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Mitt Romney short but in reach of the majority

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 7th, 2012 at 11:30 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Delegate Majority race

When three candidates hang into the Presidential nomination race after Super Tuesday, it becomes time to check whether anyone can get a majority.

Mitt Romney is close. So far he’s not there, but if current trends hold he will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States, and become so on the first ballot.

The above chart (click for a full size version) is not the usual way to depict delegate counts. Instead of a cumulative chart of absolute numbers, it’s a cumulative chart of the amount the candidate is above or below a majority of decided delegates. I start with the unpledged but endorsed delegate counts per RCP, and then day by day award delegates, all the way to Super Tuesday at the end.

Super Tuesday was a big win for Mitt Romney, but thanks to Georgia he actually fell to his deepest majority deficit yet: 16 delegates (15.5 by the math, but obviously we have to round up). What this tells us is that the only way for Mitt Romney to be stopped is for the three remaining candidates all to join together. Voters for Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul must all come together behind one candidate, or else Mitt Romney will win this by attrition.

Newt Gingrich can’t manufacture any more home states to win this cycle. In fact if we remove Georgia, Mitt Romney takes a majority. That’s how important that one state is at this point in the cycle, and how much Georgia is skewing the results. But as time goes on, Georgia’s effects will be muted by further states coming up, states unlikely to see a repeat by Gingrich.

That is why I say Romney may be just barely short right now, but the trend favors him to win this race.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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COMMENTS

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  • http://online.logcabin.org/about/ suzieQ

    Romney is nothing more than Barney Frank with an R after his name. He is our nominee and we will be told to vote for him.

    I live in Utah. I don’t see my district falling to a democrat, it is a very conservative district (UT-2). I also don’t see anything changing on the senatorial front. At the most, Orrin Hatch will be replaced with someone more conservative. The same could be said for my state legislature which is 91% republican.

    In other words, I don’t see a real need to drive to the polls and stand in line in November.

  • izoneguy

    The Obama detox President.

    Romney will be the guy who replaced the first black president.
    I don’t see Romney doing anything but maintaining the status quo.

    Would Obama be able to run again if he loses 2012?

  • izoneguy

    ?

    So you think the Obama supporters will stay home?

    We need to replace Obama – even if Romney is a bland placeholder.

  • stumpy

    the Democrats aren’t that stupid. What would be the rationale for an Obama ’16 bid if he loses in ’12? First black president – done that. Hope and change – no hope, bad change. Experience – he really only has a few months experience given how little he actually works. Personality – probably become very bitter and snippy after a loss (see Gore, Al). He would have no signifcant, popular accomplishments to run on. Healthcare, bad economy, grotesquely excessive spending, infringement on personal freedom, increase in the power of the federal government, massive expasion of bureucrat power, etc. History will not see Obama kindly from his first four years. He will be remembered much like Jimmy Carter with loss in ’12.

    Interesting thought, but even in this election, if we had the Obama of today, without the power of incumbency, any of the four candidates would wipe the floor with him. That said, he does have incumbency and the media and will likely defeat any of the four midgets. The incumbency power would disappear after a defeat.

  • stumpy

    I am supporting Newt as the best of the rest. I will vote for him on March 13. However, for the same reasons Newt isn’t the best presidential candidate, he also is not the best VP candidate. He has his strong suits: good at pleasant attacks, good at media attacks, southern appeal, conservative track record (mostly). He also has DC connections, some bad issue choices after his political career, personal baggage, tendancy for gaffes, etc.

    The VP is basically worthless in a general election in modern times. The only real purpose is to strengthen positions with the base and mend intra-party fences. McCain did this and Romney would accomplish this with Gingrich. Bush didn?t need to because of the large, quick primary victory. He chose for experience in weak areas by Cheney, as did Obama with Biden (foreign policy and experience, it?s laughable but that was the rationale).

    Romney would do much better with a Bobby Jindal or Marco Rubio. He needs a southerner and solid conservative. The appeal of a non-white candidate (or woman) would also add a bit of bonus. A swing state resident might substitute for a southerner in benefit. (Virginia is not a swing state. If it is, then Romney loses anyway. He has to carry Virginia and focus on Florida, Ohio as swings, etc.) In the end, it doesn?t matter that much who the VP is.

  • codenametimna

    His campaign said today it would take an “act of God” for Romney to lose the nomination. Acts of God (what many people consider events beyond their control) happen all the time don’t you know.

    You have to admit Mittens is on somewhat of a roll. If Santorum could have eked out a victory in Ohio, it would be the headline in today’s paper and would have given Santorum much more momentum in the battles ahead. Since he lost, Romney is now the preeminent frontrunner and has the greatest momentum going forward.

    If you looked at the results last night you’ll you noticed people are still having a hard time supporting Romney. Virginia’s vote total showed Ron Paul surging as a result of what many people think were Republicans voting for Paul in an effort to beat Romney, since both Santorum and Gingrich weren’t on the ballot in Virginia.

    Let’s face it. In order for Rick Santorum to upset Romney, it will likely be necessary for Newt Gingrich to drop out of the race and endorse Rick. Gingrich’s supporters would likely vote overwhelmingly for Santorum if Newt dropped out. Right now Santorum and Gingrich are “splitting” the conservative vote and the only person that helps is Romney obviously.

    What it boils down to is whether or not Gingrich has the humility and grace to bow out in order to defeat what many people believe is a “wolf in sheep’s clothing” i.e. a notoriously liberally minded person turned conservative – in order to win an election – the infamous Willard Mitt Romney. Who in 2009 called on Obama to use Romneycare’s “individual mandate” as a template for Obamacare. A man who has “flip-flopped” on practically every stance he’s ever taken on the issues – according to the political winds of opportunity – so he can win his most treasured prize (which is dad was unable to do) the United States presidency.

    Albeit, if Romney ends up winning the nomination I’ll certainly vote for him in the general election. ANYBODY is better than socialist Obama. But either Santorum or Gingrich would be a MUCH better conservative alternative.

    My guess is that Newt’s ego will likely prevent him from bowing out. Thereby assuring Romney gets the nomination. Newt has to decide if he wants a Massachusetts moderate (many people say liberal) to face Obama, or the conservative candidate best positioned to win the nomination in replace of Romney. Which is Rick Santorum. The choice is his to make. Sometimes a candidate needs to think more about his country than himself. You know, like our forefathers did. ;)

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    …unless you think Ron Paul people are going to cooperate with real Republicans.

  • izoneguy

    Obama’s HUGE ego – he would run in 2016 if he lost in 2012 -
    and then again in 2020 if he loses 2016 -

  • swami7774

    I’ve lived in the People’s Republic of MA for 22 years, and have seen Romney and Frank close up.
    Romney is no Frank. Not even close.
    A laughable assertion.

  • gumbojuice

    than see Romney win the general.

    The derangement is complete.

  • gumbojuice

    I’m not sure Santorum can withstand the scrutiny of that spotlight all by himself. This idea that all of Newt’s voters would go to Santorum is wishful thinking at best.

  • greyeagle

    Col. Allen West would be the best choice. He has a lot of executive experience courtesy of the US Military. He is a staunch conservative and has a wonderful life story. He is black and from Florida.

  • greyeagle

    Well that act of GOD might just happen.

  • stumpy

    better than Romney. Rick’s problem is he can’t let some questions go. Mitt is the opposite, you can’t nail him down on anything. Rick has to answer every bait question thrown his way. Mitt waffles and Gingrich smacks them back with it.

    What I hear no one mentioning is Rick isn’t far ahead of Newt and good be overtaken after Alabama and Mississippi in delegates. In total vote count (irrelevant except to show overall earned support), Rick is only 1.3% ahead of Newt. That is really close. Newt is one Rick or Mitt yap-trap away from having a path to the nomination, other than a brokered convention.

    If Newt loses Alabama and Mississippi, I would agree he should step out.