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Cain surging… even before the new story fully broke

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  November 2nd, 2011 at 03:00 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Cain Romney

Obviously the big story this week in the Republican Presidential race is the story Politico broke discussing sexual harassment allegations, and whether Herman Cain would be helped or hurt by that story.

As it turns out, if the new Quinnipiac poll is to be believed, he was already on the way up before the story broke.

The facts: 869 Republican registered voters, mobile and land line coverage. MoE 3.3. Importantly, the poll was out October 25-31, a long time but typical for university polling, and ending just as the Sunday night story drop was circulating.

These numbers are substantial. Cain did fall off after the 9-9-9 debate, but he’s perfectly recovered it seems. Cain leads at 30, with Mitt Romney staying right in his usual range at 23. Newt Gingrich is the only other candidate in double figures, squeaking by at 10.

Some interesting splits: Cain leads among “born-again evangelicals” 35-16. Romney leads among those with a college degree 30-29. Cain leads those without a degree 31-19. Romney peaks at 29%, just behind Cain’s 30%, among households at 50,000-100,000 income. Cain does best over 100,000 and below 30,000.

Top reasons for somebody to vote for Cain? Business experience at 13%, Tax plan at 10%. Top reasons to oppose Cain? Lack of political experience at 15%, Tax plan at 10%. I conclude the 9-9-9 plan still doesn’t help him any, but it’s just not crippling him at all. Only 2% oppose Cain because of a belief that he can’t beat Barack Obama, and only 1% support him because he’s not Mitt Romney.

Top reasons to support Romney? Business experience at 12%, Political experience at 8%. Reasons to oppose Romney? Romneycare 15%, Flip flops at 9%.

66% of Republicans have watched at least one debate this year, per Quinnipiac. That’s higher than previous readings I’ve seen on that question. They matter greatly for people who are not engaged in activism and aren’t immersed in politics every day.

Further, the top 3 candidates in the “best” debate polling are the top 3 in the overall polling. The top two candidates in the “worst” debate polling are the two remaining candidates who have had major crashes in their polling: Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.

It’s only one poll, but it’s a wealth of data that all seem to confirm and explain the trends we’re seeing. Plus, if this scandal really does boost Herman Cain as much as some say it will, then we may see Cain be the first candidate at 40%.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter.

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COMMENTS

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  • pashley1411

    I don’t think its been commented on enough how much the Cain candidacy is a rejection of the political class and all their works. Hits from the MSM simply affirm Cain’s outsider image, though many of Cain’s reponses make me cringe.

    My suggestion to the Romney campaign is that they call up Sarah and find out how to get people to give a dam about his campaign.

  • yesplease

    Even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from a high-enough point.

  • tngal

    dead-cat-bounce/ ooohhh

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • politicalgal1

    unravel. His campaign is facing more serious problems than the sexual harrassment allegations.

    First there is the potentially illegal campaign donations from a charity founded by the candidate’s chief of staff, Mark Block (of smoker fame) Block is apparently not trained in campaign finance laws and has no business being Treasurer of the campaign.

    Another one is using campaign donor fees to pay full price for his books which benefits Herman financially. If he was giving the books to donors, he could have purchased discounted author-distribution copies directly from his publisher rather than his own corporation.

    I predict the attraction that some have with Cain’s being an “unconventional” candidate will start to wear out soon.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    I believe you will be surprised by Gingrich. Mark it on your calendar.
    Especially as he gets more exposure like the recent Education Forum.

  • acat

    there’s more use in a dead cat than some who post here.

    Remains to be seen if there’s fire to go with the smoke coming from the Cain Train, but as Neil points out, Cain was moving up before this broke.

    Cain’s not my first choice – I want someone not-Romney but with government-executive experience. That said, I could fully support Herman Cain.

    Mew

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ..

  • jakeofalltrades

    I was a Cainaanite until I figured out he’s making up his positions as he goes along, along with the inevitable flip-flopping. He has a higher flip-flop rate per unit time than Romneycare.

    Suffice it to say I am now a Perry donor.

  • jakeofalltrades

    My slogan: “Anyone but Obamneycare”.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    and I will take the global warming transgression above most. It’s been overplayed to the point where people are desensitized.

    Folks want someone who can clearly articulate their ideas, get people back to work, help their kids get a good education, restore America’s core values, intellectual dismantle this President’s rampant destruction and LEAD.

    There are very few who fit that bill IMHO.

  • jakeofalltrades

    nt

  • tngal

    the term dead cat bounce. seeing as how you’re a ….well,..you know.

  • libdestroyer

    soooo many prognosticators on this site. Doesn’t it hurt every time a new poll comes out and you find out you’re dead wrong?

  • acat

    The duck wasn’t using it…

    Mew

  • gator_hoo

    Apparently does not include “Til Death do us part.”

    And I am not sure supporting AGW and an individual mandate is the best way to dismantle this president’s rampant destruction.

  • jakeofalltrades

    pro – forward
    gnos – knowledge

    Did I make a prediction of something? It’s so hard to tell what Cain supporters mean when they speak. Perhaps Cain could lend one of his experts to interpret for you?

  • libdestroyer

    For all you “cain is done” prognosticators, news like this has got to hurt…

  • gator_hoo

    Outside of 9-9-9, which for being a “simple plan” is becoming awfully convoluted with empowerment zones and 9-0-9, nobody really knows where Cain stands on any of the important issues, and it is becoming clearer by the day that Cain himself doesn’t know where he stands on the issues.

  • jakeofalltrades

    In the meantime, go read his website.

  • politicalgal1

    and that’s why Gingrich is my #2 behind Governor Perry.

    State’s rights!!!

  • Reader11722

    Herman Cain said this is all about race.. and he is right. He only sexually harasses white women. He respects black women and married one. White men should be embarrassed how they sell out their mothers and daughters.

  • bzip

    My List and in the order of preference :

    Perry (Perry would have to bow out before I change though)
    Newt
    Romney
    Rick Santurium
    Bachmann

    The below are not qualified, period!
    Cain = stay home
    Paul = stay home

  • Marcus_Traianus

    and probably the 50% of Americans that get divorced every year.

    Yes, and I am sure this is the most important quality we are looking for in a candidate next year. All the unemployed people- show of hands? People working two jobs? People who can’t afford to send their kids to college?

    And please point me to the candidate who can toe-to-toe debate this President in a steel cage match on the issues and win? Please don’t embarrass yourself and say Perry.

    Whether you like Newt or not as a candidate. Nobody is as deep on the issues and able to carry a one-on-one debate better. That is what will be needed to withstand the coming fallacious, relentless attacks on our candidates character. Someone who can forcefully change the subject to issues most folks want to hear- not their personal life and alleged transgressions.

  • supergirl2911

    I just watched Dana Perino on the Five freak out when the other guy (sorry, not sure what his name is) brought up that a donor to the Romney campaign replaced Cain as CEO of the NRA.
    Maybe this has already been brought up, but I read a couple days ago that they would be looking for a link. He (guy in the middle of the table) brought it up.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    But he has created a pretty big hill to climb.

    Mr Perry and his team need to take every advantage to speak and debate in public to convince people of his abilities. I just don’t know if that ship has sailed.

    If Perry’s decline has proved anything, it is that folks want someone who can stand up to Mr. Obama’s bullying, speak their mind and present a good, articulate plan for the future. I believe his tax plan did that. But the follow up and capitalization on that win was very poor IMHO.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    We don’t care for that kind of talk around here.

  • Common_Cents

    Once people start looking at what “baggage” matters and actually acknowledge baggage of other candidates, Gingrich looks pretty good.

  • jakeofalltrades

    That is the most disgusting thing I’ve read online in a long time.

  • jakeofalltrades

    Perry
    Newt
    Bachmann
    Santorum
    Huntsman
    Randomly-Selected SSN
    Paul
    Cain
    Romney
    Satan
    Clinton (but I repeat myself)
    Obama

    It used to be Cain first, then Perry. Then he flip-flopped on abortion, so it became Perry first, then Cain.

    Now he’s beclowned himself so much that I rank him below Luap Nor, since at least Luap Nor has beliefs rather than improvisations.

  • mariagomez

    Hi Supergirl. Two guys named Wilson and Anderson also had knowledge of the scandals plus have working relationships with the Perry campaign. Perry benefits much more from this scandal than Romney does, because Cain’s supporters are much more likely to go to Perry.

  • beach91

    n/t

  • phelbin

    I don’t think Sarah would have any advice that would push Romney over the 23% mark he’s been stuck at for months. It’s not about what he says or does, it’s who he is. He’s not a principled conservative, despite his best efforts to portray himself as such. And so nothing Sarah, or anyone else for that matter, could do would change his past. He’s a Wall Street insider, a supporter of nationalized healthcare, and he has flip-flopped on most every major issue that matters to conservatives.

    And I think your assessment of Cain as the antipolitician is exactly why he’s in the lead right now. McCain, Dole, Bush I, etc. We don’t need another GOP establishment-endorsed “it’s his turn” kind of candidate who will only preserve the status quo. Only a real conservative who’s willing to take the fight to the left will be able to get this country back on the right track.

  • phelbin

    The prediction was that Cain’s campaign would soon unravel. And his point is valid. Cain has been dismissed as the “flavor of the week” since he first began to get noticed in August. And he’s done nothing but rise in poll after poll since then, despite the experts saying he isn’t a serious candidate. I even saw someone just yesterday theorize that his real aim is to be VP.

    I’m not saying his poll numbers will hold up, but it’s time to take him seriously. These hit pieces suggest that the left is beginning to.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ,,,

  • phelbin

    Stay at home? Really? So you’d rather vote for Obama by omission than support a republican you don’t like?

    I really really dislike Mittens Romneycare. But I’m too pragmatic not to vote for him if, God forbid, he gets the nomination. I won’t like it, I won’t campaign for him, I won’t donate, but I definitely won’t protest and help Obama spend 4 more years killing our country.

  • phelbin

    true that most Cain supporters would switch to a conservative, most likely Gingrich or Perry, over Romney. I sure as heck would.

    But I’d say that damaging Cain indirectly helps Romney more than anyone. Romney can’t seem to get above the mid 20′s in any poll. So, he needs the rest of the field to be split evenly in order to pull off the nomination with his numbers.

  • center77

    and he also said Romney is the one Obama wants to run against the most.

    PERRY is killing it on Hannity.

  • jakeofalltrades

    Until the flip-flopping began. You do realize he flip-flops more in a month than Romney does in a decade?

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    Satan
    Clinton (but I repeat myself)

    Poetry!

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    Two simple equations:
    Primary = ideals
    General = pragmatism

  • jackdaniels11

    1. Romney
    2. Gingrich
    3. Hunstman
    4. Bachmann
    5. Paul
    6. Perry
    7. Gary Johnson
    8. The former Louisiana governor whose name I can’t remember
    9. Cain
    10. Giving the land back to the Native Americans and sailing back to England in three-mast ships
    11. Pouring chili sauce into my eyes until they stopped stinging.
    12. Obama

  • jackdaniels11

    Newt won’t try to push the country to observe the Kyoto Protocols.

    He is the best debater on the circuit so far.

    His book, Winning the Future, is outstanding.

    His baggage should be old news by now.

    That said, I still prefer Mitt Romney.

  • jakeofalltrades

    The “all women are liars” sarcasm – that was just too funny. And Obama at the bottom.

  • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

    I’m laughing so dang hard!

  • i8bugs

    I went to his Montgomery rally. You could not get into the building. They had to put speakers outside. This Cain train has left the station. It’s not slowing down for a couple of gold diggers.
    Everyone knows how the Obama team eliminated the GOP competition one by one till all we had left was McCain. Well, their doing it again, or maybe we’re doing it to ourselves.

  • center77

    I feel sorry for the Republican party, because every woman I know has thrown him under the bus, and they don’t care about liberal or conservative, but they know one thing. The man is guilty. Conservatives are acting like it does not matter.