It seems that many view the on-going competition among Republican candidates for the right to face Obama in November 2012–which happens to be some 13 months away–as a “race,” with either Romney or Cain as the likely winner. In fact, the overall process to choose the Republican nominee is not a race at all, it is a triathlon, and there are other events still to play out.

Thus far, the candidates have competed in the first event–debates (as they are generously called by those who stage them)–with the winners determined by sundry polls of, not “likely voters,” but “registered voters.” Because there is little evidence on which to base the likely number of actual voters who will show up on election day, voter intensity, turnout models in terms of percentages of D-R-I, etc., predictions predicated on these polls have a large degree of uncertainty in terms of telling us who the actual winner will be. Put another way, the usual plus/minus margins associated with these polls mean nothing in the longer term. In any case, this event is still on-going, but others events are also getting underway.

The second event in the primary triathlon consists of grass-roots politicking–an old fashioned celebration that features BBQ, friend chicken, baby-kissing, and the like. This is what is known in the trade as retail politics. Such events give candidates the opportunity to meet potential voters one-on-one and increase their likability quotients in the process. The size and frequency of these gatherings are important factors in terms of their overall payoff. The larger the crowds and the more often these events are held, the greater the candidate’s opportunity for positive exposure. This is where the candidate makes use of his stump speech, sounding the themes he wants to deliver to the crowd in measured sound bites that can be picked up, remembered, and repeated to others. Staging these events around the country, especially in early key states, takes serious planning, organization, and money–hey, even chicken is not cheap these days. Consequently, this event favors candidates with these resources. They are often undervalued in the overall election process by a media hungry for things like debate “gaffes” or poll results which they can quickly turn into their next newspaper byline, or a narrative for their next guest appearance on Morning Joe, or Meet the Press.

The third event in the triathlon takes place largely after the actual nomination process gets underway in the first state. This is what you might call direct exposure and support of the candidate via TV and radio commercials, newspaper and other forms of print advertising and, importantly, by the utilization of phone banks, on-the-ground volunteers who can knock on doors and help get out the vote, and by other electronic means such as the web, Facebook, Tweets, and so on. After the election events in the first couple of small states–Iowa and New Hampshire–the pace accelerates as the candidates move on to larger, more diverse, and harder to cover states. As with the second event, this leg of the triathlon favors those with resources such as money and organization (both campaign and grass-roots). You can’t use up all your gunpowder in the first volley.

This last event also prominently features a ramping up of “attack adds” where the goal is to define opponents, raising their negatives, and casting doubt on their announced plans, economic or otherwise. To be effective in the large, delegate-rich states, this means candidates will need significant financial resources for mass buys of paid media exposure.

For these and other reasons, those who believe that 13 months out the race for the Republican nomination is nearly over are not credible. Take Romney, who seems to be the current leader in these polls of registered voters. He has largely prevailed in the first event because of his name exposure, looks (yes, women like him), smooth ability to deflect questions during events, and the fact that he has the Republican establishment with him.

Cain has done well also in his first event–against all odds some would argue. He’s fresh in the sense Biden thought Obama was fresh and clean. But, as his poll numbers rise, so too will the level of scrutiny accorded him. His 9-9-9 plan has attracted attention, both positive and negative. Expect the negative attention to grow as he is perceived by the Republican establishment as a threat to Romeny. Just today, NRO ran an editorial on its website called “Bold, Brash, and Wrong,” in which the editors pronounce Cain’s 9-9-9 plan as “unworth of support.” They continued by noting that, while Cain’s plan is a bold vision for tax reform, its merits “don’t go far beyond its superficial simplicity.” They also argue that it will hurt a lot of people, especiallly retirees and those at lower income levels–thisT is a theme I’m sure the Obama people will exploit heavily should Cain become the nominee. Finally, the NRO editors conclude that “Cain?s flawed effort is all the more problematic, given further revelations this weekend that he understands very little about foreign policy.” Expect these attacks to increase in the day ahead as attention moves from Perry to Cain.

Romney too has his problems since he is the favorite of those not part of the Anybody-But-Romney (ABR) crowd. More simply, his support among registered voters (not likely Republican voters) seems stalled at about 25%. What will happen to Romney’s support when the polls begin to focus on likely Republican voters, and what will be their intensiy in the general election should Romney be the nominee? What will happen when his remaining opponents take to the air waves to define him, explain his role in Obamacare, his flip-flopping on abortion, and on and on?

In sum, it ain’t over til it’s over. And it ain’t over by a damn site yet.