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I was right and the polls were wrong about Ron Paul in Iowa

Santorum Romney

According to CNN, both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are set to win 6 delegates thanks to their close 1-2 finish in the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul fell to third place. He didn’t win, and he fell further and further behind as the votes were counted last night.

Not one poll projected Ron Paul to drop to third, and PPP stuck to Paul being in first. I said those polls weren’t predictive. They weren’t. I was right.

I went out on the limb. It would have been easy to hedge when every poll out there disagreed with me, but I didn’t. Even when I got a wave of critical commenters via Drudge Report and the Atlantic, most telling me I was completely wrong, and that there in fact would be a surge of voters, I stuck to my guns. I denied there would be a big surge from the record 2008 turnout, and in fact turnout was at about 120,000, roughly the same as the 119,118 of last time. I kept saying it even on caucus day.

The results? PPP projected Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18. Opposite order. Wrong. I said I “debunked” PPP, and the polls were indeed bunk.

InsiderAdvantage. Des Moines Register. Rasmussen Reports. NBS News/Marist. CNN/Time. Every one of them had Ron Paul in second place, down by only 1, 2, 1, 2, and 3 respectively. This was consensus in the turnout models, which I rejected to the end.

The final result was Mitt Romney 25%, Rick Santorum 25%, and Ron Paul 21%. Not one pollster had Paul in third, four off the lead. They had him +1, -1, -1, -2, -2, and -3, in first or second place. This was a total poll failure, and I took a lot of heat for saying they were all wrong.

But I called it. Was I sweating every minute Tuesday evening when the early counts had Paul ahead? Of course I was. But, in the end, there was no massive, unprecedented influx of independents and Democrats backing Ron Paul. There was no turnout doubling 2008′s record turnout. Ron Paul lost, and he finished in third.

If this happened by random chance, one would have thought at least one pollster would have had Santorum in second. At least one of the errors should have had Ron Paul with an even bigger deficit than four. No, if they were random errors, they had a 50/50 chance of being larger or smaller than the actual deficit. For six polls to all go the same way had only a 1.5% chance of occurring. Even worse when you consider IA and PPP had Paul tied or in the lead in previous polls as well. Eight polls all with a smaller deficit only happens by chance 0.4% of the time.

This wasn’t random. The polling of Iowa was systemically wrong. Polling is a useful science, but caveat (e)lector. Do sanity checks. Then you won’t be part of the herd running off the cliff, as happened with Iowa polling this year.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

COMMENTS

  • buddyp

    Neil,

    I know you said with certainty that Paul would not win, but what was your overall prediction for 1, 2, and 3?

    Did you predict Paul would be lower than # 2 ?

    What did you predict for Santorum?

    Please provide link(s). I did a quick check of a couple of your most recent diary posts but didn’t find the above, other than just “anything is possible” other than Paul not winning.

    Do you have a NH prediction, or is it too early for that?

    thanks

  • Marcus_Traianus

    “Was I sweating every minute Tuesday evening when the early counts had Paul ahead?”

    Why sweat? You were logical and non-partisan, which is what polls are supposed to be.

    Instead, more often than not, they have unfortunately become the dominion of politicized witchcraft, covered with concocted sampling and other mischief.

    The people behind some of these polls either have an interest as promoting kooky Ron Paul as some type of representative standard bearer (to our detriment) or have been fooled by his Jim-Jones-like cult following. Either way, they suck at this polling stuff. You? Maybe your own firm is in the future?

  • bk

    Could some of them used sampling that propped up Paul’s numbers intentionally? Or will they all just say ‘It was a KnownFact that there would be a huge chaos/crossover vote, and our sampling rightfully reflected that whether or not it turned out that way in the end.”

  • TopGun

    how Iowa ends up picking the two top people who have not had a real job in years in the public or private sector, but they are the Einsteins who have the answers.

    The polling was just as much of a joke.

    They might as well have chosen the doctor as their pick. It would have added more laughter for the total lack of DD they performed in selecting a candidate with an actual real, and “current”, history of success, instead of two who have been sitting on the sidelines, so they wouldn’t have to add any additional “mistakes” to their resumes.

    Why wasn’t Mitt, with all of his money, out building another business / creating JOBS, if he is supposed to be the super duper private sector entrepreneur over the last, what, four years?

  • David_Sadler

    Neil, Will Ron Paul now run 3rd party? If not, will his supporters vote against their principles or write Ron Paul’s name in during the general election? Has Ron Paul’s rejection by the Republican Party and conservative media alienated his supporters forever? Paraphrasing Buchanan, “Has the Republican Party left the Ron Paul supporters?”

  • btpull

    Paul’s message is basically the same message the Libertarian Party has been conveying for years. The danger to the Republican Party is that Paul’s 10% – 15% National support (assuming he not the nominee) will turn to the LP making the LP candidate (if he or she is credible) the Ross Perot of 2012

  • williamjameson

    considering RP is the Rod Serling of candidates.

    This RP video says it all, “What if China had bases in Texas” A total KooK!!! RP says those who elected him know him pretty well…………not on a national level.

    http://www.westernjournalism.com/is-ron-pauls-what-if-china-had-bases-in-texas-ad-dangerously-misleading/?utm_source=Western+Journalism&utm_campaign=56b04c1d6b-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    What does that mean in terms of who or what party wins the general election?

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    The Ron Paul bashing is now over along with his Republican candidacy. So please concentrate on the fallout and how the general election will now go with or without RP’s support for the GOP nominee, whoever that might be. Please offer items of substance rather than name calling.

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    What if RP runs as the LP candidate? How does that affect the race for the WH? Who will win that one, Neil?

  • thirstyboots

    Not only they captured Santorum’s surge – to the point that Tom Jensen from PPP and Selzer even said they wouldn’t be surprised to see Santorum winning because he was ahead in the last days of their polls – they were spot on about Paul’s voting percentage.

    You can’t call polls bunk when the results are within the margin of error and they even captured the trends.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    And if Paul runs 3rd Party, he get the same 1% of stoners who only show up to vote for him and if he’s not on the ballot they don’t show.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    And so are his “followers”.

    It’s important to stress that because you can bet the media will tie him and his troofer/birfer bonafides along with Alex Jones, etal to the Republican Party.

    Kooks like Paul and David Duke must be ostracized at any and every opportunity. “Vote for the crook, it’s that important”.

  • romansdaughter

    nt

  • thirstyboots

    The idea that they’re all racist, truthers and potheads is just flat out crazy. Crazier than Alex Jones crazy. That was true 20 years ago. It was half-true 4 years ago. Now? Not so much.

    So the GOP candidate will have to listen to those voters and court them. Sit down with the Reason Magazine editorial staff. With the American Conservative Magazine editorial staff. Assume the compromise of auditing the Fed. Send surrogates to attend the Young Americans for Liberty convention.

    There are lots of people in the GOP who don’t necessarily agree with Ron Paul’s extreme views on foreign policy but that are even more uncomfortable with the levels of spending on the military and foreign aid. People who don’t like the federal government getting involved in issues like gambling or drugs. They’re a fairly large number and they can’t be ignored if the GOP pretends to keep winning national elections.

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    Sounds like you’ve got it all figured out. Ron Paul and his followers are kooks and are not needed for the general election for a GOP win. Thanks for the input.

  • lightspeed

    Is that the Looney Party?

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    And, both he and they are a big net minus to the Party.

  • lightspeed

    Are mostly non-Republicans who wouldn’t vote Republican anyway. Many don’t vote. Not all of his followers are kooks. He has managed to fool a great many people into thinking he is an acceptable candidate. He is not, and we need to wake these people up to the vile nature of his character.

    By the way, nice Ron Paul-promoting website you got there.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Why would we care what a bunch of stoners, racists and anti-Semites who support Paul’s loony and dangerous foreign policy because they’re anti-military think.

    Paul isn’t a Libertarian any more than he’s a Republican. Gary Johnson will run as the Libertarian candidate and he’s actually accomplished and sane.

    Paul should be barred from the convention.

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    A key principle of the Ron Paul camp is personal accountability for ones actions. One should be free to engage in liberty but should also be accountable for the natural – not legal – repercussions of those behaviors. Applying this to the GOP, it made it’s bed with its wild characterizations of Paul and his supporters. Now it must live with the consequences of a movement that still has its eyes on principles and policies supporting those principles. Several comments already show the attitude of big government telling people what to do and think. It’s no wonder former members are looking for a classic Republican alternative. It’s my prediction that the GOP will not win the support of enough Paul supporters to win the general. Basically, it will be more of the same.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Please take the comments I’ve made about Ron Paul and his supporters personally.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    are those that don’t include the terms “loon”, “racist”, “anti-Semite”, “troofer/birfter” and “fruit bat”.

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    Most likely. There are crazy, irrational, uninformed and unprincipled people in all of the parties. If this was not true, we wouldn’t be in the mess we’re in. Right?

  • SoFiMil

    Time and resources likely aren’t worth trying to placate he and his supporters through November 2012.

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    “Be respectful, or be banned.”

  • lightspeed

    that will be one less crazy, irrational, uninformed and unprincipled person in the GOP, and good riddance.

  • http://www.baseballcrank.com Dan McLaughlin

    I do think PPP may have been deliberately push-polling the Paul support up.

  • Bill S

    …was that he forgot the terms “nutball” and “crackpot”

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    of the GOP that lost to, of all people, Obama in 2008. Great strategy. Will you employ it again in 2012?

  • http://www.david-sadler.org David_Sadler

    but I appreciate the nod. It’s not really about Ron Paul who is retiring. It’s about limited constitutional government, balanced budgets and old ideas like that.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    If you actually believed that you wouldn’t let Ron Paul skate free on his newsletters. You’re hold him accountable for the racist and anti-semetic statements in them.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    Ron Paul supporters in general, that is.

  • barron44

    Why are we pretending that the nomination for the Republican candidate to oppose Barrack Hussein Obama has not been decided and months and months of fighting for that nomination are forthcoming? Iowa has spoken. The winner is Mitt Romney. The only lightweights left standing to oppose the Governor are an anti-Romney candidate, with no credible resources, and a candidate who has no chance of winning the general election. So, where is the drama? Why are we pretending?

  • thirstyboots

    Because you’re wrong in assessing his electorate. There are plenty of people who aren’t racists/stoners/anti-Semites/anti-military and still support Paul. There aren’t that many crazies in the real world.

    This isn’t about Paul, it’s about a segment of the conservative movement that is willing to support Paul over the rest of the field and not because of his flaws, like the anti-Israel stances.

    The GOP candidate will probably need a percentage of those voters to win, so there’s no need to antagonize them. I’ve already explained the correct course of action – that doesn’t involve any kind of support or leniency for Paul’s loony views – and, to the dismay of those who think like you, I strongly suspect the nominee will actually court those voters.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    … because I knew I couldn’t trust the polls entirely :)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But for the most part I think caucuses are just hard to poll in the traditional way.

  • thirstyboots

    But yeah, it’s been over since the moment Christie decided to not enter the race.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Caucuses are weird.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Ron Paul ran third party before, and the racist lunatic wasn’t even a blip.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It’s not a vague gray band where all results are equally probable.

    in fact if you actually read my post, I discredited that by pointing out every single result was on the same side. If this were random error, per the MoE, half the results should have had Ron Paul losing by MORE than he actually did.

  • znjs

    That the Real Clear Politics average was pretty close – they said Paul would get 21.5 and he got 21.4. Other than Santorum, who surged late, everyone was within 2 percentage points of what they ended up getting.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Ron Paul supporters fall into groups. There are a group of people who vote for him in a primary out of frustration with the national party, a fairly sizable group. Come general election they vote Republican.

    There’s a group of people who actually buy into Paul’s lunacy. They won’t vote Republican no matter what, never have and never will.

    There are Democrat anti-war kooks – who likely made up a sizable portion of last night’s Paul vote in Iowa – who will vote for the Democrat, period.

    And then there are a few people who are simply ignorant and vote for the nice old man because of his nice sounding stuff on fiscal responsibility. For those folks, and they’re the smallest group, it’s important that they know Ron Paul for who and what he is. In single syllable words. If they learn the lesson, they vote Republican, if they don’t they were never “with us” anyway.

    The Republican Party, and especially the conservatives in the party need to drive a big stake through the political heart of this old loon and his movement. In no uncertain terms, and quickly. Ron Paul is the David Duke of this decade. The party needs to exclude him from the convention.

    We’ll get the sane Ron Paul voters. And, FYI, in 1988 I had a deep distrust of GHWB. I didn’t believe pretty much anything he said. I also had recently lived in MA under MikieD’s governorship and I knew he was a fruit cake. When I walked into the voting booth on election night, I voted for Ron Paul because I knew Bush would win in a huge landslide and I had the ability to cast a vote against Bush knowing that he would destroy Mikie. I had no use for Paul then and my opinion of him has just deteriorated since.

    Courting racists and anti-Semites is a sure way to lose an election in 2012.

  • thirstyboots

    Not really sure what you’re trying to say, but pollsters nailed Ron Paul’s results: PPP had him at 20%, he got 21%. Selzer had him at 22%. Rasmussen too. It’s quite impressive actually. Excellent job by the pollsters.

    They “underestimated” Santorum’s result but that’s not really a fair accusation as they captured his momentum – as I said, they even speculated they could win. But it’s always impossible to fully poll late deciders – only to try to capture where they’re going and, once again, pollsters did very well in that regards.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    I promise it won’t happen again.

  • A_Texan

    And perhaps some common sense should have told us that Ron Paul is not someone to sway people who are late deciders, nor someone who was gonna lose supporters.

    Some went to Romney (1.8 points), a big bunch went to Santorum–and nobody else improved their standing.

    Confession: I didn’t get it, and thought Paul might come in first.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    the destruction of Israel by Iran, the idea that the Bush Administration was involved in 911, and a monetary policy that put the world into recession and depression numerous times. Not to mention hypocrisy of the first order on budgeting issues and earmarking.

    I wouldn’t spit (or anything else) on you or Paul if you were on fire. In fact, if was raining, I’d buy an umbrella.

  • jakeofalltrades

    lol

  • tailfins1959

    If you infuriate enough of his supporters, they could coalesce to show Paul that he has “boots on the ground” to support a third party run. In general stepping on people doesn’t yield good results. I will just say that Paul as president would increase our chances of a terrorist attack and leave it at that. There’s no need to go any further than that. We can ignore Paul at this point. He is at most entertainment.

    I work hard not to infuriate people. RedState helps me sharpen those skills :-) .

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But read the post again.

  • renl57

    Paul’s support from Dems and Independents comes from his stands on foreign policy.

    A liberal Dem can’t abide Paul’s fiscal conservatism.

    But you would be surprised how many liberal bloggers admire Paul for his willingness to retreat from all our foreign commitments. To them, Paul is equivalent to Kucinich–a peacenik candidate and they love that stuff.

  • texastaxpayer

    the republican nomination. Good to know. This will certainly help all those cash strapped states out there as they no longer have to hold primaries. Win Win…..

  • Locked and Loaded

    Unfortunately, I have had the painful experience of having a family member become engrossed in the Paul lunacy, mostly due to “monetary policy.” This young adult (eye-roll) has been bailed out (not from jail, thank heavens) repeatedly now by family members, including me and my wife. He is on his own again, hopefully to now finally exercise a sufficient level of personal responsibility.

    If, at the most unoffensive level of his Paulness, I was to have served him with the natural repercussions of his behavior, during one of his steamroller Paulistine monetary rants, I would have interrupted his diatribe by screaming, “Shut up!” He has no regard for his listener when teeing up some Pauliquette, in much the same way he refuses to groom and dress for success. I have now placed all discussion of Pauline doctrine off limits.

    His estranged wife has shown even less regard for those around her, and she finds herself in the class that trails the Paul bandwagon; she loves the dope, but doesn’t have the intellectual capacity to coherently discuss any of the favored talking points.

    A public viewing of the zoo that is a Ron Paul gathering will reveal much of what I have described above. It truly is cult-like – and sad, to be sure – what I have observed in this member of my family. The best thing I can say about Paul acolytes is they are making terrible, short-sighted decisions.

  • Russ Martin

    HotAir’s got a post saying that Perry tweeted that he is on to South Carolina:

    https://twitter.com/#!/GovernorPerry/status/154596463995912193

  • buddyp

    So when you say “I was right and the polls were wrong about Ron Paul in Iowa” what do you mean?

    According to your post, only PPP had Paul at the top (and only by 1 point), and all the others you list had him in second.

    You didn’t predict he’d come in lower than second.

    You say that the others you list had Paul 1, 2, or 3 points behind the top spot, but you didn’t predict that he’d be further from the winner.

    So don’t you mean just that you were right in rejecting one poll (PPP) that had Paul in the lead (by one point) ?

    Also, as a note, polls aren’t meant as predictions, particularly not in caucuses. As the president of PPP put it on Sunday in a press release accompanying that poll:
    ?It?s impossible to say who?s going to win Tuesday night…If you think momentum will be the most important factor that?s an argument for Santorum. If you think having the most passionate supporters will be the most important factor that?s an argument for Paul. And if you think the ability to beat Barack Obama will be the most important factor that?s an argument for Romney.?
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_101914.pdf

  • Kyle-MI

    NT

  • mikeymike143

    mikeymike143 (Diary) Monday, January 2nd at 11:25PM EST (link)

    1. mitt romney

    2. rick santorum

    3. loon(ron paul)

    although i wouldnt be that surprised to see santorum and romney swiched around and santorum in first and romney in second.

  • Castor

    NUCLEAR 9/11 !!!!!!!!
    Not only did that nut job lose, but the other nut job in Iran said,” Curses ,foiled again.”

  • mikeymike143

    a total disgrace to the republican party. of course, he is not really a republican, he is an america hating leftist

  • crosley

    I’m happy with the final results, but to say “the polls were wrong” because Ron Paul didn’t win is quite a jump in logic.

    Paul ended up getting the nearly same exact percentage the polls said he would, the RCP average was 21.5%, he ended up receiving 21.4%. The polls didn’t capture the undecided voters that broke at the last minute to Santorum (they aren’t mind readers).

    The RCP average is especially accurate compared to the final results:
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

    To make a coin toss prediction “Ron Paul won’t win” and then to say that means the polls were all wrong is silly, especially since most polls said Paul was NOT going to win AND accurately forecasted his final vote number.

    Conservatives ignore polls at their own peril.

  • veto

    ?Here?s the deal,? Palin told Fox Business Network?s Neil Cavuto.

    ?The GOP would be so remiss to marginalize Ron Paul and his supporters as we come out of Iowa tonight and move down the road to New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. If we marginalize these supporters who have been touched by Ron Paul and what he believed in over these years, well, then, through a third party run of Ron Paul?s or the Democrats capturing those independents and these libertarians who supported what Ron Paul?s been talking about, well, then the GOP is going to lose. And then there will be no light at the end of the tunnel.?

    ?So, the worst thing that the GOP machine can do is marginalize Ron Paul and his supporters,? she added.

  • clowngirl

    (and I would expect many of those are libertarians who think it’s strategically useful to say that)

    I believe some of those polls that had Paul over 20% were polling only Republicans – if that’s the case, they were pretty far off.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I have a post up that explains and links to exactly what I predicted, and demonstrates with math that I was right. You can find it here.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    he won’t do better this time.

    Let’s certainly hope the Republican Party has left Ron Paul and his supporters, we don’t do racism and anti-Semitism amongst his other manifestations of lunacy.

  • buddyp

    I just wanted to better understand the extent to which your prediction really did vary from “the polls”. I think I asked a legitimate question, seeking reasonable clarification in a reasonably polite way. An answer would have been more considerate than your facetious non-answer, but I take it from the latter that my understanding is correct:

    When you say in your headline

    “I was right and the polls were wrong about Ron Paul in Iowa?

    all you really meant to say was

    “I was right that Paul wouldn’t win and one poll had Paul in first with a one-point lead.*

    Several others had Paul in second place, and you didn’t predict otherwise, and they had Paul in second by a lower margin than his actual margin vs. the winner, and you didn’t predict otherwise, so there’s no “right vs. wrong” there.

    If I’m missing something, please correct me. Otherwise, I guess that’s that. Again, I was just seeking clarification, because your headline didn’t seem to fit with your post and I wanted to know the extent to which your prediction varied from “the polls” (plural).

    * which wasn’t a prediction on their part, particularly given the nature of caucuses, as they indicated in accompanying press release.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I also said the massive turnout predictions were all wrong. They were.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    He doesn’t really have “boots on the ground”. He got 0.5% last time he ran he wouldn’t do any better this time. The people who supported him in Iowa were anti-war Democrats and stoned college students.

    Personally, I hope he does run a third party, it’ll take votes from Obama.

  • texasref

    good eye

  • truthsquad

    You wrote, “According to CNN, both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are set to win 6 delegates thanks to their close 1-2 finish in the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul fell to third place. He didn?t win, and he fell further and further behind as the votes were counted last night.”

    Except Paul might as well have won first or second place, as far as delegates go: he’s set to win 6 delegates, too (according to greenpapers.com – CNN says it’s 7 to each of the three).

    Iowa sure is strange. If Paul keeps this up, he’ll be all set for that brokered convention.

  • Charlie

    Neil clearly know little about which he writes.

  • urbanelephants

    Is it shows how little he knows about what happen in Iowa. The caucus vote is essentially another straw poll. Anyone who has ever been involved in presidential campaigns knows this. The real action happens after the vote takes place with the county delegates for the district and state convention are elected.

    Why is that where the action happens?

    Because unlike most states the Iowa delegates are not tied to the outcome of the caucus/vote. I know for a fact that Paul cleaned everyone’s clock in round two. Having done so he is position now to scoop up a majority of the delegates.

  • onenationundergod

    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/did-you-read-about-the-sly-move-the-ron-paul-camp-pulled-last-night/

    This happened at my site, and other changes that seemed odd, now I understand. He always said brokered convention….he meant it.

    I found a lot more info if you want it.
    I live in Iowa, not a Paul supporter…our votes were a straw poll NONBINDING…the delegates to the convention can vote for who they want, and they ARE ORGANIZED

  • tailfins1959

    I would love to see an a**hole logo using the Obama campaign letter o (or is that a zero?) icon.

  • Dave_A

    He did this in 2008, too – trying to hijack state conventions by getting his people nominated as delegaates for other candidates (betting that supporters of other candidates would not be as motivated to seek convention delegate positions, and thus he would be able to hijack the process).

    Fortunately, he failed then.

    And he will fail again.

    The party convention process is still controlled by the party, it is not a legal proceeding. State parties in ‘non-binding primary/caucus’ states can still say ‘No, we will NOT nominate Ron Paul, no matter how many people he snuck in the door’…

    If they have to, they will.

  • Dave_A

    Ron is an expert at ‘gaming’ non-scientific polls, simply because his supporters are so fanatical & generally always online – any call-in or click-in poll with Paul in it gets reported up to the online swarm, and they respond in numbers disproportionate to a legit sample.

    What the polling firms did here, was essentiallly hand him this sort of sample in call-out scientific polls, by over-representing independents and democrats.

    Now, that’s not to say that they did it with the intent of helping Paul – but somehow, someone convinced almost all of the major scientific polls that a huge number of young people & non-Republican voters would show up to a Republican caucus…

    Which makes me wonder where the pollsters are getting their sample-composition data…

    If any sort of online survey is involved, we have our culprit…

    I’m sure they’re all figuring out what they did wrong, and the methodology will be fixed to keep from using the wrong sample sizes again…

    After all, they’re paid to be right, and thus are probably quite steamed to be all wrong.

  • Dave_A

    Same goes for the Buchananites & other fringe groups…

    With the exception of isolationisim before WWII, it’s hard to find Ron’s views in the Republican party platform any time in recent history.

    Republicans were the ones who CREATED the Federal Reserve, for example…

    A Republican /(Nixon) finally ran a stake through the (extremely anti-capitalist) gold-peg in 1972.

    Reagan was the consumate interventionist, opposing the ‘live and let live’ policy of detente, and sending US troops to Grenada, bombing Lybia, and using the CIA (which Ron would ‘take out’) to fight proxy wars world-wide….

    Ron is a Democrat on every position except government spending…

  • Dave_A

    Will be intoxicated or stoned & more concerned with ‘voting’ for Pizza Hut or Dominoes than for President come November.

    They are a ‘force’ when it comes to spamming discussion forums (other than those, like this one, that boot them on sight) and stacking online/call-in polls….

    But actually voting is just another story…

    The same applies to the ‘Youth for Obama’ demographic that so many think the GOP needs to alter our positions to attract….

    They generally don’t vote…

    However, as they grow older & more sober, idealisim tends to give way to pragmatisim, and they eventually turn into Republicans about the age that voting for President becomes more important than which brand of pizza & beer to consume on election night…

  • Dave_A

    The committed ‘Freedom Movement’ types are unsalvagable – they won’t be happy until the Constitution is gone & the US is either broken up into individual states or turned back into a 1777-style confederacy.

    And the issues in question will cost us more in ‘core base’ support than they will ‘pick up’ in Paul voters (youth, wishy-washy democrats, and so on) who actually show to the polls.

    For example, if you compromise on drugs & social issues, you may gain some of the ‘Potheads for Paul’ or ‘War on drugs = police state’ types… But you will LOSE a huge chunk of the social conservative/religeous-right vote (currently split in the polls between Bachmann, Santorum, Perry and (curiously) Gingrich)…. This is critical not only because these voters are a large part of the base, but also because they tend to be *OUR* fanatical volunteers – the only group with ‘energy’ similar to Paul’s fanatics….

    If you compromise on the Federal Reserve, you quite simply are willing to toy with the economic ruin of the common citizen to appease a fanatical faction. ‘Hard money’, let alone a gold standard, is a death sentance for the average American, who has no savings, huge personal debt, & stores all their wealth in possessions instead of money. And the idea of Congress – authors of the 2008 meltdown – having direct control of the money supply? It’s like giving an angry 3yo a hair-trigger Glock (only safety is on the trigger, ya know) with a full magazine…

    Foreign policy? There’s already a party-of-surrender, the Democrats… And very few people are liberal on this issue but conservative on the others. Most are just plain liberal. at best, or at worst are liberal racists who mistake the GOP’s opposition to welfare as a racial thing rather than a principles-thing (and don’t realize that most welfare recipients are white)….

    However, Ron has another type of supporter – the type who thinks what he says sounds good because said supporter doesn’t know enough about history, foreign policy, and economics to know better.

    Rather than bowing to the fringe & altering our positions, we need to find a way to reach these people & explain to them why Ron is WRONG.

    On monetary policy, most of these people DO NOT UNDERSTAND the damage that Ron’s deflationary policy would do to their personal finances and that of their employers… They seem to think that shrinking the monetary ‘pie’ can choke off government spending without strangling them first – which is wrong (government would be the last to be impacted). They also buy Paul’s Wilson-bashing, ignorant to the historical fact that Wilson (in true Jacksonian form) generally opposed the Fed, whereas the Republican Party created it…. The GOP needs to DEFEND the FED as an institution, especially emphasizing that Congress can not be trusted with our money.

    On drugs, we need to point out that legalizing drugs will no more eliminate gang crime than ending prohibition eliminated the Mafia. Point out that right now most drug crime is criminal-on-criminal, but in an ‘Amsterdam’ world those who made their living in the illegal drug trade would now make it in bank robbery, car theft, and human trafficking – the crime would be the same, but the victims would be more likely to be honest citizens instead of other criminals.

    On foreign policy, remind them that isolationism KILLS both civilian & soldier in much higher numbers than intervention. Point out that if Hitler had been stopped at the Rhineland & Tojo stopped in China, 500,000 American troops would not have been killed fighting them when their armies were actually ready to contest the issue. And the financial cost of keeping a prepared & ready US military would have been far less than the ‘Pull an Army out our butt’ emergency mobilization we undertook after the 7th of December. Also point out that a properly sized, equipped & forward deployed military, serving as a deterrent, is far less expensive than the cost of turning a stateside garrison force (or worse, a force of border guards with guns) into a proper fighting force & then finding a way to push it forward under combat conditions…

    The solution is to confront Paul, not accommodate him.

  • Dave_A

    the Europeans current (completely justified) attempt to destroy his currency….

    Oddly enough, I think a certain GOP Candidate from Texas – you know, the sane one – suggested this sort of thing….

  • timkellogg

    Who agree with some of his less-crazy opinions that most republicans treat as crazy opinions. Personally, I think Santorum is at least as loony as Paul, in opposite ways, but nobody would dream of completely disregarding him or his supporters. A while back I was reading some commentary on here about something and I was reading someone casually stating a certain belief that all pornography should be illegal. That set-off my crazy alarm better than anything Ron Paul ever said that I was certain were his words rather than one of his maniacal followers.

  • timkellogg

    but how do we get rid of Santorum? He finds it abhorrent, the idea of individual liberty and responsibility. He makes it very clear. Why is this tolerable? Because he acts as though, in the situation in which this nation finds itself, the most important things to talk about are the never-ending, never-changing argument that only makes people mad on both sides and stopping every item on the LGBT agenda as-if our lives depend upon it? This makes him “one of us”? People who advocate a strict return to the bounds of the constitution are correct in a legal sense, are crazy by conventional wisdom, and are not nearly all represented by Ron Paul’s more extreme views or behaviors.

  • whartman

    Obama has spent his life on the sidelines. It meant he had no record to attack. So he won.

  • whartman

    Ron Paul doesn’t do racism or antisemitism either. Yes, he made a mistake in ignoring what was happening in a newsletter run in his name, which is certainly a black mark against him. But his stands on issues over a period of decades have been remarkably consistent, and are not racist or antisemitic. Nor have I found any indication, from those who know him personally, or quotes of his, that would support the contention that the man is racist or antisemitic. Your statement is clearly unfair, giving an uninformed reader (hopefully there are few at this site) a totally false view of the man.

    You can’t find anything else to disagree with about his proposed policies than that?

  • nicephorus1phokas

    or libertarian leaning and supports Paul’s views on these issues. Without the votes of a signficant part of the libertarians in this country no Republican can win a national race. We must find a candidate and a way to bring in as many of Paul’s supporters as we can if we hope to win. Comments like this thread aren’t helpful.

  • nicephorus1phokas

    or libertarian leaning and supports Paul’s views on these issues. Without the votes of a signficant part of the libertarians in this country no Republican can win a national race. We must find a candidate and a way to bring in as many of Paul’s supporters as we can if we hope to win. Comments like this thread aren’t helpful.

  • nicephorus1phokas

    .

  • nicephorus1phokas

    .

  • whartman

    So, Republicans led the implementation of the 5th plank of the Communist Manifesto (central bank controlled credit) here in America? And Wilson had no part in it? You think that a gold standard is anti-capitalist and fiat currency is capitalist? That the Republican party didn’t lead the doubtful questioning prior to entering WWI, WWII, Korea, and Vietnam and that the Democratic party and its presidents didn’t lead us into them?

    I have to wonder what, in your view, makes the Republican party different from the Democrats?

  • whartman
    Yep, Ron Paul did make that comparison.

    Sorry if you, and some other Republicans, are so filled with emotional responses to international issues (kinda like Democrats) that you can’t look at the truth in what he said.

    Our having bases in Middle Eastern nations does have a parallel in China having bases in Texas. His point was to try to help people look at international issues from the perspectives of our enemies. Not a perfect parallel by any means, but it does help an American to realize that some might resent our presence in their countries.

    Too many Republicans seem to prefer someone who makes hateful statements against other nations, beating the drums of war.

    Dr. Paul, and the Tea Party movement in general, is trying to move the Republican party toward a less imperial foreign policy and smaller government. Exclude those perspectives and you are little different from Democrats. You aren’t going to be able to win by showing how liberal / progressive / socialist you can be; you can’t beat Obama on his turf. Do you really want to?

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • pttx333

    n

  • pttx333

    and thank you for doing it!

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You blew it. Up until now you haven’t been talking up Ron Paul. Now you did. Get lost, creep.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I love it when I get confirmation I’m right.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You should have taken your own advice, idiot, and stopped shilling for your man-god.

  • Dave_A

    Woodrow Wilson ran on a platform of opposing the ‘Money Trust’ and the creation of a central bank. He later caved & gave the GOP Congress what they wanted, in return for concessions on the governance of the new bank – specifically having Presidential appointees share the job with private bankers (the original GOP plan, was for the FED to be 100% private, just like the 1st and 2nd Bank of the United States).

    The ‘Communist Plank’ argument is quite spurious, but common among the right-wing fringe… The flaw in the argument, is the contention that just because the Communists saw certain institutions or actions as useful to their cause, does not make these institutions ‘bad’ IF we can insure they are NOT controlled by Communists.

    It’s especially spurious when referring to a debate that has existed in US politics back when the Democratic Party was brand-new (but still radical and populist in nature), and the ‘Conservative’ party was the Federalist Party, and later the Whig Party. Marx hadn’t even put pen-to-paper at the time, so to characterize the Central Bank debate as a communist-vs-free-world one is disingenuous at best.

    As for currency-systems, YES, a gold-standard IS anti-capitalist, in that it involves government fixing the money-price of gold in law (for example, under our old gold-standard, 1oz of gold was ‘declared’ to be worth $25 (and later $35, IIRC) by law). There is nothing more anti-capitalist than legislative price-floors & ceilings, and that’s exactly what a gold-peg is. To contrast, so-called ‘fiat’ money is valued on the open-market, based on what currency traders believe it is worth. All that policy-makers can do, is increase or decrease the base-level supply of money & hope that the market follows suit, but in the end the market is the final authority (Witness the current situation, where the monetary base has expanded tremendously, but the money-supply & velocity-of-money have flatlined. The market is saying ‘NO’ to a larger money-supply (And thus also ‘NO’ to growth, as they go hand-in-hand), and there’s not a damn bit the government can do about it).

    Austrian Economics is as much a ‘road to serfdom’ (excuse me Mr Hayek) as Keynesian – all it does is change who the ‘lords’ and ‘serfs’ are. By essentially shuttering credit markets & forcing people to live off ‘savings’, all hope of financial mobility & business innovation is dashed – no one can afford it until they’re too old to do anything about it. It’s great if you want an old-Europe (or antebellum Old-South) style rigid class system… Not so great if you want to be a world-leading innovative economy.

    As for isolationisim, one must distinguish between a party policy, and the happenstance position of being ‘the Loyal Opposition’ during major conflicts. Of all the conflicts you listed, US involvement was a necessity of the geopolitical situation – or in the case of WWI & WWII a direct result of per-involvement isolationism.

    The alternatives are unthinkable: Letting our shipping be molested (WWI & WWII), letting Japan get away with bombing Pearl or letting Germany’s declaration of war (remember: The Nazis declared war on US, not vice-versa) go unanswered (WWII)…. Letting Communist aggression go unanswered in Korea and Vietnam…

    Beyond that, one will note that the GOP did not put up any serious opposition to the Democrats involvement overseas during the major wars (Anyone note any serious challenge to FDR for terms 3 & 4?) – something an ‘antiwar’ party WOULD do… And the GOP did not call for unilateral withdrawal from Korea or Vietnam, but rather for peace through military victory – which was achieved on a lasting basis in Korea & a temporary basis (due to our failure to live up to our treaty obligations, thanks to the Dems & Nixon’s corruption) in Vietnam. Hardly a pacifist stance.

    The fact is, there is no place in the GOP for ‘liberals who don’t like welfare’ – which is what most of Paul’s supporters are. Similarly, there is no place for the ‘We want the Confederacy Back’ crowd, or for Pat ‘Closet-Nazi’ Buchanan & Co….

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    for missing this complete piece of crap when it was first posted. I would guess you’re probably long gone by now, but I’m posting this just for the sake of clarity.

    Ron Paul is an unrepentant bigot, racist and anti-Semite. He didn’t “overlook” content on one or two newsletters, the content in question ran on a routine basis for YEARS and Paul is on video at the time promoting HIS newsletter. And you haven’t “found” any indication of racism or anti-Semitism from those who know him personally, I guess you don’t count his former chief of staff who’s been saying this publicly for a couple of months.

    As far as “his stands on issues”, he’s been a complete fruit loop on foreign affairs for decades. I’m not going to run down the individual instances of stupidity, the subject has been beaten to death here and the evidence is quite irrefutable.

    With respect to his positions on monetary policy, he’s just as loopy on this subject as on foreign policy. Gold is simply stupid. Fixed metal standards have caused significantly more problems around the world than “fiat money” ever has or will. And with respect to anything he has to say, don’t you find it interesting that Paul has been a member of Congress for about 30 years and hasn’t been able to make one ally who would stand with him on a single issue. He’s never had one piece of signature legislation even introduced, let alone passed.

    My comment was unfair in that it lacked some specificity, but the allegations are irrefutable. Ron Paul is a bigoted racist. He’s anti-Semitic to the core. His policy solutions are ill formed and ignorant across the board and his career is marked with complete failure to be able to sell his “ideas” to anyone but ignorant fools and kids (but I repeat myself).

    The fact – NOTE: fact – that Paul’s campaign is fueled by dissident left wing democrats, anti-military kids and people who would have found themselves right at home in Jim Jones church or Charlie Manson’s clan.

    THAT, you dunderheaded fool, is a better picture of Ron Paul and the ilk that follows him around.