« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

No, Ron Paul is not a threat to win the Iowa Caucuses

It doesn’t matter what you think the new Public Policy Polling result says. It doesn’t matter how many gleeful Democrats are writing up news stories claiming it’s true. It’s not.

Ron Paul, King of Earmarks, Full Metal Truther, and Archbishop of the anti-American Gnostic Constitutionalists, is not going to win the Iowa caucuses or even get close for one simple reason.

He wins people who don’t vote, but the Iowa caucuses only admit Republicans.

Every time, and I mean every time, I bring up the fact that the Iowa Caucuses are closed, the reply is that “You can register up to the day of the caucuses to participate.” That’s true. But if Paul is not able to motivate his supporters to register, and if his people aren’t actually committed to caucus for Paul, then his support is soft, and isn’t going to show up.

Look at the PPP poll. The partisan breakdown is huge. Among Republicans, it’s Newt Gingrich 25, Ron Paul 17. Among Independents it’s Ron Paul 35, and Newt Gingrich in fourth at 12. Similar story among Democrats: Ron Paul 28, Newt Gingrich in third at 18.

Paul does worse among TEA partiers than he does among Republicans. Gingrich 24, Paul in third at 16.

Consider further the PPP breakdown by 2008 caucus vote. Gingrich wins Mike Huckabee caucusers with 26, with Paul in third at 16. Mitt Romney wins Romney caucusers at 44, with Gingrich at 23. Gingrich wins Thompson, McCain, and Giuliani caucusers as well. Ron Paul wins Ron Paul caucusers at 81%.

The 2008 caucuses saw record turnout both for Republicans and Democrats. Somehow Ron Paul needs that turnout to get even bigger, if he wants people who are independents now to show up and caucus for him. That’s not likely.

InsiderAdvantage, the pollster that warned of Karen Handel knocking off John Oxendine in GA and of Nikki Haley taking over in SC, tells much the same story. Paul wins Independents 28-25 over Gingrich. Gingrich wins Republicans at 29, with Rick Perry squeaking into second at 14, then Ron Paul and Mitt Romney at 13.

Fun side note: InsiderAdvantage suggests some sort of Operation Chaos-style attempt going on in Iowa, as Michele Bachmann leads among Democrats.

But these numbers are not as great for Ron Paul as some would have us believe. Ron Paul is only winning among Paul caucusers in the state, and he came in fifth place in 2008 at 10%, well behind Mike Huckabee’s 34%. The only way Paul wins is to register new Republicans by the truckload and then drive them to the caucuses. As the polls show, so far that’s not happening. His supporters are still independents, not Republicans, and thus don’t matter in the final tally.

COMMENTS

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Rasmussen has Romney 33%, Gingrich 22%, Paul 18%, Huntsman 10% .

    Perry at 3% and below Kooky Paul and Huntsman? Something is really wrong or NH just legalized pot.

  • easyb

    Your polling analysis is great, and I much appreciate these posts. Keep ‘em coming!

  • tomatin

    Paul has cult like support with his voters a great organization and has been running even longer than Romney.

    I still think GOP voters might choose Paul just to show their dissatisfaction with the field.

  • expanding_man

    Your point is that Ron Paul does well with independents and democrats, not republicans. That’s clearly true. The Iowa Caucuses only allow Republicans to vote. The problem is that democrats and independents ARE ALLOWED to change their registration on the day of the caucuses at the site itself.

    Paul by far does the best with independents and republicans as compared to the other candidates. He also has the most devoted following and best infrastructure in the state. Many of his supporters are not registered republicans. You will see a lot of folks change there registration to republican on the day of the Caucuses in order to vote for Paul. For the reasons above, I believe Paul will in all likelihood win in Iowa. Not sure what that may mean for the primaries.

    If Paul does not win it will be for one very important reason. Paul blows the other candidates away in terms of attracting young votes. Lots of college students. The problem for Paul is most of these students won’t be at their colleges/universities where it is super easy to vote. Many will be having fun enjoying their breaks from school. They may not vote at all. If not, Paul is sunk.

  • tomatin

    It’s the SC primary that is 100% right in predicting GOP nominee since 1980 in contested primaries.

    SC

    2008 McCain
    2000 GWB
    1996 Dole
    1988 GHWB
    1980 Reagan

    All the GOP Nominees

    IA

    2008 Huckabee
    2000 GWB
    1996 Dole
    1988 Dole
    1980 GHWB

    Wrong 3 out of 5 times.

    NH

    2008 McCain
    2000 McCain
    1996 Buchanon
    1988 GHWB
    1980 Reagan

    Wrong 2 out of 5 times

    Obviously IA is the most fickle and is a poor predictor. Iowa voters also like to upset the apple cart just to be different.

    NH is almost as bad and rejects Southern candidates.

    But when it comes down to where the Republican base really thrives, SC is golden and obviously a great predictor of who the base will nominate.

  • clintonformccain

    Unless Barack Obama buses all his SEIU caucus goers in from Chicago again. Of course, the Republican caucus organizers might be more inclined to ask for the ID from all those strangers they’ve never seen at a caucus before.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You candibots crack me up.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If Newt chokes in NH and IA, then we will rightly judge him for it.

  • tngal

    I mean are they just telling pollsters they’ll vote for her and then won’t bother at the caucus? Or do they plan to register republican, then vote for her so she’ll come out better in Iowa, forcing others to quit? Never did understand the reasoning behind these false moves.I get the theory when its down to two man races – but not when there’s half a dozen players.

    I knew many of Cain’s people went to Newt the week before he dropped and Mrs. B got a share. But Newt’s slipping so maybe she’s benifiting from that. She’s planning to pull a Santorum and visit all Iowa counties over the next two weeks so I could see her getting a real bump not just residual from the dems throwing a hand grenade in the process.

  • bfelger

    I just don’t see Newt doing much better than that. But if he comes within 10%, I see major pucker-factor for Mitt going forward. Mitt HAS to win NH; if he doesn’t, then he might as well drop out.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    NH is harder to tell.

  • center77

    serious as the one who needs to be the nominee. I like that Meets can trick people into thinking he is the best at debating (lying about ones record in reality is not a great thing) but since that is seemingly the case for now, I think we as w party should be worried. It’s not q win if we replace one flip flopping big gov progressive with another, no matter how bad someone wants to pretend it is. Conservatives are going to send the insider, mandate supporting, ten thousand pound baggage carrying, Wilsonite as the nominee. Glen Beck is right about one thing then, the tea party has been for naught, nothing, Zero. They have the whole Rhetoric down, but still fall the same slick talking Big gov candidates like the libs did for Obama. It’s sad indeed, and I don’t care what anybody says, Running Newt sends a bad message to the voters, it means we have not learned from the past.

  • Scope

    Is she superwoman, or are you willing to go over the top with Bachmann as you were with Cain? For Bachmann to impact all 99 counties as her bus drives through all those counties, and she waves from the window, I don’t see how she can have much of an impact in any of the counties. She may have won the straw poll with free food and a bus ride, but she doesn’t have the funding to provide all those fair attendees with vote getting meals on wheels with a bus ride to the literally thousands of caucus locations.

  • tomatin

    What does that mean?

    Facts are not excuses. Whoever wins SC is going to be the nominee.

    $10,000 bet lol.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You know you got caught trying to pre-excuse your candidate not doing as well as you hope, so now you change the subject to some other candidate who hits double digits on a good day after a bottle of water.

    That’s desperation right there.

  • Addison

    I’m not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work, there, Lou…

    Ron Paul probably won’t win the Iowa Caucuses, even though he IS polling well, is the most liked candidate, and is even doing shockingly well as a 2nd choice for voters.

    But it’s not because of this…

    He wins people who don?t vote, but the Iowa caucuses only admit Republicans.

    Except that in polls taken in the months ahead of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, Ron Paul routinely got 3-5%..

    In the final Des Moines Register poll, a week before the election, Ron Paul had gotten up to 9%.

    What share of the caucus delegates did he get? 9.93%

    Apparently, in the Iowa Caucus, Ron Paul overperforms.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008

  • znjs

    Why do you have to crush his dream Neil?

  • JSobieski

    That is the problem with bravado statements—they aren’t based in reality.

  • wonkish1

    Among GOP primary voters.

    NBC/WSJ Poll:

    Gingrich: 40%
    Romney: 23%
    Paul: 9%
    Bachmann: 8%
    Perry: 6%
    Huntsman: 5%
    Santorum:: 3%

    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/111213DecNBCWSJpoll.pdf

    No doubt this poll might be a slight outlier to on the high side for Newt, but the point is that these polls haven’t really moved in the last couple weeks(nothing noteworthy has happened capable of producing any dramatic shift). The same goes for the low end outlier PPP just produced(with Paul up), etc. of which Insider Adv countered.

    The fact is today that RCP averages are probably very close to accurate and people that try to freak out every time an outlier is produced are just going to be disappointed when the next poll reverts back to the RCP average.

  • center77

    and I think Paul is out of touch, the reason the young follow him is because he wants to make drugs legal.

  • papabear

    nt

  • Charlie

    His voters will turn out. Congressman Paul is peaking at the optimum time. As he joins the top tier, many who earlier believed him unelectable are now supporting him as their first choice. The crowded auditoriums provide evidence of this. Meanwhile, Santorum meets and greets at our local ice cream shop.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    **no**text**

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    Because if not, and one could register the day of and/or at the caucus, wouldn’t that mean that its “open” and not closed?

    I would say as one that presided over and attended many cauci back when Sc was a caucus state, that many people leave soon after arriving when they discover that they will have to be there 2-3 hours to finally get to vote.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Even if you can register the day of the caucus, you still have to register as a Republican.

    And Ron Paul’s support can’t be bothered to do that.

  • unclefred

    Perry lost NH support when he refused to acknowledge that his position on instate tuition, and the various amnesty teasers in the Texas statute, were both a mistake in Texas and utterly wrong for the nation. Roughly 10 days later NH wrote him off and stopped listening.

    As I mentioned in a comment to another thread, it took me quite a bit of time and rather extensive conversations with some border state Republicans to understand the disconnect. While the problem is incredibly complex, boiled down to basics it comes down to this. The border states believe that illegals are both necessary to their economies and that they do jobs that Americans won’t do. Non-border states have far smaller illegal populations, and believe that, while their departure would cause economic disruptions.illegals are not necessary to their state economies and that for the most part Americans will do the jobs now filled by illegals.

    Republicans in NH look at the problems illegals cause in Mass and realize that they would have the same level of problems if the NH welfare state was as generous. They do not want that and are unwilling to support a “conservative” who is not dedicated to preserving American citizenship before accommodating illegals who happen to be entrenched in the system.

    Newt and Romney are not much better, but they at least acknowledge these concerns and say things that suggest they are listening. Perry’s position is he’s right take it or leave it. These very sentiments have been expressed by Perry supporters in harsher terms on this site. Republicans in NH have, at least so far, decided to take Perry at his word and leave it and him.

  • texabama

    I feel like a cat in an old Pepe LePeu (sp?) cartoon. A sweet talkin’ skunk is still a skunk.

  • heraklios

    Ron Paul edges Newt in Iowa with Romney slipping as low as 4th or 5th behind Perry and maybe Bachmann

    Romney wins NH narrowly with Newt and Ron Paul right on his heals.

    South Carolina: Does Newt’s big lead hold up, and if not, who benefits?

  • unclefred

    This is at least a 12 year, probably a 20 year fight. The first step is to toss our Obama, and get rid of as much of his damage as possible. Then we need to build a large conservative majority in the Senate and house. Our goal should be 2/3rds in both bodies. Of course than is not possible in 2012, but may be achievable in 2014. In a very real sense we don’t need a conservative president in 2012, as long as they are a Republican, will sign corrective legislation, and appoint conservative judges.

    It is a long road back. 2010 was the first step of many.

  • anonymousbosch

    isn’t it also true to say that 100% of the winners in SC have already won in either IA or NH? Seems like they’re pretty predictive. If you want to win in SC, you have win in IA or NH first. It doesn’t matter which one, but you can’t go 0 for 2. No one has won the nomination who hasn’t won IA or NH.

    Basically SC has broken the tie between IA and NH since no one has yet run the table in those two states.

    If anyone thinks they can lose in IA and NH and then wait for SC where it really matters, I think they’re mistaken.

  • westcoastpatriette

    but here in California–a border state–it simply is not true that we think illegals are necessary for the economy. Californians consistently poll around 65% in favor of strong enforcement of immigration laws and Perry’s support dove here, too when he came off sounding like he is pro-illegal immigration in his first debates. There is pent up anger over this issue as Governor Moonbeam just signed into law a Dream Act making illegals eligible for state sponsored grants for college. A petition is being circulated to repeal the law and will hopefully get on the ballot in the next election.

    So, as I said, I don’t know where you are getting your info about border states. Here in Cali. the people are sick of it and want something done about it. We have approx. three million of them here and we spend $22 billion per year to educate, medicate and incarcerate them.

  • deathandtaxes

    Iowa will be irrelevant. I’ve had enough of letting them dictate the nominee. They voted Huckabee in back in ’08, another candidate that had 0 chance of getting the nomination. Enough of this BS already, it’s hurting the party.

  • retire05

    his butt from a biscut when it comes to border state attitudes.

    It is true that in some cases, illegal labor seems to be necessary, and I would suggest that you contribute to that need. You see, there are jobs that we, as Americans, and due to the push of labor unions, deem beneath us to do. I will give you an example:

    at one point in our recent history, if you needed your lawn mowed, you simply called your neighbor and their teen-aged son would come do it for a reasonable charge. How many teenagers do you know that even have jobs? When was the last time you had some 17 year old boy knock on your door asking if you had any work for him, like cutting your grass, cleaning out the gutters, hauling trash? Most think that their only responsibility is to go to school, make the team, and become experts at computer games. Why? Because their parents have convinced the little darlings that they are “above” such menial labor.

    And at one time, if an American lost their job, they would do any type of work that provided a paycheck. Now, they feel they are entitled to unlimited unemployment benefits. I doubt if you lost your job you would be willing to take one that required you cleaning toilets and making beds after nasty people stayed in a hotel room for minimum wage. Would you be willing to hang onto the energy end of a shovel 8/10 hours a day, doing nothing but digging trenches and then filling them in?

    As to New Hampshire: isn’t it 98% white? Seems like it is NH that has a problem, not Rick Perry. Are NH residents just trying to protect their lilly white demographics, fearing that those nasty Mexicans will invade their pure state? Sure sounds like it.

    Texas, like at least 11 other states, passed in-state tuition for the children of illegals. Now, if you were really a bright fellow, you would know that about 70% of those children of illegals are born here, and hence CITIZENS, entitled to in-state tuition. And you would have realized that the Texas legislation came from a law suit, Texas vs. Certain Named and Unnamed Alien Children which was incorporated with Plyler. But I doubt that you bother much with research.

    In Texas, we don’t punish kids for the crimes of their parents. We also understand that Hispanics have contributed much to our history, some dying at the Alamo, signing our first Constitution as a Republic, others giving their lives in every war we have ever fought. We, unlike NH, seems to have ditched the bigotry that you indicate is prominent in NH.

    And really, who cares what a state that has less population than a mid-sized Texas city, thinks about anything?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    The Je… er, the Neocons have rigged it so Ron Paul won’t win the polls. Clearly he’ll win it all.

  • retire05

    is a self-inflicted gun shot wound.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn’t California give all social welfare benefits to illegals, no questions asked? Do you think that is not a draw since California is bleeding jobs?

    And I think the number of illegals in California is closer to 5 million than 3 million. But hey, if I was a border jumper, and I wanted to make sure I would be given a place to live and food stamps, in the event I could not find a job, California would be my destination.

  • lineholder

    and the citizens of NH bigots just because what unclefred hasn’t stated doesn’t suit you to a tee?

    I live in NC. NC is a non-border state. Our attitude towards immigration here is VERY much so different from what you’ve described the attitude in TX to be. And whether you like it or not, it’s actually the legal immigrants in our state who are the most vocal against illegal immigration.

    Same type of trend is occurring in Maryland, where they just passed a law pertaining to in-state tuition, and an opposition group managed to get the signatures on protest that put the law in suspension and put the issue on open ballot for the next election year. And guess what? Most of those signatures came from legal immigrants!

    The whole country doesn’t revolve around what TX wants or what TX believes is the way to do things, retire05

  • westcoastpatriette

    since the liberals have hijacked the state I’m not positive about which welfare crap they allow them to get, but as I said, according to FAIR’s stats, they cost us $22 billion per year and people are furious about it.

    Read just the other day that one of the Dems in Sacramento was crafting legislation to make our entire state a sanctuary state. They have lost their minds and could care less what the federal laws are. Here we are on the verge of bankruptcy and these idiots are giving handouts to illegals.

  • Lucas Black

    Le Purrrrr?

  • mikeymike143

    In other words, 93% of tea party members wisely reject this anti semitic loser as a presidential candidate.

    Republican Presidential Nomination Preferences, by Ideology and Tea Party Support.
    (Based on Republican and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote)

    TEA PARTY SUPPORTER %:

    Newt Gingrich 47%
    Mitt Romney 17%
    Michele Bachmann 8%
    Rick Perry 7%
    Ron Paul 7%
    Rick Santorum 4%
    Jon Huntsman <1%
    Other/Any/None 11%

    Gallup Daily Tracking. Dec 1-5, 2011

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/151355/Gingrich-Romney-Among-GOP-Voters-Nationwide.aspx

    In fact, Tea Party Fort Lauderdale, America?s longest running tea party, recently held a straw poll for it?s members asking for our choice of candidate as POTUS, and also the man or woman we thought would make the worst president. And unlike the usual straw polls that the delusional paulbots spam up, this poll was only open to actual group members.

    And our straw poll numbers validated the Gallup poll numbers. Ron Paul finished with Jon Huntsman as THE ONLY TWO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES to pull in less than 5% support from our group. However, the left wing cancer that Paul spreads was not appreciated by our conservative members as career politican Paul overwhelmingly won as the candidate we least wanted to see as president, winning that dubious honor by a huge margin over our second place loser(Huntsman).

    Tea Party Fort Lauderdale Presidential Straw Poll

    The question was asked;

    Who would you least like to receive the Republican nomination to run against Barack Obama?

    1st Place

    Ron Paul 38%

    Jon Huntsman 16%

    Mitt Romney 13.5%

    Rick Perry 12.5%

    Undecided 9.5%

    331 people participated in this straw poll that ran from 10/13 ? 10/21

    Tea Party Fort Lauderdale, America?s Longest Running Tea Party www.TeaPartyFortLauderdale.com

    These numbers also fall in line with Wrong Paul?s performance in the last presidential elections. As I recall, he won a bunch of straw and internet polls. And his delusional paulbot followers claimed this represented reality. Of course, us sane people knew that he had no real life political support. And that was proven in the 2008 when the nutjob only got 5% of the primary vote. That means 19 OUT OF 20 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS REJECTED HIM AS A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE LAST ELECTION!!!

    And of course his followers are the dirtbags of society. Conspiracy loons, anti war leftists, and anti semites. That is why the Republican Jewish Coalition banned him and his paulbots from the presidential debate they moderated. And that is why most sites, including this one, have policies banning paulbots. I say they are a cancer to the conservative movement and we should treat them like lepers and shun them.

    http://www.redstate.com/mikeymike143/2011/12/12/new-gallup-poll-nutjob-ron-paul-only-gets-7-of-the-tea-party-vote/

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Only an idiot would try to claim that anyone who disagrees with Perry on that issue must be racist.

    Don’t be an idiot.

  • onemovoter

    That is forcing all states to educate, medicate, and give welfare to illegals no matter what.

    This is one of those unfunded mandates that is part of the awesome “public education” right we have in this country thanks for the liberals. The states would be freed up of such expenses if those in the Federal Government would repeal such mandate and allow the states to finally take the power they have constitutionally and refuse service to any illegal.

    Once that happened, you would see a huge exodus of illegals from this country without having to really do anything.

    That would mean states would no longer have to educate, medicate or welfare illegals. The cries from liberals obviously would be quite loud, but once people saw the problem go away, they would tell liberals to STFU.

    I do hope Perry, if he gets the nod, will look into doing such a thing. He is acutely aware of the problem and the need to fix it.

  • davesinsanantonio

    is to put a conservative in the White House. A “moderate” will appoint so-called moderate judges and justices. A wishy-washy flip-flopper will appoint people to the bench based on political pay-back or some other selfish criteria.
    A spineless wuss may not sign legislation that is too strongly for conservative principles, fearing backlash from “across the aisle”.

    Yes, it will be a long fight. It will be longer, and harder to even make headway in, if we don’t elect real conservatives at every level, every election. RINO weasels will not help the cause. The TEA Party needs to tattoo that on the insides of their eyelids, so they can’t forget it!!!

  • tngal

    And actually she’s made it harder on herself by not starting until this Friday, she takes a day off Christmas and plans to end by the 28th. And as for going “over the top” for her as I am for Cain – nah. And I’m certianly not over the top for her as much as some Newt and Perry people are about their candidates. Or Paullies are about theirs. Was just pointing out her bump could have some legitimacy to it and not all attributable to dems jumping in the mix.

    Her schedule for Friday and Saturday are up at the Des Moines register. Its pretty grueling. Last big push I guess.

    http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/13/michele-bachmanns-busy-schedule-for-friday-and-saturday/

  • williamjameson

    NUFF SAID!!! RP will never get elected being nuke friendly plus RP thinks we should have an open border policy………..so European and out of touch.

    Never seen a LP debate either issue convincingly. LP needs to restructure their beliefs on both issues.

  • btpull

    Both the PPP and Insider Advantage polls are based on voters who who plan to vote in the Republican Caucus.

    PPP sampled a population of Iowa voters who responded “Yes” to Republican in the following question: “Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?”

    Insider Advantage’s poll is based on “Among Registered Voters Who Will be Voting in Iowa’s Republican Presidential Primary”

    For the author to reach his conclusion about Paul he fundamentally is trying to change the definition of the population surveyed to one of a general population of voters from a population of voters who plan to vote in the Republican caucus.

    So, yes, Gingrich is in first and Paul is second among the Iowa voters who plan to vote in the Republican Iowa caucus in both polls. Logically you cannot draw a different conclusion.

    What is interesting in the PPP poll is Paul has the highest level of committed voters and Gingrich has the highest level of supporters who might vote for someone else. 40% of Gingrich voters identified Romney as their second choice.

  • ryan1990

    Seriously, this is about time.

    Nobody, not a single news media outlet have challenged the Ron Paul campaign…at least until now.

    Why A (Gingrich) and B (Romney) to continue to attack each other is absurd!

    Because if A or B continues to attack each other, Paul becomes the front runner and ideals of the Republican party.

    The strategist of both the Romney & Gingrich are completely ignorant.

    Both should attack Paul in the next debate because Gingrich can’t survive if he’s #2 and Romney will have a hard time surviving if he’s #3.

  • jkines

    as Newt has no definable path to victory in the general election. At this point we have to focus on retaining the House and taking the Senate. The Presidency itself is all but a lot cause.

  • retire05

    The state is 98% white. Even the black population is only 2/10th of a percent. Hispanics are so few they didn’t even register in the last NH census as a percentage. Now, if you want to argue that NH is not biased against illegals, then make that argument. But a state that has few minorities usually is not very friendly toward them.

    And yes, the attitude of some states that are just now seeing an influx of minorities has a much different attitude than a state where certain ethic groups have ALWAYS been part of their demographic.

    Rick Perry is right about one thing; there is no need to have any discussion about what to do with 12-20 million illegals until we have secure, closed borders. And there is no one who is currenly on the GOP ticket that has expanded the time, and state money, to do that like he has. But you seem to think that there is some magic formula that the U.S. can use that will cause all illegals to return to their native lands. I would be interested in knowing that that formula is.

    So here are some questions for you:

    how would you force those illegals to leave this country?

    what would you do with their American born children since an American cannot be deported?

    You see, the “round them all up” mentality doesn’t work, unless you are some kind of dictator who has the power and strength to do such a thing.

    Now you seem to have a major problem with in-state tuition for kids who we Americans have been required to educate through the 12th grade (by SCOTUS ruling) and who have probably spent most of their lives here, if not their entire lives. So what is your plan? Keep them from getting a higher education so that they are reduced to being second class the rest of their lives? Let them know that no matter how hard they work, how well they assimilate, they will never be allowed to attend a college or university at in-state tuition, although their parents have been (unlike some welfare families) paying taxes to that state for years? And how far do you want to take it? If one of their parents commits another crime, perhaps robbery, do you want to punish the kids for that in the event the parent slips back across the border?

    Perhaps you would rather have those kids, knowing they will never be accepted although the U.S. is the only home they have ever known, resort to crime? Because it is those very kids the drug cartels are recruiting.

    Let’s say that the “wet foot, dry foot” policy had never been implemented for Cubans. Would you want Marco Rubio deported? Because if it were not for “wet foot, dry foot”, many Cubans, just like Marco Rubio, would be illegal.

    So you come up with a rational, reasonable solution that doesn’t deport American citizens. I am more than willing to listen.

    Illegal immigration is a problem, I am the first to admit that. But until the states themselves (like California who hands out welfare and other states who give them driver’s licenses) ends those practices, they will come. And they will come as long as Americans think that being a ditch diggers or a hotel maid is beneath them to work at. As long as there are jobs that Americans refuse to do, there will be some illegal who was making $5/day in Guatamala who will try to come here to earn that $7/hour.

  • getitright4achange

    If Ron Paul had followers who were unmotivated, he would NEVER be where he is in the polls, nor would he have financial backing to stay in. He is the only one truly looking out for the next generation.

    If he does so well with Democrats and Independents and is clearly the only one of the top three to stand truly and fully for individual liberty and self-responsibility, then maybe he’s the perfect candidate to defeat the Socialist in the White House. People paint him as anti-military, but he loves our military and will utilize them as intended, rather than as disaster workers, country rebuilders, and world police. He values their lives and commitment and how they have been misused and abused.

    Those of us who are Conservatives need to remind ourselves that the anointed top two contenders are still big gov’t types and have supported health insurance mandates on some level. Let’s not forget the half million dollar line of credit at Tiffany’s either–that’s not the type of fiscal responsibility I’m looking for. Over the years, I can’t count how many calls I received asking for donations to some new foundation Newt was creating. He has an interesting way of getting others to pay for his causes and furthering his status.

    No one understands the importance of a solid currency and the manipulations of the Fed like Ron Paul. We can pretend we will not be bailing out Europe, but the workings of the Central Banks says otherwise. Ron Paul was warning about the GSEs YEARS before the housing bubble, while Republicrats were celebrating that everyone, even entry-level burger flippers, could obtain a mortgage. What kind of hope do those entry-level burger flippers have now that they’re bankrupt and foreclosed?

    We need to cut the budget (not just the increase, but the previous year’s budget) by 1% every year until the budget is balanced. How did that reasonable proposal get kicked to the curb and forgotten?

    How does ANY temporary policy, like the SS tax cut, create jobs or do anything but promote Robin Hood economics? As a business owner, I won’t hire based on ANYTHING temporary.

    When will we know we have enough laws? It seems we’re on a self-imposed road to tyranny. Maybe the job of Congress should, instead, be the consideration of which laws to repeal. I don’t see the way back to liberty when gov’t regulates the flush volume of our toilets. That’s why we need the balance of a true liberty protector in the White House.

    Sound bytes have sold Newt and Romney. Many people no longer seem to have the attention span to listen to a person of deep and broad understanding, like Paul. Such people are quick to label his followers cultish. Such people are also often more comfortable with the status quo.

  • ryan1990

    Idiot me:

    “Both should attack Paul in the next debate because Gingrich can?t survive if he?s #2 and Romney will have a hard time surviving if he?s #3.”

    …But both can survive if their #1 or #2 respectively.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Because they will never vote for a Republican Presidential candidate not named Ron Paul.

  • avagreen

    What is your answer to this post above:
    http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2011/12/13/no-ron-paul-is-not-a-threat-to-win-the-iowa-caucuses/#comment-19539

  • rdm42

    You use ONE poll result in ONE year and ONE Caucus result to say that Ron Paul over-performs in Iowa CAUCUSES(Plural)?

  • unitedwestood

    About the states having to give all this. I think Perry did a horrible job of explaining the position Texas has on education. I can only go back to what I think on the topic.. and with my own reasoning ( right or wrong) I remember there being a huge struggle here in Texas to get the Feds to deport the illegals we’re keeping in our prisons. This DOES cost the tax payer. Gov. Perry billed the U.S 300 million, I believe was the number… but like always, the’re not paying. Anyway, his comment was this– Will you deport them this time, or will you just drop them on the corner and we have to start all over ” LIKE LAST TIME”. This is a huge problem. I have no dought in my mind that Perry would secure the border, but what exactly is he supposed to do with them in the mean time?

    What I find horribly wrong here is Perry being jumped on for instate-tuition for people we are made to educate to the 12th grade. There is no getting around that 12 year education. Now, I’ve come to learn that states are different on education costs. Kansas, you pay for your kids to enroll in school K-12 My first two cost me 176.00 each in the 9th grade. However, in Texas and Missouri, you don’t have any school fees. ( We private or homeschooled the two little ones)

    I would think the bigger issue would be “free” schooling from K-12… not instate-tuition in college for kids that the state of Texas has already had to support for perhaps 12 years. Those same students aren’t getting a free ride to a higher education, they’re getting the same treatment as any other resident of Texas …………3 years in our state, or have graduated from our High schools. We can’t kick them out … so what do you do with them… Tell them, we will freely educated you at the expense of the tax payer to the 12 grade, we will treat you medically in our emergency rooms.. but you can not go to our college unless you pay out of state tuition.. and this is supposed to be some sort of calling card for them to come across the boarder? Hardly! Now, if we would tighten that boarder, stop giving them welfare and the k-12 education, that might stop them… but I hardly think giving instate-tuition is a calling card for illgals to come here. More like all the Federal freebee’s.

    Also, if the higher education at instate-tuition prices keeps them from being in our prisons.. I’m all for it. That means that perhaps one of my family memebers doesn’t fall victim to one of their crimes. ————————– In Missouri they can have a State issued Drivers License. I know, I hired three of them. They were my best workers. They had Birth Certificates, Social Security cards and Missouri Issued drivers licenses.. they also signed the I-9′s. When I found out they were illegal, I called the local police dempartment, they said.. You have to call the Sheriffs department, They said you have to call this number, I called that number….. They said ” They aren’t wanted – WORK THEM!” this was 2005. I didn’t continue to work them.. but the other jobs they had did. I asked them.. where did you get all this stuff…………..3,000.00 for the documents. So, the instate-tuition to me is just a minor problem with illegals. ( These are just my experinces and thoughts on the topic)

  • expanding_man

    on the day of the caucus. His supporters are much more devoted than the supporters of Romney and Gingrich. They care less about parties.

    Your point is that Dem and Independent supporters of Paul don’t matter due to the fact that it’s a closed primary. Perhaps. I think we’ll find that the primary is not as “closed” as many assume with respect to Paul voters.

  • clowngirl

    The anti-Newt ads (which I’m picturing as coming on during virtually every commercial break) seem to be taking a toll.

    Am also nervous at reports as to how much more campaigning Bachman, Santorum and Perry are doing in Iowa and hope Newt steps it up and doesn’t get overconfident.

    I would like to agree with Neil’s analysis — and maybe their are “soft” Ron Paul supporters this cycle – I have come across some people who say, if anyone, they support Ron Paul — who don’t seem hard core or crazy for that matter. But most of them I’ve come across seem ultra zealous and more than willing to register as a Republican to vote in a closed caucus and eager to show up and do it,

    Paul has the advantage of being so out there with his views that none of the other candidates or even most of the media bother to attack him — so he gets to present his self narrative as the principled libertarian basically without challenge.

  • mattwaters

    I am not at all amazed at Ron Paul’s numbers?I”ve maintained he will be the nominee. What I’m amazed at is the continual dissing that the so-called conservative media is doing and how they completely dodge him and write him off. They simply name call — crazy, kooky, weird, quirky, Iowans.

    It sounds like the debates I have with my conservative friends who say “Pauls followers are a little touched, or out of touch, etc.” Same line. So, Paul is out of touch, ergo, I’m out of touch. What you are saying is you are in touch. (Not only is this arrogant, but is has become for this long-time Paul guy a dreadfully boring and un-original.)

    And I would suggest to you that Paul is the only guy in touch. (Yes, that would mean you are not in touch)

    Unfortunately, we get the same Ron Paul media line, which is a story in and of itself. Hotair, predicts after Paul wins: “Romney should have stayed in Iowa, should have left, no, I mean stayed in Iowa –’er, I mean Romney should have spent more money, or pushed his people to go Paul.” That’s laughable. I mean really? You think that the media will be discussing Romney’s tactics?or a brokered convention?after Paul wins? (Well, they probably will because they don’t see what is sitting right in front of them, the obvious.)

    The real questions are still not being asked, talked about or debated, and they never will until Ron Paul is prepping for his debate against Obama. How many independents will he attract?
    What are his numbers against Obama?
    Who will he pick as VP (that will come in around March);
    OR
    “Wow, did you see what Paul did to the Newter? Think he would destroy Obama the same way?”
    OR
    “Wow, anybody notice that Paul just smashed the conservative establishment?”
    OR
    2012 shaping up to be a-typical year
    OR
    Why or how could the GOP establishment, “conservative” talk radio, Erick Erickson, Human Events, Nat’l Review, Weekly Standard, TownHall, Newsmax be 180 degrees wrong?
    OR
    Dissed by Value Voters, dissed by CPAC, dissed by (fill in the blank), when all along the truth (Paul’s strength and probability that he wins) is right in front of their eyes?
    OR
    The conservative media just as biased as the liberal media? Ouch. That will be left to TIME magazine and MSNBC.
    (And there is Paul’s strength again?he is taking conservatism outside of the National Review?to college campuses, etc., and they love it).
    OR
    The liberals really respect Paul, so much so that I think many vote for him based on humility, honesty, etc. (see Juan Williams, others).

    Maybe a new thing is happening in politics: principled leadership, good ideas (END the Fed–that’s quirky), completely new tactics based on IDEAS, outreach, the internet (twitter, meet up, Facebook, etc.)

    It used to be that “conservatives” had ideas. Reagan had ideas, Kemp had a few. Forbes ran on an idea. Goldwater was ideas. Paul?he’s nuts! What happened? There’s another story buried in there. How was it that the conservative movement became defined by Rush, W, Palin, Hannity, FOX, etc.? We are completely devoid of ideas?but along came a 75 year old Texan..and the rest is history.

    MW

  • clowngirl

    Granted, in 2008 he was only polling 7.9 percent — and coming in at 9.9% he was still a non-factor. Quite probably now, when some polls show him at 21% a lot of his support is soft.

    But in NY, the typical Ron Paul supporter I saw was ultra zealous (often believing a number of crazy conspiracy theories) fully willing to both register as a Republican and to caucus for Ron Paul.

    Ron Paul, as I see it has two big advantages:

    1. Because nobody bothers to attack him, he can come off as idealistic and unsullied.

    2. Because hardly anybody thinks he’ll actually get the nomination (and he won’t) most of his supporters don’t hold him to the same standard. They aren’t asking if Ron Paul can beat Obama or is really a plausible President — it’s more like wouldn’t it be cool if he won the Iowa caucuses and shook things up – made some of the other candidates pay attention, maybe adopt some of his views?

  • clowngirl

    He has no competition. He is the only basically libertarian candidate running other than Gary Johnson who was left out of most every debate ( which was a huge gift to Ron Paul)

    Newt, Perry and all the other well, normal candidates have to compete with 6 others.

    It would still be a huge embarrassment if Dr. Paul won in Iowa. Newt needs to take this last poll seriously and step up his game locally.

  • clowngirl

    and Newt decisively finishes first out of the non Ron Paul candidates the increasingly likely scenario is that Newt would win New Hampshire and win big in South Carolina.

  • retire05

    because, although Paulbots seem to have the ability to load any poll (just look at the NRO poll), that does not work out to actual voters.

    And yes, a lot of Paul devotees are nuts. All they hear is that he would legalize drugs and they are solidly in his camp. 90% of them have never met Paul, never really campaigned for him, are not aware of the sneaky way he manages to get pork for his district, or that he long ago went back on every promise he made when he first ran for office (like self-imposed term limits).

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    unless we know when one must register by. SC is open, meaning one can walk in the day of, just like in Iowa and can’t vote in another party’s caucus/primary that cycle. That one “registers” that day is quite irrelevant since in SC the act of voting in the chosen primary has the same consequence.

    Obviously. the Iowa caucuses are open my any fair meaning of the word.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    If so, then that does render the “closed” label with some meaning. But even so, to truly evaluate how “closed” is Iowa, we would need to know the period within which those previously registered as Dems or Indies could change registration, and of course if they can change registration on the day of the caucus, then the word “closed” truly has no practical meaning to differentiate it from Opens!

    Some states require one to be registered up to a year before. Now that is closed!

    I know this doesn’t much relate to what you think may deter Paulistas, though I can’t see how merely registering as a Republican would be much of a deterrent (having to hang out 2-3 hours is the usual deterrent to prospective cauci attenders), but with the term “closed” having such vastly different meanings so as to be an offense to the English language, my Websterian hackles are raised! smile

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    Quite simply, Perry’s brand of high octane social conservatism just doesn’t sell in NH. NH Republicans by definition lean more libertarian (Live Free or Die is on the license plates) and I think I saw a stat once that people in NH have the lowest % of church attendence in the country. That is why Republicans that do well in the Iowa Caucus often have trouble performing in NH – and why Bachman and Perry are polling so low there now. However, a Ron Paul actually could win Iowa and be 2nd or even win NH – as he’s a better fit for NH than Iowa. Additionally the French Canadian influence as well as Italians and Irish moving up fron Massachusetts throughout the years, also means there are a lot of Catholics in the state too.NH Republicans are also a modest crowd (hard pressed to see NH folks on the cable news shows) that really don’t care about abortion or school prayer, but rather about spending (flinty, cheap New Englanders) and taxes (no broadbased sales or income tax in the state).

    To repeat, I don’t think Perry’s poor polling in the state reflects in any way his stance on illegals – what it does reflect is that he was never a good fit for the state to begin with, he has run a lousy, gaffe ridden campaign that has dragged his aggregate numbers down everywhere, and do to his late entry and ceding the state to Romney and others, he hasn’t really put in any effort there either.

  • Scope

    all along has been that because Obama is not being primaried, many Democrats will cross over and vote for our weakest or worst candidate that they know the Republicans would never elect as the nominee. Ron Paul most definitely qualifies for that position.

    If you look at the polls that include Democrats and all Independents, Paul always has the most of his support coming from the Democrats and Independents, while the Republicans in his column are always small in number. There is most definitely shenanigans going on.

    Every state that doesn’t require registration in a party at least 30 days prior to an election should automatically lose half their delegates, or be made to be the last states holding GOP primaries or cauci. There has got to be some way to punish states that allow these voting shenanigans year after year.

  • Scope

    the Iowa Cauci registration issue and from what I’ve read, the cauci attendees can walk into their cauci location the night of the cauci and change their registration right there and then. If you are already a registered Republican, you don’t need to change that. Only the Democrats and Independents need to change their registrations. It’s closed in the sense that one must be a registered Republican to participate, but when one can change that 5 minutes before participation makes it closed in name only. I have not one tiny bit of doubt that the Paulheads would go to homes and carry people on their backs to the caucus locations to vote for their hero. They could care less if they are die hard liberals, and will remain die hard liberals the next day.

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    beware oif getting attacked now! :)

    I think NH also likes sending a message to the candidates. Too Bob Dole it was that “you are a weak candidate” and that there is a residual 20% – 25% anti-establishment that likes the Buchanans or Pauls – even if their politics are a little different. In fact I voted for Lamar Alexander I believe, who came in a decent 3rd in NH.

    Too George W. Bush it was “you have to work for this, just because your name is Bush, we are’t going to hand it to you”. McCain worked hard and connected – and yes, NH has a bit of a bias against candidates that are seen as more southern social conservatives.

  • carolynr

    All this talk about Perry doing a poor job with explaining that the STATE prefers payers rather than takers and that they must be in the process of applying for citizenship…and they are children of Illegals…that is poor.

    BUT…here you are talking about Paul, who has no chance in heck of winning…and if he runs third party, will put Obama in for sure. Meanwhile…on Drudge today…and Politico…CT wants to allow illegals to VOTE.

    God…you know…we deserve what we get…we are stuck on stupid when it comes to recognizing someone that can fix this country. 60% of the country says that government is too big…AND HERE WE ARE…top two candidates…BIG GOVERNMENT…and some nut job who wants to allow everything to “just happen”…while the pot fumes rise to the ceiling.

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    . . . if I were Romney or Gingrich. The nominee is going to need these voters, because if Paul feels disrespected and without having a Congressional seat to run for decides to seek the Libertarian nomination, then there is absolutely 0% chance the Republican can win a general.

    As a Romney supporter – I say “Go Ron Paul” – if Newt looses Iowa, then the story will be “Newt lost Iowa”. The Romney folks can always say they never really targeted Iowa anyway b/c of Mormon bias and simply cite Governor Branstad and Bob Vander Plaats criticizing Romney for not putting in the effort in Iowa. Will be easier to spin a Romney 3rd – when he has never led there, than a Newt blowing a big lead.

  • acat

    I’d have to go check my notes, but… that’s Green Party / Ralph Nader territory.

    Face it, Ron Paul is the new Pat Paulsen.

    Mew

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Zip up and give your mom back her laptop punk.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    And he’d probably make a comparable President to Paul.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    http://blogs.gocomics.com/contests/

  • izoneguy
  • Repair_Man_Jack

    1) They’d smoke lots of doobage.
    2) They’d empty the fridge.
    3) They’d oversleep and not make it to the caucus meetings and polling stations in time to vote for him when it counted.

    That probably explains how he was the FDR of straw poll domination but failed to even register in the actual primaries last time out.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    he wants to make the military irrelevant…

  • trickamsterdam

    Now I don’t have to write it (I love it on a site when that happens).

    Would also add to the guy who said there is no reason for Perry to care about a state w/a population of a medium -sized Texas city…um, it’s pretty important to winning the nomination.

    Just like debating. But then, he didn’t care about that either (his wife told an interviewer after the third debate that he hadn’t practiced for any of them).

    I like Ron Paul, but as a Newt supporter I hope he fails.

    I am tired of Romney and his supporters and want Newt to knock him out as soon as possible (I just can’t stand the way Coulter, G. Will, J. Rubin, etc are trying to make the argument that he’s more conservative than Newt…it’s ridiculous…they should just make the argument that he’s more electable and leave it at that).

  • expanding_man

    You did what I couldn’t in explaining the “closed” Iowa primaries. I don’t know why they do it this way. I think that folks should be required to register as a Republican prior to the day of the caucus. My guess is that people get turned away from the caucus site and are angry.

  • cbartlett

    of the problem and I do NOT believe he his pro-amnesty, regardless of what NH thinks. The in-state tuition rates was merely designed to give those kids that Texas IS federally mandated to “educate, medicate & welfare”, an opportunity to attend state colleges at in-state rates. Texas is NOT giving them grants (like California) – only in-state rates. A very small percentage of students actually take advantage of this – they still have to be fairly good students and really want to attend college because they still have to graduate with the right college-bound credits from high school, take entrance exams (SAT, ACT, etc), apply to the school and be accepted. This would, hopefully, keep these kids from dropping out of high school, have an anchor baby and have ties to be able to stay and continue the “educate, medicate & welfare” cycle for yet another generation. (And they are required to apply for citizenship as part of the deal, BTW.) The Texas legislature’s (and Perry’s) view was that we were trying to turn a tax-taker into a tax-payer. Perry has ALWAYS said this was right for Texas and not necessarily for the entire country. It makes me angry that states like NH judge that statement and basically say Perry is a liar. Let a state deal with a problem that is unique to them in the way they think is best. Perry is the ONLY candidate that will attempt to do away with all of this federal control and get these kind of issues back to the states – primarily because he has experienced the results first-hand for so many years. It is the only hope we have of getting rid of big Washington federal government control (and spending) in this country in all sorts of areas. I wish all of those people from non-border states would get that and quit blaming Perry. He actually has no problem with the feds rounding up and deporting people like they are SUPPOSED to do!

  • dagnaytaggard

    Boy, these neocons are going rabid at the very thought that Ron Paul could win anything. Goes to prove how uninformed these folks are about what Ron Paul represents and stands for. These writers are so unethical that they will print anything just to get their names out there. The reality is that all of these national polls are rigged in favor of the chosen one, which is primarilly Romney, but they will settle for progressive Newt. Anything to the contrary will be criticized. Anyone of their chosen candidates will further their NWO agenda, but not Ron Paul.

    Newt represents everything the grassroots have been fighting against these many years. Supporting Newt will destroy the movement?s credibility. Fortunately, THE FACT is that not all tea party groups and 912ers support him. Many people are simply uninformed about the dangers of electing Newt Gingrich. He will change our Constitution, he supports gun ban, the health care mandate, illegal immigration, the United Nations, bailouts, global warming, the green agenda etc., etc.

    He hasn?t changed unless he underwent a brain transplant since he left congress. He is a progressive at heart. He is a war monger and will probably start WWIII which will take little to spark considering what?s happening in the middle east and Europe. Just about anyone could beat Obama. Newt comes with lots of baggage that will surface and hurt the elections. Unfortunately, for those that think he is the only solution because we have to beat Obama are simply dreaming, since you will be replacing one evil with another. Nothing will change for the better. Newt is an egotist and dangerous.

    Don’t listen to these unethical journalists. They want you to think that your vote will not count if you vote for a true constitutional conservative. That’s how they get us everytime. We shouldn?t be settling, we should be fighting for the continuance of our Republic by supporting, defending and protecting our US Constitution. Only a constitutional candidate will do this, and that is RON PAUL! A vote for Newt, Perry or Romney is a vote for Obama. They?ll win regardless. VOTE RON PAUL 2012!!

  • lineholder

    the fact that YOU called the people in the state of NH racial bigots back off onto me by saying that I have a problem with illegal immigrants. You dug this particular hole all by yourself, and rather than owning up to the fact that it might not have been the smartest thing to do, you want to double down on it???

    Here’s a head’s up…11 states may have passed laws supporting in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, but that means 39 states have NOT done so.

    You aren’t actually listening to what people in other states are telling you, retire05, and personally, what I would suggest is that you go back and read the latter part of unclefred’s statement about what is taking place in the state of NH regarding the general outlook on Gov. Perry’s position on this issue. Because IF that is true, retire05, it needs to be addressed.

    Why? Because NH is an early primary state and Gov. Perry needs to correct whatever the underlying confusion or anything else that might exist in this case so that he has every possible opportunity to succeed.

    If he doesn’t, I can tell you right now that he doesn’t want to leave this particular issue hanging in the wind going into SC. The law in the state of SC is that you have to have either proof of citizenship or a student visa to even APPLY at a 4-year state-funded college. That’s what the people of SC support, and I would be inclined to say that Gov. Perry’s position on this issue is likely to influence the opinions of the people in that state as well, wouldn’t you? And if they see him making the effort to correct any misunderstandings about what position might be before the primaries in that state, could it have a positive influence on the opinions of voters in the primary? Oh, yeah, it definitely could do that.

    So put your talking points on hold this time, okay, and get the word back to whoever it needs to go to that this needs to be taken care of pronto.

  • lineholder

    as to where actually does/does not stand, then he does need to correct it before going into SC. SC’s laws pertaining to illegal immigrants and higher education may very well be some of the strictest in the nation.

    Blow of NH as being a lost cause if you want to, but I don’t think Perry can blow off SC that way and stay in this.

  • Addison

    …I didn’t include all the poll data I was looking at.

    Anyone who looks at the graph of the dozens of polls result leading up to the Iowa race will see that he starts out at 3-4%, goes up to about 7%,, and polled 9% in the very last poll. You’re welcome to verify that. Dozens of polls. Not one.

    And yes, in one year, but again, dozens of polls.

    And yes, one Caucus, the Iow one (i.e. the most relevant possible caucus that could possibly be used).

    No, I don’t think he’ll get 21%, I think the MOE needs to be invoked with that latest PPP poll. No, I don’t think he’ll win. But given a pretty similar event 4 years ago, the “Ron Paul attracts people who don’t vote” theory did not hold up, and Ron Paul is the 2nd choice of a surprisingly large number of people if you look at the crosstab..

  • Scope

    because that is exactly where he is headed.

  • avagreen

    I tire of people who don’t live in border states trying to tell Texas how to conduct their internal business.

    Does any other state get this treatment?

    Maybe. I just don’t know. But, Texas has received boatloads of criticisms for years on this issue…….from people who no idea of what they are talking about because they don’t have to deal with the problem of 1.6 million illegals within THEIR border that the Feds won’t let them deport, but insist that we not only pay for their care, schooling, but also for their prison care (the second highest illegal prison population in the U.S.) at the cost of $250 million and that’s an old number of 2009.
    http://www.reporternews.com/news/2010/aug/19/jailed-illegal-immigrants-tab-250m/.

  • retire05

    Do you deny that NH is 98% white? Obviously, minorities don’t feel very welcome there or they would move there. Or is it perhaps because NH is not creating jobs that would cause minorities to want to live there? Or it is such a high tax state that people, of all races, discount it as a future home?

    Frankly, I don’t care what is happening in NH. Obviously, nothing too important since I am not reading about how its taxes are being lowered and it is creating jobs like some of the southern states. And what does NH have? Maybe 2 electoral votes? Wow! Count me as not impressed.

    Governor Perry was very clear in his stance, to those listening who had at least two grey cells bumping together. The in-state tuition issue is a STATE’S issue. Nothing less, nothing more. Unless you can find anywhere in the Constitution that says education is a FEDERAL issue. People in South Carolina are free to make their own decisions about their own tax payer supported universities. We, in Texas, would rather see these kids, who were brought here by their parents, without their permission, get a university education and become tay PAYERS, not tax SPONGES.

    South Carolina has approximately 385,000 illegal immigrants in a state with a population of 9 1.2 million. How many people in South Carolina live in public housing? Can an illegal live in public housing in South Carolina? Get food stamps? GET A DRIVER’S LICENCE?

    Frankly, if given a choice between a hard working illegal and a native born leech that will spend their entire life living off public welfare, I’ll take the hard working illegal.

  • lineholder

    any sector of the population in this nation when we have so much at stake is about to get on my last functioning nerve, so to speak.

    This is NOT a game. It’s our nation’s entire future that we’re fighting for here.

  • gekster

    You sentance:
    Goes to prove how informed these folks are about what Ron Paul represents and stands for.

    Kust off by two leters.
    corrected:
    Goes to prove how informed these folks are about what Ron Paul represents and stands for.

    You don’t seam to get that we DO know about Dr. Paul.

  • lineholder

    What is it with Perry’s supporters that they can’t actually listen????

    Stop trying to project this back onto me. And drop the talking a points for thirty seconds and THINK.

    Is it worth the time and effort to make sure that the electorate knows exactly where Perry stands on this or not? If it is, then take the advice of “better safe than sorry” and put forth the effort.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    because Pilgrim sent me the greenpapers.com links and they do not get into any of those specifics. I have have a pet peeve with how parties and state governments are so incompetent in making such info accessible since I was a precinct president in SC 30 years ago. And even now, all I have is, Scope told me so! smile

    The fact is that Iowa closed is the same as SC open except that one must “register”, i.e. sign a card in Iowa that day. What kind of an obtuse voter intent on casting a vote in a GOP Iowa caucus would balk because they had to sign a card registering as just such a Republican, especially when registration seems to mean Jack Squat in Iowa? Only the mentally ill.

    Just a DeVine pet peeve.

    And expanding, the point is that simply knowing of state characterizes their caucus or primary as open or closed imparts little useful info without knowing the specific details.

    Iowa closed is like SC open!

    God bless you Scope for that info. If you have a link, please send. I’m having to do legal work today but am planning some columns this weekend and might use that info if you can find it because after Pil’ sent me the greenpapers.com links, knowing how thorough he is on this stuff, I’m not gonna click my life away trying to clean up the open/closed meaningless mess! smile

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    This Iowa “closed” characterization also causes me to worry that Perry and other tea partiers voters might think they can’t vote when they actually can, given the ordinary meaning of the word closed. I hate lazy use of the English language that misleads people.

    God bless you gal.

  • jkines

    I’ve voted Republican in every presidential race since 1988 and down the line republican in every presidential race since that time, Gary Johnson, who I realize has no chance at this point, is my first choice, but I may well vote Paul in the Florida primary at this point.

    While I disagree with Paul’s isolationist foreign policy stance, I am equally at oddsw with the neo-Wilsonianism of the neocons. When it comes to foreign policy I’m anb old line realist in the vein of The National Interest”, and at times I feel like the last realist left in the party. The only candidate with anything close to a realist approach on foreign policy is Huntsman.

    However, economics and the defense and promotion of free markets are the primary concern of this election, dwarfing all other concerns. Of those candidates left, Paul is the one I most trust to be an unwavering defernder of free market capitalism, and it is on that basis that he MIGHT garner my primary vote.

    I simply don’t trust Romney or Newt to defend and advance free market principles and for me every other concern is peripheral to that. Once you get past Newt, Mitt, and Paul the other candidates really aren’t even in the mix at this point. Hence, I honestly do not feel like I have a viable choice other than Paul in the Florida primary at this juncture. A lot may change between now and then, and I’ll be voting for whoever the nominee is in the general. I would simply rather it not be a candidate who either fails to understand the free market, or only pays lip service to supporting it.

  • jkines

    is just as bad if not worse than Paul’s non-interventionism. Where have all the realists gone? (other than to the editorial board of the National Interest?)

  • JSobieski

    nt

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    card. The devotion is in hanging out for 2-3 hours. Given the specific rules, Iowa is in fact an OPEN caucus state in any way that has meaning.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    because being allowed to register on the day of the event is quite meaningless in terms of “closed”. Just saying.

  • ihateliberals

    The breakdown of voters compared Tea Partiers to Republican’s. It has been my fear that the Tea party would makes is move away from the Republicans before the 2012 elections. If that were to happen Obama would be a two term disaster. I do believe that because the republican elite like Rove are shutting out the Tea party that in 2013 there will be a new party for conservatives and libertarians to be a part of. I know everyone just laughs at the idea but they did the same thing back in 1854 and yet it is now one of the largest political parties. Karl Rove, John Boehner, John McCain, Olympia Snowe and many many more RINO republicans are driving the conservatives to this break. I just hope that between 2013 and the 2016 elections the Conservative Party will emerge a true force in American politics. If Obama or Romney should win this election I feel certain this will happen should we still have a country then.

  • Scope

    That lists how it works in all of the states.

    Go to the chart which is down the page-

    Iowa- Closed- “Voters may change party on the day of the primary election.” I know it’s a caucus but they call it a primary.

    I’ll see if I can find the other sites where I read the same, that you can change party registration on the day of the caucus, at the caucus location.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    Hey, whatever it takes to rid the political world of Ron Paul.

  • Scope
  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Feel free to crawl off and take a nap.

  • constitutional1reset

    Particularly Rule #5.
    Sounds like the Neil Stevens might want to use those rules to kept the process from getting under his skin too much.
    Sal Alinsky style rhetoric hurts the nation and the GOP and the speaker because the behavior com plies with the directive of Vladimir Lenin “If you want to conquer a people first you must confound its language.” Take care Neil S. & Redstate.

    Rule #6 works strongly to remove the bait of false gain had by poisoning patriot dialog.

  • Addison

    You use ONE poll result in ONE year and ONE Caucus result to say that Ron Paul over-performs in Iowa CAUCUSES(Plural)?

    Also, the 9.93% number is for the entire state of Iowa. All the caucuses. Sorry for any confusion. “Iowa Caucus” is an acceptable, if less accurate, term for the statewide set of caucusus. I was referring to statewide poll data, and the link should have made my meaning clear. But I should have thought about people who would reply to my comment without going to the provided url.

  • jkines

    as opposed to addressing the fact that Wilsonianism is every bit as troubling as non-interventionism.. We need a national interest based realist approach to resurge within the party. Basing foreign policy off of idealist notions of global democracy is as dangerous as pollyanna isolationism.. A recent example of this is how our attempts to democratize Iraq have resulted in the ascendance of a regime far more sympathetic to Shiite Iran with the potential for finlandization growing by the day. It would have been far wise of us to utilize Sunni Iraq as a counterweight to Iranian resurgence.

    I reiterate, given that both foreign policies are equally misguided, I’ll take the guy committed to laissez-faire capitalism. over quasi-statist mixed economy advocates who merely pay lip service to it.

  • http://www.examiner.com/x-1597-Charlotte-Law--Politics-Examiner Mike gamecock DeVine

    smile

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ..

  • truthsquad

    So let me get this right: He Who Must Not Be Named has the support to win according to poll numbers… but his supporters won’t show up on caucus night?

  • texashistorian

    as I understand it, the Hawkeye Caucii are open to registered Republicans only, and a vast chunk of Paul’s supporters are not registered Republicans and will not be able to vote.

  • Scope

    “NH has a bit of a bias against candidates that are seen as more “SOUTHERN” social conservatives.” Bingo retire05. This is exactly what I said Perry’s problem is in NH, he is too socially conservative, and as you said he is too southern. Rick Perry’s federalism approach to governance is shouted down in the live free or die state, even though Perry wants the federal government to be as inconsequential in their lives as possible, because he proudly wears his own personal social convictions right there on his sleeve, or maybe pasted to his cowboy hat, to please the voters in NH.

    Perry would be very unwise to spend a dime of his campaign dollars, or a minute of his time in NH.

  • expanding_man

    If you have the inclination, you can read some of the prior comments that discus Iowa’s “closed” caucus rules. I would submit that they are not so “closed” in actuality.

  • texashistorian

    Still, I think it is safe to say that Paul will not get the votes in Iowa that polls would indicate, even if some do cast ballots for him. Look, he did worse in 08 than his poll numbers suggested, and I can’t see what’s really different now. His folks are a dedicated lot, I’ll give them that, but I don’t see how he gets the nomination, or even wins a state. And no, I don’t hate the man- I think he’s brilliant on some things, right on others, but utterly wrong on foreign policy. I am also not a Neo-Con, but he goes too far.

  • arthurjake

    If the federal government does not want to deport them he should pardon them and bus them to the people who think it is a good idea for to Texas to pay. I am sure when you start dropping off thousands of criminals in front of the White House things would change a bit. It would be a good publicity stunt anyway.

  • btpull

    The polls that have Paul in second are based on Iowa voters who are planning to vote in the Republican caucus.

  • awkingsley

    If you read the articles, Ron Paul submits earmarks, but doesn’t vote for them, and as verified in the other article he is not a 9-11 truther. This is a smear campaign against Ron Paul. If this is all of the dirt that you can dig up on Ron Paul, which is none, then he is our next president. Portraying Paul as a Gnostic is really low. He provides better and more concrete support for morality than any other candidate via returning moral issues to state’s rights. The states that embrace righteousness via anti-socialism will be prosperous pleasant places to reside and raise a family. The states that do not embrace God and capitalism will be the laughing stock.

  • californiagold

    Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire allows indies to vote in the republican primary. If Ron Paul gives a strong showing in Iowa, that momentum could propel him to do well in New Hampshire.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So that’s an entirely different matter.

  • gekster

    I hate earmarks, but since your passing them out anyway, where’s mine”.
    What bill/s had RP proposed to eliminate earmarks.

    And tell me what is moral about legalised prostitution.

    Take the blinders off dude, you will see better with out them.