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Primary Day update of Michigan and Arizona

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 28th, 2012 at 12:00 PM  | 

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Arizona

Last I looked at these two Republican Presidential primaries, the first primaries since Florida and the first binding races since Nevada, I called it Mittmentum.

I was right about Arizona. Michigan though has remained complicated.

Both in my opinion and in technical delegate math, these primaries are important. Arizona’s 29 statewide winner-take-all delegates (Source: RCP, the most indispensable site on the Internet) represent more than half of what Rick Santorum has won, even if you count his non-binding caucus haul of 44 delegates from Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, and Maine.

Michigan has 30 delegates at stake, but those are awarded in a complicated hybrid of WTA statewide, WTA by Congressional district, and proportional statewide allocations. So as a result, the winner in Arizona is almost certain to be the overall winner tonight.

So let’s look at Arizona first. I called it Mittmentum when We Ask America hinted that Romney was recovering from the mid-month polling, back when Santorum pulling within single digits. That was true. Some had been critical of We Ask America, but subsequent polling by PPP, Rasmussen Reports, and NBC News/Marist College confirmed the trend.

The Arizona polling is rather stable. Romney has a band of 42-43 for a median support level of 42.5. Santorum has a band of 26-29 for a median of 27.5. That 15 point gap is unlikely to be made up this week. It’s possible, but it would be the biggest upset of the cycle to date, I believe.

So Romney will almost certainly be the delegate winner tonight. The Hybrid system makes it nearly impossible for Santorum to win all 30 delegates, and in fact the scattered delegate apportionment would seem to resist underdog-friendly strategies. Santorum must win Michigan statewide in order to keep Romney from having a very good night.

He might have trouble. We Ask America, Rasmussen, and Mitchell Research and Communications all award slim leads to Romney. Only PPP has Santorum on top. Very close polling though: Romney has a band of 37-38 for a median of 37.5. Santorum shows a range of 33-38, with We Ask America looking to be an outlier there, as it put Santorum at 33 but everyone else had him at 36-38.

If we include We Ask America, Romney looks to have a 2 point lead. Otherwise, it’s tied in my estimate. And again, a tie in Michigan means Arizona decides who wins the night.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • sethellis

    I used to claim “stop playing the reverse psychology mind games, who cares what Dems think”. However, now that the Dems show a clear preference, and appear positioned to influence the primary in a big way, I see things very differently. They’ve been meddling in our primary this entire time, and everyone from the candidates, to the elites, media, voters, and even Redstate have played right into Democrat hands.

    Even if Romney wins, the fact that they could even come close to disrupting the process is a huge blow to the party. I don’t see how you recover from that. Some say just focus on individual races, but we may well find ourselves trying to rebuild the entire party. That’s where this is heading if we don’t stop playing into their hands.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    MI is a closed primary, so any attempt to blame Dems for a result there will need a LOT of evidence to back it up.

  • red_oakster

    Romney may win the most delegates tonight, but if he loses Michigan and consequently he gets crushed next week in places like Ohio and Tennessee, Arizona won’t help much in the long haul.

    I think this race is starting to look a bit like Muskie vs. McGovern in 1972. Muskie also won early (New Hampshire), but he won weakly and he faded. Romney is starting to look a lot worse for wear. If he can win Michigan tonight, he’ll avoid a crisis. But if he loses his native state, even a comfortable win in Arizona is unlikely to save him from a disaster next week.

  • brah

    Santorum is urging Dems to come vote for him in Michigan. Pretty pathetic in my opinion.
    http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120228/POLITICS01/202280365/1022/rss10

  • sethellis

    All this means is that they have to register as a Republican at the booth. Any registered voter that wants to vote in the GOP primary today will be able to.

    The number of Democrats in exit polls will provide all we need to know. If turnout follows PPP’s model then Dems will push Santorum over the top.

  • Kyle-MI

    The procedure for voting in the Michigan primary is:
    1. They validate your ID
    2. You choose which ballot (Dem or Rep) on which to vote
    3. You go vote

    Party affiliation is decided the day of the primary right before you vote.

  • mikelindell2

    & attacking Mitt for not supporting the auto bailouts. Neil, Michigan is an OPEN primary, for the record, and many Democrats plan on voting for Santorum. Please wake up conservatives-Newt is the only choice. Romney is a liberal Republican just like George Romney and Santorum is a Big Labor, Big Government, Big Spending, totally unelectable Republican.

  • Whacker77

    The Mihcigan primary is open to all voters. Democrats put John McCain over the top in 2000 and Republicans helped Jesse Jackson in 1988.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    I’m citing my source, RCP.

    What’s yours?

  • mikelindell2

    has to beg liberals to vote for him and attacks Romney for not supporting bailout of Detroit. He’s so principled that he votes for bills he says he disagrees with because “politics is a team sport, folks.” He’s so principled that he votes for every earmark and spending bill while calling himself a conservative. He’s so principled that he used to praise Gingrich constantly, saying he’d want him as his VP, and then decided to attack him. He’s so principled he endorsed Romney in ’08 and now has decided to attack him for policies Romney had already put in place when Santorum endorsed him.

  • brah

    http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120228/POLITICS01/202280364/The-who-what-where-Michigan-Republican-primary?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cs

  • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

    From the Michigan Election Web-site’s FAQ’s:

    Do I have to be a registered Republican or Democrat to articipate in Michigan?s Feb. 28,2012 presidential primary?

    No. Michigan?s presidential primary has been designated a ?closed primary.? However, there is no political party registration requirement in Michigan Election Law governing voter registration. Any Michigan registered voter can participate. By law, you must make your ballot selection in writing, and will do so on Election Day in the polls on the Application to Vote/Ballot
    Selection Form if voting in person. If voting absentee, your ballot application form will have a space for you to choose whether you want to vote a Republican or Democratic ballot.

    Here’s the URL:
    http://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/Public_FAQ_2-13-12_376851_7.pdf

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    So the state law is messing up the state party’s intent here.

    That’s… problematic.

    thanks,

  • Republican_Michigander

    A vote for Newt here is only good as a protest vote against everyone. Might as well be a vote for Perry, where I was leaning before he dropped.

    For the record, Santorum’s against BOTH bailouts. He’s attacking Romney for being FOR the Wall Street bailout but against the auto bailout.

  • jamesm

    In their latest poll they have Romney 4 points ahead. The proof is in the pudding. Tonight will tell

  • Republican_Michigander

    Anyone can vote in the primary. Anyone can pick a ballot of their choice. We don’t register by party. I voted already today and picked the Republican ballot.

    A democrat can walk in and pick a republican ballot. The only thing that the democrat has to do is say that he wants a republican ballot. The choice is made public.

    I went into the details here back last August.

  • thosjefferson

    This is insightful, but it’s more true than you realize now that we find out Santorum is in cahoots with DailyKos.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/27/1068833/-Rick-Santorum-Joins-Operation-Hilarity

    McGovern also promoted government favoritism of “approved” industries, the way Santorum does. McGovern also supported David-Bacon and opposed right-to-work. He also loved earmarks, voted for more government debt and spending, and he wanted to give everyone $1,000, which is similar to Santorum’s tax proposals.

    Santorum is even more McGovern-like than Obama!

  • Republican_Michigander

    Not counting the absentees:

    I was number 25 at 9AM in a swing/slightly D precinct in Green Oak Township. I voted for Santorum. There was some grumbling about the robocalls which have been absolutely nasty. I had 15 from Romney in four days, and none by Santorum. My parents had even more calls, mostly from Romney, but some from Santorum as well.

    My parents were number 89 and 90 in Genoa Township in a heavily GOP precinct.

    The county overall is the third most republican county in Michigan by percentage. It was also heavily neglected by both campaigns this last month for some reason mystifying to me.

    I don’t know who is advantaged by the turnout here. Santorum’s been hit hard on spending here, but Mitt’s got his own problems with Romneycare, fees, gun bans, etc.

  • http://www.tooncesthecat.wordpress.com tooncesthecat

    which was billed as a “closed” primary, but any registered voter was eligible to vote in the Republican primary just by showing up and asking for a ballot. This will also be true for Virginia, except there you have to sign a “loyalty” oath. Evidently a lot of “closed” primaries aren’t really “closed” as a result of state election laws. I agree that it’s a problem.

  • Republican_Michigander

    Why vote for FDR lite when one can have the real thing, and the unelectability to boot.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    They predicted Romney’s Arizona recovery.

    It’s the We Ask America critics who at this point are unproven.

  • deano64

    since you would assume the Democrat would vote for whomever they view as our weakest candidate. Not sure who they think that is at this point.

  • papayapicker

    There are examples of robocalls being made on Santorum’s behalf asking Dems to show up and vote so they can keep Romney out.

  • thosjefferson

    Santorum is racking up all kinds of allies. Now Michael Moore:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/02/28/michael_moore_a_lot_of_my_democratic_friends_will_vote_for_santorum.html

    equalize-now has been saying that Erick Erickson is one of their secret agents. Apparently Santorum is as well.

  • papayapicker

    Since the county you talk about is the third most Republican and was neglected, perhaps the strategy of both candidates is to draw in the Dems and Independents who can ask for those Republican ballots. “Vote for me and mess up the other guy’s plans.”

  • jamesm

    Santorum by all accounts did not have a good debate. In Arizona almost half the votes are already cast because of early voting. I have not really paid much attention to Arizona. Michigan is the the most critical state for Romney. Let’s see tonight if We Ask America is accurate in Michigan. They may or may not be.

  • Republican_Michigander

    .

  • Whacker77

    Why is Santorum making robo calls to Democrats urging them to vote? Why is WIllard complaining that asking Democrats to vote for Santorum is a dirty trick? Why is PPP polling democrats and including a portion of them in their numbers? Why did Kos lauch Operation Hilarity encouraging democrats to vote for Santorum in MI to keep the process going? Democrats need only enter the polling station and announce they are now Republicans.

  • Ender

    messing with the MI Primary and trying to get liberals to vote for Santorum, read my diary with links – Democrats are trying to push Santorum over the top in Michigan.

  • libertus

    I am not a fan of Santorum (in fact I think Romney may even be slightly better), but if I lived in Michigan today I would vote for Santorum to stop Romney.

  • papabear

    Are you pro Santorum or pro Gingrich?

    I have not made up my mind about Gingrich yet. However, a vote for him in MI is essentially a vote for Romney. Whoever the final nominee is, the political calculator tells me that I need to vote for Santorum tonight.

  • Republican_Michigander

    I was going to vote for whoever is closest to Romney in the polls and pro-life. I don’t trust Romney and don’t think he’s electable.

    I prefer Santorum to Newt, but I can live with Newt.

  • http://punditpawn.wordpress.com punditpawn

    I just voted for Santorum in Michigan. Not to help Santorum… but to level the playing field so Newt can get back in during the disarray.

    Hang in there Newt, they are self-destructing.

  • jamesm

    .

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    You keep making your one irrational point and I don’t even care anymore.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    .

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