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Mittmentum in Michigan and Arizona

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 21st, 2012 at 12:00 PM  | 

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Santorum Romney

Last week it looked possible that Rick Santorum would keep on winning in February with a big lead in Michigan and a possible lead change in Arizona.

New polling this week though suggests Mitt Romney’s back, and could regain control of the race.

What I find interesting, and what I called ahead of time on the Twitters, was that Rick Santorum’s successes had come in caucuses. Iowa, [Minnesota], Colorado, and Missouri were all his wins, and they all held caucuses. Santorum had yet to prove he could drive votes in a primary, which operates much more like a traditional vote.

Further, Mitt Romney has shown the ability to bounce back before. When Newt Gingrich won in South Carolina, he looked good in Florida. At that point, Mitt Romney’s campaign stepped up, and found a way to win. It’s not surprising that after the caucuses, Romney would push hard and win the next primaries.

Of course, surprises and expectations are fine enough to speculate about, but it’s better to have actual measurements. We’ll start with Arizona. The last three polls, including We Ask America and its 1155 LVs, MoE 2.9, don’t show Santorum managing to take a lead. The polls have a narrow 4 point cluster for Romney (36-39) and a 7 point spread for Santorum (27-33), with no overlap. If we take the median as a quick approximation, that’s Romney 37.5, Santorum 30. A 7.5 point lead is far down from what Romney was previously seeing in Arizona, but it’s also far from the lead Santorum was hoping to get.

We Ask America also polled Michigan (1025 LVs, MoE 3.1), along with Mitchell Research and Communications and Rosetta Stone Communications (420 LVs, no mention of mobile handling, MoE 4.7). We Ask America found a flat 29-29 tie in the state Romney won last time, while Mitchell and Rosetta Stone showed a 32-30 lead for Romney. Very close, but far from the leads as high as double figures we’ve been seeing for Santorum there.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • Whacker77

    Mittmentum is really a product of competing against the weakest presidential field in modern times. Romney will grind down everyone and winn the nomination.

    Resistance is futile.

  • pdawk

    Running the same playbook on Santorum he ran on Newt in Florida.

    Romney definitely can coordinate the attack when it gets crunch time. It always starts with his Super-PAC, runs to Jennifer Rubin and then is finished by Matt Drudge. Santorum is about to get the full frontal assault and it will be interesting to see if he can weather better than his predecessors.

  • razor

    From the We Ask America website re: Arizona -

    “..it?s hard to ignore Rick Santorum?s impressive track record of moving up rapidly at times. Clearly, the attention that Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu?s controversy is creating is drawing the spotlight from the news cycles that would normally be focused on the GOP presidential hopefuls.

    If (when?) Sheriff Babeau?s coverage dies down, there may be enough energy left over to move some numbers here.”

    So, the polling company opens the door to changes. That’s kind of important to know.

    Plus, when given We Ask America’s record, everything they say should be taken with a huge block of salt. Here

    http://weaskamerica.com/2012/01/16/withstanding-the-heat/

    … WAA was calling for a Romney victory in South Carolina, and even using the “fat lady singing” metaphor. “Oops.”

    I’m not a pollster, and certainly don’t pretend to be able to pick the future. Mitt Romney may very well win AZ and MI. But quoting a poll from a company whose recent track record is spotty as evidence is only slightly better than asking a Mittgic 8-Ball.

  • jaykali

    I really don’t care anymore. I hate that we could be months away from a nominee, I really, really just want someone to rally around against the ‘chosen one’, his holiness, Mr. Obama.

  • jon11

    the reality, and im not saying this to rub it anyones face, is that colorado, missouri and minn. were flukes.

    why?

    2 reasons.

    1) only days before those contests obama handed Santorum (the uncontested social conservative in this race) an enormous gift…a gift even bigger than the one John King served up to Newt Gingrich in South Carolina. Days before those votes you had the planned parenthood/komen row, the 9tn circuit court reversal of prop 8, and the hhs edict mandating that religious institution cover things that violate their conscience.

    That fired up the religious right.

    2) and im not sure why most people have neglected to mentioin this (i suppose because they don’t want him to win) but mitt romney barely competed in the 3 states santorum won.

    Santorum campaigned there and ran ads.

    Romney did nothing.

    I said the other day i’ve never voted democrat at any level anytime in my life…and that won’t change in 2012…regardless of who our nominee is.

    But its just a simple fact that Romney has the best chance of beating obama and i hope that everyone who has reservations about him will come on board when hes the nominee.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    What about that poll that has Santorum up in AZ… oh wait, there isn’t one.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I meant MN not NV. Good catch.

  • Creedo

    Paul might actually do some damage to Santorum and help out Romney with this ad buy he’s made for Michigan.

    http://youtu.be/cgNJBdTaKE8

  • Bill S

    …who are UP IN ARMS!!!!!11!!1! about Santorum’s social conservative comments – the GOP/primary electorate will decide whether that talk is bad or not. If it’s not something that people want to hear or see in a candidate, he’ll go away. The proof is in the polling.

    The dilemma would be: what if Santorum wins anyway? I expect there to be an entirely different discussion if that happens.

  • WillWong

    Is that a typo?

  • razor

    You apparently think I’m someone who cares whether Santorum wins or not. I’m not.. I’m just someone who wants sound opinions based on reliable facts, instead of “cherry-picked” results from polls that omit the pollster’s wiggle room and poor track record.

  • clintonformccain

    …because he was on Hannity last night, still railing against pre-natal testing. Gotta admire the guy’s perseverance.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

  • WillWong

    Not a Ron Pul fan by any stretch of imagination but am surprised no one mentioned this at all!

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57381016/ron-paul-wins-maine-country-caucus/

  • clintonformccain

    Why would anyone care about some county caucus in Maine where a grand total of 224 votes, divided among 4 candidates, were cast? It just doesn’t seem like a big story.

  • horizonscanner

    is won with logistical supply lines that feed the definitive battles.

    Santorum can win every battle if his followers can create the logistics to feed the battles.

    E.E. creates in his own imagination a dream of a war rather than the war itself. He underestimates Santorum’s aptitude for retail politics.
    And he really underestimates the ability of the Republican ant army to reinevent itself and reorganize and when led to charge and overwhelm the opposition.

    This election is about a man called, “Obama.” The war, or election, will come down to key battles, man on man. Lethal arguments must and will be delivered like heavyweight jabs, uppercuts, body blows and right crosses into the opponent’s psychosomatic center,

    Select the professional politician empowered to do this gladiatorial work with Churchillian gravity.

  • Archer

    Its tough to kill off the candidacy of a guy who can spend millions of dollars of his own money to in Florida lie about Newt’s record during the Reagan years then spend millions more highlighting the blemishes in Santorum.

    I don’t think the ability to spend millions of dollars when he has it at his fingertips is a particularly attractive quality in a politician and further its pretty much something that anyone could accomplish.

    Polls are fun to look at and talk about but the only poll that really matters is what happens in the polling booths on election day.

    At this point in the process, I’m concerned about the policies which the candidates will pursue when elected. And honestly Romney would already have had this thing sewn up if he had both his huge lead in money available to spend plus the right stances on the issues.

  • jamesm

    We Ask America?
    They were the worst polling company in Florida measuring Romney’s main opponents percentage of the vote. Worst of 17 polls before the florida vote. In South Carolina had Gingrich at 18% and he got 40% more than double. Look at their polling methods they are not legitimate in my opinion. Heck I could do a better job just throwing out some numbers. Still looking at Mitchell

  • Change Jar Conservative

    However, I do have to vote in my primary so I have to decide.

    Today my vote would be Romney.

    Two pluses for him —

    1) he was a governor and that is a good thing in a candidate.

    2) I’m not sure any of the others can win.

    Gingrich consistantly loses by large margins in polling.

    Currently Santorum and Romney and Paul have a good chance to beat Obama based on polling, but I think that where Santorum is going with his rhetoric, it’s just going to turn off too many people.

    And I just can’t get behind Paul, it’s just a bit ugly (although I would vote for him in the general).

    I suspect we will get something like:

    Romney/Santorum

    or

    Romney/Rand Paul

    when it is all said and done

    However, I admit that I may change my mind in the morning.

  • pdawk

    The other polls from that time period from Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, CNN, etc. showed Newt running from 21% to 23%. So they weren’t off 22 points, they were within margin of error of other polling outlets.

  • Whacker77

    I was under the impression his operation is so small, he’s not even doing any polling.

  • jamesm

    I don’t have enough information on Mitchell?Research?&?
    Communications?Inc. They do not seem like they have polled in other primary states. Romney at 32% is consistent with other polls. Romney’s ceiling seems to be at 32-33% in the last several legitimate polls. What is the biggest thing in this poll is the 22% undecided. The vast majority of these will most likely break away from Romney is that he is well know. Firmly in the Not Romney Camp.

  • jamesm

    Six days before the primary. You make a larger point. The polling for Romney’s challengers are understated. Why? To say that some other polling companies were off so that makes them accurate?Their poll also has a large undecided vote. We will see.

  • lineholder

    As a SoCon, Santorum’s emphasis on social issues doesn’t bother me…I’m very glad to see it in many ways. But he’s put so much emphasis on social issues and relatively limited amount of emphasis on fiscal issues. I’ve found it hard to believe that support for him will solidify in a way that allows him to weather through Romney’s attacks.

    If it does…if he wins anyway…then yes, that changes the discussion entirely.

  • pdawk

    There just happened to be a ton of non-committed voters creating an incredibly volatile situation with polling. On the date they polled that was a snapshot of that time frame only. In case you haven’t been paying attention this has been as volatile an election cycle as any in recent memory. Twenty point swings in polling after debates has occurred on multiple occasions.

    It is easy to try and scapegoat some polling company when they create a result you don’t agree with. Backing it up with facts is harder.

  • Bill S

    …is probably about all he can afford right now.

  • goodgovernance

    We all knew he was going to get increased media scrutiny, as well as carpet bombed with SuperPAC ads. But I’m not sure Santorum is helping himself any with what appears to be such a focus on contraception and theology. I say “appears” because maybe the media is exaggerating his focus there, but the media didn’t fake the footage of him they’ve shown.

    Santorum is at his worst when he’s mad. He looks like nothing more than an angry frat boy in those moments. Certainly not presidential. It may get cheers in the room, but I wonder if across Michigan it will get him the votes he needs.

    I’m still rooting for Santorum to win in Michigan, and even Arizona if he can pull it off. But I’m glad Gingrich is still in the race, in case Santorum stumbles.

    Meanwhile, the cagey, unprincipled Romney continues blathering about how much he loves trees and — which home state is he in? oh, Michigan — cars, when the times call for him to talk about so much more.

    Either he has no principled agenda that motivates his candidacy, and he figures he can get to the White House merely by pointing out how terrible everyone else is – which, by the way, is indicative of an entitled mentality – or Romney does have an agenda, he just doesn’t want to talk about until the general. Which indicates he wants to hide his centrist, big government inclinations until he can reach the general voting population that will appreciate them.

    Which of these is the scarier possibility?

  • jamesm

    Just released. This is what I am talking about. At least Rasmussen is a legit polling company.

  • trickamsterdam

    Yes, I’ve joined the Ron Paul-is-something-you-scrape-off-your-shoe club. As w/ most libertarians as the ego gets bigger the brain gets smaller.

    He has the exact same intellect and body type of the Taco Bell chihuahua, but lacks that creature’s ability to make people laugh and smile.

    Now he’s helping Romney by running hate ads on Santorum in MI, a state he has no chance in. This is because like most libertarians, he thinks small and lacks both imagination and dreams.

    This old clown, from the most empty circus tent in the world (Libertarian Party) still wants to be the “Not Romney”, so he’s trying to destroy Santorum. Meanwhile, Newt and Santorum have both gone beyond that, feeling that Romney is no better than them at this point and Obama is the target.

    But Paul is happy for second place and “a spot at the table”, where he’ll be fed scraps that the actual human beings refuse to eat (for instance that single fruit cake that everyone re-gives away to each other every Christmas).

    For his slavish groveling Romney will award Paul a prime-time speech at the Convention, where he will talk about gold and no one at all will care.

    Hopefully, Romney will then lock Paul in his dog Seamus’ old kennel…where Paul will then be strapped onto the top of a car in it, and driven to parts unknown.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You only judge whether a firm’s good by whether they get the results you want.

    You’re a quack.

  • WillWong

    Just one of the county which put off the caucus due to snow.

  • jamesm

    ARG, PPP, Rasmussen. You pick one. We Ask America is not one of the top polling firms period. I believe they have been polling for less than two years. Their polling needs to get better.But yes I do like it when my team is winning.

  • krish

    Last week alone, I have been following Drudge & how nasty & partisan he has been against Rick! In fact, I mentioend tow to three times about Drudge going for all out attack on Rick just like Newt!

    Conservatives – let us identify these false conservative media icons! As the saying goes – “follow the money”…I am sure somewhere along the lines, Drudge will cash in… It has become very obivious – Drudge is dead against Conservative republicans!

    This election cycle has been eye opener for the conservatives who are observing the developments – We Now “Know Who the Real Conservatives are in the Media”. If nothing else turns out positive, at least we know who are the frauds in the conservative media – Coulter, Drudge, Rove, Fox News RINO Pundits, Ingram, Medved ..list goes on!

  • sowa1

    he is the best candidate out there. Sick of the way Republicans, Conservatives are acting. We need to win the White House and all of you are ruining our chance.

  • sowa1

    will win in Michigan and he will win the White House.

  • pdawk

    Is a “false conservative media icon”?

    People can make their own choices on who they want to support. Just like RedState and every other conservative commentator and publication on earth supported Romney last time around.

    I get very sick of the holier than thou attitude many people have. Drudge can run whatever the hell he wants to run.

  • Juggernaut

    so without the money he’s a nobody with a lousy economic plan and he’s a moderate competing against better suited candidates with their own flaws. Romney doesn’t deserve to win in a race where media idiots,pundit fools and morons have decided the race based on what liberals think about the GOP and the candidates. Romney voters vote for the destruction of conservative values but like Romney I doubt he ever studied what conservatism is let alone cared to adjust to conservative values making him a unelectable.

  • Juggernaut

    and diverting people to real conservative sources. While most don’t read guttersnipe sites, Drudge isn’t as big an influence as RS.

  • jaykali

    I don’t dislike Santorum, altho he is just okay. I think people have a hard time picturing him as a president. Romney is as ab as generic as you can get but maybe he can get better. At the end of the day I want to win. I do think that it’s telling that the Obama camp has spent all of their time attacking Romney not any of the other candidates except maybe a little bit at Santorum in the last week, that’s ab it.

    There isn’t any way Romney would do Rand Paul. Santorum I don’t think would be a choice either. I have heard Bob McDonnell and a couple others, Christie for instance. I don’t see any way he picks a moderate type (not that Christie would want to be VP anyway).

    There could not be a more perfect VP candidate that Marco Rubio, he would be fantastic but it remains to be seen if he wants to be on the ticket. I have a hard time believing anyone else would really add anything to a Romney ticket.