof, but I do wonder if Fox News is abandoning its more overt Republican tendencies because of Murdoch’s problems over in England with the hacking scandals at his now defunct newspaper, and here in the U.S. with the Justice Department.

Salient quote:

“As News Corp continues to battle legal woes across the pond, prosecutors in America are now extending their investigation into the crumbling media empire of Rupert Murdoch.

Allegations from US prosecutors are piling up as they are now probing News Corp to see if Murdoch and company attempted to bribe overseas officials. This latest probe comes in addition to earlier investigations attempting to expose if the company hacked voicemails and broken antitrust laws.”

My emphasis above.

See:

http://rt.com/usa/news/corp-news-bribe-murdoch-053/
septembergurl

The poll taken in Florida by ppp was taken Thursday – Sunday and showed Perry dropping & Mitt rising. Cain came in 6th after Romney, Perry, Gingrich, Don’t Know, and Paul.

The poll points out helpfully that Cain polled at 14%, in Florida in June, post straw poll he is at 7%, so has lost 1/2 his support.
septembergurl

supposed to be reply to A Texan above.
Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

Does anyone know which candidates he liked?

I’m going out on a limb… but since redstate is not “conservative” enough for him he is either Paulinian or a Moby
Aaron Gardner

Just don’t expect me to take you seriously. And that includes on twitter.
onemovoter

Love it!
Scope

it is real kooky con. Apparently this “person” believes that the more sensational he/she makes his posts, the more attention he/she will get, and the more responses. It’s like the media, get as sensational as you can to drive ratings to yourself.
onemovoter

Romney’s support is relatively steady, not increasing. The conservative side of the GOP is shifting though and will eventually work itself out.

FOX poll results.
New FOX poll: Romney frontrunner again, 23%(+1), Perry 19%(-10). Cain gets 17% after straw vote. Gingrich 11%.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/28/fox-news-poll-gop-race-top-tier-now-romney-perry-and-cain/

I really hope this doesn’t become 2008 all over again.
gekster

and more recently butt-kissing is one thing.

Being ignorant of facts and refusing to be informed is another.

And I am not the sole arbitor of the rule, I just seam to have a nack for spotting a few who need it..

I will keep my eyes open, but so far s/he just appears to be misinformed and dilusional.
californiagold

When Perry first entered the race there was concern that he would be a “regional” candidate. In fact, I had concerns that Perry would have some trouble in the midwest and northeast. But these polls show Perry will be a formidable candidate across the country.
californiagold

The latest Harris poll shows Ron Paul defeating Obama.

Not a good sign for democrats, nor should republicans overlook the damage RP might do if he runs as an independent.
Scope

is what the Romney camp, and the majority of the media wannabe king makers want. They get their weak opponent against Obama. The disgusting part of it is that the Rove’s of the party are willing to give up the election to Obama, just to keep Perry out. As Rush said today, the R establishment does not want a conservative any where near the WH. Rove was the architect of the move to the left for Republicans, and I pray that he doesn’t prevail.
wonkish1

That there is no point to rush. Its like everybody wants to throw up a front runner against Romney **As Soon As Possible**. We still have time. I’m hoping the GOP primary voters sit back a little and be patient.

If that happens it is far away from a repeat of 08. You’ll see someone earn a front runner spot instead of being anointed as a top spot.
onemovoter

That makes a difference.

Sarah Palin was included in the previous Fox poll back at the end of August. She had 8% then. This time Fox did NOT include Palin this time in their poll. So where did that 8% go?

Details are linked at http://theothermccain.com/

Can anyone figure that out?
wonkish1

Except CNN’s recent poll.

It would be more valuable and instructive to compare it in conjunction with the RCP list because outfits were dropping Palin left and right. Doing an analysis with an entire month in between has to many developments. You could also compare the poll against CNNs recent poll.

And a Fox News Poll isn’t that much different from a Gallup, WSJ, PPP, CNN, etc.
olsmithie

I disagree with many of his views, but I also believe he has character, something the handgernade with the bad haircut was lacking. Perot was just exercising his right to hate Bush, doing his part to make him lose.

Regards
Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

Dear Mort see Coldwarrior.

Google “precinct coldwarrior site:redstate.com”
californiagold

Let’s get real here, Rove and the big governent republicans hate Perry’s guts. That’s why they have gone overboard in trashing Perry on a daily basis over on FOX news.

And Roger Ailes recently gave an interview where he admits he wants FOX to move to the center. Romney is their man. And they know the only republican in the current field who can stop Romney is Perry.

The choice is clear.
kervick

That could happen. And just as likely is a Ron Paul Third Party run. Paul out-polls Obama among Independents. I am glad we agree that a third party run is appropriate.
kervick

I agree with this thinking. There should be a Christian Identity Party mainly in the South that would be the home for the “true conservative”. There would be a common sense party that is more libertarian and less Christian. And the Democrat Party that is the home for Progressives and Marxists.
snappy101

Want to winnow the field? The Top 3 candidates should stop agreeing to so many televised debates. They allow the candidates with low poll numbers and little money to stay in the race because they don’t have to spend a lot to reach a big audience.
davesinsanantonio

When they started acting like RINOs, he attacked their actions. In 2008, Romney was talking more conservatively. He lost the nomination to a squish, so he assumed if he was more squishy that he could get the nomination this time. Is Rush praising Romney this go around? Huh? Huh? Is he? Is he? What, no answer?

Didn’t think so!
gunslingr45

this just proves to me once again that polls can be man handled. University polls? Really?
gunslingr45

think your on the right track. I was for Michelle until she started the Perry trying to take over you kids routine. My understanding being he more did it so they could afford it (insurance didn’t want to pay for it) and the fact he has said he would do it different now. I figured out that Perry was not trying to take over anyone’s daughter.
I still liked Cain before Perry jumped and that’s where I am laying my few spare dollars.
I would also be happy with any Cain/Perry ticket. Actually any ticket as long as there is no Mitt, Newt and or John on it.
gunslingr45

by a long shot.
streiff

that a 3d party will pull in the same number of votes in 2012 as it does any time it is tried.

We can’t be fearful of this. If a 3d party materializes we have to deal with it but asserting a 3d party run on the level of Perot in 92 or 96 or Nader in 2000 is hokum
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Reporting fact is not ‘marginalizing.’

I report and analyze fact as I see it.

Pleading with me to ignore objective reality will fall on deaf ears.

Do your own oblivious cheerleading.
tyman

If you Google Sohail Mohammed, the Wikipedia entry comes up as well as a plethora of articles. He is now a judge in the NJ Superior Court.
tyman

The comment that Romney made about Romneycare mandates and auto insurance. “The government has a lot of mandates…my conservative friends say…”.

Rush didn’t hardly know what to say.
carolynr

First, I like Herman Cain…I like him a lot. I’ve been to his events. This is why I think that Herman cannot win. Obama is such a racist…and I mean that…I will not take it back. Every time there is an issue, the race card is played. Well, many people have just gotten to the point that every Black person is painted with the same brush. I don’t think it is right…but that is what Obama has done. People are very distrustful of government.

Romney. Well, you want Obama back…you have him with Romney. Talk about not being in touch with people…this guy doesn’t know what it is to be without a job. He’s had everything given to him. He was a big spender in MA and he will be in the WH. He lied in the debate twice also…THAT IS RIGHT…LIED. (1) HE didn’t just take a couple of sentence out of his soft cover…he took out paragraphs. He STILL BELIEVES IN CENTRALIZED HEALTH INSURANCE…THE DIFFERENCE…He wants it offered by private companies. I don’t want DC in anything any longer…THE EVIDENCE is there…everything they tried failed..including the postal department. He also agreed with Obama that very day of the debate on Race To The Top…he is for CENTRALIZED FEDERAL CONTROL OF EDUCATION. I hope someone reads this.

Perry. OK…so the guy is not a debater…BUT WHAT DOES THE EVIDENCE TELL YOU. Texas leads in JOB CREATION for this Century. How about lowering insurance…they passed tort reform. How about getting ahead of Obamacare…they passed Healthy Texas. Concerning the immigration bit…he is for securing the border…DO I HAVE DIFFERENT EARS THAN THE REST OF THE PEOPLE LISTENING? No…I don’t listen to Foxs’ rundown of what they said…I KNOW WHAT THEY SAID. BTW…Romney is for building the fence…goodie…goodie…we’ve been talking about that for 35 years….KNOW WHAT ELSE…The FEDS have not fixed the levies in New Orleans EITHER. Boots on the ground, avionics and strategic fencing in URBAN AREAS. But…what the heck…Monday morning quarterbacks are right there to tell Perry he doesn’t know what he is talking about…but they do…THEY LIVE IN NYC OR DC.
In-state tuition…I really don’t have a problem with the children of Illegals…because WE ARE NOT PAYING FOR IT…TEXAS IS.

When Obama chanted “yes we can”…we found out through his regulations…yes, we couldn’t. Perry’s life experience shows that anyone can achieve what they want…growing up dirt poor to the longest serving governor of the job producing state of Texas. I’m not from Texas…but I judge a person by the content of his character and his job experience. Herman Cain has it, Perry has it, ROMNEY DOES NOT.
carolynr

We held our nose with McCain. I am not going to the polls to vote for the GOP’s favorite. Fox is literally steering people towards Romney and KARL ROVE should shut his mouth…the latest slam was on Lou Dobbs.

You want to counter-balance the LEFT…Get someone from the Conservative side…you will wind up in the middle. Get a moderate and you wind up left of center.
florajo

Romney checked the wrong box on the forms that launched his candidacy. He intended to run a primary challenge against Obama.

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Quinnipiac in OH and PA: Romney leads, Perry leads, Santorum flops

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