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The Maine problem the Democrats face in 2012

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 14th, 2012 at 06:00 PM  | 

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Maine

Senate polling comes and goes lately, and primary polling is even harder to get. Pollsters seem to get more attention when they make these premature Presidential general election matchups.

But we got some Maine Senate polling from PPP just in time to get wind of some possible machinations in that race. Could Democrats be clearing the way for independent Angus King?

King, the former Governor, claims it is “hogwash” that he cut a deal with Democrats for the seat, but it seems likely that he would caucus with Democrats. He’s now endorsed the Democrat for President three times in a row (Obama 2012, Obama 2008, Kerry 2004), and is a “green energy” activist. It therefore stands to reason that the Democrats might not want to split their votes with him, possibly letting win a Republican like Charlie Summers (who led PPP’s 7-way poll of the GOP primary 18-10) or Scott D’Amboise (who came in second in the poll).

The exit of Democrat Chellie Pingree from the race seems to support the theory, too. She had led the 3-way poll of her party’s primary 52-28 over John Baldacci. However in PPP’s poll of the primary frontrunners, it was a close race, with King at 36, Pingree at 31, and Summers not that far behind at 28.

What other reason might the apparently strongest Democrat have to quit so abruptly? Could it be that in that poll, a mere 4 point swing from King to Summers could give to the Republican a seat that should be an easy pickup for Harry Reid’s caucus? It’s hard to say.

The problem is though, it’s hard for a major party not to run a candidate for an open seat. Even as Pingree quits, Baldacci might not. Even if Baldacci quits, Matt Dunlap might not.

Angus King might become another independent in the senate, in the sense that he’ll have no party nomination, but caucus with one major party anyway. Or, he might split the left and give Republicans an upset victory. That’s a genuine strategic problem for Democrats this year, and I don’t think it’s hogwash that Pingree is showing us the way the Democrats intend to solve it.

Crossposted from Unlikely Voter

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  • belcatar

    Baldacci declared today that he isn’t getting into the Senate race. He said he was excited to enter the race, but didn’t like the six year commitment to stay in Washington. (I heard him say that on NPR, which, by the way, is difficult to listen to sometimes. Listening to the Weasel talk was one of those times.)

    Michaud and Pingree are also out.

    I think Maine is leaning more conservative, as evidenced by the election of Paul LePage, defeat of gay marriage, and the Republican majorities in the legislature. Of course, in terms of geography, most of Maine is already conservative. It’s the populated areas in southern and coastal Maine that edge it to the left. I think Michaud wins because of support from union workers in the paper mills, and support from public sector unions as well.

    I can tell you that Baldacci the Weasel wasn’t popular with me. He rammed through this school consolidation bill that no one wanted. What’s worse, towns that had the audacity to vote against consolidation were subject to a fine, which makes one wonder what the purpose of voting for or against consolidation was, since the “referendum” was done under duress.

    I hope Baldacci has lots and lots of time to spend with his family. I hope they monopolize his time until he’s eligible for MaineCare.

  • libertus

    I will assume that King will win and though I am not from Maine, it sounds like a King victory is all but assured. Assuming he wins, it seems to me in a closely divided Senate, he would have more power (and truly be an independent) if he chooses to vote for neither party to be the majority. He would have a lot more credibility if he didn’t commit to either one. No doubt that the Dems hope he will caucus with them, but if he does, he really loses his “independence” that he has cultivated. Although I am no fan of Snowe or Collins, I must hand it to them that they are mighty powerful because they are so unpredictable — which is why Snowe’s critique of “partisanship” made no sense to me since she has been exceptionally powerful as both parties courted her votes.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Three way races are volatile.

    I don’t know how you’re getting that he’s a lock to win.

    King’s entry is the best possible news for Maine Republicans.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    It seems unlikely to me that the Dem line will be vacant.

  • acat

    a Senator is rather limited … IIRC, it’s the parties and the caucuses that set up committee assignments, so if King wants to do something, he has to do some back-scratching first….

    It’s nice to think that a politician can be pure and independent. It’s also nice to think bacon magically appears in the refrigerator.

    Reality, in both cases, is much less attractive.

    Mew

  • libertus

    Much like the excellent current governor’s win, perhaps a GOPer could win in a 3-way. I guess I was buying into the hype that King is massively popular and would walk away with it, especially if it’s a 3 way.

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    Without that independent in the race, the race for Governor would have been pretty dull.

    I’d still say that King is the *favorite*, but assuming a credible Democrat is in the race, the Republican nominee has a legitimate chance.

  • freemanja1991

    the dems can have him if he wins for all i care.

  • nofernsnoquiche

    Without Pingree, Michaud, and Baldacci, I don’t see the Dems putting up anyone with any chance in Maine. Sure, there will be a nominee….but whoever runs will be lucky to get 15%. I remember when King ran for governor the second time, the Dems knew their candidate had no chance and were very concerned that he might get less than 10% (I think that was the number), which would have caused some potential problems in the ability of Dems to get on the ballot as a major party in the next election. (Whatever the number was, it turned out that it was enough….and of course Baldacci became the next governor)

    Another factor in the race is that Eliot Cutler, who came in a very close second to Le Page as an independent candidate for Governor in 2010 has also said he will not run and he has endorsed King.

    King remains very popular here and without a strong Dem candidate, I really don’t see any Republican having a chance this November. Just as no Dem would have had a chance against Snowe if she had run for re-election.

    As to where he will caucus,..clearly it won’t be with the Republicans and I don’t think the Republicans would want him anyway. The only question is whether he will caucus with the Democrats as Lieberman and Bernie Sanders have done. That is the most likely outcome. He is viewed as liberal on social issues and conservative on economic issues.

  • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

    It’s a cliche because it’s true.

  • freemanja1991

    is that the committee you think he will be on?

  • edintexas

    I think Moe is implying that King aligning with the Democrats (a reasonable assumption) would be a help in their keeping control of the Senate. If the Democrats maintain control of the Senate, they get to control the Judiciary Committee, which controls the Advise and Consent role for Judicial nominees – including any potential Supreme Court nominees.

  • steeltube

    This ought to be put into the “be careful for what you wish for” column.

    For those who can’t abide Snowe and Collins it looks like Maine in 2012 will be a repeat of Connecticut in 2006. Except it will be the Dems that field a non-competitive candidate to clear the way for King.

    And I agree—he will caucus with the Dems. So that makes one extra seat to the ones we already needed to win to control the Senate.