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Ron Paul is the new Howard Dean

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  December 19th, 2011 at 01:00 PM  | 

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Howard Dean

Remember 2004? Insurgent Democrat Howard Dean uses a rash of young people online to raise surprising sums of money and gather incredible “buzz” for his candidacy. And yet he drops to third in Iowa, then second in New Hampshire. He would not go on to California, and Texas, and New York, nor would he take the White House.

Now between the PPP poll I covered earlier, and Insider Advantage, It’s Ron Paul in the Howard Dean spot. He only wins if the youth show up.

The facts: Unknown number of likely caucus goers (note that Insider Advantage calls it a ‘Primary’), unknown MoE, unknown handling of mobile phone users or even if it was a telephone poll. So, we have no facts, actually, do we?

The key: The poll projects 33% of the caucus goers to be ages 45-64 and 26% to be 65 and up. According to the CNN entrance polls, those numbers were actually 46% and 27%. InsiderAdvantage seems to join PPP in predicting an unprecedented surge of young independents.

Ron Paul is now Howard Dean. If the youth show up, he wins. If they don’t, all he’s left with is a bat and a mailing list.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    That’s an even more absurd partisan breakdown than the PPP poll’s.

  • izoneguy

    is more reasonable than Ron Paul….

  • clintonformccain

    Ron Paul versus Dennis Kuchinich. And, honestly, I’m so digusted with both political parties, I’d like to see it just to, once and for all, blow the whole thing up.

  • origami

    But your comparison is far to insulting to Howard Dean.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • expanding_man

    The poll results show less then 65% of the caucus voters will be Republicans. That’s not plausible. Doesn’t mean Paul won’t win Iowa. You just can’t use this poll as a means of predicting anything. I’d like to see a couple of more polls this week to see what they say.

    No doubt if the youth show up Paul wins. However, due to the timing of the caucuses (Jan. 3) is is possible that the young folks will be too busy enjoying their time off from college, etc. and won’t actually show up. Time will tell.

  • http://www.redstateeclectic.com enrique

    So we just need to find a way to get Paul to scream like Howard Dean.

    Consider that an open thread.

  • Menlo

    If he were to be elected, Ron Paul would be over 80 after his first term.

    I would hate to think such a vote would give us President Kucinich.

  • Paul_Zummo

    At the time of the 2004 election I did research for a campaign finance research institute and worked on the database of all 2004 presidential donors. Doing the entry for Democrat candidates it would be: Dean, Dean, Clark, Dean, Kucinich, Dean, Dean, Kerry, Dean, Clark, Dean, Clark, Lieberman, etc. In other words, he was certainly the candidate raking in the most money, followed by Clark. Paul is like Kucinich: lots of small donations, but really not much in the aggregate.

    Really, at this time in 2003 I was all but certain that Dean would win the nomination. Paul might win Iowa, but he’s not a serious player for the nomination.

    Or at least I would like to think so.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    ..

  • MNConservative

    http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?&w=400&h=220&o=f&c=1&y=r&b=ffffff&n=666666&r=2y&u=dailypaul.com&&u=redstate.com&

    DailyPaul vs RedState

  • lightspeed

    Ron Paul is far more dangerous to the Republican Party than Mitt Romney. He is a racist, anti-Semitic, 911 truther loon. He is the darling of the Alex Jones crowd as well as the white supremecists. Republicans of all stripes should be repudiating this man and exposing his background and supporters. Enough is enough. Stop giving him a free ride because “he can’t win, so let’s ignore him.” His very presence in the field of candidates is a cancer and he needs to be cut out.

  • streetwise

    sorry, a moment of nostalgia. or maybe trauma

  • tomatin

    Ron Paul will win which will show the whole IA caucus is a shame and that us conservatives don’t want Romney. Of course Romney will win NH and then the real GOP primaries begin in SC.

  • tomatin

    nt ntntnt

  • http://www.redstateeclectic.com enrique

    Just a bit more I believe.

    I doubt people from Australia, New Zealand, or Djibouti ever visit RedState to follow their one candidate. Different types of websites.

  • tailfins1959

    I don’t share your strong opinion on the topic, but welcome more info. You almost sound like Paul wouldn’t even be an improvement over Obama.

  • rightinthemiddle
    He hasn’t changed his stance on any of the issues. Just like Pres. Reagan, he has managed to communicate better this time. I am happy that people are listening.

    With the war-drum of neo-conservatives already beating louder with war on Iran, I am happy to see that he can talk some sense into people.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    …

  • jaykali

    Ron Paul / Howard Dean 2012 ticket would lead the polls in ‘crazy’. Iowans like to be ‘outside the box’ so if Paul wins I dont really care. I am just hoping we can elect somebody who can be competent.

  • texanlady

    Paul thinks it was wrong to kill Osama. He is the darling of the Cindy Sheehan crowd. I think they show up. Howard Dean is much better than Paul. Paul is a radical and that is what these people like. The same thing won’t happen in South Carolina and Florida unless Paul gains momentum.

  • Glaucon

    If Ron Paul were to somehow come out on top in the GOP, would he possibly consider Jim DeMint as a running mate? That might balance out the foreign policy, and at the same time double up on fiscal conservatism. Just a wacky thought… ;)

  • texanlady

    Kucinich said he would pick Paul as his vp not Howard dean. There you go.

  • texanlady

    Paul seems to be against a national defense so maybe he is worse than Obama. And he is anti-Israel. I could never vote for him.

  • bdirks

    If Ron Paul somehow prevailed in the primary process, there would be a brokered convention and another nominee would be selected. The stoned slackers who comprise Paul’s base would wail on the ground and cry like the brainwashed mourners in North Korea right now, but it wouldn’t matter.

    DeMint would never in a million years consider running with Ron Paul. It would flush his legacy and his credibility down the toilet.

    And “doubling up” on fiscal conservatism? Tell me why Ron Paul’s position on earmarks doesn’t make him a hypocrite, a fraud, and a liar on fiscal issues.

  • Glaucon

    Would Ron Paul step aside and support a Jim DeMint/Rand Paul or Jim DeMint/Mike Lee ticket?

  • bdirks

    He doesn’t care about anyone but himself and his narrow point of view. And while he is a little more pragmatic (running statewide will do that) about unilateral disarmament, deconstruction of our military, and Nevil Chamberlain appeasement to people who want to kill us, his son is in many ways just as wacky as he is.

  • TSquared

    …Paul has finished serving his purpose. Once Paul takes out the Not Romeny’s in Iowa and set up Romney for running the table, the Establishment’s long knives will come out for Paul (9/11 truther, Ron Paul Newsletter,etc.).

    I’ve tried to tell folks – If not Newt, it will be Romney. None of the others can stop him.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    His supporters are mostly anti-military college kids, antisemites and people who just generally don’t have a clue about the real world or monetary policy.

    With respect to “v Obama”, his foreign policy would absolutely be worse and might even put us in a “real” war. His domestic policy would be a joke. He’d have no coattails and absolutely no support in the Congress for anything. The jerk has been a congressman for 20+ years and hasn’t managed to make one alliance on any of his his hot-button points. He’d attempt to gut military spending – with the help of the Democrats – and wouldn’t get 10 votes on anything. Congress would pass a veto proof budget and Paul would blame it on the Jews.

  • Glaucon

    That putting Rand on the ticket in a brokered convention might be the only thing that could create a “Tea Party” coalition that could unite more people, and that his old man would actively support. A Rick Perry/Rand Paul ticket perhaps? Unfortunately, this is just fantasy, as a brokered convention will probably result in Mitt Romney paired with someone hand-picked by Mitch McConnell and friends.

  • bdirks

    We don’t need to do anything to placate Ron Paul or his acolytes. His support is an inch wide and a mile deep, and his diehards are unswayable and therefore completely irrelevant in a general election. This is what? His 3rd try for the presidency? If he hasn’t pulled off a Ross Perot yet, he never will.

  • bdirks

    A brokered convention won’t give us Mitt. It will give us Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, or anyone else who would make an exceptional leader but didn’t want to put themselves and their families through the proverbial cheese grater of a modern presidential campaign.

  • tailfins1959

    He essentially said Ron Paul is being used like a bowling pin: Set up to be easily knocked down. Morris compared it to the the 1988 Dem primary where Jesse Jackson served the same purpose.

    I’m only comparing the election dynamics of Jackson versus Paul lest I be mean-spirited.

  • Glaucon

    …but you could get some. You’ll never get the Rothbard disciples, but you can get the fiscal conservatives. Nice to add that kind of enthusiasm to a coalition.

    Mike Lee is an interesting option. That could bring a Mormon constituency, and would be a much better option than Mitt. I have no idea how wide or deep the Mormon vote is, but I am assuming it’s very close to Romney’s numbers.

  • Glaucon

    “didn?t want to put themselves and their families through the proverbial cheese grater of a modern presidential campaign”

    Just reading that made me cringe!

  • milesquarenj

    one of the crazy conspiracy theorists you claim to object to. What is dangerous to the Republican Party and countrty are the interventionist policies of “big government conservatives” that proved so unpopular with the country it gave us an Obama supermajority which resullted in a brand new entitlement we will never be able to get rid of.

  • tomatin

    Are imbibing in all the drugs Paul would legalize to come up with that conclusion.

  • origami

    If Ron Paul gets a decent amount of delegates he might become the cooky old crone who decides who gets the GOP nomination. If conservatives don’t start rallying around a Trustworthy and REAL conservative we’re going to cripple ourselves before Obama spends any of his billion dollar warchest.

  • drothgery

    .

  • lightspeed

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/11/the_ron_paul_campaign_and_its.html

    This is only the tip of the iceberg. Google “Ron Paul racist newsletters” and “Ron Paul Alex Jones.” Jones is a full-blown truther and conspiracy theorist and Paul has a close association with him. Leon Wolf posted this recently:

    http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2011/12/10/ron-paul-goes-full-metal-truther/

  • lightspeed

    Paul is siphoning off a good bit of “not Romney” vote from people who don’t know that much about him. Someone needs to get the word out in Iowa, as a Paul win would be an emabrassment. Might as well vote for David Duke or Lyndon LaRouche.

  • lightspeed

    His history speaks for itself. Opinions of blacks and Jews published in his newsletters under his name are reprehensible. Educate youself on the man’s history and associations.

  • http://www.rightreality.wordpress.com andysmith

    not just an insult, but keep reading.
    The only poll that concerns me is Rasmussen showing Obama in a SINGLE digit deficit in favorable/unfavorable. Maybe it’s from solidifying his liberal base more than making inroads with moderates and independents, but I’m amazed it’s happening nonetheless.
    At any rate, Paul is going to be a legit candidate now. The media will prop him up to keep him in the race as long as possible to bloody up whoever the eventual GOP nominee is going to be. He’ll get more media coverage, his similar views with Obama on foreign policy, defense, and border security will be looked at as sensible, and you won’t ever see a negative story on him in the MSM.
    I don’t really buy any of the Iowa polls because it’s kind of a volatile state that I believe is more populist than conservative/liberal, but if he finishes in the top three, expect him to get all the love that Huntsman gets as the “reasonable Republican.”

  • http://www.rightreality.wordpress.com andysmith

    not just an insult, but keep reading.
    The only poll that concerns me is Rasmussen showing Obama in a SINGLE digit deficit in favorable/unfavorable. Maybe it’s from solidifying his liberal base more than making inroads with moderates and independents, but I’m amazed it’s happening nonetheless.
    At any rate, Paul is going to be a legit candidate now. The media will prop him up to keep him in the race as long as possible to bloody up whoever the eventual GOP nominee is going to be. He’ll get more media coverage, his similar views with Obama on foreign policy, defense, and border security will be looked at as sensible, and you won’t ever see a negative story on him in the MSM.
    I don’t really buy any of the Iowa polls because it’s kind of a volatile state that I believe is more populist than conservative/liberal, but if he finishes in the top three, expect him to get all the love that Huntsman gets as the “reasonable Republican.”

  • btpull

    Look at the actual numbers in the Insider Advantage Poll

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_IA_1218.pdf

    Paul has the highest support amongst the candidates in the 30-44 age group at 29.5% and in the 45-64 age group at 22%. Romney leads the 65+ group at 28%. An older turn-out (45+) would seem to favor Romney.

    Paul has the highest support amongst the Republicans in general at 21.9% with Romney in second with 19.7%. Perry’s highest support is in the 18 – 29 age group at 18.6%.

    I, honestly, do not expect much objectivity from RS for the non-Perry candidates. You do not have to BS with statistics, however.

  • libertardo

    My $20.12 donation was one of thousands that raised $4M this weekend for Dr. Paul. Paul looks likely to win Iowa, and I think that will be a good thing for the race and for the national dialogue. And Dr. Paul has proven his orthodoxy on healthcare policy and vowed to work toward repeal of Obamacare. Perhaps his rise in prominence could translate into an Health and Human Services secretary posting?

  • heraklios

    but I hope he never becomes President

  • californiagold

    Having said that, I don’t think RP will win Iowa. Neil Stevens has explained why in previous threads – Iowa is a closed state, whereas New Hampshire and 16 other states are open primaries.

    One thing I do expect is for Ron Paul to hang around long enough to be one of the last “anti-Romneys” still in the race. I could also see a scenario where the republican party starts getting worried about RP running as an independent in the general.

  • Dave_A

    Both advocate a ‘post-American’ world & the dismantlement of the USA….

    Obama would bankrupt us with spending, and has greatly damaged our standing in international affairs…

    Paul would destroy our currency & bankrupt us with deflation, and would destroy our standing in international affairs by abandoning all of our allies (not just Israel).

    It’s a potay-to, potah-to choice…. Still get mashed & served either way….

  • Dave_A

    Even most registered Republicans don’t bother to go to those…

    The only way we get those numbers, is if Paul’s ‘Democrats for Paul’ types go to the caucus en-masse…

    Ron is the one man most likely to draw ‘cross-party’ primary voters, trying to set up a D vs D election….

  • Dave_A

    Are BSing with the stats to generate those numbers, by including too many independents & Democrats in what is normally a party-faithful-only contest….

    The GOP faithful won’t vote for Paul in the Caucus OR the General… Even against Obama… It will be a ‘stay home’ year if he somehow manages to get the nomination….

  • milesquarenj

    It is old news. He was very sloppy in his oversight of the newsletter and lot of stuff got in there he said he finds repugnant. Not his finest moment by any stretch but i not think the man is a racist.

  • Dave_A

    Lead to Pearl Harbor, and in some ways 9/11….

    Weakness invites attack.

    And isolationism (er ‘non-interventionisim’) is weakness.

  • californiagold

    Regarding the killing of OBL, RP wanted him captured and put in front of a court…which is more or less the same view that Bill Clinton held while he was president. Whether one agrees or disagrees with that view, the reality is, it’s a view that isn’t as far out of the mainstream as you suggest.

    As for Howard Dean, that guy is about as close to a socialist as one can get on domestic policy.

  • Dave_A

    to leave the race in 08…

    He even tried to stack state conventions with faithless delegates, in order to defy the will of the people…

    I would expect that Ron will do the same this time…

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    I let Neil do the heavy lifting on polls these days, but when the overall poll’s demographics are this badly skewed you can’t really expect to get good data from the sub-categories, either.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    If there are systematic issues with a poll, then the crosstabs are going to be just as bad, only with a higher MoE.

    Nobody said polling caucuses was easy.

  • http://www.liberty-freedom.org victor_cocchia

    That you can register that day, when you walk up to the Caucus, so it is exactly the same as an open caucus. Democrats and anti-troop independents will come in droves and vote for Paul. They know that this is the only state he can win, and by giving him this win they keep him relevant, and give his followers a talking point for the rest of the primary. They can then say that every other primary he loses will be fixed. It also does something worse for us. It gives the media six weeks of talking points about how Ron Paul is changing the Republican party and how it is rejecting the Tea Party (because Ron Paul is no Tea Party guy at all). It helps them demonize us, because Paul is absolutely a racist, and he is absolutely an anti-semite, as are his followers.

    That said, they are all in, in Iowa. They have sent TONS of volunteers from all over the country, they will be in every single caucus intimidating voters into voting for Ron Paul because that is what they do., They insult and manipulate and shame and berate and belittle and outshout people making them feel uncomfortable. Do not discount a win there, and God help us if he does.

  • californiagold

    It’s one thing to oppose a candidate based on their political views, but is it useful to use the “R” word as an attack ? When Pat Buchanan challenged Bush many years ago, similar charges were made against Buchanan in an effort to destroy his character. Now some are using the same attack methods on RP. RP has already responded by saying the newsletters in question were written by ghostwriters many years ago and he didn’t support such statements.

    And by the way, I’m a supporter of Rick Perry, and when others attacked Perry using the race card, I thought those attacks were below the belt. There’s enough real racism in the world, political candidates shouldn’t manufacture it to score cheap political points against their opponents.

  • californiagold

    It was reported by MSNBC that one of the paid polls in New Hampshire ( I forget which) actually included Jeb Bush’s name in the poll. Hmmm….

    At this point, why would anyone pay for a poll that included Jeb’s name unless there was a specific reason for doing so ?

    It could be that in the unlikely event that the convention were brokered, Jeb Bush would be one of the names given serious consideration. Had it not been for the pitiful state his brother left the country in, Jeb Bush would have been the odds on favorite in 2012.

  • http://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress.com nathanalbright

    …our nation and world are in a heap of trouble. More than we are already.

  • milesquarenj

    That’s like a 30% position in the general election. The public is sick of all these wars whether you want to recognize it or not. Interventionism gave us electoral disaster and Obamacare. How is that good for the party or country for that matter? The neocons who want war with Iran are the dangerous ones for the party.

  • williamjameson

    -nt-

  • Dave_A

    Popular or not.

    Showing weakness to our enemies, by giving in to our demands whenever they direct violence or unpleasant words our way, is NOT the right thing to do…

    And that’s what Ron advocates, as a solution to our troubles in the M.E.

    Besides, a 30% position is still a majority (or, by the most optimistic calculations, about an even split) of right-leaning voters…

    I could care less what Democrats think about GOP foreign policy… We’ll do the right thing, they’ll continue to pontificate about moral relativism and the merits of appeasing monsters…

    And we’ll still win, this time anyway…

    BTW, it wasn’t Iraq that got Obama in, it was the housing market situation/economy…

    Yeah, stupid of the voters to elect a Democrat because of a Democrat-caused economic problem, but the average American doesn’t know enough to blame Carter and Clinton instead of W Bush.

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