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Analyzing the top three as two more polls boost Cain

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 5th, 2011 at 02:00 PM  | 

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Romney Perry Cain

Two more polls are out that absolutely confirm Cain is a serious force in the Republican Presidential race right now. Quinnipiac and CBS leave no more doubt, as the last four polls have all put Herman Cain at 17%, right up alongside Rick Perry and Mitt Romney.

I’m going to try to break down these numbers get a good snapshot of this Cain moment.

First, the facts of the new polls. Quinnipiac polled 927 Republican voters, landline and mobile, with an MoE of 3.2. CBS polled 324 Republican voters, landline and mobile, for an MoE of 6.

In the two weeks since the last CBS poll, Perry went from 23 to 12, from first place to third. Taking his place, Romney gained one point and Cain gained 12 to tie the two at 17. This poll did not include non-candidates. One interesting tidbit is CBS says 58% of GOP voters are watching the debates. Yes, they matter.

The Quinnipiac poll did include Sarah Palin, far behind the leaders at 9. Romney led at 22, Cain finished in second at 17, and Perry fell to third at 14. The poll shows a huge gender gap. Perry is even (13 men/14 women) but Romney (19/24) and Cain (23/10) are lopsided. Cain is in fourth place in the poll among GOP women, behind Romney, Perry, and Palin.

Alright, time to do some math. For easy reference, between Romney/Cain/Perry CBS had 17/17/12 (MoE 6), Quinnipiac had 22/17/14 (MoE 3.2), ABC had 20/15/15 (MoE about 6), and Fox had 23/17/19 (MoE 5).

If I take the probability from each poll and average them, I show a 57% chance that Cain leads Perry at this moment. As for Mitt Romney, I give him a 67% chance of leading Cain, and a 72% chance of leading Perry. Romney clearly leads, and Cain is just ahead of Perry for second place nationally at this time.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • powertothepeople

    when it comes to polls and I would not attempt to even put myself in the same class as you, but here is how I view polls at this time and why I think way too many of the candidates supporters put too much stock in the current poll.

    Every candidate at this time will have their declared supporters such as I am with Perry. This gives them a base number. Provided nothing comes flying out of the closet, these numbers will stay the same or close to the same. Another thing that may cause these numbers to go down is self implosion such as we saw with Bachmann. But outside of those issues, the ardent supporters will remain loyal.

    Then you have your “what makes me feel good at the moment” voter. They will tend to lean towards one person, but whoever is able to make their heart flutter at that moment is the one they support for that moment. This is where I believe you see the fluctuations.

    Many of the feel good voters do not tend to “choose” their final choice till close to primary time. They may still jump ship if someone says the right thing, but they tend to have made up their minds close to pulling the lever time. This is why I put little stock in any polls till we get much closer to primary time.

    Then the last group are the ” I want to be on the winning side” voters. They tend to have little knowledge about politics or the candidates, they simply pull the lever for the one who is winning. These voters are the ones who wait till the morning of the vote and make their decision based on who is in the “lead’ or who has won the most state primaries prior to theirs.

    I know polls do have some consequences as we saw with TPaw, but I think he used more of the “how many ardent supporters do I have” in his decision to drop out.

    I think we have our top three, but I think the polls will be more accurate once we get close to the primaries and by close I mean a few weeks. Then we will know who is moving towards the race with Obama, but right now we simply see emotions and nothing more. Barring a self implosion or a flying skeleton, we will actually know who stands the best chance at winning our primary come Late December or first of January.

    But that is just my opinion on the matter, it holds little water for those who disagree.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • Russ Martin

    I don’t want the threadjack, but I have a question about polling. Does anyone do a “battleground” state poll? Specifically, I’d like to see a poll done in the 10-12 battleground states, with the top 3 Republican candidates matched against Obama. Unless Obama completely free falls in the next 12 months (which is certainly a possibility), the 2012 election will come down to those critical battleground states. Now that the Republican field has narrowed to 3 viable, top-tier candidates, I think it would be very instructive to see polling of registered voters specifically from those states (VA, NC, NV, CO, NM, OH, FL, etc.). Does anyone compile polling info like that?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    National polling has value.

    State by state polling has value.

    But I see no point in lumping other NC and NV.

  • Russ Martin

    I meant a series of polls (done over a short time period), of the battleground states.

  • Getting_Back_to_Basics

    I would think (or maybe hope) that most Palin supporters would split between Cain and Paul, with a heavy percentage going for Cain.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    Someone has done that here:

    http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/43472

  • Change Jar Conservative

    Looking at the CBS numbers of CBS had 17/17/12 (MoE 6)

    Does an MOE of 6 mean a range of 6 around the numbers?

    In other words does mean that there is a 95% confidence level that Cain is between 11 and 23?

    Or is it trickier than that?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    We need a nominee first. :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Imagine a bell curve around each figure.

    95% of the bell curve is contained within a range + or – the MoE.

    So yes, you’re right. If Cain is at 17 with MoE 6, then we have 95% confidence he’s within a range of 11 and 23, but values around 17 are far more likely than those extremes.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Never mind.

  • Change Jar Conservative

    Apparently that’s what it means.

    So let’s look at the four polls.

    CBS: Romney is between 11 / 23
    CBS: Cain is between 11/23
    CBS: Perry is between 6/18

    QPoll: Romney is between: 18.8/25.2
    QPoll: Cain is between 13.8/20.2
    QPoll: Perry is between 10.8/15.2

    ABC: Romney 14/26
    ABC: Cain 9/21
    ABC: Perry 9/21

    Fox: Romney 18/28
    Fox: Cain 12/22
    Fox: Perry 14/24

    So for the true numbers to fit into all of that, the candidates could have any of these numbers currently:

    Romney: 18.8 / 23.0
    Cain: 13.8 / 20.2
    Perry 14.0 / 15.2

    I’m sure statistics isn’t that easy, but it would sure seem to work something like that.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m too engrossed in the math to get it instantly.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I take the probability one candidate leads another, given the results and the MoEs, and average them.

    I may not do a straight average forever though. I’m thinking later I might do something between (which is tricky) the product and the mean.

  • evilleramsfan

    is that Romney is still having a hard time to crack 25%. It is my opinion that whoever can crack that nut will likely be the nominee. The difference is that I don’t see any of the other 75% switching to Romney should the one they support throw in the towel. At this point, it seems to line up as a contest of Romney vs. anyone but Romney (with a few others out on the outskirts). Keep in mind that the ones that switched to Cain came primarily from Perry and can just as easily change horses again.

    That being said, it is pretty clear that the MSM is still focused heavily on Perry but if they decide to focus on others, it will move the numbers the other way. The probability of Romney winning will be directly proportional to the number of other nominees who are considered conservative.

    The other question that remains is what staying power do the candidates have? Financially, Perry has done well. Provided he can put together a couple of good debates (which he might do if he is no longer targeted as the frontrunner), he could be in it for the long haul. I haven’t looked into what the others have in their coffers and how they did recently, but I am sure that several are running low on funding which could cause them to drop out.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    … and he fell back.

  • cajunchosid770

    These polls are national polls and not state by state polls which is where it matters. Remember Rudy was leading but in Iowa, NH and SC he was not and by the time Florida came around he was finished.

    Romney has hit his level. I think most Republican voters know enough about him and have seen him for the past 4 years.

    Cain to paraphrase said that he needs to be in the top 3 in Iowa, NH and NV and then he can win states. But that is the same play book as Rudy.

    Perry needs to win Iowa to get the momentum to steam roll himself to victory. He can take 2nd in NH. Then he wins NV and SC I think he will take it away. Perry needs a rebound. I like Cain but I don’t see how he can go the distance when he does not have the $. His debate performance will help.

    So stop focusing on these national polls.

    Romney will be GHW Bush. He will throw conservatives a bone but stab us in the back when elected. How can you trust the guy who gave Massachusettes ObamaCare lite to repeal Obamacare if president?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I think he’s got to win in SC and FL to compete.

    Banking on seconds and thirds is a strategy for losers, like Mitt Romney last time.

  • nick2253

    he was a defective nut cracker?

    Bwahaha! (I couldn’t resist).

  • nick2253

    SC and FL are the /minimum/ he needs to secure the nomination. Unless he can pull big number in Iowa, Cain might just be done for.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It doesn’t matter.

  • blogforceone

    Now that the dance is over, Herman Cain may be the great unifier. Sarah Palin will most likely endorse Herman Cain in the near future as he represents the most Tea Party principles.

  • ihavehadit

    I also wonder why candidates do internal polling??? Basically because the polls we see are push polls or media drivin polls to get the results they want at the time. Also almost half of the voters are not registering in these polls. The silent majority in other words. But the fund raising is telling a different story. Perry is having no trouble raising lots of money, over 22,000 small contributors of less than $250.00 not counting the large contributors.. Why isn’t the multitude for Cain doing the same?????

  • ihavehadit

    Once again, if Palin endorses Cain, I am finished with her and the tea party and so are most of the people in my Church. Cain is not the conservative people say he is. He is not Israel’s friend. He didn’t have enough interest in Israel to know what the “Right of Return” meant. Only someone clueless about the struggle over there would not know. He doesn’t even support the recent Supreme Court Decision regarding our right to own a gun. He thinks it should be left to the state and local government. What is it about the second amendment doesn’t he understand????

  • http://www.last.fm/user/SoonerCaniac soonercaniac

    …and what a huge deal that endorsement would be.

    Regards,
    SC

  • gekster

    Are they telling her what to do

  • davep

    Cain isn’t bad, but as noted on Special Report today,” he’s on a book tour”
    Nearly everyone wants Mister/Ms. personality for President. It worked for the current embarrassment.
    Let’s be realistic. 9-9-9 sounds nice, but remember members of congress derive their power through the tax codes, so don’t expect that to change any time soon.
    I watched Charles Krauthammer’s speech on the Hillsdale series running now. When asked who he’d endorse, he replied the guy with the fewest skeletons in the closet and the most conservative or words to that effect. That leaves all but Cain and Johnson out. Cain has no experience and we don’t know anything about him. Johnson vetoed virtually every spending bill that crossed his desk. That is precisely what we need to reverse the course of our ship of state. I hope some of you will forget about a few weak planks and look at the package and his remarkable record as Gov of New Mexico. For the love of pete, we don’t need another politician.
    Dave

  • txpat

    With Florida moving up the primary, and causing the other states to move the dates earlier now isn’t the time for a book tour.
    If he is in it to win it he would be working on raising money, and putting in face time in the early states.
    I believe he isn’t completely serious about the run.

  • evilleramsfan

    but what I think that will play out is that between Cain, Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann is that 3 of the 4 will eventually drop out and the one remaining will end up with the majority of the followers. Based on the current RCP average, that would be 18 (Perry), 15 (Cain), 9 (Gingrich) and 4 (Bachmann). The part that isn’t reported is Palin around 9, Huntsman/Santorum around 5 combined, and none/other/don’t know with the remainder (11). Paul’s voters will not likely vote for anyone else (7).

    I think it would be huge for Romney to tally 10% of the 71% that is pulling for a conservative and that would leave him at 32%. The only ace I see him holding is if the conservative vote is split.

  • BA Cyclone

    if, for him, a win in Iowa drives a big bump in needed fundraising and of course momentum for closely following states.

    For a candidate of his “insurgent” profile I think he’d need to win or significantly perform “above expectations” (whatever that means) in Iowa, just because it’s first.

    For the other two leaders, I think the significance of the Iowa caucuses is far less.