Checking the national polling ahead of the debate

By: Neil Stevens (Diary) | October 11th, 2011 at 03:00 PM |

RESIZE: AAA

Romney Perry Cain

With a new debate coming, now’s a great time to check the latest national polling. Of course, individual states matter, but this early the national polling is critical for gauging how well the candidates will be able to stay in the race.

To summarize, we’ve seen no changes since Herman Cain surged just ahead of Rick Perry. Mitt Romney still leads.

The facts of the new polling: Gallup polled 1,067 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents from their landline and mobile national poll of adults. MoE 4. Bloomberg and the Washington Post polled 391 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents on mobile and landlines, MoE 6.

Gallup shows a close race. Romney 20, Cain 18, Perry 15, and nobody else is in double digits. By this poll I show only a 59% chance that Romney beats Cain right now, a 73% chance Romney beats Perry right now, and a 64% chance Cain beats Perry.

Bloomberg and the Post are less kind to Rick Perry. Romney still leads at 24, Cain is steady at 16, but Perry falls off to 13 there. As with Gallup, Ron Paul is fourth in single digits, and all other candidates are below the Pauldoza line.

Between these two polls, I think it’s clear that the race has again stagnated since the Cain surge. Cain had four out of five polls at 17. He’s now had two more at 18 and 16. Romney stays on top in the low 20s. Perry remains within striking distance in the mid teens.

The debates matter. A majority of Republican primary voters are watching them. Tonight may bring another big shift, but this is where the Republican party appears to be going into this debate.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

Tags: 2012, Bloomberg, Gallup, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, President, Republicans, Rick Perry, Washington Post

COMMENTS

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wwwhank

The fact that Chris Christie is endorsing Mitt Romney today in New Hampshire certainly appears that a deal has been struck behind the scenes.

Not to mention Christie used the words “its not my time” when asked about running. Yea, not your time since you planning to run as VP or some other high position.

Remember back when Obama and Clinton talked just before she dropped out of the ’08 race. What do you know she got a job. Deal struck.

Same here except they have a little problem this time. That problems name is Herman Cain. If Cain has a great debate tonight. Mitt/Christie deal can say bye bye. If Cain does not perform well then the little deal may work out for Romney.

I don’t know about you, but I don’t like how this thing smells.
politicalgal1

I’m skeptical about the national polls changing after tonight’s debate. There are a lot of folks who don’t have Bloomberg channel on their TV and many who will not watch it streaming live from their computer. I guess our only option is to watch the political hacks’ analysis on TV after the debate.
politicalgal1

The Republican establishment is so out of touch with grassroots conservatives. They and the MSM did not learn their lesson in Nov 2010. If you look at the crosstabs of the latest Gallop poll, outside of NE, Romney does not do well. The NE states will not decide the Republican candidate!
clintonformccain

suggest to me that the race has not yet crystallized. Those are, for all intents and purposes, a three-way dead heat among Ronmey, Cain, and Perry.

I don’t think they have the slightest bit of predictive power about where this primary season will ultimately lead.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

includes a significant number of votes (see Romney’s polling numbers).

I don’t see how you can say Christie’s endorsement isn’t relevant. Sure, you can say it won’t make a difference for tea party folks, but it will make a difference in how some will vote.
Remington_Steele

the affects of the coverage of an unbroadcasted (who has Bloomberg TV?) debate just as I am about what is said by the candidates. Bloomberg TV is the proverbial forest and what do they say about a tree falling in the forest that nobody hears?

Snippets by hacks are the only thing coming out of this for most people just like pg1 says. This whole thing sounds like a town-hall meeting for limited areas of the East Coast and satellite TV watchers.
kyconservative

needs to go ahead and set up our own Party which will be run by conservatives. We may lose this year (with Romney we will anyway), but in future years we will have a conservative party apparatus in place to be a national force in every Congressional and Presidential Election from now on. No longer should we let the northeastern/Wall Street/RINO establishment pick a RINO candidate and shove it down our throats, especially when these states contribute NOTHING to the cause in November.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

The important thing is to know where we’re at. We can’t know where we’re going unless we know where we stand.
Change Jar Conservative

I am not trying to denigrate Cain at all.

I’m simply asking a simple question and I’m asking it now because for the first time I believe that he could win the nomination and I think if he wins it, he’ll beat Obama.

But can he handle it.

Because the country needs someone who can handle it.
red_oakster

If Perry can somehow show that he knows how to debate, he’s back in the race. If he flubs it again, he leaves conservatives in a real bind.

Short of Ryan entering the race, the remaining conservatives are Cain, Bachmann, Gingrich and Santorum. One of them would need to win Iowa and then win South Carolina to have a chance at the nomination. Of the four, one can say confidently that Gingrich never will win Iowa. His personal baggage is unacceptable to too many of the caucus participants. Cain appears incapable of organizing, so I mark him down as unlikely to win Iowa. That leaves Bachmann and Santorum. It’s conceivable that either could win, especially if Perry has imploded. But Bachmann has no hope to win anything after Iowa, and it appears as if her campaign has run out of gas.

As unlikely as it seems, in this sort of vacuum, Santorum could win Iowa. Could he successfully contest South Carolina? It bears remembering that Romney is deeply mistrusted. In a two man race, Santorum would have limited resources , but he’d be the candidate who was right on all the issues. What a strange campaign!
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

We’d have to name them The Really Stupid Party.
kyconservative

if you think most conservatives are voting for Mitt Romney
kyconservative

but I do know he will be better than Obama. Isn’t that all that matters?
kyconservative

but I do know he will be better than Obama. Isn’t that all that matters?
kyconservative

(typo)
kyconservative

(typo)
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

no-more-text-here
streiff

as Christie hasn’t been included in the polling, I’d be willing to bet that his support is already factored into Romney’s numbers.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

I’m also smart enough to know that if you continue to say you won’t vote for certain Republican candidates over Obama, and you’re promoting a third party, your tenure here will be short.
kyconservative

…
acat

called the GOP available for just some elbow grease?

Hint. Go here. Get involved.

Mew
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

He’s definitely more like Romney than Perry. I still think his endorsement does two things. For one, it solidifies his statements that he really, really, really, REALLY isn’t running. Secondly, it lines up all those people who’ve been waiting and undecided solidly behind Romney. I’d be surprised if he didn’t move up at least a few points.
kyconservative

If the GOP nominates Romney, it can go to hell as far as I am concerned!!!
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

no-text—here
acat

(cheshire grin)
luvnthebigsites

I didn’t go to Morehouse or No-House but I did listen to Cain on the radio years before he was a twinkle in the Tea party’s eye. If his past accomplishments and personnel trial’s are any indication…

Yea, he can handle it.
acat

Cat is curious about what about Mitt has motivated you to go to the trouble of getting an account, just to throw it away.

Mew
gekster

Just leave now.

(and I ain’t smrat enough to spell “you’re”).
kyconservative

(1) SLICK, oily, greasy slick at that…
(2) Has ZERO principles
(3) Is a LIBERAL as his record in MA clearly demonstrates
(4) Is a WALL STREET FINANCIER, not exactly a popular resume in America today
(5) Is WEIRD (i.e. goes on a 12 hour trip with his dog on top of his car)
(6) Spends way too much time on his HAIR to be an honest, red-blooded American
(7) Is an ELITIST, which describes too many of our recent Presidents and is not a good attribute in today’s America

Probably some other stuff that doesn’t immediately come to mind too
kyconservative

(1) SLICK, oily, greasy slick at that…
(2) Has ZERO principles
(3) Is a LIBERAL as his record in MA clearly demonstrates
(4) Is a WALL STREET FINANCIER, not exactly a popular resume in America today
(5) Is WEIRD (i.e. goes on a 12 hour trip with his dog on top of his car)
(6) Spends way too much time on his HAIR to be an honest, red-blooded American
(7) Is an ELITIST, which describes too many of our recent Presidents and is not a good attribute in today’s America

Probably some other stuff that doesn’t immediately come to mind too
Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

Would it be more prudent to set up the “New Southern GOP Convention of the Non-RINO Covenant” epicenters near the old Southern Baptist Convention churches? That way we can avoid making folks drive so far right?
http://parsoned.blogspot.com parsoned

What if the choice comes down to Romney or Ron Paul? I think that’s as likely a scenario as any. Do you choice Mr. No Core Values or Mr. Looney Foreign Policy?
gekster

Or did you spill your milk this morning and have to rant about somethig.

Got something original, or are you just going to parrot what has been posted for weeks.
Bill S

Redstate’s mission is to promote conservative ideals AND GOP candidates. NOT third parties.

Further promotion of the idea of a third party puts your status here at risk.

Mgmt.
bzip

Cain comes in at tie with my dog.

Heck, I am almost tempted to say Mitt is better than Cain. At least with Mitt we know what we are getting. God only knows what we can expect and get with Cain.

Good grief, nominating a guy who has never held a public office and the 2 times he tried in the past in lost – and you folks want to turn the keys to our contry over to Cain. I don’t know maybe I am the nutty one and everyone else is sane.
kyconservative

I thought Red State was actually a conservative political site. It appears it’s just a megaphone for the Romney campaign…
kyconservative

I thought Red State was actually a conservative political site. It appears it’s just a megaphone for the Romney campaign…
kyconservative

but I’m Roman Catholic so I’d still need to drive down the road a bit to get to these “epicenters” Anyway, speaking of the SBC, if Romney is the nominee there will be a lot of SBCers who will not be voting like GOPers this time around
http://www.rightproadvisors.com erinmist

I’ll take someone with business experience and whose turned around failing enterprises — Romney. (says the guy who’s already sent money to Perry and supports him wholeheartedly).

The election is about the economy and jobs. Not about social issues. A vote for Ron Paul might as well be a vote for Barack Obama. 70% of Republicans would just stay home if he somehow accidentally scores the nomination. The man is barely electable outside his congressional district, and just because he’s created this highly vocal cult following of libertarians, doesn’t mean he’s likely to score any higher than their number in a general election.

We are conservatives first. What makes a conservative different than a libertarian is a willingness to work with reality. The Founders were not libertarians — they were classical liberals, a term rarely used today, because it was replaced with another term more descriptive 225 years later: CONSERVATIVE.

If RP loses and goes 3rd party, expect about the same 2% of the general vote to go to him, and zero electoral votes.

The rest of us will focus on forcing Romney’s feet to the fire, and holding him to his positions. You can flip once — maybe. But you can never, ever, flip back. That makes you toast, and Romney’s going to want two terms.
Aaron Gardner

It changes so often that I get confused.
kyconservative

You’re kidding, right??
gekster

Obviously you havn’t been reading for awhile, because the past two weeks we’ve been accused of being in the tank for Perry.

And before that for Cain,

And before that for Gingrich.

And before that…….

And how did you get to the point that I am a Romney supporter by me asking for new things on Romney, instead of you repeating junk that has already dragged out.

You have got to get out of the basement and into the sunshine now and then.
rightwingmom52

How many folks other than political junkies are going to watch? I’m just not sure how much good it’s going to do any candidate even if they have a break-out performance. It could end up being a good thing or a bad thing, depending on who we’re talking about.

For instance, based on my personal preferences, if Romney wins the debate hands down, it could be a good thing that nobody saw it. OTOH, if Perry is exceptional, he really needs there to be a lot of viewers.
Repair_Man_Jack

not Romneystate! When did that memo go out?
Bill S

I think we’ve been accused of being shills for just about everyone except maybe RuPaul.
explodinghead

Rush reminded us on his show today that this day 4 years ago 10/11/2007 the polls for GOP Presidential nomination were:

Guiliani in first, 30.2%
Fred Thompson second, 19.5%
Mc Cain third, 13.0%
Romney 4th , 11.2%
Huckabee 5th, 6.2%
Ron Paul 6th, 2.2%

As long as the primaries aren’t shifted horribly forward, maybe a Conservative can still win this thing. this gave me hope.
uncmike

I’ve looked back at some earlier polls myself (Real Clear Politics compilations) and there seems to be a trend between those that only contact registered voters vs. those that poll “likely voters.” In some of the older polls, Perry seems to be doing better with LVs while Romney and Cain seem to do better with RVs. That’s not a definitive statement as there were some instances where this trend did not hold. Perhaps you could comment on this in the future. If there is something to Perry pollings better with LVs then that might be a reflection of his dedicated conservative base. My own view is that polls at this point are not that helpful but they provide talking heads and beltway pundits something to go on about. In my view, if Perry continues on and continues to bring in solid campaign contributions, he will eventually bounce back to the top as the lesser candidates begin to fall by the way side for lack of resources and their supporters are faced with the choice between Perry and Romney.
Jim Tomasik

do I need a drink.
Jim Tomasik

OK, I need another drink.
luvnthebigsites

“shilling” or “in the tank” Confused with whats really going on at Redstate…

It’s Called “vetting”.
gekster

Follow the blue line to the left of your comment.
It just has to go in turn.
kyconservative

3 RINOs 54.4%
2 Conservatives 25.7%
1 Kook 2.2%

Either the GOP isn’t really a conservative party or we have a lot of educating to do.
acat

They may disagree with Romney on religion, but by and large they’ll vote the devil they don’t know into office if it means getting rid of the devil they do know – Obama.

Mew
Common_Cents

That is a better solution. Look up the Precinct Committeemen Project.
Repair_Man_Jack

Only Laup Nor has The Daily Paul!
Jim Tomasik

to many little lurry blue lines.
rightwingmom52

I think it’s safe to say that most do not think that’s a likely scenario, but if it were to happen, most would choose Romney over RP.
Repair_Man_Jack

I don’t like Romney (or Perry, or Bachmann or 90% of the US population on any given day). However, I’m sure Mitt has a charming personality and is nice to his kids. How could at least a few smart people NOT like a guy like that?
acat

There are more conservatives in the GOP than in the Dem party, obviously, but we do not have a majority. Never have.

Now that you see the job, you can see why we have to get to work, .

Mew
Common_Cents

He is much more competent than he may indicate otherwise.

He stood up to ODonnells baseless attacks and traps like all Conservatives/Republicans should.
kyconservative

McCain wasn’t as conservative as many of us would’ve liked but most people liked him and you really heard few complaints. Romney inspires a dislike, even hatred, that dwarfs anything I have heard about McCain, or any previous “moderate” or RINO Republican. I can tell that for one, I won’t be voting for Romney under any circumstances, and that’s 1 vote the GOP has had every election since the 1980s (when I turned 18 and could vote) but won’t have this year. I highly suspect I won’t be the only one, especially if there’s a credible third party candidate.
kyconservative

McCain wasn’t as conservative as many of us would’ve liked but most people liked him and you really heard few complaints. Romney inspires a dislike, even hatred, that dwarfs anything I have heard about McCain, or any previous “moderate” or RINO Republican. I can tell that for one, I won’t be voting for Romney under any circumstances, and that’s 1 vote the GOP has had every election since the 1980s (when I turned 18 and could vote) but won’t have this year. I highly suspect I won’t be the only one, especially if there’s a credible third party candidate.
rightwingmom52

. .
.
kyconservative

so why do northeastern liberal states who never vote GOP in the General Election get to choose our nominees? At the convention, any state that votes Democratic ought to lose 90% of their delegates in the next convention.
kyconservative

so why do northeastern liberal states who never vote GOP in the General Election get to choose our nominees? At the convention, any state that votes Democratic ought to lose 90% of their delegates in the next convention.
http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

Oh, right, you already tried that.
acat

In the general election, I’d vote for almost anybody over Obama.

In the primary, though, the goal is to support the most conservative candidate who can still win the general election.

In Massachusetts, that looks like Scott Brown.
In Illinois, Mark Kirk.
In Florida, Marco Rubio.
In Kentucky, evidently Rand Paul.

We’re in the process of figuring out whether, nationwide, conservatives can push Cain or Perry, who are both more conservative than Romney, into the top spot.

Mew
rightwingmom52

I just made this comment to someone else who said he won’t vote at all if Romney is the nominee. It’s just as appropriate here.

If Obama is re-elected, you and your family as well as the rest of us will be paying for it for years to come because it?s likely that the next POTUS will appoint at least 2 supremes (probably to replace Kennedy & Scalia). That would be a nightmare.

Are you willing to tell your children that you sat out voting as a protest against the GOP nominee or are you willing to do everything in your power to make sure Obama isn?t re-elected, including voting for Romney if he?s the nominee? I don?t want Romney, either, but anybody in the GOP field is lightyears better than Obama, not to mention that working for the GOP nominee helps to elect those on the local and state level.
kyconservative

I was reading Mark Steyn’s latest book, After America, last night, and he thinks though that as the economy and society go down in the coming years we might be able to jettison deadbeats like California, Illinois and New York and actually succeed this time….
kyconservative

I was reading Mark Steyn’s latest book, After America, last night, and he thinks though that as the economy and society go down in the coming years we might be able to jettison deadbeats like California, Illinois and New York and actually succeed this time….
red_oakster

nt
gekster

we would not mind at all.
kyconservative

but I suspect Scalia and Kennedy will hang on 1 more term. Ruth Bader may well retire between 2012-2016, however. What does it matter though if Romney nominates a David Souter or John Paul Stevens to replace whomever retires? We still will have a liberal justice. The difference between a little liberal (Romney) and big liberal (Obama) really seems immaterial. With big-liberal, at least people get fighting mad sooner and we can get real conservative change (or revolution) sooner.
kyconservative

even Rick Perry mentioned it a time or two at some point
acat

Romney being the nominee, then.

If you’re right, then the thought of voting for Romney will repel enough people that he won’t be the nominee.

If you’re wrong and Romney is the nominee, then – being quite blunt – it’s not the southern religious conservatives I worry about staying home.

Mew
gekster

Do you just make it up as you go, or do you have a playbook.
http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com ColdWarrior

precinct level!

Easy math: there’s about 400k precinct-level “voting member” slots inside the Party and about half our vacant.

There’s about a 50-50 split, on average, in the 200,000 filled slots. That’s reflected in who gets elected to the RNC delegate ranks (the precinct-level voters, the precinct committeemen, elect state committeemen, who in turn elect the state chairmen (who serve as RNC delegates) and the other two RNC delegates in each state. (I’m a precinct committeeman and a state committeeman — I actually got to cast a vote for AZ’s RNC delegates.) That current split is reflected in the election of the last two RNC chairmen: Michael Steele and Reince Priebus, two “compromise” candidates who are not really conservative.

If we want the Republican Party “leadership” to become more conservative, we conservatives have to get inside the Party. And we do that by becoming voting members of it. Every state has a different system, and it does take a rocket scientist to figure out the system. But it may take some digging. I’ve tried to compile as much info as possible at the links below and also at http://precinctproject.us.

Do the math. Fill up the 200,000 vacant slots with conservatives and that 50-50 split between conservatives and moderates goes instantly to 75-25 in favor of conservatives.

But that’s just theory. Change inside the Party, in the direction of a “more conservative” Party, will only come if more conservatives get inside it. It means actually going to your local Party committee meeting. Then asking, “How do I become a voting member of this Party?” Some may welcome you. Some won’t. It’s up to you to make it happen.

Here’s a short overview of The Neighborhood Precinct Committeeman Strategy, which is just good, old-fashioned, basic American Civics as it was once taught in the government schools.

Thank you.

ColdWarrior
lucky364

YEAR FAILURES or SETBACKS SUCCESSES
1832 Lost job
Defeated for state legislature Elected company captain of Illinois militia in Black Hawk War
1833 Failed in business Appointed postmaster of New Salem, Illinois
Appointed deputy surveyor of Sangamon County
1834 Elected to Illinois state legislature
1835 Sweetheart died
1836 Had nervous breakdown Re-elected to Illinois state legislature (running first in his district)
Received license to practice law in Illinois state courts
1837 Led Whig delegation in moving Illinois state capital from Vandalia to Springfield
Became law partner of John T. Stuart
1838 Defeated for Speaker Nominated for Illinois House Speaker by Whig caucus
Re-elected to Illinois House (running first in his district)
Served as Whig floor leader
1839 Chosen presidential elector by first Whig convention
Admitted to practice law in U.S. Circuit Court
1840 Argues first case before Illinois Supreme Court
Re-elected to Illinois state legislature
1841 Established new law practice with Stephen T. Logan
1842 Admitted to practice law in U.S. District Court
1843 Defeated for nomination for Congress
1844 Established own law practice with William H. Herndon as junior partner
1846 Elected to Congress
1848 Lost renomination (Chose not to run for Congress, abiding by rule of rotation among Whigs.)
1849 Rejected for land officer Admitted to practice law in U.S. Supreme Court
Declined appointment as secretary and then as governor of Oregon Territory
1854 Defeated for U.S. Senate Elected to Illinois state legislature (but declined seat to run for U.S. Senate)
1856 Defeated for nomination for Vice President
1858 Again defeated for U.S. Senate
1860 Elected President

I’m not sure about Cain either. Not saying he could be another Lincoln. Just trying to put things in perspective.
acat

(and, evidently, Texas with Alaska)

Mew
explodinghead

The point of the post, was to show that at this stage of the game it is still possible to dig out from the pack. It is not a fait-accompli that Romney wins the nomination.
kyconservative

although I don’t recall the context and I think it was tongue in cheek. Palin joined the Alaska Independence Party which I assume advocated some type of special status for Alaska although I’ve never read the party platform. Actually, Rick Perry’s seccession comments have been in the news quite a bit over the past couple of months. Lefties have tried to make hay out of it.
kyconservative

although I don’t recall the context and I think it was tongue in cheek. Palin joined the Alaska Independence Party which I assume advocated some type of special status for Alaska although I’ve never read the party platform. Actually, Rick Perry’s seccession comments have been in the news quite a bit over the past couple of months. Lefties have tried to make hay out of it.
notpropagandized

I wish someone who knows what’s going on would take a seriously deep look into a deal between Romney and Cain. Cain’s comment 2 weekends ago preferring to be Romney’s VP and not Perry’s VP really shook me to the core having followed him with great hopes for nearly a year that he could win the nomination. Since then I’ve been wondering if Cain’s only in it to help Romney and nearly everyone knows that there’s a huge percentage of conservatives ready to vote for Romney ONLY IF they cannot find a dependable conservative alternative.

I started to re-warm to Cain in the last couple of days, but saw this:

“On today?s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Elizabeth Blackney discuss Michael Isikoff?s story detailing the relationship Romney?s team had with Barack Obama during the crafting of Obamacare, a brewing Romney crony capitalism scandal, and explore the buddy-buddy relationship Romney has with Herman Cain.”

This should be easy to clear up. HermanCain comes across as a bona-fide conservative. Romney is not a conservative and certainly NOT a conservative’s conservative. This is some serious cognitive dissonance. If Romney and Cain are in cahoots, then one could be forced to give earnest consideration to Newt, Perry, Bachmann, even Santorum.

Someone please help on this!!! With quality information. No Paulista’s, please.
Vegas_Rick

At a public event someone in the audience mentioned secession and Perry said he understood how the person felt. He then went on to say that it was not a realistic option.
notpropagandized

It takes up space which is too much, even if it was small. Please?
acat

It’s true that Fox is less liberal, but if you look at actual statistics, the news division isn’t all that.

Rural Pennsylvania is about as conservative as rural Alabama, it’s just that the city dwellers in Philly and Pittsburg outnumber ‘em. Same is true of Illinois, once you’re into the southern or western (with the exception of East St. Louis) parts of the State, it’s conservative. Cook County (Chicago) has the conservatives outnumbered.

Don’t think it’s not changing, either. Some percentage of the new Texans are recycled Californians who are probably bringing their leftist beliefs along.

Mew
acat

(but Indiana won’t take it)

Mew
Vegas_Rick

With all that’s going on in the world, this is what upsets you?
Change Jar Conservative

I’m not saying I lean one way or another.

I just think we need to know the answer.
luvnthebigsites

I sprayed a little WD-40 om my mouse scroll wheel.
Change Jar Conservative

He is the biggest neo-con of the bunch.

He has no executive experience.

He seems like Huckabee light (and that’s not being complementary).
Change Jar Conservative

Something about the nuclear football and crazy combined just makes me a little nervous.

If the general was Obama vs Ron Paul, I’d have a hard time voting for Ron Paul.
kyconservative

Take Georgia. The Atlanta metro area outnumbers the rest of GA yet GA reliably votes 60-40 GOP in a typical Presidential election. One difference is that the suburbs of most Southern cities are vastly more conservative than the suburbs elsewhere but another component of GOP success is the utter dominance the GOP enjoys in almost all (majority white) rural areas. In PA, the rural areas may lean conservative but if they were as conservative as rural areas in GA, the state would go Republican.
kyconservative

Take Georgia. The Atlanta metro area outnumbers the rest of GA yet GA reliably votes 60-40 GOP in a typical Presidential election. One difference is that the suburbs of most Southern cities are vastly more conservative than the suburbs elsewhere but another component of GOP success is the utter dominance the GOP enjoys in almost all (majority white) rural areas. In PA, the rural areas may lean conservative but if they were as conservative as rural areas in GA, the state would go Republican.
kyconservative

Or maybe let them join California, NY and Massachusetts in Democratistan
kyconservative

Or maybe let them join California, NY and Massachusetts in Democratistan
acat

(nothing further)
clintonformccain

…. the conservative wing of the party allows itself to be marginalized by getting tangled up in sideshow morality issues (like tuition at Texas community colleges and vaccinations against sexually transimitted disease) instead of focusing on the priority issues (like the economy).
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

You’re confusing us for the Democrats. They’re the ones who support Occupy Wall Street dingbats like Paul
papabear

As I have stated before, I’d even pull the lever for Paul.

I’d have to go live in a bleach vat for the next year, but I will vote ABO (Anybody But Obama).

Think about what you are suggesting. I am not a moderator or even a frequent RS poster. However, a 3rd (conservative) party in US = fragmentation of the conservative message and a permanent (D) reign.

If you feel so strongly about ABRomney, stir up more support for the candidate of your choice.

Put your money where your mouth is.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

So it’s really hard to tell.

And to be honest I have no idea how they’d skew in the primary. They tend to skew Republican in the general, but it’s very hard to tell how that breaks down among Republicans.
kyconservative

http://www.info wars.com/ron-paul-who-else-is-on-obamas-secret-kill-list/
aesthete

Nuke the Republican primary from orbit.

It’s the only way to be sure.
bzip

In the end I don?t think Cain stands a chance and I say that for two reasons; Assuming most of the conservative population hasn?t gone totally nuts:

1)Cain will eventually be seen as what he is (no elected experience, has flip-flopped, he has lost his senate race [can we say a politician now], isn?t as conservative as some think, etc The no ?experience is going to hit hard and big time when and if the media and candidates go after Cain. Right now Cain isn?t getting hit hard but if the media does their job and the candidates don?t give him a free ride it will change drastically.

2)Cain will never be able to get the huge amounts of money required like Romney and Perry can. That will end it real quick for Cain.

I may sound frustrated at some of our fellow conservatives for creating such a potential disaster because the more people push Cain the greater the chances of a Romney victory in the end.
acat

but allowing the various ‘urbs to detatch from their States and form city-states (i.e. the City-State of Los Angeles) would make things interesting.

They’d never go for it, though .. each of the major metro areas costs the State money; that is, each city is subsidized by the surrounding farmland.

At one point, this was a mutually beneficial deal – guaranteed market for foodstuffs, source of culture and manufactured goods. The internet addresses, to an extent, the culture, and everything’s made in China now anyway, so …

Mew
acat

I’ve shrunk my pic a bit further.

Mew
kyconservative

Many voters are looking for a fresh face; someone who is not an old hand in the political establishment. Everyone said the same about Rand Paul last year (no experience, is libertarian rather than conservative, can’t raise money like the sitting AG, etc.), yet, he won going away by election day despite a gazillion dollars spent against him and all the state’s newspapers being unceasingly hostile to him. Sometimes people want something different, like Obama in 2008 and Rand Paul in 2010. I think 2012 will be such a year as well.

(fyi, I’m not indorsing Cain, just saying don’t write him off because he’s certainly an acceptable candidate)
westcoastpatriette

it’s a little bit too small, now. Cats are my favorite animal and the pic makes me smile.

However. I realize not everybody likes cats…
aesthete

encompasses both libertarianism and American conservatism. Arguing over which one best embodies the principles of classical liberalism or the Founders is a waste of time, IMO — depending on the Founder and the year, you could make a pretty good case for either.

As far as Romney goes, I think the argument that the guy’s gonna stay true and pure to conservatives is a bit tenuous. The man hasn’t been saying and doing anything to get the Presidency for more than 4 years just so he can start dutifully rolling stuff back — and that’s pretty much what conservatives want from the next President. No, expect Romney to do a bunch of “legacy building” stuff, especially in the healthcare and the energy markets, combined with some token gestures and policies to placate the base. If we’re particularly “lucky”, he’ll also try to do some “legacy-building” abroad, and maybe start a trade war to “get serious about China”. (China and free trade are subjects I expect the next Presidents to start getting really stupid on.) A man who hungers for the Presidency, but has no apparent reason to run, is a dangerous one indeed.
luvnthebigsites

Doesn’t bother me a bit, Blow it up 4X! Or even better find a good picture of a Full size male Lion (full length shot from the side) and make it fill out the whole base of your post field. Heh. Mew indeed.
acat

The population of Georgia is roughly 9,500,000
The population of Atlanta is roughly 400,000

Mew
westcoastpatriette

..
izoneguy

Herman Cain: ‘I’m going after Romney’ at debate
rightwingmom52

Even a Souter or Stevens or Kennedy is better than a Ginsburg, Kagan or Sotomayor. Yes, when voters get angry, we can boot some officials out, but again, we can’t vote out the supremes. We’re stuck with them for years to come. I’m not willing to take that chance.

Don’t get me wrong. I do not want Romney to be the nominee, but I love my country more than I dislike Romney. I might not like 4 years of Romney, but 4 more of Obama would be a disaster.
wonkish1

Everybody wants inflate their likelihood of voting you essentially end up mimicking the RV polls, and if you force try to force a reduction from RV to LV you likely just skewed your poll a little.

That is why you aren’t seeing any real discernible differences between LV, RV, and even All. Probably about the time of Iowa you’ll start seeing LV, RV, and All polling start to be more consistent to their respective category.

Now you aren’t really going to produce much of a difference between the 3.
carolina

Red state GOP’s for the ‘rest’ in varying degrees.

We need another RINO to split the blue GOP vote for Romney, or for one of the other candidates to REALLY catch fire. I’m not optimistic at this point.
lineholder

There are past statistical patterns that people look at, sort of like at a mathematical formula, and under normal conditions, you just plug values (such as money, advertising, time spent in a specific state, etc.) into the formula and viola…you’ve got an idea about how the outcomes will turn out.

But this year is different. These aren’t normal conditions, which could end up blowing those old statistical patterns slap out of the water.
Thomas_Hauber

Better the dem we know than the RINO we don’t.

Is that not what we have been saying for years about Snow, Collins and that turncoat from PA?
Thomas_Hauber

It could come down to republicans talking to Jeb to unite the factions.

Romney is uninspiring because of his faux conservative stances, Perry because of his ineptitude and Cain because of his lack of experience. Surely we as a party can come up with someone better than the choices we have in front of us??
Scope

The Republican establishment wants Romney badly, and want to rap the whole primary season up early to give him the nom. He said that Romney is propping up Cain, especially with Romney’s statement at a Townhall telling the people that they can vote for him or Cain, and they would be fine. Rush said that Romney has hinted that Cain may be his VP pick, probably by that comment.

Romney needs to get Perry out yesterday, because Perry has the money and the organization to fight him. Cain doesn’t have the money or organization to beat Romney. Even if Cain won an early state, which neither are really actively campaigning in, then Romney takes Cain out in Nevada and Fla for sure. Cain doesn’t have the money to compete there. No matter how you slice and dice Rush’s words, he believes that Cain is the least of Romney’s problem’s. Perry is the worst of Romney’s problems. The MSM is pushing for Cain hard now. They can’t afford to have a major long term battle between Perry and Romney.

Rush was nice enough to say that Cain’s money problem may be getting a little better, but it will never beat Romney’s and/or Perry’s.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

Just like he cheered when Communists slaughtered anti-Communists in south Vietnam.

He’s sick in the head.
arizonajohnson

I understand that ultra-conservative US Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) is one of his top choices for the SCOTUS. Lee clerked for Alito during his tenure on the 3rd Circuit, specialized in appellate practice before the SCOTUS, and served as Assistant US Attorney in SLC. His father was US Solicitor General under Reagan. Ironically, Lee is also good friends with Harry Reid’s family, so I don’t believe Dingy Harry would block the nomination.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

I like how you outed yourself as a conspiracy theorist.
http://parsoned.blogspot.com parsoned

But he’s got to show some intelligence in these debates AND get some specific plans instead of broad generalities on issues.
bzip

Be patience, Perry came into the race late. I do know Perry is going to make a policy speech on Friday and many more following that.
bzip

It maybe true 2012 is different but we are talking about the biggest office in the land. It’s one thing to elect a unknown senator without experience but we are talking about the president’s office.

I can’t believe we would go down this road, again (obama was elected without much experience I guess its the republicans turn to do it now – oh well).
republitarian

When compassionate conservative George W. Bush nominated a crony with no record to the supreme court, Harriet Miers, there was widespread disappointment and subsequent pressure which forces her to withdraw.

We already know that Obama doesn’t care what we think. With Romney, at least we have a decent of making him see the light if he strays off course. If he follows which way the wind is blowing then we just have to make sure to supply the wind.
Common_Cents

It’s almost as bad as voting for Obama.

Take up differences and fight in the primary. Then it is incumbent for everyone to vote in the general for the least worst, even if you have to hold your nose.
Common_Cents

to split the rino vote. hehe
luvnthebigsites

Cain is a Tea Party conservative that loves his country.

Barry is a Socialist progressive that hates his country.

Also Cain is not only running against Obama and the old Media but against the Establishment in his own party. I wish Cain had it as easy as Obama did in 08…
acat

If not, would you consider relocating to one or the other, getting involved in the state GOP, and trying to do better?

Mew
gekster

Reverse psychology.
That’s his game.
Rip on Mitt,
(that could be a country song, hey Hank)
to the point of getting someone to defend him.

It ain’t going to work, but he is fun to play with.

He posted some of the same ole crap about Romney, I told him it wasn’t nothing new, find something else, and got accussed of being a Romney supporter.
I won’t say who I will support, but I know who I won’t support,
and that one man list is Romney.

And yes, if he is the Republican nominee,
I will borrow a set of plugs from acat.
red_oakster

What does this mean?
acat

The date to get on the early ballots – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida – is either passed or very close.

Not to mention, it’d involve getting a national campaign staff up and running, getting positions fleshed out, a couple endorsements, some commercials on the air, etc. starting from .. nada .. in barely a month.

That isn’t impossible, mind, and there’s a case that a late entrant could just bypass Iowa and New Hampshire (and maybe South Carolina) entirely, jumping straight into Florida. That strategy favors Jeb Bush, Florida is home turf, but .. it’s also a very large gamble. If he stumbles even once under the compressed schedule, he’s just blown a whole lot of money.

Mew
acat

And lost? Badly?

Mew
streiff

I need a detailed explanation or you’re gone.
streiff

If you aren’t in the race now you aren’t getting in. The filing deadline to get on the ballot in the early states is in two weeks.
avagreen

After seeing the majority of questions being directed to both Romney and Cain, with an occasional bone being split between the others, it’s pretty obvious who’s been picked as the winners.
Even Santorum pointed out that he’s not been allowed to speak. Newt broke in to make brilliant analogies and didn’t wait for approval.
But, whenever Cain or Romney’s name was mentioned, they were allowed to rebutt over and over. When Perry tried to, he was shut down by Romney and then the moderator didn’t come back to allow him to, but immediately went to another question.

The establishment has picked the GOP nominees: President nominee: Romney
VP nominee: Cain

Sickening.
avagreen

it was a continuous monologue by two candidates, essentially, provided by the liberal network and mods it was on.
Cain has been pushed by establishment for the past month or so. Romney, always.
wonkish1

While I agree that Perry kind of got overlooked. In general you were able to see more from detail from the candidates, they were able to make real arguments that are capable of persuading independents that conservatism is the better option, and it was a lot more interesting.

I hope the rest of the networks add more time to each question after seeing how badly Bloomberg made those previous looks tonight.
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

He doesn’t even know what kind of Congress he’ll have.

Anyone who’s giving you specifics now is selling empty promises.
uncmike

I noticed most polling now is RV, not LV and I accept that for the reasons you and others give. My sense is that the real issue is what model will eventually apply as to the mix of those that really turn out to vote. The number of folks polled and the ranges of uncertainty really depend on actual turnout–how many Republicans, Democrats, Independents. As I said earlier, at this point, polls are some indication but mostly are done to create news. However, I do appreciate you and others who post them and provide analysis because that is key to understanding them. Thanks.
uncmike

Also, I think voters put way too much stock in so-called “plans” proposed by candidates. On the economic front, the “plan” I want is not some 54-point thing; it’s get the government the hell out of the way and let business do it’s thing. Government cannot do much to get the economy moving again other than cutting and reforming taxes, rolling back the huge number of regulations that hinder economic progress, and providing a benign environment in which entrepreneurs can flourish. A good example would be to get the specter of Obamacare off the backs of business so it can have some certainty about the future. Ditto the myriad environmental regulations Obama has imposed on the economy. Right now, the future is so uncertain, most businesses are reluctant to hire, even if they could do so. If Perry can back these sorts of things, then that’s the only plan he needs, and it’s not a long laundry list of government actions that amount to nothing more than tinkering.
JSobieski

An Obama-like cliche campaign (substituting conservative slogans) isn’t going to grab independents or build a mandate for governance.

Candidates don’t need to have a CBO scored plan, but some amount of specifics does help.

Otherwise we are left with generic cut taxes, reduce spending, and free up the private sector so that it can work. Reduce onerous regulations,etc.

In a cliche debate, the left tends to win because we will end up poisoning the air.

I for one would love to hear someone (besides Newt who has some good ideas) describe how specifically they would get regulations under control.
Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

No text
http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

.
aesthete

Perhaps for the next debate, conservatives can print up a billboard saying, “Yes, we know that you are a Reagan Republican who will Keep America Strong, Cut Waste, Fraud And Abuse, and Support Strong Families. Please do not make your answer to any question a variation of same — thank you.” It can be put in front of every candidate’s podium…
red_oakster

But I find CJC’s comment at best odd and frankly creepy.
notpropagandized

I got cats, they dig me. But I’m not the YouTubeVillanovaMBA chick.
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