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One pollster gives Gingrich South Carolina surge, others disagree

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 19th, 2012 at 07:00 AM  | 

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InsiderAdvantage polled South Carolina just a few days ago on the 15th, and Mitt Romney had a 32-21 lead on Newt Gingrich.

NewsMax had them poll again on the 18th, and the results were different. Gingrich takes his first SC poll lead in a month.

Facts: 720 LVs, postweighted, MoE 3.8.

The result is a huge swing from just a few days ago. We’ve gone from Romney +11 to Gingrich +3, a 14 point swing, but it’s not zero-sum. Gingrich gains 11 points, Romney loses 3. Jon Huntsman’s voters shifted heavily toward Newt Gingrich if this poll pans out, and isn’t just some fluke result for that one candidate, the former Speaker.

This is now our first major contradiction in the South Carolina polling. Rasmussen Reports showed Romney +14 in that firm’s first post-Huntsman poll. CNN/ORC shows Romney +10 (33-23) in their first post-Huntsman reading.

So two polls continue to show Gingrich in the 21-24 band he’s held for the last two weeks, but one poll gives him a huge boost. I conclude it’s possible that SC has very suddenly gotten a lot more competitive, but it’s not a sure thing.

One poll, one time, from one pollster, when two others disagree, does not make a surge.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • APA Guy

    ..instead of who we like personally.

    Perry is finished. I liked him early on, but he is clearly not ready for the big stage nationally. A Republican who can’t find a coherent sentence on multiple occasions will get whipped by Obama – and Rick Perry stumbles through answers far too frequently. I think that, not some beltway conspiracy, is more responsible for his 4% than anything.

    Romney…what the heck has he EVER accomplished from a conservative policy standpoint? Have his past views given us any reason to support him?

    Santorum? PLEASE…

    Then there’s Newt…record of handling fiscal AND monetary issues brilliantly…ability to articulate conservative principles brilliantly, clearly and consistently…conservative on social issues…welare reformer. His personal issues, including the idiot ex-wife looking for her 10 minutes of fame, won’t mean squat to a country that needs jobs and gas they can afford.

    Gingrich is best qualified to be president and has the track record on policy matters that we can trust. He is who we should be rallying behind, but Romney and certainly not someone polling at 4% nationally.

  • romeg

    Front page contributors to write an open letter to Newt.

    In this letter, Newt needs to be urged to channel his inner Reagan and Churchill and promote his vision for restoring and renewing America and abandon the self-promotion to which he tends to engage following his victories in the skirmishes along the way.

    He was magnificent in the debate on Monday. Almost immediately, he launches into soundbites that make him look venal, vain and insufferable.

    Please have him talk about his ideas and stop talking about himself. If he will do that, then people will see and hear the Newt that they want to win this race. They may actually decide that he is electable after all.

    Moe, Eric, Neil, Daniel, anyone of you wordsmiths or, perhaps, all of you.

  • dcarter888

    If you hear other conservatives who were in congress when Newt was Speaker he was blocking their agenda more than helping that’s why they kicked him out. He was even blocking welfare reform. Come on folks I know many of you are in the anyone but Romney club but he is the only candidate who can beat Obama in every poll out there. We’ve got to stop sending congressmen & Senators to oval. Come to think of it the last time a congressmen went to Oval without being a Gov or Sen on way was 1880. Glenn Beck sums it up best. How can you call yourself a conservative and state the best POTUS of 20th century was not REAGAN? Gingrich in his own words “I’m a progressive”. How is that not more damning than flip flopping in the right direction as Ann Coulter says. I think Eric is on a power play trying to effect election against Romney not toward who can go to Wash D.C. with a machete and cut and turn around our Republic. Mitt has state he could be a 1 term POTUS after he does all the cutting he wants to do. Please read Beck’s comments on progressive Newt. http://www.theblaze.com/stories/beck-explains-his-criticism-of-progressive-gingrich-plus-the-truth-about-his-views-on-the-tea-party/

    If 1/2 of what is going on in Europe happens here in USA the only candidate who has a clue about the econony and global markets etc is Romney. Also please watch these videos in full from Kennedy/Romney senate race most have only seen snippets that make Mitt look bad. T Party for Romney
    http://www.teapartyforromney.com/

    In closing if Newt is nominee Axelrod will turn debate about Newt and his baggage NOT about Obama & the Economy and Obama will WIN

  • avgjo

    those ‘conservatives’ you referred to, many of them were prominent in the following years in helping us get to this mess. Compassionate conservatism vs. the Gingrich that stole Christmas.

    Glenn Beck is nuts. I put up with all the crying. I put up with the seemingly bipolar radio bit. I put up with all the conspiracy theories on his blackboard (many of which I believe). That said, when he called Gingrich a socialist, I knew he was off his rocker.

    Perhaps Gingrich called himself a progressive. Mittens played one in real life – Romneycare, anyone?

    If Mitt gets the nomination, Obama will win. The whole OWS astroturf, Obama’s last year of class warfare, all that is geared towards a Romney nomination. Couple that with a dejected base which will probably stay home in droves, and dim-lite Romney will have his butt handed to him.

    Newt will go after Obama, and I’d not be surprised if he even goes after Axelrod.

    I knew Newt could be a contender after I asked him a question in 2010 down in New Orleans. I asked about the media and dealing with them if a body runs for prez. He told me you have to control the conversation. He’s done it and it’s done wonders for him.

  • lakeshore

    When will people wake up? He has no concept of true Conservative or family values, he just speaks well. This guy will drag down the whole party with him, even affecting Congressional races. I know many Conservatives who won’t vote for Gingrich in the general. That doesn’t even include all of the independents he turns off. How many stories do you think the Dems are sitting on, just waiting to roll out each week before the election? They’ll be laughing all the way to November. This Gingrich rise is a gift to them, not us. I’d rather see a dark horse chosen at the convention and then have a fresh start than to explain to people why they should vote for this guy. And remember how some Tea Party candidates had leads, but then lost? You have to have good horses to win a race, don’t depend on your opponent’s (Obama’s) weakness. Pick someone better than Gingrich, please.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/ap-source-abc-interviewed-gingrich-wife-15390315#.TxgSzGrZ-WE

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • lakeshore

    …and he is probably the least likeable candidate from either party (OK, Kerry is tied) that I can remember. Independents and undecideds base a lot of their votes on how they FEEL about somebody. It matters a LOT. Try to think how they think.

  • lakeshore

    I’m sorry to be blunt and personal about him, but that’s how most voters choose: personality matters. And please–spare me another “I don’t have to like the guy, I just want him to be tough and fight for the cause”. What some see as “tough” others see as arrogant.

  • mikelindell2

    That’s ludicrous. Gingrich’s “baggage” is old, personal, and irrelevant to the campaign. Attacking him for it would reveal how empty Obama’s ideas are. Romney’s “baggage” is relevant to the campaign-his numerous flip-flops, the fact he comes across as out of touch, etc. They will stereotype him as a mega-rich Republican.

  • elayman

    At least those were the last survey results I recall. So while Newt’s attacks may be stopping his own bleeding they could be backfiring to some extent by actually humanizing Mitt.

  • dave2131

    Romney & Santorum – no question.

    I don’t particularly care for Newt – I think his baggage (this goes for all of the candidates as well) will hurt him. I think he comes off as an angry person.

    With that said, I believe he could succeed as President. However, I don’t want to hear another sound bite about his Contract for America (or with America) that we did in the 90′s. I don’t want to hear about Reagan every 5 minutes when he speaks. I’m not trying to piss anybody off with that remark. Don’t get me wrong – I love Reagan, I wish we had another Reagan now. The Contract was good – while it lasted. That is in the past, I don’t think the independents really give a damn about that. They want to know what he’s going to do now.

    The independents are the ones who need to be won over, because in the end, the right will vote right, left will vote left. The middle is where we need to win. Not many people I know who are indies care for the GOP field. They need to be energized – if not they may stay home or vote for Obama.

    I’m not sure where the youth is right now…

    That’s the way I see it – right or wrong.

  • mikelindell2

    Gingrich is the only person running who has PROVEN what he will stand for and what he can accomplish in Washington. He is the most articulate and clearly has the best record. Romney is clearly our John Kerry. Romney’s record is mediocre at best, his claim to fame as governor is the same as Obama’s as president. To go after Obama we need the smartest, most experienced, most articulate person with the absolutely best record to contrast with Obama’s miserable record.

  • pdawk

    Independents are not going to vote for Newt.

    Newt will drive women voters off in droves as more becomes known (in the very near future) of his adulterous affairs, and callous attitude towards women in general

    Independents are not going to vote for the only former speaker of the house to be sanctioned for ethics violations and be run out of Congress by his own party.

    There is no way that Newt, with his lack of focus and discipline can last until November without making multiple major gaffes.

    The only reason Conservatives like him is because he is a very good debater and talks a good game against Obama. No one who looks at it rationally really believes that Newt has a shot in hell of winning the election.

    Even if Newt wins South Carolina he is going to get plastered in Florida and the other states leading up to Super Tuesday. His lack of campaign organization and money is going to catch up to him pretty quickly.

  • papabear

    Self promotion is Newt’s Achilles heel.

  • pdawk

    What makes a guy that has never won a statewide election, is generally despised by independents, is a serial adulterer, was the only speaker ever sanctioned for ethics violations, and is incredibly undisciplined the most electable? Just curious.

  • Ender

    Romney +10… I think this one is an outlier.

  • jimbomcw

    facts are facts

  • jimbomcw

    20% of evangelicals will never vote for a mormon

    That is just reality

  • jakeofalltrades

    You might be interested to know.

  • jimbomcw

    romney negatives growing

  • jimbomcw

    3 of them within last 2 days all show Obama beating perry by 5%

    bain is hurting romney and 20% of evangelicals will never vote for a mormon

    reality is reality

  • jimbomcw

    I need coffee

  • red_oakster

    Unlike Romney or maybe even Santorum, Gingrich does not seem to have any base in any region. What Gingrich might do is help to deny Romney a victory before the convention. But I don’t see how he can accumulate enough delegates to win the nomination before the convention,

  • dcarter888

    Newt’s Love for FDR – So how can he be a Reagan conservative and state over and over again the #1 POTUS of 20th century was FDR not Reagan?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgdzZJePL04&feature=player_embedded

    So all of Newt’s flip flopping which there have been many more than Romney’s & more recent are forgiven but let’s continue to not trust Romney? You can hate Beck all you want that doesn’t change facts he always backs his claims with video of the person be it Newt or Obama.

  • Justin Spagnolo (standardcandle)

    Mormonism has nothing to do with it. Evangelicals are not bloc voters. They tend to gravitate toward conservatism. Conservatives don’t like Romney because of his record.

    so there’s your reality.

  • dcarter888

    He stated they know Rick can’t win they were trying to put pressure on Mitt to pick Santorum as VP. He said it wasn’t that he was a Mormon it was because he wasn’t Mormon enough. He then went on to say that the majority of the pastors he knows would vote for Romney over Obama. So there you go you are wrong!

  • pdawk

    As a South Carolina resident there is definitely an air of movement towards Newt, especially by Santorum voters. A week ago I thought that Romney may win by 20 points here, but the base is rallying behind Newt.

    I think the vote will be within 5 points and I would not be shocked to see Newt win on Saturday. I cannot say how the latest Newt News is going to play out, but I think it really hurts him with women. My wife (who is as conservative as they come) already thought Newt was a sleazebag and this has done nothing to change her mind.

    I would not be surprised at all to see Santorum go after Newt big time on family values tonight. If he wants any shot here in South Carolina he has to get his support back from Newt as Romney is probably going to get right at 30%. I think there is going to be a bloodbath tonight with Santorum and Romney going after Newt and Perry and Newt going after Romney with Ron Paul just being Ron Paul. Should make for some must see TV.

  • conservativecurmudgeon

    to Gingrich in it’s first post-debate poll, having him down only three percent to Romney, which is statistically a tie.

    And it also appears that Romney actually lost Iowa, so, for what that’s worth, it takes away the Inevitability of the Inevitable Romney

    No, something’s going on. And,if his ex-wife doesn’t come out and destroy him, I think Newt’s got a real shot at this..

  • Crash71234

    newtie refuses to come clean on the most solemn oath a man can make, and that he violated at least twice?

    Yet he demands full disclosure from Mitt?

    newtie is not even worthy to serve as an obammie czar!

  • dcarter888

    Since when do conservatives say it’s bad to be successful? Here’s a Democrat who stands up for Romney & Bain Capital:
    Most Ethical http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/14/a-democrats-defense-of-romney-and-bain/

    Newt’s Private Equity Past
    After Newt was forced out of being Speaker & left House in 1999 he joined a Private Equity Firm
    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/09/newt-gingrichs-private-equity-past/

  • dcarter888

    Newt’s Best Hits Love for FDR
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgdzZJePL04&feature=player_embedded

    Newt is a progressive he’s NOT conservative

  • mikelindell2

    Let’s run through it. He has the best record. People are mostly concerned with not letting the country go to ruins. Therefore they’d be receptive to someone who has actually solved the problems we are facing before. He is the most articulate. No one can explain and defend conservative positions better than Newt. He worked with Bill Clinton to get things done (conservative things.) Obama’s main argument of a do-nothing Congress will be neutralized. Gingrich can talk about what he was able to get done working across the aisle. Gingrich can attract Hispanics better than other candidates. His immigration reform would be more accepted among Hispanics, a group we desperately need to do somewhat well with to win. He is the most experienced candidate we have. Remember, Gingrich was key to 1994 Republican takeover, obviously need good national strategy to do that. It would be harder to play “Mediscare” card against him. In recent USA TOday-Gallup poll, Newt was beating Obama in the 12 key swing states that will decide this election. On top of that he could probably sweep the south

  • paladin1

    Evangelicals are not block voters and most tend toward conservatism. I do believe however, that there is a portion of us who will not vote for Romney based on Mormonism but not nearly 20%, and the more damage Obama does in the next nine months, the fewer that already small number becomes.

  • WillWong

    If these so called conservatives who tried to get rid of Speaker Gingrich because of their conservative agenda, p,ease show us what conservative accomplishment have they gotten since the Speaker left! We have heard this line of lame attack so often it is getting old!

  • jimbomcw

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/19/breaking-perry-to-drop-out-thursday/

  • clowngirl

    CNN/Time did a poll from 1/13-1/17 that had Newt at 23 and Romney at 33 — a total shift of 4 points from a Rasmussen Poll taken the day before than had Romney at 35 and Gingrich at 21.

    If I understand correctly, the CNN/Time poll would be averaging data for 3 days pre debate with one day of data after Newt’s breakout debate performance.

    Rasmussen did a national poll on the 17th that showed Newt gaining 11 points.

    If you calculate what would happen if Newt were at an average of 21% for the 3 days prior to the debate and jumped 11 points the day after, the average comes out to 23.75% . The poll put him at 23 on the four day average. That could mean that Newt poll results on the 17th alone were actually around 30.

    I don’t know if there’s any way to find out if that’s how it actually happened – but it would seem to make sense.

    As to the Politico/Tarrance poll that disagrees. I don’t see any other data from them.. Are they new to polling? If so, then maybe they aren’t as good at it?

    (And yes, I would like to believe Newt’s now ahead in SC)

  • pdawk

    You do realize we did not decrease spending during Gingrich’s term as speaker, correct? We happened to have a dotcom boom that made everyone money and raised revenues. The congress under Gingrich still spent like drunken whores, they just had more money than they could spend.

    Also, it is hard to work across the aisle when the rank in file in your own party has no respect for you and your leadership. The guy is a egotistical maniac and a serial adulterer who is completely un-electable. It is both shocking and disturbing that he is the guy out of all the non-Romney’s who has a punchers chance.

  • clowngirl

    As to the ex-wife. The timing is annoying — especially as they will probably want to waste a lot of debate time on whatever dirt she’s shared (reportedly it’s not anything new ) it puts him in an awkward spot — but is also gives him a chance to say what he thinks of the media….

    And Rick Perry’s endorsing Newt today!!!!!

  • avagreen

    From South Carolina:
    Romney’s company ‘treated us like dirt’
    Romney’s Bain Capital made millions off Georgetown Steel as mill morale, finances suffered

    http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/01/14/2926059/romneys-bain-capital-made-millions.html

    These folks from Missouri
    KANSAS CITY, Mo. ? It was funny at first.
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45900038/ns/business-us_business/t/romneys-steel-skeleton-bain-closet/#.TxW7a_msaSr

    Or,
    Even as the investors prospered, Dade cut 367 more jobs in 1999, documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission show.

    The strategy of sharply increasing Dade?s debt alarmed several executives. Mr. Garrett, the former chief executive of Dade who stood to gain from the transaction, said he had argued unsuccessfully against it.

    ?It was too aggressive,? Mr. Garrett said. ?It was done right up to the limit of what the company could borrow.?

    …Creditors, unsettled by deteriorating finances and high debts, began to pounce. More layoffs followed. And in August of 2002, Dade filed for bankruptcy protection.

    ….The creditors threatened litigation against Bain and its investment partners, accusing them of ?professional negligence? and ?unjust enrichment,? according to bankruptcy documents. Bain and the other investors argued that the claims were baseless, but agreed to forgo about $68 million owed to them by Dade. And seven years after buying the company, Bain forfeited its remaining ownership stake.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/13/us/politics/after-mitt-romney-deal-company-showed-profits-and-then-layoffs.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all

  • clowngirl

    when Newt was at the top of his Newtmentum he was soaring on the favorability ratings — way ahead of Romney.

    If he gets back up to where he was – and exceeds it — his likability rating will go back up as well.

  • http://908StraightSt.wordpress.com/ mbecker908

    Look, what Bain and companies like Bain do is, by it’s nature, a nasty business. I did it for 20 years, I’m proud of my record, I’m just irritated I didn’t make as much money as Mitt.

    That crap is the equivalent of blah blah blah. Yeah, Obama will parade them on TV. We should be parading iron workers and pipe fitters and oil field workers who are unemployed, losing their homes and can’t feed their families because of Obama’s dedication to the enviro freaks.

  • jakeofalltrades

    He is not a lobbyist or some pointy-headed academic; Romney knows how to grow this economy, both on Main Street and on Wall Street.

    Romney has by all accounts been a faithful husband and represents – in his own life – the social conservatives more faithfully than Newt. Newt talks a social conservative game, but does he live it?

    Don’t we need more than just empty words from Washington?

  • elayman

    I just don’t see a way around it for Gingrich. He wouldn’t get the swing vote or even a large chunk of Republicans. People would be staying home or writing in candidates.

  • avagreen

    I’d rather ask my Governor…..whose economy far outstrips that of Massachusetts.

    If he’s so great in economics, why can’t he influence his own state?
    http://www.boston.com/Boston/businessupdates/2011/09/massachusetts-economy-showing-clear-signs-weakening/A5OP6HIx2ZRfkbmsTRYlWO/index.html

    In fact, where does he live? Seems to be in doubt. He voted in Massachusetts, but lives where?

    I did a google and came up with this. May not like the source, but the facts are indisputable. (The more I relearn what I’ve forgotten about Romney, the more I truly don’t like this guy.)
    Did Mitt Romney commit voter fraud when he cast a ballot for Scott Brown in last year’s special election in Massachusetts? …

    …chronology of Romney’s real estate moves since his failed presidential bid in 2008. …Romney and his wife, Ann, bought a $12.5 million home in La Jolla, California in May 2008….A year later, in April 2009, the Romneys sold their home in Belmont, Massachusetts, for $3.5 million, and registered to vote from an address in the basement of an 8,000 square-foot Belmont manse owned by their son Tagg. But where the Romneys really lived these past couple of years seems to be a bit of a mystery. While Romney was appearing at so many California political events people were speculating he was going to run for office there, the National Journal reported in May 2009 that the Romneys had made their primary residence a $10 million estate in New Hampshire.

    …

    Fraudulent voter registration in Massachusetts carries a penalty of $10,000 and up to five years in jail. And the law in Massachusetts is pretty clear about the residency requirements needed to vote in the state. The state defines residence as “where a person dwells and which is the center of his domestic, social, and civil life.”

    In July 2010, the Romneys bought an $895,000 attached townhouse in Belmont, on the grounds of the McLean Mental Hospital , a move that finally gave Mitt a permanent Massachusetts address. Karger has asked the state to open an investigation into the Romneys’ residency, as well as into whether they?ve been paying Massachusetts income taxes. The Romney campaign did not respond to a request for comment.In July 2010, the Romneys bought an $895,000 attached townhouse in Belmont, on the grounds of the McLean Mental Hospital [ed--on the grounds of a mental hospital?! did he really buy it for Sarah or Michele?], a move that finally gave Mitt a permanent Massachusetts address. Karger has asked the state to open an investigation into the Romneys’ residency, as well as into whether they?ve been paying Massachusetts income taxes. The Romney campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

    Residency issues have plagued Mitt Romney in the past. When he campaigned for governor of Massachusetts in 2002, he ran into trouble because he had switched his residency to Utah three years earlier when he moved to Park City to take over the struggling Salt Lake Olympic operation. The move technically made him ineligible to run for office in Massachusetts, which requires seven years of continuous state residency before a candidate is eligible to run. After a lot of legal wrangling and paying back taxes, he was finally allowed on the ballot.
    http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/06/did-mitt-romney-commit-voter-fraud

  • carolina

    His plan is much better than Romney’s. That could be a key difference between these two.

  • jakeofalltrades

    All that would speak to is a lack of organization in a campaign; however, I should note that unlike all the other candidates, Romney is competent enough to get on the freaking ballot.

    Look, I like Newt somewhat, but he’s a divisive character outside the hard-right. He will not woo independents more than Obama. Mitt Romney will.

  • clowngirl

    It was a Rasmussen poll- don’t remember the date but think it was his best head to head.

    If Newt becomes the nominee and generates excitement – then it will spread to independents…

  • jakeofalltrades

    His only competition, Romney, automatically wins Virginia as well as any other states Newt may have failed to qualify for. Newt’s only path to victory was getting Romney out before his competition. Now, that path has been obliterated.

    It’s Romney. Give it a month.

  • mikelindell2

    Welfare reform wasn’t cutting government? He also cut the growth of Medicare by 114 billion, Medicaid by 14 billion, other mandatory spending by 40 billion. Also, the capital gains tax cuts he passed were a big part the economy took off the way it did.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrWUxyk5pZY&context=C32b08a4ADOEgsToPDskITcSv-qX7rydzTAeKoVo4s

  • clowngirl

    it polled for the 16th and 17th and had Newt at only 24%.

    Both the polls that include only post debate data have Newt at 30% or higher.

    And the later poll (that includes only data from the 18th) has Newt in the lead. That doesn’t necessarily make it an outlier. It could mean that Newt’s starting to really pick up momentum.

  • acat

    I also won’t vote for Ron Paul.

    I may end up voting for Buddy Roemer, depressing as that is.

    Mew

  • clowngirl

    Newt only has one ex wife who’s inclined to sabotage him, Romney has how many disgruntled laid off employees??

    The Democrats would happily give every single one of them a microphone and a prime time tv slot.

  • Common_Cents

    Reports are Perry campaign took down any anti Gingrich pages as well. Maybe a hint.

    I see more pressure on Santorum tonight to try and get attention. He’ll probably come across as the old whiny Santorum.

    santorum will look whiny coming out and saying “but I won in IA!!!” It doesn’t matter anymore.

  • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

    no–text

  • clowngirl

    Rasmussen had Newt cleaning up with independents against Obama in one poll — and most of them probably haven’t even started paying attention yet.

    And my mom , who’s taken to describing herself as independen, has said she’d consider Newt but is horrified by Romney.

    The phoniness that conservatives don’t like, won’t endear him to independents either.

    Neither will saying things like “I made some money speaking, not a lot” when “not a lot” translates to hundreds of thousands of dollars for 8 speeches.

    Especially if played against the stories of those who lost their jobs. homes, etc. after being laid off by Bain.

  • tyman

    Boortz just said that Marianne says in the interview that Newt wanted to stay married to her, but have the affair with Callista.

    Oh, that looks bad. I really hope you’re right CC.

    I sincerely hope that Newt comes out looking better than Romney (both will be damaged) and that voters will see Newt as a far better alternative than the Marxist.

    I guess we’ll find out if the debates will matter.

  • avagreen

    since the beginning of time.
    And, his campaign got the heads-up about the “new rules” months before Perry got into the race. didn’t hurt that he also had the Lt.Gov on his payroll to help him with the “rules”.

    And, Romney’s past list of voters were available to him to walk in and sign up, which he began back in …….August?

    Your comparison is poor.

  • clowngirl

    And I hope we’ll soon be seeing a Gingrich/Perry ticket!

    I hope Santorum doesn’t go too negative tonight — doesn’t seem like he’s that kind of candidate. (though he has taken to calling Newt “Congressman Gingrich” which just makes him look small)

    If the debate moderator wants to dwell on the ex-wife stuff (doesn’t sound like she’s saying anything new or relevant) I hope Newt handles whoever it is like he did Juan Williams.

  • jakeofalltrades

    He’s been campaigning in these states since before Obama’s election. Mitt really does have the best chance to defeat Barack. That same campaign machine that is destroying the opposition in every state will soon be turned against Obama.

    It’s going to be a wild ride.

  • tngal

    per a daily caller story. That will hold some power of those on the fence. With Perry dropping out and supporting Newt, Sarah smiling on Newt and now a 100 TP leaders making an endorsement today, its going to be a blow to Romney. Certainly in the Southern states.

  • jakeofalltrades

    Virginia and Florida. Romney will take the rest of the country without even trying.

  • Common_Cents

    Because Friday, the ex wife stuff will be plastered all over tomorrow.

    Friday is the perfect time for Sarah Palin to go full endorsement of Gingrich(now Perry is out) to break the news cycle.

    I hope Gingrich has a few high profile endorsements for Friday to break up the news cycle.

  • littlehouse18

    Enough people will feel the same way so that Obama will win handily.

    Newt is no more conservative than Romney and much more unreliable. I believe Romney will do what the voters tell him to do. Sure, he sways with the breeze, but this time it will be our breeze.

    I would vote for Newt in the general to stop the Marxist, but with a huge pit in my stomach. But many others won’t. The women’s vote will be gone.

  • fightnright

    But the reality is that the Tea-Party/religious values media bashing machine (which is very powerful and reaches mainstream and casual voters far more effectively) will seize on this endorsement to cry hypocrisy, thus simultaneously losing (R)’s an equivalent number of secular, independent, and searching-for-an-Obama-alternative Dem moderate votes, and likely a lot more than were gained. So I’m not sure if such an endorsement is a plus, a loss, or a wash.

  • clowngirl

    Kinda had a hope that Governor Perry’s endorsement would come alongside a surprise Sarah Palin endorsement — but actually it would probably be better to let her endorsement be built up.

    I kind of wonder if Sarah Palin is doing something a little bit like what Erick was doing with not endorsing right away — that way she can say things that benefit Newt (like that she wants to keep seeing more debates) while still in the capacity of an independent pundit (as opposed to the Gingrich surrogate which I hope she will eventually become)

    I’m not sure the upcoming tabloid trash is going to hurt Newt as much as people think and – in a way- I think it could even help him..

    How many people can really look at a woman who enjoys saying things like “I could end your career in one interview”, who was happy to cheat with him and who waits for the most opportune moment to try and sabotage his campaign (which is not just about him, but also the70- 75% of Republicans who don’t want Romney as the nominee and who have given millions of dollars and volunteered many hours to Newt, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and others who they hoped would beat Mitt Romney) and give a huge gift-in-kind to Mitt Romney by revealing personal details and privileged communications

    She needs to be asked point blank who she is supporting for President.

    And if she was compensated for this interview in any way.

    Marianne Gingrich has given people who don’t even support Newt good reason to be tempted to describe her in words not printable on this sight. I’m not sure who can look at someone like that and say “Gee, I can’t understand why Newt wanted out.”

    And this whole “open marriage” thing is a total crock. She isn’t using the term in the usual sense of the word. “Open marriage” generally means being married to one person but wanting to sleep around, casually with numerous people (that’s what it suggests to me anyway) it sounds like what she is claiming Newt suggested was maintaining the pretense of a marriage to her while carrying on his relationship with Callista in private.

    That’s not particularly admirable – but, in politics, is probably not that uncommon and it’s not really what is usually meant by open marriage.

    But apparently Marianne can’t even keep her story straight — it sounds like she says – in the same interview – that Newt asked her for a divorce — and she, only then, discovered he’d been having an affair — and asked her to be remain married and just tolerate the affair.

    Which is it?

    There are other contradictions too, I’ve seen print articles where she says she was totally shocked — what she thought was her world was totally ripped away- when he asked for a divorce and admitted to cheating — and other accounts where she says she’d kind of known for some time.

    Anyway, my point is that Marianne is doing a reprehensible thing to voters who are supporting Newt — she might have several different motives for doing this NOW but none that are good,

    She can’t help but look bad and the worse she looks the more she becomes a walking mitigating circumstance.

    But I have to admit that I am perhaps less inclined to make a direct connection between a candidate’s personal life and their fitness to serve. I wouldn’t be supporting Newt if I thought he was still cheating but I do think that Bill Clinton – who was a serial adulterer – was a better President than Jimmy Carter who only lusted in his heart or Barack Obama who is (apparently) faithful to the woman who spent most of her adult life ashamed of her country.

  • dcarter888

    LOL

  • avagreen

    I said I didn’t like the source, but facts are facts………

    Waiting for your facts to show the opposite……….